Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)

Roy Morgan has again rained on Julia Gillard’s poll parade, with a poll of 800 voters in four Queensland marginals showing Labor no better placed than they were said to be before Kevin Rudd’s demise. The four seats targeted are outer suburban Longman and regional Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt, and if by some coincidence the figures for each are accurate – which is unlikely, as the margin of error on each 200-sample poll is about 7 per cent – Labor stands to lose all except the latter with respective swings of 7.3 per cent, 8.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, with no change recorded in Longman. However, it would be more instructive to combine the results and think in terms of a collective swing of a bit below 5 per cent and a margin of error of 3.5 per cent. If consistent across Queensland, this would cost Labor eight seats held actually and two held notionally. Helpfully, three of these seats were covered in Newspoll’s marginal seat survey of Tuesday before last, conducted during Kevin Rudd’s last weekend as Prime Minister, the exception being Leichhardt. This showed a 6 per cent swing from a margin of error of 4 per cent. Presumably Morgan will offer a face-to-face poll from last weekend tomorrow, the first such poll conducted on Gillard’s watch.

There is better news for Labor from The Advertiser, which has Labor leading 56-44 in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, held for Labor on a margin of 5.1 per cent. The survey involved 633 respondents and would have a margin of error of a little below 4 per cent, although this presumes a random sample which The Advertiser probably lacks the expertise to obtain.

Federal preselection news:

• The Socialist Left faction of the Victorian ALP, which dominates the local branches, has chosen ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell as its candidate for the federal preselection for Melbourne, to be vacated on the retirement of Lindsay Tanner. The faction’s secretary, Andrew Giles, had been favoured by some for the position, but agreed to stand aside in favour of Bowtell, whose endorsement is now considered a fait accompli. The preselection will be conducted locally on Sunday and finalised by the party’s public office selection committee on Tuesday.

• Queensland’s troubled Liberal National Party has picked a new candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Labor’s Graham Perrett won from sitting Liberal Gary Hardgrave in 2007, after the original nominee, Michael Palmer (20-year-old son of mining magnate Clive), withdrew citing health concerns. The winner was Malcolm Cole, former Courier-Mail journalist and staffer to former Senator Santo Santoro, who defeated local businessman Steve Smith.

• It’s been noted lately that the New South Wales Liberals are dragging their heels getting candidates in place in important electorates: Lindsay, Parramatta and Greenway. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, these will be resolved over the next fortnight. The Penrith Press reports two candidates have nominated in Lindsay: marketing manager Fiona Scott and casual teacher Margaret Grand.

State preselection news from New South Wales:

• The Nationals’ ground-breaking “open primary” preselection for Tamworth was conducted last weekend, delivering victory to local businessman Kevin Anderson. The ballot was open to anyone registered in the electorate, attracting 4293 voters. Anderson won 2110 vote (49.4 per cent) to 1100 (25.7 per cent) for James Treloar, 648 (15.2 per cent) for Russell Webb and 414 (9.7 per cent) for Mark Rodda, with the distribution of Rodda’s preferences electing Anderson. A similar effort by the Victorian ALP in the Liberal-held state seat of Kilsyth in April only attracted 170, although the only procedural difference was a requirement that participants register online. The winner on that occasion was former electorate officer Vicky Setches with 75 per cent of the vote.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal preselection for the safe Liberal NSW state seat of Baulkham Hills, to be vacated at the election by retiring Wayne Merton, has been postponed after originally being scheduled for tomorrow. The preselection is the latest front in the war between state upper house MP David Clarke and federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, former allies in the Right. At issue is the validity of the membership of 14 Clarke supporters who attempted to join at an infamous Baulkham Hills Young Liberals meeting in Hawke’s electorate office last year, which ended with Hawke calling the police. The Hawke forces are backing state Civil Contractors Federation chief executive David Elliott, who unsuccessfully challenged Clarke for his upper house preselection earlier this year. Clarke supports Damien Tudehope, solicitor and Australian Family Association spokesman Damien Tudehope. Also in the field is Hills Shire deputy mayor Mike Thomas. It appears the preselection will be postponed until the federal election is out of the way, in the likely event that it is called shortly.

