Details here. More to follow.
UPDATE: Pardon my tardiness. Newspoll has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 40 per cent, the Coalition up four to 42 per cent and the Greens steady on 12 per cent, all of which conforms better with long-term trends than last week’s result. However, the changes in personal ratings are significant enough to be a worry for Labor: Julia Gillard’s approval rating is down seven to 41 per cent and her disapproval up eight to 37 per cent. Tony Abbott’s approval is up four points to 40 per cent and his disapproval down five to 46 per cent, and he has narrowed the gap on preferred prime minister from 57-26 to 50-34.
We also have a 52-48 result this morning from Galaxy, with primary vote figures that differ from Newspoll’s in that Labor is two points lower on 38 per cent and the Greens three points higher on 15 per cent, with the Coalition on 41 per cent. Also this morning comes a Patterson Market Research poll from Eden-Monaro which has Labor with a thumping 61-39 two-party lead from primary votes of 53 per cent for Labor member Mike Kelly, 36 per cent for Liberal candidate 36 per cent and 9 per cent for the Greens. This comes from Patterson’s usual small sample of a bit over 400, resulting in a margin of error of about 5 per cent. Essential Research should be along shortly.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research is unchanged from last week, with Labor’s two-party lead at 55-45. As in Newspoll, Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are down, approval three points to 49 per cent and disapproval up three to 33 per cent. A move like this in the first week of an election campaign would be a concern for Labor: it’s tempting to link it to “moving forward” overkill. However, Tony Abbott does even worse: approval down five to 35 per cent, disapproval up two to 46 per cent. Preferred prime minister is basically unchanged, Gillard up one to 51 per cent and Abbott down one to 26 per cent. Also covered are interest in watching the debate, interest in the election generally, and – interestingly – whether Peter Costello would have made a better Liberal leader than Tony Abbott, which gives 45 per cent yes and 26 per cent no.
To Speak of Pebbles@48
No, it was taken the weekend just concluded – it says last cos this is the dead tree version of the staory which is posted online.
To say climate change/environment is NOT a swinging voter issue is ludicrous, and the polls will tell you that. As soon as Labor have backed away from such areas, polling has dipped for them and moved to the Greens. I don’t know the primary votes from this Newspoll yet but willing to bet that the Greens are up a few.
@Psephos/44, I consider myself a swinging voter, (voted both Libs/Labor).
But I think anything to do with ETS or Climate change is a bit too soon especially on the economy side of things.
[No, it was taken the weekend just concluded – it says last cos this is the dead tree version of the staory which is posted online.]
Ah, thanks for clearing that up. Sounded odd.
To Speak of Pebbles@54
Dunnoo why Shamaham can’t just write that it was taken between X and y is beyond me.
This centre theme is also why AS is an issue — not so much with the electorate, but the two extreme ends of the scale.
And extremists, of any persuasion, tend to yell the loudest and longest, and aren’t afraid to exaggerate or lie to get their point across.
Newspoll
55/45 last week , i said then w/o quals it was a rogue
Now hope don’t make a gooose , BUT Dennis shanegins did NOT mention Labor or Liberal primary votes , and if Labour still got a 4 in front of it then its MUCH sounder pro Labor Poll then when Kevin had 52/48 with 35% primary
I dunno anybody who seriously believed we were that high. Especially considering our lag in QLD and what not.
People are just arguing a drop in support to support their own partisan interests.
That will be interesting, last 2 newspolls have had labor PVs of 42 after couple of months under 40..
[That will be interesting, last 2 newspolls have had labor PVs of 42 after couple of months under 40..]
Very telling.
Apparently the 2PP vote is all that counts to Shamaham now…
“Labor’s two-party preferred vote is now back to where it was when Mr Rudd was prime minister on the weekend before he was toppled in favour of Ms Gillard.”
How interesting. And in the wake of the exact same climate squib that saw Rudd “lose his way”. I recommend following Rudd’s lead and pushing parental leave nad NBN at this point. Worked for him – he was getting a nice boost off those before the knifing.
Anyway, its really 52.7-47.3 (tricky Newspoll rounding) but nonetheless, QLD looking more important now.
Perhaps Gillard should look up her old pal Kev to do some campaigning up north! 🙂
Imagine what the polling would show if the Queensland LNP began sending their election material to people instead of dead dogs.
[QUEENSLAND’S Liberal National Party appears desperate for votes in the federal poll after being caught out sending election material to a dead dog.
A shocked Brisbane woman received a campaign letter addressed to her deceased canine three days after using the animal’s name on a computer course.
The course was done at work, leading to questions as to how parties are accessing voters’ private information.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/dead-dog-sent-2010-federal-election-material-by-liberal-national-party/story-fn5z3z83-1225896487279
Opps, it isnt really 52.7-47.3. I misread that.
Its just 52-48.
[Very telling.
Apparently the 2PP vote is all that counts to Shamaham now…]
Ignore that last post, I was looking at previous figures…
Wht I really want to see is the Coal PV, this has been seadily falling from 43% in April to now 38% more pronounced trend than the ALP vote, if this starts going up then something is going on.
We’ll know the primaries some time after midnight, so everyone should watch le TIur while we’re waiting.
52-48 is probably a more realistic number than 55-45, considering that Julia really hasn’t pulled out any of her policy big guns yet & Abbott has blown all his fire power in the first week.
It could not be said that I am uninterested in politics.
Guess what took my primary interest?
Masterchef.
