Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)

Roy Morgan has again rained on Julia Gillard’s poll parade, with a poll of 800 voters in four Queensland marginals showing Labor no better placed than they were said to be before Kevin Rudd’s demise. The four seats targeted are outer suburban Longman and regional Flynn, Dawson and Leichhardt, and if by some coincidence the figures for each are accurate – which is unlikely, as the margin of error on each 200-sample poll is about 7 per cent – Labor stands to lose all except the latter with respective swings of 7.3 per cent, 8.2 per cent and 3.4 per cent, with no change recorded in Longman. However, it would be more instructive to combine the results and think in terms of a collective swing of a bit below 5 per cent and a margin of error of 3.5 per cent. If consistent across Queensland, this would cost Labor eight seats held actually and two held notionally. Helpfully, three of these seats were covered in Newspoll’s marginal seat survey of Tuesday before last, conducted during Kevin Rudd’s last weekend as Prime Minister, the exception being Leichhardt. This showed a 6 per cent swing from a margin of error of 4 per cent. Presumably Morgan will offer a face-to-face poll from last weekend tomorrow, the first such poll conducted on Gillard’s watch.

There is better news for Labor from The Advertiser, which has Labor leading 56-44 in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, held for Labor on a margin of 5.1 per cent. The survey involved 633 respondents and would have a margin of error of a little below 4 per cent, although this presumes a random sample which The Advertiser probably lacks the expertise to obtain.

Federal preselection news:

• The Socialist Left faction of the Victorian ALP, which dominates the local branches, has chosen ACTU industrial officer Cath Bowtell as its candidate for the federal preselection for Melbourne, to be vacated on the retirement of Lindsay Tanner. The faction’s secretary, Andrew Giles, had been favoured by some for the position, but agreed to stand aside in favour of Bowtell, whose endorsement is now considered a fait accompli. The preselection will be conducted locally on Sunday and finalised by the party’s public office selection committee on Tuesday.

• Queensland’s troubled Liberal National Party has picked a new candidate for the Brisbane seat of Moreton, which Labor’s Graham Perrett won from sitting Liberal Gary Hardgrave in 2007, after the original nominee, Michael Palmer (20-year-old son of mining magnate Clive), withdrew citing health concerns. The winner was Malcolm Cole, former Courier-Mail journalist and staffer to former Senator Santo Santoro, who defeated local businessman Steve Smith.

• It’s been noted lately that the New South Wales Liberals are dragging their heels getting candidates in place in important electorates: Lindsay, Parramatta and Greenway. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, these will be resolved over the next fortnight. The Penrith Press reports two candidates have nominated in Lindsay: marketing manager Fiona Scott and casual teacher Margaret Grand.

State preselection news from New South Wales:

• The Nationals’ ground-breaking “open primary” preselection for Tamworth was conducted last weekend, delivering victory to local businessman Kevin Anderson. The ballot was open to anyone registered in the electorate, attracting 4293 voters. Anderson won 2110 vote (49.4 per cent) to 1100 (25.7 per cent) for James Treloar, 648 (15.2 per cent) for Russell Webb and 414 (9.7 per cent) for Mark Rodda, with the distribution of Rodda’s preferences electing Anderson. A similar effort by the Victorian ALP in the Liberal-held state seat of Kilsyth in April only attracted 170, although the only procedural difference was a requirement that participants register online. The winner on that occasion was former electorate officer Vicky Setches with 75 per cent of the vote.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal preselection for the safe Liberal NSW state seat of Baulkham Hills, to be vacated at the election by retiring Wayne Merton, has been postponed after originally being scheduled for tomorrow. The preselection is the latest front in the war between state upper house MP David Clarke and federal Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, former allies in the Right. At issue is the validity of the membership of 14 Clarke supporters who attempted to join at an infamous Baulkham Hills Young Liberals meeting in Hawke’s electorate office last year, which ended with Hawke calling the police. The Hawke forces are backing state Civil Contractors Federation chief executive David Elliott, who unsuccessfully challenged Clarke for his upper house preselection earlier this year. Clarke supports Damien Tudehope, solicitor and Australian Family Association spokesman Damien Tudehope. Also in the field is Hills Shire deputy mayor Mike Thomas. It appears the preselection will be postponed until the federal election is out of the way, in the likely event that it is called shortly.

