Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The latest fortnightly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57.5-42.5, up from 56.5-43.5 last time. Labor are up a point to 47 per cent on the primary vote, while the Coalition are down one to 37 per cent.

It’s all happening in New South Wales:

• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports David Clarke is believed likely to survive tonight’s preselection challenge from David Elliott with moderate support. (UPDATE: Clarke wins 50-36) Some interesting background detail from Keane: “The Campbell-Hawke assault on Clarke had its origins in a swift and cleverly executed turnover of delegates in Clarke’s preselection in late 2008 by Hawke, with most of the targets under the belief that Hawke was operating with Clarke’s imprimatur. Instead, Hawke removed or displaced nine preselectors and installed his own nominees, delivering an 18-vote turnaround that transformed Clarke’s preselection from comfortable to very challenging.” Deborah Snow of the Sydney Morning Herald reports former Opposition Leader Peter Collins has come out swinging at Clarke in support of David Elliott, saying Clarke was paying the price for blocking Elliott in federal Mitchell and state Riverstone.

• The quid pro quo for moderates supporting David Clarke is said to include the dropping of a preselection challenge against moderate incumbent Greg Pearce by Richard Quinn, and a smoothing of the way for Robyn Parker in the marginal seat of Maitland in lieu of her failure to retain her upper house position. Whoever gets the nod in Maitland will have things made easier by the announcement this week that Labor member Frank Terenzini will not seek another term.

Bevan Shields of the Lithgow Mercury reports Orange councillor Sam Romano will challenge Nationals MP John Cobb for preselection in Calare.

Caryn Metcalfe of the Penrith Press reports Hawkesbury mayor Bart Bassett has been preselected as state Liberal candidate for Londonderry.

Macarthur preselection victim Pat Farmer reckons the people of Camden are begging for him to represent them in state parliament. According to Matthew Ward of the Macarthur Chronicle, his main rivals for Liberal preselection would be Camden councillor Michael Cottrell and former Camden councillor Rob Elliott, with “possible candidates” including Camden mayor Chris Patterson or, if Patterson, won’t run, Citi Cycle Classic organiser Paul Hillbrick. Reports suggests it is Patterson’s for the taking if he wants it.

Hamish Coffee in comments advises Brent Thomas has defeated Right faction colleague Greg Holland for Labor preselection in Hughes.

• Not sure how much it was in doubt, but the ABC reports Damian Hale will seek another term in Solomon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,800 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Interesting that Albo allowed the censure motion (which was totally unexpected!) rather than forcing a suspension of standing orders.

  2. No 1652

    No it doesn’t. Abbott has always said that Joyce, in effect, is a tactical appointment. He cuts through and will therefore be useful against an otherwise quite popular government.

  3. The Government would have been foolish to deny the Censure Motion. Clearly the issue is an important enough national issue to debate. It would have looked like they had something to run from.

  4. GP @ 1658

    If so, there must be a backbencher, an unrequited Opposition Spokesperson for Finance, fuming at the bs being served up by the Opposition Economics B Team.

  5. tonyowright

    #qt Abbott claims to be speaking on behalf of those who have died, had their houses burnt down and their houses electrified. He’s a deity? less than a minute ago from web

    And from a fellow Bludger Twitter Name Changed to protect the foolish :-):

    Generic Person

    Garrett says he has always taken safety seriously – only after multiple deaths. #qt less than 5 seconds ago from TweetDeck

  6. PBers who are in the habit of denigrating Hunt’s political skills may have to think again.

    It was Hunt who started running with the issue before Christmas.

  7. The Opposition know Garrett won’t go but that doesn’t mean they flog it for all it’s worth. It keeps Labor bad news on the headlines so it wins them votes.

    Labor knew Downer wouldn’t go over the AWB but they continued.

    You can’t blame either for trying to make as much as they can out of the other’s misery.

  8. crazyjane13

    RT @purserj: If Ministers are responsible for deaths under departmental projects, then Abbott has to answer for his time in Health & IR #qt 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck Retweeted by zombiemao

  9. [PBers who are in the habit of denigrating Hunt’s political skills may have to think again.

    It was Hunt who started running with the issue before Christmas.]

    What has Hunt achieved? Apart from 6,000 job losses.

  10. [No it doesn’t. Abbott has always said that Joyce, in effect, is a tactical appointment. He cuts through]
    This is ridiculous reasoning. Why didn’t he give him regional affairs, or something like that? Giving him finance was nothing but a massive mistake.

  11. Hear Hear:

    mfarnsworth

    #qt Garrett is putting a cogent case about the prevailing state-based regulatory regime and the training program he added to it. 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  12. I think that most in the ALP will be thankful right up to the election that Abbott gave Barnaby finance. Putting economic illiterates up front prior to budget gives the ALP so many ways to cut the Oopo down.

    The only thing the Libs could do better is to make Julie Bishop shadow treasurer again, maybe with special responsibility for copywrite matters on the side??:)

  13. [Putting economic illiterates up front prior to budget gives the ALP so many ways to cut the Oopo down.]
    And it can be guaranteed that Joyce will say some stupid things after the budget, which Hockey will then have to contradict.

  14. Wayne and Joe will front the NPC after the budget. If Lindsay were to appear as well then Barnaby would have to as well. Let’s see.

  15. [The attacks against Joyce haven’t stuck.]
    Yeah, everyone thought he was an incompetent fool BEFORE he became shadow finance minister, the last few weeks have simply proved it.
    [If Lindsay were to appear as well then Barnaby would have to as well. Let’s see.]
    Barnyard just looked NERVOUS at the Press Club a few weeks ago. Maybe the experience will do him good, but I doubt it.

  16. FFS from Sunrise:

    sunriseon7

    TUESDAY: Mr Garrett, the time has come to say fair’s fair. Or has it? We’ll examine his precarious position and whether he’ll survive. #qt 3 minutes ago from TweetDeck

  17. GP @ 1683

    Rubbish. Everyone from the Govt to the Media to the Governor of the Reserve Bank have been getting stuck into him, and rightly so.

    I think the mud will stick.

  18. [“Ignored the advice from the opposition?” I don’t know where to start.]
    That’s almost as funny as Liberals quoting union advice.

  19. Ahh, from from the Dancing Queen:

    JoeHockey

    KR will regret calling PG a “first class minister”-what a standard! less than 20 seconds ago from mobile web

  20. [KKK could instantly increase her vote with the male voters, by doing her own bikini stunt.]
    You’ve started drinking early today HTT.

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