Speaks litres.
Not to mention that the alternative TV is hooked to a Foxtel SD box and does not (weirdly) let me pick up the HD 24/7 news (yawn) unless, I suppose I switch it off Fox and back to the TV broadcast. Haven’t tried that yet, for fear of total stuff up.
Taa, ABC. High Deaf.
Now that Masterchef and AFL are finished, could risk it, I guess.
Which does not mean to say that I did not watch the final fifteen minutes of the debate, on the other TV.
Wow….
…
..
.
zzz
52 – 48, still a healthy position.
Lefty I’m sure when the PM wants your advice she’ll ask for it.
*exeunt omnes*
Gary@69
Especially as Last Week’s Newspoll was clouded by polling taking place both pre and post the Election announcement – I reckon there was a spike as soon as the election was called – hence the 55-45.
Frank, If there was a spike what has happened since last week to bring about a shift away from Labor?
52 – 48 back to normality then
52/48 will do me. Hopefully the primary still has a 4 in front of it.
Tom Hawkins@72
Dunno, but maybe boredom and the inital excitement of the poll subsiding.
i think 52-48 will become a pretty consistent figure throughout very similar to 2007 result
Speaking of Masterchef: Adam is a deserving winner, I think I’d have thrown a rock through my TV if they’d rigged it for Callum. 😉
Channel 9 worm verdict:
Gillard 67%
Phoney 33%
Abbott of course thinks the worm hates Liberals. 😀
She only has to call, Psephos. 🙂
Anyway, seems like a normal result – exactly the same as Kevin had.
maybe we can enrol some worms as voters
Labors PV appears to be 42
wont labor get all greens preferences too?
briefly@81
Where did you get that from ? OO article hasn’t been updated.
Lasted from the LNP tease show in the Gladstone area.
[ IT seems Gladstone region voters are being fed breadcrumbs to lead them to the bakery shop in terms of Liberal National Party announcements and policies.
The LNP Queensland Senate team, in visiting Gladstone yesterday, would not give exact times as to when LNP policies would be put on the table for voters to digest, but they spoke of funding announcements that have already been made during this election campaign and some yet to come for the region.]
http://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/story/2010/07/24/where-are-the-policies/
maybe briefly is getting briefed as we speak
evan14
I thought i was much closer than 67 v 33. More like 52 v 48 oddly enough. It was very uninspiring to say the least. Both were so careful that their personalities disappeared. It was the dullest leaders debate I can recall.
Also it should be noted Poss did say the last Newspoll was overcooked for Labor:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/07/19/newspoll-and-more-gender-gaps/
there does seem to be a lack of new policies at the moment compared with 2007
The three journalists nobbled the debate by re-working Lib talking points on scary brown asylum seekers and scary immigrants choking our cities. Questions on health, education, skills training, infrastructure, housing and transport were hardly mentioned. A victory for those who gave the riding instructions those hacks posing as independent minded journalists.
If Labor’s PV is 42, surely that means the Greens vote has dropped then? Unless ‘Others’ has fallen right away. If Others is around 4-5, then Greens should be around 9-10. Something in that region. But that pushes the Coalition up around 45, which I simply can’t believe.
Something’s not right there. Labor having 52-48 off a PV of 42 doesn’t work for me at all.
Yes, rather uninspiring debate – Julia was slightly disappointing(Rudd was better in 2007), but she at least was positive.
Abbott on the other hand was largely negative and slogan-driven.
Another debate with greater concentration on the areas of health, education, social policy would be welcomed by me, because I’m thoroughly sick of the whole boat people issue.
We have a Galaxy:
Galaxy Poll
Primary:
ALP 38
LIB 41
Greens 15
2PP:
ALP 52
LIB 48
http://bit.ly/cXyLyu
Another case of Barnyard and his friends trying to muddy the Federal election by spruiking state issues in Rockhampton.
http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/story/2010/07/24/lnp-wades-into-city-super-dump-furore/
Laura Tingle asked some intelligent questions, but the other two were the predictable Liberal stooges. 😉
So the people who shift to the Greens from Labor because they don’t like Labor’s stance on CC are going to preference Abbott? Come off it Mr Briggs.
I thought the debate was to be about policy differences. The question from Uhlmann regarding Rudd was IMO out of order. Once Gillard concluded her response Speers then gave Abbott a chance to comment. Where was the balance in that?
ALP do nothing about global warming has pushed the green vote through the roof
Has Abbott effectively fired all of his bullets in the first week?
What’s he got left to announce?
Taking the dole off the under 30s?
At any rate, I still think the best thing to do is take a combined average of all the polls coming in. That has Labor somewhere between 53 and 54, which feels about right given the way things are going at the moment.
There seems to be a big push for this “neither side is offering anything, so it doesn’t matter who you vote for” idea in the media at the moment. Personally, I think it’s pretty easy to distinguish the two major parties. Even on asylum seekers, where we’re told they’re almost identical, one side is talking about regional cooperation, while the other is saying dump ’em on Nauru and turn the boats around. One side is making announcements – just bits and pieces here and there, but they’re starting to add up – while the other is repeating broad statements about what they won’t do.
I think there is some media push to make them both seem vanilla. That will continue until such point (if it happens) where Gillard makes a gaffe. Then suddenly both sides will be portrayed as miles apart on everything.
You’ll know when she makes a gaffe. They’ll stop saying ‘gaffe’ and start saying ‘fiasco’ or ‘disaster’.