• Greens state upper house MP Sylvia Hale, who earlier made what most presumed to be a retirement announcement when she said she would not seek re-election, has announced she will seek to run in the highly winnable lower house seat of Marrickville. She must first win next week’s preselection vote against Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne, the candidate from 2007.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours reports Peter Fraser, former chief-of-staff to John Brogden, might emerge as a starter in the endlessly confusing preselection to choose a successor to Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. The remainder of the field is summarised as “Left numbers woman Gabrielle Upton, independent restaurateur Peter Doyle, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Turnbull branch fixture Mary Lou Jarvis and Sydney gymnasium tycoon and right-winger Peter Cavanagh”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

666 comments on “Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)”

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  1. Interesting to see how the three major newspapers, The Australian, the SMH, and The Age, are headlining the yet to be announced RSPT deal between the Government and the Miners (as at circa 3:20 AEST). In descending order of positivity:

    The Australian – ‘PM’s mining breakthrough’

    The SMH – ‘PM salvages deal with big miners’

    The Age – ‘Gillard bows to mining giants on tax’

    What I find especially interesting is the phrasing of the poll in The Age for a yet to be released announcement, :

    ‘Was the federal government right to give ground over the resources super profits tax?’

  2. First of all William, I am disappointed to have been snipped. I can’t remember which post, could have been “mighty machine men”, which is a reference to what is going on here; highly relevant I would say. If management doesn’t understand something, just ask, otherwise you look like censors. You allowed some foul language from other posters without snipping. I did not do that. Why the snip? You said that you don’t care about my opinions, maybe you do. Are you corrupt?

    Second, I do not pay too much attention to the poll figures you guys quote and the inferences you derive. I post on a different basis. I don’t know how many people can be tricked in political campaigns but I think many here do. Last game fellas!

    I vote on what is presented to me, having faith that a few of the rabble are there for the right reason – AUSTRALIAN QUALITY OF LIFE.

    Pretty quiet here, I think the readers have figured out the game. We are not going to be happy in future to see more attempted brainwashing and polarising. I really enjoy chatting to others about the issues that we vote on, especially when the conversation pulls away from political unknowns and obscure stats. Some posters want their posts to mean nothing significant, but still have an effect.

    The thread runs very quickly at times, and it is hard for a human to keep up with the entire chat. Beware of distractions readers.

    Polyquads – my apologies, I didn’t address the salt issue. It could be uranium salt for all I know. I am wrong – the greens and nationals knocked it back. The methane would not be an issue, and to claim that it is an asphyxiation risk is laughable. Sack any engineer that creates a situation where CH4 is an asphyxiation or explosive risk for people. Salt is a different issue entirely, one that I am not qualified to comment on. What kind of salt is it? What does it do? This is a good place to dumb things down.

    The discussion should have been between us, not with astro who is obviously not well versed on science. I will always fall on the side of logic and science.

    Like I said, the thread ran quickly, so I failed to address this point at the time. I have since checked my facts.

    I am not embarrassed – I am trying to weed out spinners and fight the labor rustys. If I am spinning, flame me. I am rusted to Kev. If no Kev, then green is my choice, others will pick the libs. Either way, labor will lose its outer shell and be unelectable if Kev is not leader. A party with unionists in control will stifle innovation, imagination and creativity. Unions need to win my confidence here, but I doubt that they have it in them. You wouldn’t want to think differently within a union would you? You would get a punch in the face.

    I have no loyalty to labor, only Kev. Deal with it.

    Rusted labor (or are they?) have been incredibly rude towards those like Thomas Paine and others. I like them are happy to support labor with good leadership, but my vote evaporates when that situation is changed. A liberal government is not my desire.

