Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)

Roy Morgan has again rained on Julia Gillard’s poll parade, with a poll of 800 voters in four Queensland marginals showing Labor no better placed than they were said to be before Kevin Rudd’s demise. The four seats targeted are outer suburban Longman and regional Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt, and if by some coincidence the figures for each are accurate – which is unlikely, as the margin of error on each 200-sample poll is about 7 per cent – Labor stands to lose all except the latter with respective swings of 7.3 per cent, 8.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, with no change recorded in Longman. However, it would be more instructive to combine the results and think in terms of a collective swing of a bit below 5 per cent and a margin of error of 3.5 per cent. If consistent across Queensland, this would cost Labor eight seats held actually and two held notionally. Helpfully, three of these seats were covered in Newspoll’s marginal seat survey of Tuesday before last, conducted during Kevin Rudd’s last weekend as Prime Minister, the exception being Leichhardt. This showed a 6 per cent swing from a margin of error of 4 per cent. Presumably Morgan will offer a face-to-face poll from last weekend tomorrow, the first such poll conducted on Gillard’s watch.

There is better news for Labor from The Advertiser, which has Labor leading 56-44 in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, held for Labor on a margin of 5.1 per cent. The survey involved 633 respondents and would have a margin of error of a little below 4 per cent, although this presumes a random sample which The Advertiser probably lacks the expertise to obtain.

Federal preselection news:

• The Socialist Left faction of the Victorian ALP, which dominates the local branches, has chosen ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell as its candidate for the federal preselection for Melbourne, to be vacated on the retirement of Lindsay Tanner. The faction’s secretary, Andrew Giles, had been favoured by some for the position, but agreed to stand aside in favour of Bowtell, whose endorsement is now considered a fait accompli. The preselection will be conducted locally on Sunday and finalised by the party’s public office selection committee on Tuesday.

• Queensland’s troubled Liberal National Party has picked a new candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Labor’s Graham Perrett won from sitting Liberal Gary Hardgrave in 2007, after the original nominee, Michael Palmer (20-year-old son of mining magnate Clive), withdrew citing health concerns. The winner was Malcolm Cole, former Courier-Mail journalist and staffer to former Senator Santo Santoro, who defeated local businessman Steve Smith.

• It’s been noted lately that the New South Wales Liberals are dragging their heels getting candidates in place in important electorates: Lindsay, Parramatta and Greenway. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, these will be resolved over the next fortnight. The Penrith Press reports two candidates have nominated in Lindsay: marketing manager Fiona Scott and casual teacher Margaret Grand.

State preselection news from New South Wales:

• The Nationals’ ground-breaking “open primary” preselection for Tamworth was conducted last weekend, delivering victory to local businessman Kevin Anderson. The ballot was open to anyone registered in the electorate, attracting 4293 voters. Anderson won 2110 vote (49.4 per cent) to 1100 (25.7 per cent) for James Treloar, 648 (15.2 per cent) for Russell Webb and 414 (9.7 per cent) for Mark Rodda, with the distribution of Rodda’s preferences electing Anderson. A similar effort by the Victorian ALP in the Liberal-held state seat of Kilsyth in April only attracted 170, although the only procedural difference was a requirement that participants register online. The winner on that occasion was former electorate officer Vicky Setches with 75 per cent of the vote.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal preselection for the safe Liberal NSW state seat of Baulkham Hills, to be vacated at the election by retiring Wayne Merton, has been postponed after originally being scheduled for tomorrow. The preselection is the latest front in the war between state upper house MP David Clarke and federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, former allies in the Right. At issue is the validity of the membership of 14 Clarke supporters who attempted to join at an infamous Baulkham Hills Young Liberals meeting in Hawke’s electorate office last year, which ended with Hawke calling the police. The Hawke forces are backing state Civil Contractors Federation chief executive David Elliott, who unsuccessfully challenged Clarke for his upper house preselection earlier this year. Clarke supports Damien Tudehope, solicitor and Australian Family Association spokesman Damien Tudehope. Also in the field is Hills Shire deputy mayor Mike Thomas. It appears the preselection will be postponed until the federal election is out of the way, in the likely event that it is called shortly.

