Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes in comments is again first with the poll news: the latest monthly Nielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, is a shocker for the government. The Coalition has opened a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43 per cent for the Coalition, 33 per cent for Labor and 15 per cent for the Greens. The Herald reports this is Labor’s worst result since just after the September 11 attacks. The sample for the poll is 1400.

UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here. The article notes that if preferences were distributed as per the last election rather othan on the basis of and not as indicated by respondents – usually a more reliable method – the two-party result would be 52-48. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is down four points from a month ago to 41 per cent and his disapproval is up three to 52 per cent – actually better for him than other polls of late – and Tony Abbott approval is down five, also to 41 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 54-38 to 49-39. Only 55 per cent of voters now expect Labor to win the election, down 16 per cent in two months. The government appears to have lost ground in the resource super profits tax, with 41 per cent supporting and 49 per cent opposed comparing with 44 per cent and 47 per cent last month.

Sixty-two per cent, including “more than four in 10” Labor voters, support the Liberals’ promised return of offshore processing of asylum seekers offshore. Interestingly, a “party favoured on asylum seekers” question gets 35 per cent for the Liberals, 19 per cent for Labor and 18 per cent for the Greens. We are also told the Coalition has a remarkable 63-37 lead in Western Australia – which could easily be written off on grounds of a small sample (about 140), if we hadn’t been told something very similar last month.

UPDATE 2: The Australian has published results of a Newspoll survey commissioned by the mining industry targeting nine key seats in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Respondents were only asked, so far as we know, about the resources super profits tax, its likely impact on their vote choice and who they voted for in 2007. I have taken the opportunity to compile all the available data on this subject, of which there is a very great deal, into the table below. Some pollsters only asked respondents if they supported or opposed the tax, while others asked them to specify whether their support or opposition was strong or weak. Variation in wording of the question no doubt explains some of the distinction between pollsters. For example, Morgan asked about “the new 40% tax on profits of mining projects”, whereas Essential merely spoke of “Higher taxes on the profits of large mining companies”. The numbers shown in brackets are the polls’ sample sizes.

That the Newspoll figures for Queensland are less favourable than Galaxy’s might have something to do with the seats targeted in the former – mining-affected Flynn and Dawson, together with urban Flynn – although the higher undecided result from Newspoll is harder to explain. The 41 per cent strong opposition among Western Australian respondents – from Perth, Brand and Hasluck is a striking figure by any standards. The seats targeted in South Australia were Wakefield, Hindmarsh and Kingston, all located in Adelaide and its outskirts. Among other questions asked of respondents was the effect of the tax on voting intention. Overall 8 per cent said it made them more likely to vote Labor against 31 per cent less likely; from Western Australian respondents, the figures were 6 per cent and 39 per cent.

SUPPORT OPPOSE
strong weak/all weak/all strong
Nielsen (1400) National Jun 3-6 41 49
Galaxy (800) Queensland Jun 2-3 16 21 22 32
Newspoll (600) Qld marginals May 31-Jun 3 17 13 19 30
Newspoll (600) WA marginals May 31-Jun 3 11 10 16 41
Newspoll (600) SA marginals May 31-Jun 3 18 14 18 21
Morgan (655) National May 26-27 44 48
Westpoll (400) Brand May 25-26 25 56
Essential (2000) National May 19-23 12 31 22 14
Morgan (571) National May 12-13 41 52
Essential (2000) National May 4-9 52 34
Nielsen (1400) National May 6-8 44 47
Morgan (669) National May 4-5 47 45

UPDATE 3: No such calamity for Labor as far as Essential Research is concerned: they have Labor in front 52-48 on two-party preferred, up from 51-49 last week. However, the poll reflects the general trend in having both parties down on the primary vote – Labor two to 37 per cent and the Coalition one to 40 per cent – with the Greens up three to 12 per cent. Also featured are “best leadership team”, with Labor in the clear 47-31, “awareness of asylum seeker intake” (a very even spread across all the available categories), whose mining tax campaign is least unconvincing (the miners’, just), and whether John Howard should be head of the International Cricket Council (50 per cent no opinion, otherwise in Howard’s favour).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,546 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Hurts talks of Crean being caught out telling the truth. I don’t think we’ll be able to say that about you old son.

