Details here. More to follow.
UPDATE: Pardon my tardiness. Newspoll has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, the Coalition up four to 42 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent, all of which conforms better with long-term trends than last week’s result. However, the changes in personal ratings are significant enough to be a worry for Labor: Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down seven to 41 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 37 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 40 per cent and his disapproval down five to 46 per cent, and he has narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister from 57-26 to 50-34.
We also have a 52-48 result this morning from Galaxy, with primary vote figures that differ from Newspoll’s in that Labor is two points lower on 38 per cent and the Greens three points higher on 15 per cent, with the Coalition on 41 per cent. Also this morning comes a Patterson Market Research poll from Eden-Monaro which has Labor with a thumping 61-39 two-party lead from primary votes of 53 per cent for Labor member Mike Kelly, 36 per cent for Liberal candidate 36 per cent and 9 per cent for the Greens. This comes from Patterson’s usual small sample of a bit over 400, resulting in a margin of error of about 5 per cent. Essential Research should be along shortly.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research is unchanged from last week, with Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. As in Newspoll, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are down, approval three points to 49 per cent and disapproval up three to 33 per cent. A move like this in the first week of an election campaign would be a concern for Labor: it’s tempting to link it to “moving forward” overkill. However, Tony Abbott does even worse: approval down five to 35 per cent, disapproval up two to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is basically unchanged, Gillard up one to 51 per cent and Abbott down one to 26 per cent. Also covered are interest in watching the debate, interest in the election generally, and – interestingly – whether Peter Costello would have made a better Liberal leader than Tony Abbott, which gives 45 per cent yes and 26 per cent no.
52-48, the OO will go crazy.
Surprise, surprise, surprise from Shananana. the honeymoon is over for Jules.
[Coalition gaining ground as Julia Gillard’s rating drops
* Dennis Shanahan, Political editor
* From: The Australian
* July 25, 2010 10:15PM
LABOR has lost its handsome early 10-point two-party preferred vote lead over the Coalition. ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-gaining-ground-as-julia-gillards-rating-drops/story-fn59niix-1225896774195
My God,
52-48. Isn’t that the definition of ‘losing our way’?
Interesting…..
I reckon without having seen the numbers that we are seeing a drift from the ALP to the Greens. I would be surprised if the Liberal primary was up
[But in the latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian last weekend, ]
Last weekend, what a load of rubbish, so much for the wonders of modern technology.
I still dream for a hung parliament which would accurately reflect my dislike of both sides.
But I doubt it.
Gillard will have an easy majority probably.
The point is 55-45 was never a real number
Ohhh it’s the narrowing….at least back to a realistic mrgin.
steve@5
Story written for Dead Tree version which will be on a Monday – How many times must I explain this.
No mention of the primary numbers?
So this is the first reaction to JG climate fudge. Back to same Preferred PM as Rudd. Will bounce back a point or two when everyone gets over the futility of it all.
Glen, if i were you, i will urge your side to concede now to save the tax payers of millions.
What are you folks whinging about? Absolutely nothing in that article is unfair.
So ALP with hope of climate policy=mass lead in polls.
ALP with fudge of cliamte policy = close election
@mexicanbeener
I reckon you are on the money 52-48 sounds about right i bet , ALP down couple Green up a couple and Lib not much change?
All the CC announcements will only hasten the drift to the greens.
The point is Coalition is not infront.
June 24th was our REAL election Finns 🙂 this one is just well a waste of time.
All the polls are saying the same thing
High point is 55-45
Low point is 50-50
Bascially we are looking at a 52.5-47.5 election result
This is not too surprising for we are expecting big swings to the Liberals in Queensland and maybe WA while at the same time SA and Victoria moving towards the ALP. bascially like what we saw in the 1990 election
Three states went towards the ALP and the other three went the other way.
The good folk at the Australian might talk about a narrowing, but the reality is that the 55-45 was always a bit over the top and most likley an outlier. Unless someone wants to put the case that Abbott had such a good week that he closed the gap to 4 points.
Typical Murdoch garbage.
Sooner that rubbish is behind a paywall the better!
So this was taken before the CC policy announcement
[The point is 55-45 was never a real number]
Of course it wasn’t. And nobody said it was.
However, the hacks will use this to justify their rhetoric that Australia luuurves Abbott…
Prepare for an insufferable few days from those who speak from their behinds…
[So ALP with hope of climate policy=mass lead in polls.
ALP with fudge of cliamte policy = close election]
No. Sorry to disappoint the happy clappers in the cult compound, but this is more likely a true depiction of where Labor has been sitting in the last few weeks (55-45, with a deficit in QLD and WA was a bit too hard too swallow)
To be honest I much prefer close polls, 51-49, 50-50…just means election will be exciting and not a walk over…
[To be honest I much prefer close polls, 51-49, 50-50…just means election will be exciting and not a walk over…]
It does avert the “Labor will win anyway, so it doesn’t matter how I vote” mentality…
[To be honest I much prefer close polls, 51-49, 50-50…just means election will be exciting and not a walk over…]
Mmmmm, dunno Dagget. I’d like to see the bad guys get decimated.