• Greens state upper house MP Sylvia Hale, who earlier made what most presumed to be a retirement announcement when she said she would not seek re-election, has announced she will seek to run in the highly winnable lower house seat of Marrickville. She must first win next week’s preselection vote against Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne, the candidate from 2007.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours reports Peter Fraser, former chief-of-staff to John Brogden, might emerge as a starter in the endlessly confusing preselection to choose a successor to Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. The remainder of the field is summarised as “Left numbers woman Gabrielle Upton, independent restaurateur Peter Doyle, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Turnbull branch fixture Mary Lou Jarvis and Sydney gymnasium tycoon and right-winger Peter Cavanagh”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

666 comments on “Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)”

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  1. I feel like I’ve been Boganed!
    Hey Glen the new flag will have a Bogan moth sitting in a Boganvillea tree. 😛

    All this Kev bashing is getting old. Enough to turn a girl ??? hmm but where to turn???
    and don’t you love the smell of burnt budgies in the morning 😀

  2. More marginal seat polling from Morgan. 11.6 per cent swing to the Liberals in Macarthur, which has a 0.1 per cent post-redistribution Labor margin. 1.6 per cent swing to the Liberals in Robertson, held by Labor with 0.1 per cent margin. On the other hand, a 6.7 per cent swing to Labor in Eden-Monaro and 10.4 per cent swing in Macquarie. In WA, a 1.0 per cent swing to Liberal in Hasluck, putting the Liberals just in front. Swings to Liberal of 1.6 per cent and 1.1 per cent in Brand and Perth and to Labor of 2.8 per cent in Fremantle, leaving all safe for Labor. In Victoria, 4.6 per cent swing to Labor in Corangamite. In SA, 1.4 per cent swing to Labor in Hindmarsh. In Tasmania, 11.5 per cent swing to Labor in Bass.

  3. [Claire our daughter who cried as much as me said to day Mum did you notice how
    Julia included martin Ferguson this morning…]

    I thought the same thing, the PM was giving a press conference with two ministers. The PM let the minister with carriage of the area the question related to answer. It was not the PM giving a presser with the ministers in “support” it was a joint effort.

    I have not seen this since Hawke.

  4. Is that Macarther the one that Farmer is leaving? That would explain the double figures, perhaps. Apart from that, Possum’s Post Partum Volatility Dictum looks alive and well.

  5. [hence the results being all over the shop.]
    Were they ever!
    For heaven’s sake – with a sample size like that we may as well rely on scorp’s ersthile efforts.

  6. [Love it how Big Business comes out whingeing NOW about the loss of the compay tax deduction.]

    i thought they only lost one percent.

    winging wining people is nt any one ever happy.

    Well lets all be happy here and send the good positive vibes out in to the community
    as i said to Vera today my daughter did not know who martin Ferguson was now really
    that was not good enough she pointed out that the appropriate minister where not getting their due.

    Any way i digress out an about over the week end i will be saying isnt julia beautiful
    ( and i happen to thin she is in spirit and looks and personality) arent we lucky to have a woman pm and isnt she beautiful and that smile i actully thought she looked like royalty this morning.
    etc etc she makes you feel brand new just joking there is a song in there finns.

    Any be positive go forward over the week end smile and let the world know who you will vote for and why.
    sorry this is all over the place but get what i mean

  7. So Morgan wants us to believe there is a 10% swing TO Labor on one side of Sydney, and a 10% swing AGAINST Labor on the other side of Sydney, both in seats with no sitting member. And an 11% swing to Labor in Bass? This is not conspiracy theory territory, this is men in white coats territory.

  8. [Love it how Big Business comes out whingeing NOW about the loss of the compay tax deduction.]
    If they don’t like 30% to 29% they certainly won’t like 30% to 31.7%.
    Let’s hope they don’t remain so silent on this one.

  9. [Tasmania, 11.5 per cent swing to Labor in Bass.[]

    i love it but its odd its been held by labor for some time jodie campbell is leaving and i did hear who is taking her place but now sure.

    and nothing out of the ordinary has happened latley,.

    so 200 people being ask ?? must be all over the show.

    and this is before the rspt settlement.

  10. Boerwar

    You really will need to come up with some reason to doubt the sanity of the XPM. Maybe you can come up with some psychological drama describing the feverish atmosphere in the Rudd bunker as the Gillard tanks were rumbling through the courtyards ……

    All you need now is him poisoning Jasper the Cat to see if it would work…

  11. William I presume the methodology used for these individual seat polls is not the same as the methodology used during the last election which (from memory) showed the Libs losing Curtin.

  12. [And an 11% swing to Labor in Bass? This is not conspiracy theory territory, this is men in white coats territory.]

    as i just posted above odd with such a small sample its l like if i am out and dont answer my phone and then he ring x and they say liberal but if i answered the phone i would of said labor.

    william can tell me i made but this small sample seems funny why bother would it not be better to do it better mmm

  13. [If that is reflected across Qld, then expect no change for the Greens in the Senate from here.]
    Greens are polling around 10% in Qld, so there’s no reason to think that Capricornia is representative. Or do you prefer your prejudices to data?