• Greens state upper house MP Sylvia Hale, who earlier made what most presumed to be a retirement announcement when she said she would not seek re-election, has announced she will seek to run in the highly winnable lower house seat of Marrickville. She must first win next week’s preselection vote against Marrickville deputy mayor Fiona Byrne, the candidate from 2007.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours reports Peter Fraser, former chief-of-staff to John Brogden, might emerge as a starter in the endlessly confusing preselection to choose a successor to Peter Debnam in Vaucluse. The remainder of the field is summarised as “Left numbers woman Gabrielle Upton, independent restaurateur Peter Doyle, Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie, Turnbull branch fixture Mary Lou Jarvis and Sydney gymnasium tycoon and right-winger Peter Cavanagh”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

666 comments on “Swings (Queensland) and roundabouts (Hindmarsh)”

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  1. BH,

    [ My opinion of the media is unfortunately shared by an extremely large segment of the population.

    Scorps@2730 last thread. Did that show up heavily or moderately during your survey?]

    No BH. Just a shot at MT, it’s pretty evident by the drop in sales of newspapers, less people logging on to news sites and ABC patronage dropping.

    I was just pointing it out to MT that her opinion of the MSM is not matched by reality.
    😉

  2. [I don’t see how “law and order” can be run as a federal election issue anyway. It’s a state issue. The Libs tried this last time with their desperate nonsense about “hoons and grafitti”, and it gained them nothing.]
    As the normal dogwhistles go flat they will dig deeper into the well.

  3. The Fed equivalent of lornorder is border protection and stopping the boats.
    They are all set to go on that one.
    Morgan is seriously next to the point on this one.

  4. [The Libs have been hung out to dry, hoisted by their own petard.]
    That’s usually what happens with lazy short-termism.

  5. Psephos at 462 said
    “The importance of the CPRS decision in Rudd’s demise has been exaggerated. Rudd’s poll slump began in October, not in April. I agree it was a bad decision, but it flowed naturally from the even worse decision not to call a DD on climate in February. I believe that decision was all his own work”.

    I thought you used to consider Psephos, that a DD in February was a bad idea because it would have required another election in 2 years. I certainly think the PM was right not to call a DD then, and I’m sure lots of people gave him that advice.
    And on abandoning the CPRS, that was an example of Rudd taking the advice of Swan, Gillard and Arbib. So its silly to say Rudd never took advice or only took advice from his office. We can agree he did not consult widely enough, but in our reconstruction of history lets not go to extremes.

  6. jaundiced view,

    [Good, I must repair to the club for a bit of scorpio-style focus group work.]

    I much prefer your method, JV. The legs get a bit wobbly on the way home though and I tend to forget what people were talking about also. 😉

    Good thing too, as it’s usually rubbish after a couple of hours quenching the thirst.

  7. Anyone who can`t see “state” between “Assembly” and “trick” needs their eyes checked.

  8. Phoney Tony is very nicely wedged now, and he’s very obviously the puppet of the man who is filling the coffers of the Liberal/National parties. 😀

  9. No honeymoon for Gillard in Queensland in regards to seats, and it has come from Morgan generally someone who favors Labor in his pollijng.
    This is a concern for Labor. The honeymoon is over and from here the polls can only see Julias’ numbers slide. Labor strategists better hope they win because after the election their will blood everywhere.

  10. Looks like everyone has declared victory on the mining tax except Palmer and Abbott. Potentially, this sets up an interesting dynamic. Suppose Gillard wins and the Greens hold the Senate BOP. Will Gillard have to make the mining tax bigger to get the Greens to pass it in the Senate? If the Greens refuse and the Coalition refuse, because they are totally against it, where will that leave the Mining tax?
    OTOH, if Abbott wins, the Greens hold the BOP… will the Greens support Abbott’s wholesale social slash and burn based at least partly on the absence of a mining tax?

  11. I wish Psephos would put a sock in his mouth (or should that be fingers) when he is about to engage in another round of Rudd bashing.

    His comment that Rudd never took any advice, when we know that the current PM adviced him to dump the ETS, is truly laughable.

    Also his comment that Rudd was going down in the polls since October is true. But that was from a level where the ALP was at 56:44 TPP. I seem to remember someone saying that such figures would never be attained at election day and that ALP supporters should not be complacent. Well guess what. The figures did come down to more realistic levels. Isn’t it funny how polls tend to tighten the closer one gets to election day. But no, its ALL Rudds fault. Thats about as credible as those that say its ALL the media’s fault.

    /rant

  12. Interesting too that a lot of people in the mental health sector were very critical of Abbott & that tool Dutton in today’s SMH letters page. 😉

  13. I wish we could have some AGW around here. It is grey, wet, drizzlish, dark, somber… and that is at the start of the weekend… crool.

  14. Worse than that, Psephos seems to think that holding a DD electiion in February would have been a good thing. The reality is that the punters were already confused about climate science and had it been a referendum based on climate science on the one hand the hip pocket nerve on the other hands, Rudd may have made history for a different reason.