    Loyalty. Funny how you must be loyal to the party, or your a lib conspirator, but loyalty to a popular (believe me now?) and an effective PM is not.

    The alp is low on brains, with the exception of a few. Anthony Albanese, I hope that it is true that you wanted Kev. I have a feeling that it is, because I think Anthony is (was?) in a dream job. I was even a little envious. Lindsay might also be a champ!

    Julia G – Education policy and napland. Looks badly planned. How can you make a judgement on a teachers performance with data from tests if it is not correlated with geographic data relating to the surrounding community? If it does do this, it is the first that I have heard. Otherwise, completely flawed, complete waste of time and money. Very bad for teachers, students and Australia. I bet not many kevprints on this policy.

    You’re a lawyer, not a mathematician. Accuracy to you is less important than a win.

    Trouble with that attitude is that it is LAZY and leads to BAD OUTCOMES for the electorate. I would not like you as my boss, or my leader. I think that you are bad at policy.

    Kev was probably doing the work of two men in keeping labor ungratefuls in office.

    At least I have faith in this new system of input which will surely weed out all the crooks in time, once people understand it. Just watch this space…

  3. Scarpat- Gillard and Abbott bow to the big miners. Kev bows to us, and looks like he was ready to shake hands with some in the mining industry who respected his mandate.

    Smaller miners were unhappy last night. Too hard to talk to everyone isn’t it?

    Not hard if people trust you.

  4. [ Advertiser poll has Labor 56-44 ahead in Hindmarsh

    They’re proud as punch to have one of their own recognised for something other than multiple homicide.]

    We don’t actually think of Gillard as a South Australian, although she was born here. Julia Bishop and Therese Rein were as well and we don’t think of either of them as South Aussies either.

    I don’t want to sound precious but out of respect for Judith Barnes, who was a long-time poster here, we don’t refer to the serial killings in SA on PB as she was the mother of one of the victims.

  5. Will it be a cave-in or a compromise? As Grattan says in the article, it all depends on how much less than $12B they are getting from the miners. Remember that this is/was a Swan policy. Anything less than $10B shows Swan handed his testicles to Gillard and the miners in exchange for becoming deputy PM.

    [THE details leaking out last night suggest the miners have twisted the government’s arm a long way.

    If the deal announced this morning is far removed from where the government started when it announced its new resource tax, the big test of Julia Gillard’s political skills will be whether it is seen as a ”compromise” or a ”backflip”.]

  6. William, minor correction to the above. It looks like Kevin Anderson got 49.4% in the Tamworth primary, not 29.4% as the post states.

  7. Last comment – I don’t think that anyone would doubt that John Howard is an excellent advocate for cricket. But he left a bad taste in the mouth for many including me.

    Cheers all!

  8. Either Morgan has lost all credibility or Julia has somethuing to worry about in Queensland. I think it is probably the former.

  9. I think Julia’s next priority should be to look for Russian sleeper spies in cities and regional towns across Australia. It would be exponentially more interesting than a mining tax discussion.

  10. They finally mentioned the war. John Howard was a divisive figure when he was PM. He is still a divisive figure in the world of Cricket. He has been caught and OUT. He should take his bat and go home.

    [Race row threatens to split ICC as Pawar takes over – NEW DELHI: Sharad Pawar on Thursday became only the second Indian to take over as International Cricket Council (ICC) president. But there was no time for celebration. Instead, he walked straight into a raging controversy that threatens to split the sport’s world body down the middle on racial and political lines, following the rejection of former Australian prime minister John Howard’s nomination for the ICC vice-president’s post. ]


  11. I think it’s probably a bit of both blue_green. Labor had something to worry about in Queensland under Kevin Rudd and it’s probably going to be very messy there come election night. That being said they have an election campaign and Tony Abbott still there which could work in their favour.

  12. [Another backflip, or sweet reason? – THE details leaking out last night suggest the miners have twisted the government’s arm a long way.

