Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

• Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

• Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

• Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

• Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

Comments Page 35 of 36
1 … 34 35 36

  1. [tonyowright | 24 seconds ago

    #qt Paul Keating had a description for attacks like this: being savaged by a dead sheep.]

    LOL.

  2. [Ahh, from from the Dancing Queen:]
    Hockey was of course the minister for financial regulation when HIH collapsed. So he has pretty low standards.

  11. [Hunt far more effective than Abbott.]

    Gawd that ain’t saying much! Most significant policy failure of the last 20 years?! C’mon, the guy’s totally OTT.

  12. Gp @ 1705

    Possibly an actionable statement, I believe, following the strong criticisms by a judge of the ACCC’s actions in trying to prove just that.

  14. [Oh wait for it… Hunt is about to play the Last Post.]

    Funny, I was thinking the same thing too. It’s a bit like an ANZAC Day address by an Army Chaplin.

    I wonder where they are going to put the monument? 😉

  15. zombiemao

    using the death of others to score political points is the lowest of the low #qt 1 minutes ago from Echofon Retweeted by you and 2 others

  22. [Only people responsible for the collapse of HIH are Jody Rich and Rodney Adler, among others.]
    So that means Garrett has no case to answer to.

  24. OK, OK, agreed – the Abbott benchmark is not high.

    Nevertheless, someone coming to the issue ‘cold’ would give Hunt higher debating marks than Abbott. IMO, Hunt’s party stocks would be rising. He started on this issue months ago. He is making a good censure motion speech. He is doing an effective job.

  29. The systemic problem is not that the Westminister system of Ministerial responsibility is gone.

    The problem is that we do not have a recognised and effective replacement.

  30. Great point:

    GrogsGamut

    people don’t know if they have foil insulation? Don’t people ask questions before letting people put stuff in their house?? 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  31. [Nevertheless, someone coming to the issue ‘cold’ would give Hunt higher debating marks than Abbott. ]
    Yeah he is a good debater. Pity for him he has to sell socialism as the Liberal’s key environmental policy.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 35 of 36
1 … 34 35 36