  3. [Truthy: their wealth (ie, Terese’s) is somewhere in the range of $40-50 million

    Turnbull’s worth is somewhere in the range of $150-200 million

    Barack Obama’s wealth is somewhere in the hundreds of millions of $US]

    Actually, Obama’s wealth as declared to the FEC in 2007 was about $1 million. This was decidedly less than a lot of others who were running at the time including Romney (250 mill), Giuliani (70 mill), Clinton (50 mill – inclusive of Bill). Presidents don’t generally make money in the White House – the Clintons left it reportedly broke – but then make a motza after.

  4. [What they are “worth” is none of your business or mine.

    You think a “silver spooner” simply means rich person. ]

    HAHA Classic!

    So after whining like little bitches for weeks about how rich Twiggy makes and how he’s not paying his fair share, you say how much the Rudd family has is none of my business and of no concern to the nation.

    This is hypocrisy at it’s greatest. The miners need to be pointing out how much money the Rudd family is worth at every news conference. Whats good for the goose is good for the gander.

  6. Simon Crean: Rudd got it wrong

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/can-the-tax-be-fixed-when-rudd-says-its-not-broken/story-e6frg6zo-1225878151061

    As Simon Crean told Perth radio host Howard Sattler when visiting for the community cabinet meeting this week, there should have been more consultation.

    “If you want to have the argument about ‘should consultation have taken place?’ I concede that,” the Trade Minister said.

    “That’s always the way in which you should go into it. But it didn’t take place.”

    This was also the view of the head of the government’s own Infrastructure Australia, Rod Eddington, who told the Minerals Council of Australia annual dinner that bad process could lead to bad policy, and he urged the government to go back to the beginning with regard to the resources tax.

    Crean also picked up on this point, which is far more politically loaded than just saying there wasn’t a proper process.

    The former Labor leader, whose leadership was white-anted by colleagues who are now in cabinet, went even further: “What we’re now saying is let’s fix it. We will have the consultation. We’ve signalled that, and what we want to do is to get an outcome, to get a result.”

    These comments suggest the tax has to be fixed because it’s broken. While Crean may try to make amends for his forthright comments, the damage is done.

    A senior minister believes the process used in developing the tax was flawed and has to be fixed.

    This is a long way from the hardline remarks of the Prime Minister and Treasurer, who have attacked the miners personally, declared the government has the tax “about right” and that only “transitional arrangements” can be discussed through the tax consultation panel.

    Crean’s comments also undermine Rudd’s strategy to refuse to admit to mistakes and to regain lost support with the public before offering a compromise from a position of strength.

  7. [This is hypocrisy at it’s greatest. The miners need to be pointing out how much money the Rudd family is worth at every news conference. Whats good for the goose is good for the gander.]

    So what you are inferring is that Rudd family will personally benefit from the RSPT the same way that Forrests family will personally benefit by not having the RSPT??

    Please explain?

  8. Toothy,
    I guess you haven’t ever sat one of those aptitude tests where you have to work through the logic and associations for the correct answer – or if you have you will have definitely failed, based on your logic of 3454

  11. Does anyone really believe that if the consultation process had begun behind closed doors that it wouldn’t have been made public very quickly?

  12. Normally the net worth of a politicians family would not be public interest.

    However Kevin Rudd has brought his family wealth into question with his class warfare he has brought onto the “mining bosses” especially those disgraceful ad’s his mates over at the unions are running.

    A little bit of hypocrisy here from the Labor supporters that they don’t think we should be allowed to examine his wealth don’t you think? Or is $60 Million okay, but $1 Billion is too much?

    I’m sure the average punter out there could only dream of having $60 Mill in the bank.

  13. [So whats his wifes… therefore his own personal wealth worth again?

    $200 Million? $300 Million? $400 Million? Anyone got the lowdown on Ruddies family net worth?]