  14. b
    Have to go off for dinner. I agree that so far I am the only one who has expressed the thought and that I don’t have a skerrick of evidence – other than that his lack of contact with the people on his side was a serious entrail for chicken entrail watchers.

  15. [The new Labor candidate in Bass is Geoff Lyons.]

    walk it in but a few weeks ago i went through pm Lyons birth place home and got a bit crabby about his politics re labor

    but one of you learned gentleman can tell me the history i know i should know but its
    not talked about that much here of course his son or grand son Kevin Lyons formed another party some years ago and as i was not that old then did not take a big interest but i know it went pear shape

    But the name lyons in Tasmania means something so should be fine.

  16. What’s the population of an electorate? Say, 100,000 for argument’s sake? How is it that a poll of 200 out of 100,000 (ie one in 5000) is more unreliable than national polls with their sample sizes of around 1,200 (1,200 out of 21,000,000 national population, or one in 17,500)?

  17. This type of marginal seat polling happens at every election and from what I have observed is not a good way to try and determine who will win. You need the TPP for that.

    But it does look as if there are going to be some wild swings this time around.

  18. Morgan has targeted four seats in NSW, Queensland and WA, which is perfectly reasonable. It’s much as Newspoll did with their Queensland marginal seats poll last week. Individually the results are useless, but if you add each state’s results together you get a MoE of 3.5% and a useful overall picture. This suggests a 1 per cent swing to Labor in NSW, 0.2 per cent swing to Liberal in WA and 4.75 per cent swing to LNP in Queensland. Picking one seat each from Victoria, SA and Tasmania to round it out was, in my opinion, a less good idea. But for what it’s worth, there’s swings to Labor in each.

  19. 623

    [Any relation?]

    i would bet you apples to pears he is or its more cherries and salmon these days

    off now see you all i think we are all feeling a lot better now i hope bb is soon and vera
    it has been very hard for our son who is overseas i think you have to be here to understand

  20. Hi Boerwar, did you see that big Dung Beetle in the opening ceremony of the World Cup? They breed ’em big in South Africa!

    My say
    No crying here just lots of disgust and can’t believe all the excuses being made by Labor folk to cover their Rudd bashing.

  21. CQ WIN TV phone poll: “Do you trust Julia Gillard” yes 7%…..no 93%. LOL

    LNP candidate says, she doesn’t trust her either, she stabbed her colleague in the back!

    Looks like Capricornia is in the bag for the LNP! lol 😉

  22. [William I presume the methodology used for these individual seat polls is not the same as the methodology used during the last election which (from memory) showed the Libs losing Curtin.]

    Yes – on that occasion they were compiling results from about a year’s worth of face-to-face polling. These ones were good old-fashioned phone polls conducted from Saturday to Thursday.

  23. Kevin Lyons was elected to the House of Assembly in 1969 for the Centre Party, which was a front for the Country Party. He found himself with the balance of power in a hung parliament and supported Liberal Premier Angus Bethune, the first non-Labor premier since 1934. Lyons was Deputy Premier. The Lib government was heavily defeated in 1972 and Lyons retired.

  24. [Love it how Big Business comes out whingeing NOW about the loss of the compay tax deduction.]
    And “Do you trust Tony Abbott?”

  25. [was, in my opinion, a less good idea. But for what it’s worth, there’s swings to Labor in each.]

    now you are a sweetie now can enjoy my evening and week end and think positive.

    hope you all do well in your footy tipping.

    i dont do it but i give advice but oh never listens though

  26. Labor will hold the FNQ seat of Liechardt, local member Jim Turnour came out with texts, promising to support Rudd, the locals here are mistrustful of Gillard The Greens will Poll 14% in Liechardt and 5% in Capricornia, which of course will remain firmly LNP, However….nationally (a quote of mine last week from Pollytics)

    Posted June 26, 2010 at 2:37 pm | Permalink

    The Green polling will come back to Gillard until she drops the mining tax to 22% then it’ll swing back to 14% for the Greens once the election is called, …

  27. I’m just watching a recording of the excellent ABC program “Addiction”. In it there is a 30 year alcohol and weed addict who has just said that he was abused by a Marist Brother who was convicted but received no sentence.
    I want to SCREAM!!!!!!

  28. [Morgan doing polls of 200 is simply idiotic.]
    Not if you want a bunch of results all over the place and a pretext to sprout your own views on anything.

  29. [Not if you want a bunch of results all over the place and a pretext to sprout your own views on anything.]
    Pick a card – any card!

  30. How come Morgan can call more poeple in his marginal seat stuff than in his special Morgan/7News poll?

    He only managed 600 for that one. His tax rant is off with the pixies stuff. Weird is an understatement.

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