Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Details here. More to follow.

UPDATE: Pardon my tardiness. Newspoll has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, the Coalition up four to 42 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent, all of which conforms better with long-term trends than last week’s result. However, the changes in personal ratings are significant enough to be a worry for Labor: Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down seven to 41 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 37 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 40 per cent and his disapproval down five to 46 per cent, and he has narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister from 57-26 to 50-34.

We also have a 52-48 result this morning from Galaxy, with primary vote figures that differ from Newspoll’s in that Labor is two points lower on 38 per cent and the Greens three points higher on 15 per cent, with the Coalition on 41 per cent. Also this morning comes a Patterson Market Research poll from Eden-Monaro which has Labor with a thumping 61-39 two-party lead from primary votes of 53 per cent for Labor member Mike Kelly, 36 per cent for Liberal candidate 36 per cent and 9 per cent for the Greens. This comes from Patterson’s usual small sample of a bit over 400, resulting in a margin of error of about 5 per cent. Essential Research should be along shortly.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research is unchanged from last week, with Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. As in Newspoll, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are down, approval three points to 49 per cent and disapproval up three to 33 per cent. A move like this in the first week of an election campaign would be a concern for Labor: it’s tempting to link it to “moving forward” overkill. However, Tony Abbott does even worse: approval down five to 35 per cent, disapproval up two to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is basically unchanged, Gillard up one to 51 per cent and Abbott down one to 26 per cent. Also covered are interest in watching the debate, interest in the election generally, and – interestingly – whether Peter Costello would have made a better Liberal leader than Tony Abbott, which gives 45 per cent yes and 26 per cent no.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. There’s a weird story in the Townsville Bulletin about the LNP having billions of money earmarked for renewable energy sources but just want to keep the money to dangle in front of people apparently.

    [The Coalition is yet to state its position on the transmission line scheme although National Party Senator Ron Boswell is claimed to have told northwest Queensland leaders it would be a waste of government money.

    Mr Jones said the Coalition had $3.2 billion “on the table” for renewable and clean energy projects but could not say whether the CopperString project would be supported.

    “I think it’s a great project … it’s a project that’s full of merit but can we do it, I don’t know.”

    Mount Isa to Townsville Economic Zone chairman David Glasson said a joint approach by all parties was needed to make the transmission link a reality.]

    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/07/24/157201_federal_election_2010.html

  2. As I feared, the ALP makes same climate stuff-up twice, gets same result.

    Its now highly questionable that Gillard ascension has improved the ALPs electoral chances. That Galaxy is pretty much exactly where Rudd was. Newspoll too for that matter.

    So much for those primary vote arguments. Nevermind – our system actually works off 2PP anyway. Its still healthy. Abbott to lose, as under Rudd.

  5. [Its now highly questionable that Gillard ascension has improved the ALPs electoral chances. That Galaxy is pretty much exactly where Rudd was. Newspoll too for that matter.]
    Honestly this really is crap. Can you imagine what the debate would have been like if Rudd had still been there? Just think about it. The Libs had the camaign all mapped out against Rudd and it would have had a good chance of success.

  6. I reckon that Galaxy is slightly off too. Depends how they allocate preferences there, but from memory the ‘others’ split pretty even at the last election, and the Greens went at just a bit under 80% Labor. Which comes out at about 53-47.

    Of course, they might ask for preferences. Anyone know?

  10. Coalition PV of 41 is base support really.

    The Coalition cannot win unless it is up near 45% (Lib40Nat5).

    Where is Tone going to get that 4%?

    Greens (15%) LOL good luck
    ALP (38%) LOL top end of base support for them

  11. @Greentard, and what else is new, you gonna buy a big huge greenfield solution to replace the coal power stations? To keep up with energy usages?

  12. Just talking about the numbers, Gary. There’s scant difference on PV or 2PP.

    I wouldnt get too worried: Abbott was never going to beat either Labor leader.

  13. Thats I dont know either Gary – but its the same puzzle we had in the late Rudd era. Some weird shifts between the three major parties happen every time the ALP squibs climate action.

  14. [@marg/98, define do nothing about global warming? just because it doesn’t view a certain population…]

    Take $$$ from dirty big oil,coal,conglomerates to finance their grubby 2PP Club,
    while the environment goes to pieces, Murdoch gets the $$$ and Bob Brown get the cold shoulder.

  15. [@Greentard, and what else is new, you gonna buy a big huge greenfield solution to replace the coal power stations? To keep up with energy usages?]
    All we need is a price of $100 per tonne of CO2 and it becomes uneconomic to generate power using coal.

  17. [Take $$$ from dirty big oil,coal,conglomerates to finance their grubby 2PP Club,
    while the environment goes to pieces, Murdoch gets the $$$ and Bob Brown get the cold shoulder.]

    Shouldn’t you be in bed? You’ve got kindergarten in the morning…

  18. The Galaxy poll says 62% are against Gillard\’s citizen\’s assembly wankery.

    That Online Opinion poll got 62% opposed as well.