    If the deal announced this morning is far removed from where the government started when it announced its new resource tax, the big test of Julia Gillard’s political skills will be whether it is seen as a ”compromise” or a ”backflip”.

    Backflips, it will be remembered, helped bring Kevin Rudd down. ”Compromises”, if that is how changes of policy are interpreted, can make Gillard seem responsive and politically savvy.]


    Backflip, backflip, backflip. they know nothing about backflip.

  13. Itep,

    I think there are many fewer Abbott-haters in QLD than elsewhere.

    I swear I saw the polls fall in QLD when Abbott called Rudd “not a real Queenslander”.

  14. [We don’t actually think of Gillard as a South Australian, although she was born here. Julia Bishop and Therese Rein were as well and we don’t think of either of them as South Aussies either.]

    Diog, Diog, Diog, it must be the pommy’s midday sun and the mad dog. It’s time you come home and we still want you, just. wRONg, wRONg, wRONg.

    [Gillard was born in 1961 in Barry, Vale of Glamorgan, Wales.[6] Nye Bevan remains one of her political heroes.[7] After she suffered from bronchopneumonia as a child, her parents were advised it would aid her recovery to live in a warmer climate.[8] The family chose to migrate to Australia in 1966, settling in Adelaide.[9] Her parents, John and Moira, live in Pasadena, South Australia.[10] She has a sister, Alison, who is three years older.[8]]


  15. [ Anything less than $10B shows Swan handed his testicles to Gillard and the miners in exchange for becoming deputy PM.]

    Diogenes, what is Gillard going to do with another two? She already has Kevin’s and Tony’s on her mantelpiece.

  16. William

    Is there a word missing in your 3rd bullet point, perhaps:

    “It’s been noted lately that the New South Wales Liberals are dragging their heels…”

    …and did you intend a link under the “Sydney Morning Herald” following that comment?

  17. Geez, just heard a lot of bizzare Australia-hate from Indians on the radio about the John Howard thingy.

    According to one Indian we are not a secular and tolerant society.

    That is true, our caste system is infinitely more discriminatory that any other country I can think of.

  18. To paraphrase someone much wiser than me, my democracy extends to hating everyone equally, but the Queensland Government more so. I belong to that automatically derided group of over-sixties who go about life without realizing we’re nut-jobs allowed out the front gate only with the blessing of a phantom Nurse Ratched.

    You too, might shun my posting, because of an aversion to reading rules might preclude the use of my submission which I lifted from my failed and domain troubled WordPress site. Here goes:

    Funny how time flies, what with it being 21 years since a chap called Fitzgerald confirmed the findings of two Brisbane journalists on the greasing of the various Lurks and Perks Departments of the Executive Building. Wouldn’t, couldn’t possibly happen again, the sages mooted; Cabinet crooks would contain their activities to North Qld. towns and the dives of Fortitude Valley where the snow was always white and the slime-bags operated south of the Tweed.

    So two Queensland bureaucrats are officially rebuked. Is the heat of deep shit rising dictating moves? I won’t weep for these two, except perhaps for the huge brown paper bag they’ll take with them as salve. Angry Italian citizens found an ideal use for butcher’s hooks when it came to dealing with top-level corruption, à la Mussolini. Executive crime is only a crime in Queensland when George Street Looters and Thugs feel threatened and avert their eyes when passing the Law Courts just down the road from Diddle Den.

    When I first saw the prim and impeccably attired Fraser in a T.V. news story, he and Beattie had copped a spray of water from an irate protester at an event shoot. His look of utter horror said it all. His pretty suit had been abominated by the hoi polloi and I could imagine the tut-tutting as he flicked at his suit as the limo whisked his Eminence back to the Executive Building.

