And you thought a week was a long time in politics. Two hours after the first intimations of action, Kevin Rudd has announced he will face a leadership challenge from Julia Gillard at 9am tomorrow. Speaking at his press conference, Rudd invoked indigenous issues, the mining tax, pensions and climate change in a clear pitch to the party’s left, whom he called on to stand tough against the machinations of the Right faction heavies who have brought the situation to a head.
For my money, if the party room’s electoral prospects are what matters to it, there is little choice for it but to back Gillard. The warlords have moved against Rudd because they are brutally aware that it is he who is dragging them down in the polls and threatening their re-election prospects. In his absence, the government will be able to modify damaging policies as Rudd could not afford to, for fear of being called out over another “backflip”. Labor would also enter the election with a credible and certain story to tell about the next three years, the lack of which defeated Howard more than any single factor with only the possible exception of WorkChoices. Then there’s the feel-good factor of our first woman prime minister, which most voters recognise as overdue. Finally, I suggest that Glenn Milne’s thoughts last week on the dynamics of a Gillard-Abbott election battle would end up looking highly prescient after the event.
Over to you.
UPDATE: And with what great timing, we get the long-awaited quarterly cumulative Newspoll. This combines polls five from April to June, which successively had Labor’s party vote at 54, 49, 50, 51 and 52, allowing state and demographic results to be provided from a reasonable sample size. The state breakdowns show a surprisingly mild move against Labor in Western Australia, from 51-49 behind in January-March to 53-47 in April-June. While Labor has crashed seven points on the primary vote to 31 per cent, the dividend has gone entirely to Greens and “others”. If the result was uniform, Labor would hold its own on those numbers. The only other state with Labor trailing is Queensland, where Labor fell from 51-49 ahead to 52-48 behind. New South Wales and Victoria recorded little change with Labor leading 52-48 and 56-44, while their lead in South Australia dived from 55-45 to 51-49.
There was little sign of recent turmoil among voters over 50, among whom the Labor vote held steady on 37 per cent. It was a case of other age groups falling to that level: Labor fell five points to 39 per cent among 18-34s, and seven to 36 per cent and 35-49s. The Coalition primary vote was up three points among men to 43 per cent but steady on 39 per cent among women, who have instead sent votes lost to Labor to the Greens and others.
UPDATE 2 (Thursday morning): Not sure how much it’s worth now, but The Advertiser ran a poll this morning of 530 voters from the seat of Adelaide, where Labor holds a margin of 8.5 per cent but has been said to be in trouble. The poll doesn’t entirely bear this out: Labor’s primary vote was down 7 per cent from the election to 41 per cent, but the Liberals are also down from 37 per cent to 35 per cent – suggesting the undecided had not been distributed – and most of the dividend went to the Greens, up 6 per cent to 16 per cent. In two-party terms, Labor retained a handsome 57-43 lead.
UPDATE 3 (Thursday afternoon): Comments thread talk tells us Galaxy are in the field, suggesting we can expect the first poll of the new era either in the Sunday News Limited tabloids.
. . . her indoors
It’s not easy. There were some links posted quite a while ago (Firefox, Greasemonkey, the other one we’re not supposed to name).
I’ve found it useful, but I won’t go into it any further because I know William frowns on it. At any rate, I’m sure somebody around here knows what the links are.
Sorry I can’t be of more help. I’m a techno-idiot, only good at following instructions.
Finns
I am trying to eat some clotted cream cheese that has a real weird pommy name and stinks to high heaven
makes the G taste a tad more palatable
[I think all those who are disappointed with the removal of PM Rudd should check Labor’s internal polling at Shows On’s post 2533.]
With Labor traitors undermining Rudd by leaking to journalists at News Ltd. (how corrupt can you get?) why should I be convinced that these numbers are real?
Motive? Rudd was too hard on the union backed muppets like Shorten and Feeney. I know Shorten far better than most. My brother basically introduced him into the union movement. Shorten is a clever salesman but like all salesmen he’s only interested in himself and not the customer.
Thanks gusface.
Gus, should try the durians sometimes, make your stinky cheese smells like perfume
[This is about the party bosses using the polls (especially the decline in Rudd’s popularity) and the media campaign against Rudd to regain control of the party.]
I’d have to agree with that.And they played a lot of people like a violin while they were doing it!
All the polling shows votes parked at the Greens and undecided which would obviously come back to Labor at the election, why has the party done this? I mean what is the real reason? This is the only media I can expect a genuine answer. (I have read all 2500+ posts).
Here is a question for all the ALP supporters.
If the only choices for PM were Tuckey and Hanson-Young which would you choose?
