Newspoll breakdowns and related matters

The Australian offers geographic and demographic breakdowns of the last two Newspoll surveys, achieving reasonable samples from each subset due to the unusually large samples (around 1700) Newspoll uses during the election period. Age breakdowns offer the interesting finding that Labor has bounced back under Gillard in the 35-49 bracket, but if anything gone backwards among the young and old – or rather, remained stable on the primary vote while the Coalition has picked up a few points. The gender gap is four points on voting intention, seven on Gillard’s approval rating and ten on preferred prime minister, and appears to have widened steadily through the year on Tony Abbott’s approval.

The state breakdowns give us a useful opportunity to confirm their findings with Nielsen, the Fairfax papers having conducted a similar exercise from the three most recent polls (extending it to four for South Australia and Western Australia to boost the sample). I also offer a third measure of what the betting markets think, which involves a rough estimate of the statewide swings suggested by the odds SportingBet and SportsBet are offering on individual seats (more on this subject from occasional Poll Bludger commenter Dr Good). The table shows Labor’s two-party preferred vote:

2007 Newspoll Nielsen Bookies
NSW 53.7% 49% 51% 53%
Vic 54.3% 59% 54% 54%
Qld 50.4% 46% 47% 47%
WA 46.7% 46% 46% 46%
SA 52.4% 56% 51% 53%

Some further (alleged) intelligence courtesy of internal polling:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Liberal polling in NSW has them doing “well” in “about five Labor-held marginal seats”, which include Macquarie and Robertson and to a lesser extent Dobell. The other two presumably include Gilmore, with a fifth harder to identify: the pendulum suggests Bennelong, Eden-Monaro and Page, where in each case the markets favour Labor. However, they Liberals were also said to be in trouble in Hughes and Macarthur. In Queensland, Leichardt and Dawson are said to be at risk, but Labor looks set to hold Longman and Flynn.

• The West Australian reports Nationals polling has Wilson Tuckey leading them in O’Connor by just 51-49, from primary votes of 38 per cent for Tuckey, 23 per cent for Nationals candidate Tony Crook, 21 per cent for Labor and 8 per cent for the Greens, with 10 per cent undecided.

• Markus Mannheim of the Canberra Times reports Liberal polling in the ACT shows the Greens vote actually falling since the 2007 election, which if accurate would put their dream of a Senate seat well beyond reach, if the Democrats’ decision to direct preferences to the Liberals hadn’t done it already.

We’ve had conflicting reports in recent days on party finances and campaign spending:

• Richard Gluyas of The Australian today reports the Liberals are struggling to raise funds. A media-buying source is quoted saying Labor ad spending has been especially conspicuous in the past week, with $19 million in advertising commitments for the length of the campaign splitting “55:45 in favour of Labor”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald, by contrast, reports Liberal television advertising has been 51 per cent more active than Labor’s, “as measured by audience exposure”:

Labor officials wondered aloud where a cash-strapped Liberal Party had managed to find the money, an answer which will not be disclosed officially for a year and a half. And the Liberals were struck by the fact that Labor had all but withdrawn from the advertising market in the second week of the campaign. After an active first week, Labor advertising airtime fell to zero in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, and near zero in Sydney, in week two. Labor continued normal campaign-level advertising only in Brisbane, presumably reflecting the high concentration of at-risk seats in Queensland. In a week in which Labor was taking a hiding in the news media and in the polls, the party decided to stop trying to reach voters with paid advertising as it husbanded its resources. “Labor have obviously come off for a reason,” Mr Durrant said. “I can’t see that it would be because they have run out of money but more likely it is a strategic decision to perhaps blitz the market in the final stretches when people are closer to making a decision, which could be quite smart given how much coverage and PR is being generated by them both.”

I can only say that the the Liberal Party doesn’t seem starved for funds in Western Australia. As well as running highly visible campaigns even in Labor’s safest seats, there is talk the state branch has found $1 million to spare for the national campaign.

So much for what they’re doing with their own money – here’s some of what they have planned for ours.

Petrie (Labor 2.3%): Last week Labor promised to spend $742 million building a fabled rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring. The Liberals responded by bringing forward their own planned announcement that $750 million would be put into the project. This evidently came as news to LNP Petrie candidate Dean Teasdale, whose initial reaction to Labor’s announcement was that this was not the time for such an expensive project. Tony Koch of The Australian notes the rail link has been the subject of fruitless election promises for 40 years, and it was first proposed as far back as the 1890s. The state government dropped plans to build the link six years ago after a study suggested it would be unviable, but last year was reported to be pushing to get the project “shovel ready” so it could be considered for federal funds. It emerged as an issue in the state election last March when Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson flew solo with a promise it would be built by 2016, causing great embarrassment to her party.

Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%), Dawson (Labor 2.4%), Flynn (Labor 2.3%), Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%) and Hinkler (Nationals 1.5%): Queensland’s regional coastal seats were clearly the target of Tony Abbott’s announcement last week that they would limit the future expansion of marine parks, by requiring “peer-reviewed scientific evidence of a threat to marine diversity”. The announcement was made at Mackay in Dawson. Mackay has also been the scene of a bidding war over the construction of a new ring road: Wayne Swan promised $10 million for a feasibility study into a new ring road one week into the campaign, and Tony Abbott trumped him two days later by promising $30 million for design and engineering work.

Hasluck (Labor 1.0%) and Swan (notional Labor 0.3%): Labor last week promised to provide $480 million of $600 million sought by the Western Australian government to improve roads around Perth Airport, which will include widening Tonkin Highway to a six-lane freeway. There was also an as yet uncosted promise to provide funding to an upgrade of 4 kilometres of Great Eastern Highway.

Bass (Labor 1.0%): Last week Labor promised $11.5 million in finding for Launceston’s flood levees as part of the Natural Disaster Resilience Program.

Sturt (Liberal 0.9%) and Makin (Labor 7.7%): The Prime Minister last week announced $100 million in funding for stormwater harvesting and reuse, the first cab off the rank being a $10 million contribution to a pitch for $33 million by councils in eastern Adelaide. With the councils to fund half the cost, this left a $6 million hole which Labor wanted filled by a previously reluctant state government. The next day Tony Abbott trumped Labor by promising to put up the full $16.5 million. The Coalition has also promised $7.5 million to improve Fosters and Gorge roads in Sturt.

Gilmore (notional Labor 0.2%): Late last week Tony Abbott promised $20 million to upgrade a notorious section of the Princes Highway between Ulladulla and Batemans Bay.

Legal action:

• The GetUp!-sponsored legal challenge against the law requiring the electoral roll to close on the day the writs are issued will be heard in the High Court tomorrow. According to the Australin Financial Review, GetUp! will be supported by most of the legal team that acted for Vickie Roach in the 2007 action that overturned a Howard government law prohibiting prisoners from voting.

• A “Tasmanian antique dealer” has launched a legal challenge against Eric Abetz’s right to sit in parliament, arguing he remains a citizen of Germany, from which he emigrated in 1961 at the age of three. Constitutional expert and Labor preselection aspirant George Williams tells The Hobart Mercury there are “numerous pitfalls for any politician born overseas, or whose parents or even grandparents had been born overseas, to fall into, unawares and without intent, which could make them ineligible to sit in Parliament”.

Finally, there has as always been some interesting wash-up from the unveiling of Senate group voting tickets on Sunday, which I have summarised for an article in Crikey. Note the launch of the new awareness-raising website Below the Line, on which voters are encouraged to order and then print out their own Senate “how to vote” card.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,187 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns and related matters”

Comments Page 22 of 24
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  4. Cuppa (1029),

    What can be worse than having a climate change denier in office is having someone who pretends that they believe and does next to nothing (or even tries to prevent later action as would have been the case if the CPRS has passed).

    Who did worse on climate change – Howard or Rudd?

    If Howard had won he would not have been able to get away with Rudd’s failure.

  5. Essential Research on 26 July edition (sampling 20-25 July) asked a question

    [When do you think you will make your decision about which party to vote for?

    51% Already decided
    23% Over the next few weeks during the campaign
    9% At the end of the campaign before election day
    10% On election day
    7% Don’t know]

    Now this is a different sample set (and form of question) than asked by the ANU Electoral Trends Survey, which has asked consistent questions on timing of voting decision at the last 7 federal elections.

    Having said that, the ANU Survey finds an average of 10% decide on the very day of the election. This is the same outcome as the Essential Research. So there could be a consistency.

    What has caught my eye, is that 51% had already decided in the Essential Survey.

    In comparison, 66% on average had decided by the approx. equivalent time in the past 7 years, based on the ANU Survey. (The range was 58% in 1998, up to a whopper 77% in 2007, which was a real outlier – the next highest was 69% in 1996).

    In other words, possibly a lot fewer “decided” votes this time around.

    This suggests the possibility that there is far greater uncertainty of outcome in the 2010 election than any of the previous 7 elections at the equivalent time. This would also be consistent with polls jumping around a lot.

  8. [PPL
    1.5b Mental Health Policy

    2 policies that are very positive though Cuppa to suggest these arent would be hilarious.]