Dagget@24
But remember last week’s Newspool was half taken before the announcement of the poll – hence the spike in the number.
Would be interesting to see a breakdown of the numbers pre and post announcement.
[No. Sorry to disappoint the happy clappers in the cult compound, but this is more likely a true depiction of where Labor has been sitting in the last few weeks]
so Tsop, you can read which polls are at the high end of the margin of error and those that are at the low end of the margin of error?
Antony Green’s calculator result:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/
Good point:
everyone knows this election is not about policies, govt competencies, abbott budgies. boat people and the meaning of life etc.
it’s about whether the punters will give the first female PM of this country to strut her stuff in the next 3 years. The indications are yes, yes and yes. Game, Set and Match.
The next election will be Gillard Vs Turnbull. cant wait.
[so Tsop, you can read which polls are at the high end of the margin of error and those that are at the low end of the margin of error?]
No, but I know that a 55-45 poll at this point is too high.
One could arge a close result help keeps the honest, averts the move the extreme for the opposition and complacency for the Govt.
The Finnigans
Posted Sunday, July 25, 2010 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
Think people need to remeber Julia LEADS ladies votes pre Debate , and this how Labor is leading in polls
“Amigo Ronnie, we didnt get Hillarym but got Jules and we will have Jules. and where is that coward Diog has been hiding in the pommy land.”
yep , and all Adams can claim is shaking hands wiith 5 guys , whereas i’ve shooken hands and hugged tonnes of looovely Ladies , i luv Ladies especially Labor ones incl all labor ladies here
So top that Adam
[The next election will be Gillard Vs Turnbull. cant wait.]
And here I was hoping for a Gillard Vs Tuckey match…
These polls are beginning to remind me of the classic Simpsons joke where Mr Burns puts $500 on the end of a piece of string and gets back into his car and orders Smithers to drive when Lisa Simpson tries to pick the money up off the ground and then he starts toying with her by getting the car to stop and start in order to give Lisa hope that she can actually get the money when in reality she can’t because he’s playing a perverse game for his own amusement.
Abbott inspired by this poll will come out all guns blazing this week and he’ll probably say something he shouldn’t which will make the poll go back to Labor again.
Agree Frank – I don’t think Shanahan’s article there tonight is too bad, but the headline “Coalition gains ground” is misleading. I can just about guarantee that if the roles were reversed, the headline would be “Coalition still holds election winning lead”.
But we all know that already. Why do we torture ourselves over it.
[yep , and all Adams can claim is shaking hands wiith 5 guys , whereas i’ve shooken hands and hugged tonnes of looovely Ladies]
Shooken.
Thank you Ron.
[The next election will be Gillard Vs Turnbull.]
I still think that if Turnbull was ever going to lead the Coalition to an election it would have been this one.
[Abbott inspired by this poll will come out all guns blazing this week and he’ll probably say something he shouldn’t which will make the poll go back to Labor again.]
The annoying thing is as far as the commentary goes, a rise in support for Gillard = “Just a rogue, her numbers will drop”
a drop = “Gillard is in deep trouble!”
[One could arge a close result help keeps the honest, averts the move the extreme for the opposition and complacency for the Govt.]
That’s true – I was just being partisan.
If you plug the straight 52/48 into Antony’s calculator — we see a loss of 6 seats (some 4 of which were only notionally Labor because of the new boundaries) so we end up with 81/66 seats (as against 83/64 now) a net loss of 2.
BUT we score Dickson — something I really want!
[I still think that if Turnbull was ever going to lead the Coalition to an election it would have been this one.]
The Libs’ soufflé always rises twice
People who think climate is a vote-flipper, in either direction, are kidding themselves. I wish it was, but it isn’t. People who have strong views on climate, on either side of the debate, are almost always committed to one side of politics or the other. Climate will shift some votes between Labor and Greens, but almost none between Labor and Liberal. The swinging voters are not interested. They find the whole subject arcane and irrelevant.
Although, it is nice not to be at the top end of polling at this point. I’d rather spend the first couple of weeks in the 51-49 range, and then widen the lead to something big in the closing week…
[One could arge a close result help keeps the honest, averts the move the extreme for the opposition and complacency for the Govt.]
It also means Labor has to answer Abbott’s attacks much better and quickly.
[The Libs’ soufflé always rises twice]
😉 Turnbull is the punters’ choice but the Libs rarely elect the punters’ choice because they’re too moderate.
so it was taken last weekend? When the election was being called?
Adam
“The swinging voters are not interested. They find the whole subject (CC) arcane and irrelevant.”
no , I think you mean its not top 3 swing decisions & if they get a tick then CC wont change them
[Turnbull is the punters’ choice but the Libs rarely elect the punters’ choice because they’re too moderate.]
And that is why the Greens won’t ever be a force in the lower house as well as why the Libs are unlikely to limp over the line here.
The electorate, when averaged, is in the centre. That is why CC has been such a hassle — the centre’s answer was hijacked by the extreme right … and the extreme left … and the centre couldn’t fight on both fronts.