  20. So we are sitting around the 52-48 mark, as confirmed by Newspoll and Galaxy.

    As odd as it sounds, I am a bit more comfortable with those numbers…

  21. aren’t these the sort of numbers that Rudd got knifed over?

    Whoever the knuckle heads in the ALP are who seem to think there’s votes to be had in chasing the Coalition to a non policy position on climate change need to get their brains checked.

    The ALP hacks became so totally terrified of fighting for their own policy and arguing their own position because Tony Abbott *might* whip up a fear campaign about it, even though all available polling has suggested the public wants strong action, that they ultimately damaged themselves more by backing away from it than they would have campaigning on the ETS or any other plan.

    At least if the Coalition wins, whichever geniuses are currently advising the ALP into making these stupid moves are going to lose a lot of their influence.

  22. [The Galaxy poll says 62% are against Gillard\’s citizen\’s assembly wankery.]
    I have a solution for you. Vote for Abbott and you won’t have to put up with such wankery, nor a tax on carbon at all in the future.

  23. @marq/114, they already taking money from Miners, if they also take money from big/oil/coal/etc they will do more damage, I would think.

    @Greentard/115, In this climate? Also How would you make sure you don’t screw up the policy like your suggesting like the Mining Tax almost did?

    What people forgetting, is that politicians need to sell this type of policy very clearly, and unfortunately they don’t always do that, and voters who don’t understand policies (especially business owners), will react differently.

    The way that Gillard is doing now, is the best thing to go for.

  25. [So we are sitting around the 52-48 mark, as confirmed by Newspoll and Galaxy.]
    Far more realistic. Labor would not get 55 – 44 in a fit.

  28. Same story as under Rudd. Greens benefit immediately from ALP climate inaction, and ALP primary drops.

    The ALP has to learn to be electoralist again, like they used to be.

    Guys, its REALLY OK to stand up for policies which are POPULAR. Like climate change action.

    Even if (and this is really the key bit, so Ill repeat it, Gillard-like): even if *someone on the other side of politics opposes it*.

  29. “aren’t these the sort of numbers that Rudd got knifed over?”

    if you dont know th diff btween 52/48 with 35% primary , VS now you need politcal education

    fact you lot do not even suport Labor makes youse hypocrits , as well as politcally naive

  33. [Even if (and this is really the key bit, so Ill repeat it, Gillard-like): even if *someone on the other side of politics opposes it*.]
    Right now the Libs are going around talking about the cost of living. Higher prices for this, that and the other. If an ETS was in the offing the GBNT mantra, along with a possible rates rise would be dynamite.

  34. Labor have given up essentially (too hard basket).

    They’ll bleed votes to the Libs (many will think the Citizens’ Assembly is a stupid policy idea) and to the Greens (watch how they use Gillard’s delay is denial against her).

    I said before this is her Medicare Gold moment. I wonder why Tone hasnt drawn the analogy yet???

  35. What makes some of the moves by the ALP all the more stupid is that Labor is bleeding most of it’s support to the left, but instead of moving to create more progressive policies, they seem intent on chasing after Coalition voters, even though the Coalition’s primary vote has remained steady for the past 8 months. Why would these voters vote for Labor trying to be a cheap imitation of the Coalition when they can have the real thing?

    When Gillard took over, the swinging Greens flooded back to Labor on the primary vote, but since then she and the ALP have done their absolute best to undermine their own position, be that on Asylum seekers, climate change, or gay marriage, for absolutely no gain off the Coalition’s primary vote.

  37. [They’ll bleed votes to the Libs (many will think the Citizens’ Assembly is a stupid policy idea) and to the Greens (watch how they use Gillard’s delay is denial against her).]
    I can understand votes going to the Greens over CC, but the Libs? This is fantasy.

  38. Gary@133

    Even if (and this is really the key bit, so Ill repeat it, Gillard-like): even if *someone on the other side of politics opposes it*.

    Right now the Libs are going around talking about the cost of living. Higher prices for this, that and the other. If an ETS was in the offing the GBNT mantra, along with a possible rates rise would be dynamite.

    Exactly, and noticed how he’s now called the Mining Tax, a “Green Tax” ?

    Tofu munchers – get it into your dope addled minds – Carbon Tax now – Bad idea.

  39. Gary it destroys her credibility (it will cost her votes) either to the Libs/Greens.

    It also gives ppl like Barnyard easy soundbite attacks to make on her.

    It was a big error whoever dreamed that policy up.

  40. Let’s not get carried away here, we are talking about one set of polls over one weekend. They also show Labor in a winning position.

  42. [Gary it destroys her credibility (it will cost her votes) either to the Libs/Greens.]
    Be buggered. Even if it were true you don’t think Tone has destroyed his on Workchoices?

  44. [@Gary/122, Voting Abbott you will see nothing not even Wankery policies ]

    The differance between LIB and LAB is small the multinationals own both,

    Follow the money.

    Democracy4Sale

  45. the whole world of govts are good at talking about climate change but none of them are prepared to do anything about it.

  47. [But losing seats.
    Which was my prediction at the outset.]
    So these are the polls for the election Glen, four weeks out?

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