    If you Libs want to go down this path then prepare yourselves for a strong shift towards Labor from the female vote and even moderate Lib female voters.

    That’s the last thing Abbott needs as he has a tenuous hold on the female voting segment of the electorate at “best”!

    So carry on! It’s fascinating to see what amuses gutter crawlers and just how low they are prepared to stoop hoping to pick up a vote or two.

    It can’t be too long now before Abbott totally self destructs and that “will” be fun to watch! 😉

  14. Prof doviff

    I think we can rest assured that crean’s comments have in no way or form materially altered the RSPT.

    No matter how hard you and the MSM pray.

    🙂

  16. Precisely, Gary. It would have made no difference whatsoever. This Government has consulted ad infinitem on so many initiatives – all are opposed in the same way. The Opposition and MSM are hell bent on disallowing any Government Legislation because they want them out of Government. It wouldn’t matter how much consultation or for how long, nothing would be different.

  18. [Does anyone really believe that if the consultation process had begun behind closed doors that it wouldn’t have been made public very quickly?]

    of course

  21. BK, you may be interested in this link to Emptywheel, one of the best bloggers on the net. She made her reputation covering the Plame/ Libby affair. BP and the Gulf disaster is getting her attention now,also, the comments on this blog are usually outstanding.

    “This will not be a shock for anybody paying attention to the ever changing figures from BP on what they are capturing from the containment cap versus what is blindingly obvious from watching the spillcam live video feed, but BP and the US government have yet again been dishonest about the nature and size of the oil gusher leaking into the Gulf of Mexico water.”

  22. [So what you are inferring is that Rudd family will personally benefit from the RSPT the same way that Forrests family will personally benefit by not having the RSPT??]

    No I’m inferring Rudd would be crying like a little girl if someone introduced a Great Big New Tax on pompous up them selves politicians with bad hair cuts.

    You don’t care about Rudd’s wealth but you have the gall to attack Twiggy for being successful. Disgraceful, absolutely disgraceful.

    Why isn’t the Rudd family paying their fair share of taxes? Why aren’t they being taxed on their “Super Profits” of returns above the bond rate of 5.4%?? It’s clear they have been making plenty of money, we need to “share the wealth around” and give back to the punters. Sounds fair

  23. bluegreen@3388:

    [Do you know what is wrong with Australia today? It is that old fogies like Don think they have the right to tell everyone the way the world should be. Go back to your nusring home old man.]

    Interesting that you imagine that what you think of as personal abuse constitutes rational argument.

    (this has been written on parchment supplied by the nursing home, written in india ink using a quill, and translated into the modern digital thingy by a lovely young slip of a thing who looks after my every need. :evil:)

  25. #3462 TTH

    I asked this question

    [So what you are inferring is that Rudd family will personally benefit from the RSPT the same way that Forrests family will personally benefit by not having the RSPT??

    Please explain?]

    But you went with something about class warfare.

    The point that the media has made is that people who led the protest rally was Twiggy Forrest worth multiple billions, and Gina Riehardt, worth multiple billions.

    They directly benefit from not having an RSPT.

    How does the Rudd family directly benefit by having an RSPT?

    Please explain your inference that Rudd is corrupt.

    Do you have evidence of this or are you just scatter gun slandering becuae you are in some sort of lunar right frenzy?

  26. [If you Libs want to go down this path then prepare yourselves for a strong shift towards Labor from the female vote and even moderate Lib female voters.]

    What happened to clamping down on “Super Profits”?

    Are all members of the Labor Party and their families excluded from the “Super Profits” Marxist mentality?

    The Hypocrisy.

  27. My Say, thanks for that link (http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2923682.htm)
    It’s such an important topic. And I can only endorse her conclusions as well.

    “I’m having none of it. Leopards don’t change their spots. Tony Abbott is still the Mad Monk or, as his daughter put it, “a lame… churchy loser.” If he comes to power, the Christian right will still have his ear and just as it was in the past, women, gays, single mothers, young people, Aborigines, religious minorities, migrants and those with the audacity to be disabled or unemployed will need to watch out.