    Glen, three years of unremitting negativity, rage and self-pity, I think, outweighs any few positives they may have dreamed up at the last minute.. The Mental Health policy I wouldn’t trust. Abbotts’ record as Health Minister was taking a billion dollars OUT of public health.

    PPL – I posted to you on this a day or two ago. It’s a grossly unfair proposal because 1) the increase to the cost-of-living burden falls heaviest on those least able to pay AND 2) the benefits of the scheme go disproportionately to those least needing state support.

    Again I’m dubious that they’d even deliver it. Pea-and-thimble trick to con dopey punters. Abbott has in the past spoken out emphatically against paid parental leave. Weathervane or no weathervane I believe he remains opposed to PPL. Women should be at home pregnant as a matter of course, and should certainly not expect welfare for being so.

  9. [Perahelion
    Over 40% of US citizens have this belief.
    Is there hope?]

    Not for Americans anyway, but I never back down, I give the kooks all the barrels. The main one always being, ‘prove it to me’ show me something in the real world ‘show me something real’, or “I want to see it on TV”, because they love watching the Christian Channel. By then I’ve usually had a couple of wines and it’s a real hoot.

  10. Michael, Howard would’ve used three letters: “GFC”.

    I do think we have a better chance overall at an ETS/carbon tax under a Coalition Government though because Labor will be less likely to run a cheap scare campaign against it.

    That doesn’t mean that I’m going to reward the Coalition for their scare campaign and rampant denalism over the past 3 years. I’m also not going to reward the skeptic plotters who overthrew Turnbull’s leadership.

  11. [My tip: Newspoll 53/47
    My tip: Australian Page One Lead: Abbott within striking distance.]

    But the new election commentator at the OO Phoney Tony told us Julia was in deep trouble today.

  12. Michael Wilbur-Ham (MWH)
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 5:17 pm | Permalink

    Ron (995) said:

    “To most Greens incl bob Brown , its 25% non negotaible CC cut”

    that is a fact , and all your lies here do not canmoflage your Greens Party blockin a econamic responsible co2 mitigaton Bill passing in Australia

    BTW , I’ve repeatedly proved before that you do not even understand Garnut’s 3 Reports let alone 4 IPCC science based Reports Your CC knowledge is = to one liners

  14. [HALFWAY through the campaign, Tony Abbott has declared Labor’s re-election bid in “deep trouble”.

    The Opposition Leader, buoyed by a Newspoll in today’s The Australian showing the Coalition trouncing Labor in Queensland and NSW, appears to be increasingly optimistic about his prospects of becoming Australia’s next prime minister.]

    A touch of hubris, and reinforced by the photo they’ve attached to the article.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-election-bid-in-deep-trouble-tony-abbott-declares/story-fn59niix-1225901102179

  16. evan14,

    [Why’s the onus on Rudd to “do the right thing”?
    From this distance, it seems that Labor would prefer that he was completely invisible and not being talked about – Rudd really owes them nothing!]

    The trouble is evan14 we out here in voterland don’t really know the precise facts of Rudd’s removal. All we have is speculation and innuendo to go by. For me, although I was angered and shocked initially, I’ve come to the conclusion that there is more to this whole business than we will ever know,

    Perhaps you are correct that Rudd owes them nothing, but IMO he owes himself a great deal and needs to do what Chinda63 @ 907 suggests. He led his party to victory in 2007 and together with an excellent and talented front bench, achieved much for this nation. He needs now to do whatever he can to help heal the wounds caused to his supporters, to himself and his party.

  18. Burgey

    [gloryconsequence – the “more good news for Labor” wasn’t sarcasm was it?]

    No. But it didn’t come across as a ‘massive shift’ either. Just better news this time. Like I said, make of it what you will.

  19. Confessions Gillard admitted her campaign had failed because she’s now the Real Julia and she has asked for more debates.

    I dont think that is hubris to point out the obvious.

    I did like the photo though lol 😀

  20. [Not for Americans anyway, but I never back down, I give the kooks all the barrels. The main one always being, ‘prove it to me’ show me something in the real world ’show me something real’, or “I want to see it on TV”, because they love watching the Christian Channel. By then I’ve usually had a couple of wines]
    Perahelion
    I am 75% of the way through Richard Dawkins’ “The Greatest Show on Earth”. It’s a very good read. Most libraries will have it but be prepared to go on the waiting list.

  21. jenauthor (1038),

    Unfortunately the last few years have convinced me that Labor stands for nothing except remaining in power.

    You only needed to look at Penny Wong’s expression when Christine Milne was speaking on QandA two weeks ago to realize how hard it would be for her to negotiate with the Greens.