Emerson is probably also the only Minister who would understand the RSPT as well as Ken Henry. Resource/mining economics is his specialty. I understand his doctoral thesis was about a RSPT. Which probably explains why no one though it worth asking his opinion. In politics those with specialist knowledge seem to be mostly ignored.
Phibes
the rats are back in charge
Well if Gillard wins the election, and with Senate control with the Greens, very high up on the list of legislation to draft would be the ‘rapid dilution of media ownership bill #1’ aka slice murdoch balls in half bill.
[This is about the party bosses using the polls (especially the decline in Rudd’s popularity) and the media campaign against Rudd to regain control of the party.
But to what end? The only reason to “control” a party is to win elections and implement policies. The only reason today’s events happened was that factional conveners (who are not “bosses”, merely elected representatives of groups of MPs) became convinced that Rudd was leading the ALP to defeat. I don’t understand what ulterior motive you think they could have had. Caucus members don’t destabilise their own governments for the fun of it.]
I don’t know, Psephos. I am definitely not a political insider, and if I ever was to become one, it would be on The Other Side.
But I am a corporate insider, and I have seen many, many instances of the adage that in any company, the only person you can really be sure is 100% for the cause is the CEO. The others may be 100% for the cause, but they may not be -their own self-interest may be better served by the CEO failing, and some people are big enough bastards to want that to happen, even whilst happily accepting the company’s pay cheques.
Human nature is human nature, and I am sure there is an element like this in major political parties, as well.
I also was struck by the fact that The Piping Shrike, who seems to be a pro-Labor blogger, had exactly the same instinctive reaction that I did: something about all this doesn’t quite add up.
Gusface….
No I believe the Roosters are nowadays 🙁
Glen
i appreciate your restraint and respect for Rudd
whatever may pass i will remeber that show of compassion
I hope you were sincere
Tonight Pseph it’s
[ It wasn’t national polling, in which I will henceforth have a lot less confidence except as a very broad indicator. It was seat-by-seat. It was bad for Labor generically, very bad for Rudd specifically. ]
3 nights ago it was
[
If there is no national swing to the Libs, there will be no net gains. If Labor again polls 52% of the national 2PV, it will again win the election.
]
I’m confused, is the first post an admission of an error of judgement?
Clearly Michael Kroger has not meet Kevin Andrews.
ALP has turned back from the shipwreck we were heading, and safely sails back into culture free waters….simplify, dumb down, away from arts and back to sport, but alas win the next election.
“She’s one of us we like her” said the Aussie public. “That Rudd guy spoke too quick with them big words, and he can speak other foreign stuff, and not just Australian”
[Well if Gillard wins the election, and with Senate control with the Greens, very high up on the list of legislation to draft would be the ‘rapid dilution of media ownership bill #1? aka slice murdoch balls in half bill.]
I thought the same thing even when Rudd was in charge. Australian news outlets should be owned by Australians and no owner should have anything like the ‘weight’ that Doctor Strangelove has.
Gee Tom you ask the darnest questions. I would choose Sarah (can’t look into a camera) Young
[Motive? Rudd was too hard on the union backed muppets like Shorten and Feeney. I know Shorten far better than most. My brother basically introduced him into the union movement. Shorten is a clever salesman but like all salesmen he’s only interested in himself and not the customer.]
“Union backed muppets”. Dear me. You sound like Howard and Costello with their “union bosses” line. The ALP is a union party, it always has been and so long as I have anything to do with it, it always will be. You think Rudd came into politics without union and factional backing? He’s a member of the “Old Guard” sub-faction of the Queensland Right, and its various right-wing unions.
It’s amazing to see lefties bewailing Rudd’s demise. Rudd was probably the most right-wing leader Labor has ever had (not that there’s anything wrong with that!). He’s a church-going Christian moralist, or hadn’t you noticed? Now he’s been replaced by a card-carrying member of the left, an atheist and a feminist (of sorts) and you’re all in a roaring rage. Very strange.
Kroger is an idiot. What “ramifications” exist today that were caused by the Hawke / Keating leadership ballots?
Kroger knows f-all about the ALP, but he craps on as if he is an expert.
[If the only choices for PM were Tuckey and Hanson-Young which would you choose?]
Informal.
Gusface I am not lying that I felt pretty depressed watching Rudd get through his speech. I wouldnt be human if I said I wasnt a bit teary even for a bloke. It is a sad thing to watch someone in that situation.
I was glad to hear of the things he’d done well. Most of which I hadnt heard of such as organ donation.
I feel like my hooting and hollering at his demise last night was just stupid.
I could have been ok with another term of Rudd but not of Julia and Arbib & Co.
I’m just miffed that now we have two complete duds (two of most dirty in the game) leading both the majors.