    Labor needs to stop making elliptical references to the nightmare of an Abbott-led government and start spelling out exactly whose rights are likely to cancelled, and whose best interests will be decided by others.

    They need to explain not just what an Abbott-led Liberal government is likely to mean for “working families” and unionists, but the impact it would have on the rights, privacy and freedoms of all of us.”

  28. [Gerry Harvey, for all his criticism of the process, agrees with the tax. AGREES WITH IT.]

    Gerry Harvey is running a Whitegoods store, not a bloody mining operation. Of course he agree’s with a 2% tax on his business, who wouldn’t.

    A 40% increase in tax on your business though… not so popular.

  30. my say – the idea that you can “consult” with the miners is absolutely ludicrous. The only way you can deal with the miners is to bully them. They would regard any other form of conduct as totally disrespectful.

  31. [But you went with something about class warfare.

    The point that the media has made is that people who led the protest rally was Twiggy Forrest worth multiple billions, and Gina Riehardt, worth multiple billions.]

    What about the government and the unions?

    Haven’t they been talking about the mining bosses and how rich they are? Thats class warfare. And the miners should remind Australians just how much Rudd’s family is worth.
    Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.(or walk around naked)

  32. Who fed Truthy the outrage beans this morning!

    Guess that must be the Lib HQ meme again – linking Rudd to his wife’s business.

    How well did that end up for them last time?

    If that is the best argument you can mount, you’ve lost the battle.

    Plus you mentioned Marx and the Labor party in the same sentence. Bzzzt. Automatic fail.

  33. [Plus you mentioned Marx and the Labor party in the same sentence. Bzzzt. Automatic fail.]

    Do a search for “Super Profits” on google and tell me what you find.

    Rudd choose to use these words, I didn’t force it upon him.

  34. vera

    [They said on Skybuisness that Harvey had backed away from his criticism of Rudd and showed him outside the retailers meeting being a smart ass and jokingly saying wtte OK everything I said inside was wrong.
    wangker! ]

    Now that Woolworths has decided to be a partisan political player, they are now black-listed in this household now also.

    OH spends about $400 a week there. Coles and IGA will now get that business. I hope a lot more Labor supporters do the same thing and hit these arrogant sods right in the hip pocket and teach them a lesson about involving themselves in politics.

    They should be taking a leaf out of the football codes who know that they depend on support from people from all sides of the political divide and keep well out of it and instruct their players to do the same thing.

    To lose support from 40% of the population is more than enough to cause the financial failure of business based sporting codes “and” retail businesses.

  35. [Rudd couldn’t sell a fridge let alone a mining tax, fumes Gerry Harvey
    Mr Davis described the failed roof insulation scheme, which cost four lives and $2.45 billion, as an “absolute shemozzle”. And of the resource super profits tax ]

    ring the store owners tell them how u feel

  38. pancho – Obama’s wealth in early 2007 was about 1 million. Since then he has sold tens of millions of books. His net worth is at least in the tens of millions $USD. His Chicago mansion is worth at least $2 million.

  39. [You don’t care about Rudd’s wealth but you have the gall to attack Twiggy for being successful. Disgraceful, absolutely disgraceful.]

    Apart from the emotive garbage in the above statement, you are correct. I dont care about Rudds wealth. I dont care about Abbotts, or Turnbulls either. I dont care that much about Forrest’s wealth either.

    The issues is not wealth as you clearly think it is. It is the fact that Forrest who is a multibillionaire will directly benefit from not having a RSPT.

    You bluster and pontificate and slander, but you have not come up with any credible evidence that Rudd’s family will directly benefit from the introduction of a RSPT

    [Why isn’t the Rudd family paying their fair share of taxes?]

    You know they aren’t do you?

    [Why aren’t they being taxed on their “Super Profits” of returns above the bond rate of 5.4%??]

    Maybe they are not in the business of mining resources that belong to others and while their prices have risen 900%, their return to the owners of the resources has not kept up.