    Pretty much everything Labor has done (or failed to do) over the last few years has proven to me that they never ever intended real action. Labor may still have some spin saying that they are slightly left or progressive, but unfortunately the reality is that in substance there is little difference between Abbott and Gillard.

  26. Why do the Greens oppose planting trees so strongly???

    They hae done a preference deal with Labor before revealing the precise delay that Julia emphatically equated with denial in March.

    I notice the Coalition mentioned planting a hell of a lot of trees. I was in the audience of Q&A on Monday night and saw both Larissa Waters from the Greens and Goose Emerson laugh it off as ‘doing nothing for Climate Change’.

    To use BBs classic phrase.. this is pure Bull Butter.

    I am a Chemist by profession and calculated that if Australia planted (for example) Bamboo in designated plantations, we could forget 5%, 20% or even 25% targets. With 100,000 hectares (the size of one very large cattle station.. or alternatively, 100 smaller properties up the East Coast) of Bamboo, we could sequest ALL of Australia’s Anthropogenically sourced CO2 in the first year and be Carbon negative thereafter.

    Not only this but we have a new sustainable flooring/building industry which could save our native hardwoods (that take 5 times the period to grow the same mass). It would create new, real jobs and cost half the projected cost of an ETS with a Carbon price of $20 a tonne.

    Yeah.. I know, it is a dumb idea… a cap and trade would save the planet.. like European models do….oh, wait a minute…no they are not working… that’s right.

  27. Michael, do you honestly think Senator Milne is the sort of person anyone could negotiate with? She’s an old fashioned idealist. Not to be negotiated with. Her performances on Q&A are always very dull – a contrast to the young greens candidate from Queensland this week who I found far more personable and interesting.

  28. Itep

    you sid you watched Julia’s 7.30 chat , and know you already skeptic about an 150 Assembly and separate oz experts science panel

    3 times Red Ted interrupt Julia trying to say assembly etc a small part of total Labor cc package , before Red Teds interupts part mentioned 1 billion for Solar/wind/thermal grid connectons , coal stations CC & S ready ,and she will ACTUALY lead 150 assembly to conseensus for a carbon price But I partisan was listening close to what Julia actualy said saying this

    Was your take her abov ‘message’ did not get thru if one was undecided on CC commit

  29. Well one clear difference, based on your comments the past few days, is that Labor are prepared to embrace religious diversity in its candidates, whereas the Liberals are prepared to use a person’s religion against them.

    Husic is a “cradle Muslim” when you meet him you’d never know what his religious persuasion. My whole point is that he is just another ALP factional hack candidate foisted on branches that didn’t want him and whose religious background which the Liberal party managed to remind fols about is not a plus in Chfley. He is also a poor campaigner who lost the hardly marginal Greenway in 2004.

    Lest anyone thinks that Adam’s attempt to re-write Greenway’s electoral history earlier in this thread was based on anything but his addled fantasies should read http://www.crikey.com.au/2004/07/28/greenway-to-heaven-and-a-religious-wedge/ (or http://bit.ly/bSTEeP for the long link challenged).

  30. Here’s a hypothetical:

    Let’s suppose Labor never ditched Kevin Rudd, and had called an election
    with the same timing. Would Kevin Rudd’s gall bladder operation have been
    a major problem for his re-election prospects? Would he have stopped
    campaigning for a few days? We’ll never know, of course.

    While on hypotheticals: If the key players who arranged the Julia Gillard
    coup could have peered into an accurate crystal ball to see the current
    scenario, in terms of polls etc, would they have proceeded with
    the coup?

  31. Glen said,

    [If Labor is at or above 40 then you’d be happy as a Laborite.
    If Labor is in the 30s I’d be worried if I were a Laborite.

    Likewise if the Tories are closer to 45 then they’d be feeling good but anything below 40 shocking and in the low 40s not too flash.]

    This is clear, simple and quite correct.

    The last round of polls has seen a shift in the primaries from 41.4 to 40.2, L-NP to ALP, to 44.2 to 36.7, L-NP to ALP.

    This is very significant because it’s the first time the L-NP has broken through the 42 barrier since the 2007 election and it has come almost all at the expense of the ALP.

    The question is, is it a temporary spike or is it a real and lasting shift?

    If it’s the former, then the ALP will grab those votes back and win the election, if it’s the latter then the L-NP will win the election.

    It’s that simple.

  32. Yeah, the photo is somewhat serendipitous. I don’t think Howard would be remarking on his opponent’s campaign being in trouble if he were in Abbott’s shoes though Glen. A slip by Tone.