  15. Mithrandir

    Waste of a sock. Rudd got what he deserved. I am not sure that we got what we deserved in Gillard. Remains to be seen. Have x’d my fingers and x’d toes. I am absolutely certain that if Aussies are stupid enough to vote Abbott in, they will truly get what they deserve because there will be no suprises there.

  16. The Greens got less than 2500 votes out of 88,000 odd in Capricornia. 2.92% of the vote.

    That’s with an ex Labor left candidate. I can’t see them doing any better this time and they may probably do worse.

    If that is reflected across Qld, then expect no change for the Greens in the Senate from here.

  17. [I wish we could have some AGW around here. It is grey, wet, drizzlish, dark, somber… and that is at the start of the weekend… crool.]

    Moove to Qld. I have not had to turn my heater on this winter. Just gone from shorts to jeans. 🙂

  18. I agree with Mithrandir at 565. The problems with (and strengths of) the Rudd Government were multicausal. Media (particularly News ltd), mining industry, Rudd, Gillard, faction issues, refugee surge, GFC etc all contributed. Lets not blame Rudd for everything.

  19. cud chewer

    You would think there would be plenty of people capable of doing the job. My preferred qualifications would be:

    (1) must be sane, not neurotic and not psychotic
    (2) must have ego under some degree of control and must have a useful degree of self-awareness
    (3) must be moderately intelligent
    (4) must respect people
    (5) must have common sense
    (6) must have a core set of values – humanistic values would do me fine
    (7) must be prepared to take some risks to apply values through policy and program settings.
    (8) must have capacity to lead a team
    (9) must be able to use small words and small sentences to explain complex issues in a straightforward way.
    (10) must be able to admit mistakes.
    (11) must be able to add and subtract.

    Not much to ask, IMHO. I can’t understand why we get so many turkeys either in the job or trying out for the job.

  20. [ Lets not blame Rudd for everything.]

    Why not? He took the blame for everything, when he should not have done so.

  21. “Holloway backs down from earlier comments supporting a corruption watchdog”

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/holloway-backs-down-from-earlier-comments-supporting-a-corruption-watchdog/story-e6frea83-1225887247054

    [BESIEGED senior minister Paul Holloway has backed down from his earlier comments in support of an independent corruption watchdog for the state.

    He told Parliament the state may need a new independent corruption watchdog and suggested it be used to monitor phonecalls to journalists.

    Mr Holloway was forced to apologise to residents of regional New South Wales earlier this week after saying Adelaide would become “Dubbo with a car race” if development was blocked.

    He has now suggested members of the public service are breaking the law by providing sensitive information to Opposition finance spokesman Rob Lucas.

    “Clearly, the honourable member has some public servant who is breaching the Public Sector Act in terms of supplying the honourable member with information,” Mr Holloway told Parliament.

    “Perhaps we do need an ICAC, after all, for these corrupt public servants who are actually breaching the law and telling the honourable member.

    “Perhaps the Honourable Rob Lucas’s telephone should be one that you would tap all the time – you might pick up a few journalists he is talking to.

    “He has been peddling himself around to every journalist in Adelaide with his views.

    “Sadly, he has too many of them who are not objective enough to filter the information that is being provided.”

    Mr Lucas accused Mr Holloway of misleading Parliament for denying he had planned a trip to Europe and called on him to resign.

    Mr Holloway rejected assertions he had misled the Parliament, saying he had not “made any bookings in relation to overseas trips”.

    “At this stage, I have purely been investigating the options about some matters,” he said.

    The State Government has long opposed introduction of a state-based independent commission against corruption.

    Attorney-General John Rau has conceded his Government’s push for a national ICAC is “very, very unwell indeed” after it was rejected by the other states.

    Mr Rau has launched a review of the “current” anti-corruption structures in SA.

    Mr Holloway later downplayed the comments, saying Mr Lucas needed to “buy himself a dictionary and look up the word sarcasm.”

    “This Government doesn’t support the establishment of an Independent Commission Against Corruption. I agree with that position,” Mr Holloway said.]

    What a stupid story created out of nothing. The ’tiser knows he did not support an ICAC.

  22. The miners ran an ad campaign costing $100 million to save $1.5billion. Plus it was tax deductible.
    Good investment.

  23. At what point will/can it be reasonably concluded that the initial Gillard reaction has washed out of the polling, and respondents are giving a more considered reflection on voting intention? Is it when all the polls start lining up consistently again? From past polling, is there an average period that this occurs in?

  24. Love it how Big Business comes out whingeing NOW about the loss of the compay tax deduction.

    Where were they when it looked like the government was in trouble over the RSPT?

    Where was all the, “We need a tax deduction!”, “Good on you PM!” oratory then?

    crickets……

    This whole thing is so surreal: the government has $7.5 billion MORE to spend on lots of goodies than it used to have before, and this is some kind of failure?