    Umm you do realise that their are different tax regimes for different industries in Australia? You do realise that dont you?

    [It’s clear they have been making plenty of money, we need to “share the wealth around” and give back to the punters. Sounds fair]

    Sounds like you are jealous of people like Forrest and Rudd or his wife who make something out of themselves. If they are engaged in business practices that mines resources and doesn’t give a proper return to the owners of those resources, they should pay more tax.

    Could you give me details of what the Rudds mine? Could you give me details of how much tax they paid last financial year, and back up your claim they evaded tax [you state that Rudds family is not paying their fair share of taxes]?

    I am all ears TTH. Obviously you have the Rudd’s tax details. Everyone hear would like to hear how they didn’t pay their taxes.

  40. [Now that Woolworths has decided to be a partisan political player, they are now black-listed in this household now also.

    i thouth the old boss of woolworth corbet came out and said the tax would not
    put up groceries.

    havent heard the new story about woolworths what is it

  41. [Who fed Truthy the outrage beans this morning!

    Guess that must be the Lib HQ meme again – linking Rudd to his wife’s business.

    How well did that end up for them last time?]

    the rumour has in the south island that there are paid protesters here

  42. [3477 IMOHO
    Posted Friday, June 11, 2010 at 10:56 am | Permalink
    My Say, thanks for that link (http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2923682.htm)
    It’s such an important topic. And I can only endorse her conclusions as well.

    “I’m having none of it. Leopards don’t change their spots. Tony Abbott is still the Mad Monk or, as his daughter put it, “a lame… churchy loser.” If he comes to power, the Christian right will still have his ear and just as it was in the past, women, gays, single mothers, young people, Aborigines, religious minorities, migrants and those with the audacity to be disabled or unemployed will need to watch out.]

    lets try to put it on as many face books as we can ask any of your young friends
    especially the girls, my daughter in law to be who up until recently voted lib was very happy to

  43. [audacity to be disabled or unemployed will need to watch out.

    Labor needs to stop making elliptical references to the nightmare of an Abbott-led government and start spelling out exactly whose rights are likely to cancelled, and whose best interests will be decided by others.]

    try to ring a talk back programe with what ever you want to talk about make it
    generic

  44. [try to ring a talk back programe with what ever you want to talk about make it
    generic]

    i think its great if you can get your thought across be quick and precise and dont let them talk over you.

  45. [They said on Skybuisness that Harvey had backed away from his criticism of Rudd and showed him outside the retailers meeting being a smart ass and jokingly saying wtte OK everything I said inside was wrong.
    wangker! ]

    perhaps people are phoning his stores, ask to speak to the franachisee

  46. [What happened to clamping down on “Super Profits”?

    Are all members of the Labor Party and their families excluded from the “Super Profits” Marxist mentality?

    The Hypocrisy.]

    It looks like our resident inmate of Ward 10B at the Townsville Hospital hasn’t been taking his medicine again! 😉

    Troothy, you have gone totally crackers now! Get a hobby or something, this blogging business has totally damaged your mental processing ability!

  47. [Gerry Harvey is running a Whitegoods store, not a bloody mining operation. Of course he agree’s with a 2% tax on his business, who wouldn’t.

    A 40% increase in tax on your busines]
    [Oops should read 2% tax reduction]

    Seems more like he is quite prepared to have a Coalition Government keep taxing him at 30% plus an extra 1.7% to cover Abbott’s Parental Leave scheme.

    I always was suspect about Harvey’s mental abilities.

    This just confirms to me that the man is basically stupid and has only got by on luck rather than good management.

  49. Scorpio @ 3484

    We stopped buying @ Woolworths/Safeway when they decided to refuse Debit Cards about a month or so ago.

  50. [We stopped buying @ Woolworths/Safeway when they decided to refuse Debit Cards about a month or so ago.]

    this has hit tasmanians more they way about 80 percent have debit cards through credit unions, some one even told me at woolies i would like to know this
    that big bank do not offer debit cards is that correct

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