At least I can go into this election being able to trash both sides equally now 🙂
Or even
[ Labor polls 52% of the national 2PV it will win the election, and no amount of trying to find local variations will alter that fact. ]
Are you just making it up as you go along Adam?
2624
Imagine you were the GG and needed to appoint a caretaker PM quickly.
Psephos@2621
It’s the cult of Kochie and Sunsrise that created the monstor called Rudd and those wailing have become members of that cult.
[I wouldnt be human if I said I wasnt a bit teary even for a bloke. It is a sad thing to watch someone in that situation.]
And it is completely unprecedented, knocked off in his first term! If he had been in for 5 years then it would be different.
It’s possible that a “long term” Prime Minister now will be one that wins 2 elections.
Glen
i could sorta handle them deposing him after parliament break
But they fracking knifed him on the penultimate day
FMD
what heartless pricks
[3 nights ago it was
If there is no national swing to the Libs, there will be no net gains. If Labor again polls 52% of the national 2PV, it will again win the election.
I’m confused, is the first post an admission of an error of judgement?]
It was an error of inadequate knowledge. Three nights ago I hadn’t seen the local polling. I now know that national polling is less useful as an indicator than I previously believed. Obviously a party on 52% will usually win – but not always, it seems. We live and learn, or I do anyway.
That smile on Swan’s face during Gillard’s presser was almost as bad as Cossies smirk.
[It’s amazing to see lefties bewailing Rudd’s demise. Rudd was probably the most right-wing leader Labor has ever had (not that there’s anything wrong with that!). He’s a church-going Christian moralist, or hadn’t you noticed? Now he’s been replaced by a card-carrying member of the left, an atheist and a feminist (of sorts) and you’re all in a roaring rage. Very strange.]
All true so far as it goes.
But wasn’t she backed in by the Right?
[Obviously a party on 52% will usually win – but not always, it seems.]
Pretty bloody close to always, I would have thought.
Psephos which would you choose?
Tuckey or Hanson-Young?
It was also the speed at which they fragged him.
This was calculated and planned long before last night.
Not that Gillard was involved but they heavies were.
I hope Rudd does become Foreign Minister, I think he will do a great job.
In both politics and business 2 and half years in the one job is a life time. as I have said several times, lets be proud of Rudd’s acheivements but lets focus on fixing the problems facing the Government
Just over 150 days until the Victorian state election.
time will fly.
Glen
swannee has lost all respect in my eyes
to knife your mate is bad enough
to do it when you gain max publicity is unforgiveable
[It’s amazing to see lefties bewailing Rudd’s demise. Rudd was probably the most right-wing leader Labor has ever had (not that there’s anything wrong with that!). He’s a church-going Christian moralist, or hadn’t you noticed? Now he’s been replaced by a card-carrying member of the left, an atheist and a feminist (of sorts) and you’re all in a roaring rage. Very strange.]
You have totally misread the mood though I’m not surprised. I don’t give a rat’s ar$e about the religious / non-religious leanings of you or Rudd or Gillard or anyone else for that matter. Is that a serious consideration for you?
Is that little spiel from you typical of the anti Rudd stuff that goes on in Canberra?
[But wasn’t she backed in by the Right?]
If there is a ballot she would’ve got 80, so that means support from nearly everywhere.
[But wasn’t she backed in by the Right?]
She was backed in by everyone but the hard left (who always support the outgoing leader, whoever it is, as a matter of tradition), and a few Class of 07 members who felt a personal debt to Rudd. If there had been a ballot, Rudd would have got fewer than 30 votes.
[Pretty bloody close to always, I would have thought.]
And an incumbent government getting 52 is more likely to win than an opposition because governments tend to win the close contests.
2634
dyno
Can I draw your attention to the 2010 South Australian state election, maybe?
[It was also the speed at which they fragged him.
This was calculated and planned long before last night.]
The circumstantial evidence certainly points that way.
pseph
how do you spell loyallty?
backstab perchance?
less than 30 is sad. even Latham managed higher than that
[Psephos which would you choose?
Tuckey or Hanson-Young?]
Neither would ever join the ALP so I don’t have to choose. I suppose SHY is at least educable.
2641
What if the challenger was hard left and would not win without their votes but would win with them?
Lead item on the radioinfo email newsletter.
[Can I draw your attention to the 2010 South Australian state election, maybe?]
Fair enough. But it’s pretty unusual, isn’t it?
[2510
Psephos
……….Today really is historic.
I guess it is. It’s perhaps a pity that no-one else here seems willing to admit that anyone else can ever be right about anything if it contradicts their fixed preconceptions.]
I’ll second that remark!