    This was an unmitigated Beattie sniveller who had yet to attain the hallowed status he enjoys today. I thought to myself, “Hullo, if this is not being up your-self then I am a monkey’s uncle.” I checked the phrase up yourself and what a surprise, I found a connection to pompous. I then thought, this bloke cares a trillion times more about his image than he possibly could about the filthy unwashed, and hey, I was right on the money again. He is selling us out. Did he think to ask South Australian electricity consumers what effect privatisation had on their power bills?

    Queensland trade unions weak as piss at confronting the pus-bags and real enemies in the stinky, corrupt Cabinet. They ape their Federal dingo pals; good at disposing of the decent and defenceless, mortified at staring-out criminals.

    Today in bucolic and backward Beaudesert, the Department for the Homeless will exit their dismal Woodridge office to hold a farcical tenants meeting. It is conducted by washed-out and venomous public servants looking to keep alive their own lurks and perks. The spokeswoman last year, declared her job was to speak slowly to the dimwits as she explained how tenants could save minimal money on their electricity bills. Serious health issues like passive cigarette smoking is not covered by her agenda, she assured tenants.

    Her and her mealy-mouthed back-slapping colleagues are valueless and are not worth a pinch of shit. Australians never hear of the thousand deaths that occur overseas unless of macabre interest. The same number of decent but dissenting people are goaded into unwise and impulsive action by vengeful public servants and start a new life in a padded cell. One incident made news six months ago. Who argues the toss for the other 1,000? They rot alone! This is how the Housing Department collaborate with the devious XXX to discredit thinkers. Stalinist Russia honed mind games to a fine art, Queensland keeps the practice alive.

    You can bet your bollocks that if I quoted Voltaire’s assertion that democracy peppered with an appropriate assassination is acceptable, I’d have Labor’s secret police that no longer exist bashing my door in.

    I take to the hills for safety’s sake.

  19. Finns

    How embarrassment! Gillard actually went to my kids school (Mitcham Primary) and the local Unley High. All the sun here has addled my brain.

    [The government will make significant concessions to the miners, including cutting the headline 40 per cent rate of the RSPT. The rate at which the tax applies is expected to rise from the long-term bond rate of about 6 per cent to the bond rate plus 7 per cent, a total figure of 13 per cent.]

    That sounds like a serious cave-in but we’ll wait for confirmation and the bottom line.

  20. I wonder what Ken Henry thinks about all this. That’s now about 1.5 of his 130 recommendations implemented.

  21. Diog,

    I think Ken Henry is thinking about his retirement about now. Costello was right when he said the review should have been done by someome arms length from government and then assessed and modelled by Treasury.

  22. Tom

    Ken Henry got us through the GFC. We owe him a lot.


    [Diogenes, what is Gillard going to do with another two? She already has Kevin’s and Tony’s on her mantelpiece.]

    She has handed Rudd’s to the miners and I’d wait for the election before commenting on Abbott’s.

  23. Julie Bishop just reiterated that the coalition would scrap the tax even in an amended form.

    Seems a bit silly.

  24. [Julie Bishop just reiterated that the coalition would scrap the tax even in an amended form.

    Seems a bit silly.]

    It’s the only thing they can say. They can hardly support it now.

  25. I think we all know Swan is such a dope that he just does what he’s told which is probably for the best.

  26. [I think we all know Swan is such a dope that he just does what he’s told which is probably for the best.]

    Didn’t take long for your true colours to show.

  27. Itep,

    But they have said they would rescind it. Its a bit like Beazley saying he would rollback the GST.

    Tony will want the money for a spending spree.

  28. Surely getting the big miners to agree to pay more tax is a win, sure not as big a win as it was going to be but a win.

  29. [Surely getting the big miners to agree to pay more tax is a win, sure not as big a win as it was going to be but a win.]
    Correct. At one stage the government said it would be pushed through without change. At one stage the miners said the tax proposal must be scrapped in it’s entirety. Any sensible observer would have known that the tax would be implemented with some changes. If the final position is somewhere in the middle I’d call that a win/win.