  33. Does any one remember when Howard tried to bring in a policy that would have had us oldies selling our homes to go to a nursing home and Vanstone said
    ‘you baby boombers get over it your now getting your parents home’ wtte

    then they did away with spot checks and every time i look at madam i think of kerosene

  38. Glen,

    [I think whoever wins this election there is a very good chance that they’ll be defeated at the next one. ]

    That’s the meme that the Libs would like the undecideds to think. That if they just give Tone & Co a crack at Govt for a term, that if they aren’t happy with them, then they can just chuck them out and Labor can see if they can do a better job next time.

    The only problem with that is, is that there would be “no” way that heaven and earth won’t be moved to firmly entrench the rabble into power for as long as is humanly possible to keep them there.

  39. [alias
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 5:47 pm | Permalink
    Here’s a hypothetical:

    Let’s suppose Labor never ditched Kevin Rudd, and had called an election
    with the same timing. Would Kevin Rudd’s gall bladder operation have been
    a major problem for his re-election prospects? Would he have stopped ]

    i have given this some thought for some days now and i think Kevin may have been unwell for some time but would not give in to it

    I truly beleive it was meant to be. we will see i have often looked backwards on my life and seen the forward path so lets hope this is what comes to pass

    things often all work out for the good

  40. [Does anyone know the viewer numbers for Sky News – I read somewhere it was less than 25,000? I could be wildly wrong.]

    i think the take up of pay tv is very low

  41. my say said:

    [micheal you are painfull young man and the liberals did nt do that for 11 years re the tampa etc]

    As I’m over 50, being called a young man made me feel good. Thank you!

    If you could take Labor’s current policies back in a time machine, and having removed party identification, shown them to Labor supporters at the time of the last election, and asked them to identify the party, I’m sure that most would think it was the Liberals under Howard.

    And this would apply to not only asylum seekers but to most other policies as well.

  43. Ron, if you’re asking me whether I was convinced by Gillard’s statements on the Citizen’s Assembly in her 7.30 Report interview, my answer is no.

    The Citizen’s Assembly will do very little, if nothing, to actually create a community consensus for action on climate change. Perhaps a significant proportion of the 150 people will be convinced of the need to act, but how will this filter into the broader community?

    It should be the elected members of Parliament getting out there and talking to people in their electorates about climate change and the need to act; and for the leader of the party to have that conversation with the public and bring them along.

    In my mind, the only and best way to create genuine broad community consensus is by both parties agreeing to a bipartisan policy. This isn’t going to happen for a long time.

  44. [The Fibs really dont like the idea of too many people getting an education do they?]

    No, because the more critical thinking skills people have, and the better their understanding of subjects such as history, economics etc, the less likely they are to be manipulated by Fib lies, spin, brainwashing and rewriting of history.

  46. Peter Martin’s article on the Climate change solution in the age today is worth a read and provides a potential way forward. Interestingly it takes a slightly different take on the citizens assembly rather than the typical negatvie cynical response by most.

  47. [MWH’s seat of Higgins is safe Liberal. He is a Greenie from Liberal stock.]

    Yup – I know Dee, that’s why what he votes for is meaningless.

  48. Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 4:34 pm | Permalink
    [Help!
    I’m on a small Qld island and the only paper is the OO! Not quite true, but you know what I mean, at least I’ve got PB for some reality check!

    Cant believe the MSM have essentially let Tone off the hook with the “no means no” statements. Not a gaffe by the way, but an intentional statement. Gillard would have been fried for this although of course she would never be so stupid. Sam Maiden at the OO should hang her head in shame. Twittering her digust then on CH 9 and in the OO today defending Abbott. What a poor excuse for a so-called journalist.

    I’m interested in how the Downer “things that batter” was protrayed at the time. Did the MSM play it down at the time? Can twitter and the internet keep the no means no spreading despite the MSM?

    And correct me if I’m wrong but NO questions today about the no means no or the ]

    isnt it great to have some one pop in who is optermistic great

  49. [Gillard admitted her campaign had failed because she’s now the Real Julia and she has asked for more debates.]

    She admitted no such thing Glen. You’re taking reporter’s words for Julia’s again.

    Get your facts right, please.

  50. So what do we do if the Murdoch empire are successful with the Rabbott’s campaign & he gets elected???
    We really should rally the labor voters out there to boycott all News Ltd papers even if Gillard falls over the line.
    Start influencing & directing, as ‘my say’ has done, the bloggers to this & other related & independant sites.
    We should all do a ‘dump’ on News Ltd. Go viral on Twitter, Facebook & Youtube.

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