    If a $9 billion dollar tax was going to ruin the country and even create sovereign risk, why is everything rosy with a $7.5 billion tax?

    Sickening.

  25. Confessions went:

    [At what point will/can it be reasonably concluded that the initial Gillard reaction has washed out of the polling, and respondents are giving a more considered reflection on voting intention? Is it when all the polls start lining up consistently again? From past polling, is there an average period that this occurs in?]

    Only with hindsight shall it be known! 😛

    Seriously though, the first time all the phone polls line up within about 4 points of each other over a given 3 week period on the major party primaries, would practically, probably, be as good a time as any.

  26. It’s a bloody bad look to kick Kevin Rudd when he’s down. Does he kick people when they’re down? No, except for the Liberals he gives them compassion and a hand-up. Can’t we move forward in unity to keep the miserable abbott out of the Lidge without shitting on the man who got rid of SerfChoices, saved us from the GFC, dispatched Howard, Costello, Downer, Vaile, Nelson, Brough, instigated historic health funding reform etc etc.

  27. 582

    If the Democrats run in 2010 then the Greens may get their preferences and the Democrats would still have some vote. Anyway the Greens were 3% ahead of all other non-big two tickets and should be in a similar situation this time. The ALP Senate vote is likely to be down in Qld but not at 2004 levels so the Greens have a very good chance.

  28. [It’s a bloody bad look to kick Kevin Rudd when he’s down.]

    OK lets forget about how the nations most popular PM did not see out his first term. Nothing to learn, lets forget all about it.

  29. [ Worse than that, Psephos seems to think that holding a DD electiion in February would have been a good thing. The reality is that the punters were already confused about climate science and had it been a referendum based on climate science on the one hand the hip pocket nerve on the other hands, Rudd may have made history for a different reason.]

    I’m with cud chewer. The punters were already nervous about the ETS, and sitting ducks for a scare campaign. The science of climate change is complicated, the extra cost-of-living expenses were not.

  30. I don’t care how bad it looks.

    IMHO, there has to be a serious question about Rudd’s sanity towards the end.

  31. [Went to Sydney yesterday stayed overnight with brother.]

    Well Amigo, could have shouted you a lunch and a double shot latte :kiss:

  32. [If the Democrats run in 2010 then the Greens may get their preferences and the Democrats would still have some vote.]

    Bollocks it was a Bartlett vote, even I voted for him. To think the democrats could get anywhere near the 2007 vote is crazy.

    Dream on Tom.

  33. [oops!! still not happy with the backstabbers]

    Vera it will not help you with negative thought, its taken me a week and a bit to get over it.

    Claire our daughter who cried as much as me said to day Mum did you notice how
    Julia included martin Ferguson this morning, she said i had never seen him before who is he, well she was amazed she said thats not good enough it was alwasy kevin when there was a good announcement i think julia will be very inclusive. she said,

    That was one big turning point for me if you have happy ministers and happy backbenchers you have a happy team. this mining deal was going on far to long, look at the ets i think the public where just sick and tired of it I was and i am very devoted labor but i thought for goodness sake just let it go.
    It was dreadful the greens would not play ball then we know the rest of the story.

    IF this rspt had of gone on much longer it would of been miserable Julia had done a great job, i was very up set and could not even sleep.
    But perhaps its all for the best i even rang Julias rooms yesterday to ask after her.

    So say to your self this is the will of the universe and thats how we have to see it to save us from the Tories.

    WE have to do it for kev. I think he need s a rest and no i not happy with the ones who decided this but as my dad alwasy said there are two sides to most stories.
    have a restful week end have another cry for kev if you want, i just wrote to my cousin in qld and i still have tears.

    But as my oldest daughter said if there is no jUlia pm the tears will be worse.
    Thats not even worth contemplating because Vera dear we are winners now that we are grinner’s.

  34. Cuppa

    586

    Well said! What an ungrateful lot we are! I still have a slightly sick feeling in my stomach about what was done to Rudd and more importantly about the way it was done.

  35. 595

    I said the Democrats would still get some vote not a similar vote. They may get 1% rather than 2% but every little bit counts in close contests.

    Do you live in in the seat of Brisbane by any chance?

  36. Look, if someone loses a job, do we kick them and judge them?? No, we’re better than the RWFs. We give them compassion and a helping hand. Why should Kevin Rudd be any different? He’s lost more than a job, he’s lost a Prime Ministership in the most public circumstances possible. As his world falls through the floor and he faces probably the darkest days of his whole life, some here are kicking him and dancing on his political grave. A very bad look and low act against someone who worked hard, gave of his best, and meant well.

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