  30. Hi all – hope everyone’s well. Exam marking is such fun. Interesting to see the Hindmarsh poll. I do recall a Hindmarsh Advertiser poll during the 2007 election campaign which had Labor leading 60-40, which turned out to be a bit of an over-estimation! (See William’s Hindmarsh link). The current 5% margin seems about right – I think there is a reasonable chance that no electorates will change hands in SA at the coming federal election. Although I do wish my UniSA colleague Rick Sarre well in Sturt!

  31. Well, 30% we loose 1.5 billion and business isn’t given any more money, they now have to cover the super increase’s with no drop in their costs, are you Labor people happy with that?

  32. [I wonder what Ken Henry thinks about all this. That’s now about 1.5 of his 130 recommendations implemented.]

    i think you should be enjoying your holiday with your family, if i was your wife or parnter i would be on the next plan home if a man cannot leave his lap top at home there is a porblem number son is proably around the same area as u in the medical profession and having a real holiday.

    gee your annoying

  33. [I think we all know Swan is such a dope that he just does what he’s told which is probably for the best.]

    We know no such thing. Also you can’t see the contradiction in bemoaning the fact that only ‘1.5’ of the Henry Review recommendations were picked up and then turning around and say Swan does everything Henry advises him to do?

    When it comes to advice from the public service all ministers need to decide which advice to accept and which to not accept. It would be unreasonable for them to reject all advice or not even to listen to the advice just as much as it would be unreasonable to accept all advice.

    But I don’t seriously expect you’re engaging at this time other than to launch anti-Labor tirade after anti-Labor tirade. Quite frankly nothing would ever be good enough for you as far as Labor is concerned.

  34. The deal is through. It looks like it is now just a twiggy, bhp and rio tax.

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has slashed the mining tax rate and reduced the resources affected in order to secure an agreement with mining companies.

    In details just annouced, the renamed Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) will apply only to iron ore and coal in Australia, and will be capped at 30 per cent rather than the original 40 per cent proposed, according to a press release. Oil and gas projects will come under the current Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) regime to all Australian onshore and offshore oil and gas projects, including the North West Shelf.

    Other commodities will not be included, which reduces the number of affected companies from 2,500 to around 320, the statement said. These commodities were not expected to pay significant amounts of resource rent tax, and excluding them will allow many companies to remain in their existing taxation regimes.

    Crucially, the new ”super profits” tax will only kick in when profit exceeds the long-term bond rate plus 7 per cent – compared with just the bond rate in the original reform announced by then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on May 2.

    More to come



  35. [Well, 30% we loose 1.5 billion and business isn’t given any more money, they now have to cover the super increase’s with no drop in their costs, are you Labor people happy with that?]

    If my super is increased of course I’m happy.

  36. The mining policy alwasy had to have a compromise get over it. The man in the street would not have a clue unless he studied it, ask them was the threshold was
    re 6 percent they may shrug their shoulder say whats that.

    Most people just want it settled so we can go back to ordinary topics like health etc.the qld numbers re morgan was before this.

    I hope you dont all dwell on it here today or it will become like the ets an obsession for some but mostly boring

    That said the abc have been drilled very well in the intonation they put in their voices re back down and major its the first words i heard this morning.

    Julia has done very well and she should be applauded as for the person who said that about swan how does he know has he been listening in to all the phone calls and a fly on the wall again armchair comments we Know nothing.
    except its time to move on well sometime today anyway

  37. We should have all known that a compromise would be achieved by Gillard, that is what it is all about, it’s called Conciliation and Arbitration not Confrontation. That could also mean Negotiation.
    However the MSM will call it a Backflip.

  38. [If my super is increased of course I’m happy]

    ABSOLUTLEY the liberals want to take it away so end of story silly question from a liberal
    and whats the old saying better than kick up the proverbial better than nothing

  39. More detail still needs to be known before the ‘deal’ can be assessed. I suppose the consolation is that there will be extra revenue for the government.

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