Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5, compared with 53-47 at the previous such poll early last month. Morgan’s phone polls consistently give Labor lower ratings than its headline face-to-face polls. The poll was conducted on the back of a survey of 659 respondents to ascertain views on climate change, which found support for the government’s carbon emissions trading scheme down four points to 46 per cent and opposition up five points to 36 per cent.
To demonstrate that those who believe nothing happens over the silly season aren’t looking hard enough:
• The federal government’s much ballyhooed plan to reform regulation of political funding appears to have ended with a whimper. Whereas former Special Minister of State John Faulkner said last year the reforms would “definitely be in place before the next election”, his successor Joe Ludwig is refusing to make any commitments regarding the timing or content of any legislation. It was reported in October that the government and the opposition were close to agreeing on a package including limits on campaign spending and donations, increases in public funding to parties to cover the loss, and restriction of political advertising by third parties including unions and lobby groups. As part of the deal, the Coalition would drop its opposition to slashing the threshold for public disclosure of donations, which it voted down in the Senate last year with the support of Steve Fielding, and Labor would include union affiliation fees in a ban on donations from corporations, third parties and associated entities. The latter measure crucially met opposition from union leaders concerned it would reduce their influence. Furthermore, a leaked memo from Labor MP Michael Danby argued a move from private to public funding would be a bonanza for the Greens which they could use to target Labor-held inner-city seats. The scheme’s opponents have a handy weapon in the grave political difficulty involved in increasing public funding to political parties, which Danby argues would need to increase by a factor of 10 to keep them operating at their current level. In response to the obvious objection that the proposed package included spending caps, Danby argues that such mechanisms are untested and possibly unconstitutional.
• Meanwhile, Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW Electoral Commissioner Colin Barry has told a parliamentary committee that state legislation to introduce public funding was “close to unworkable”, making it very unlikely the measure will be introduced before the next election.
• Loretta Johnston of the Launceston Examiner reports that a decision by the Right faction not to challenge the Left over the succession to Duncan Kerr in the federal seat of Denison indicates a deal has been struck which will leave Bass clear for confirmed starter Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley and former manager at Launceston General Hospital. However, it’s also noted that the Prime Minister has been “tipped to take particular interest in the seat”, and will be able to direct the national executive to take action if a candidate he prefers comes forward. The report names state Bass candidate Michelle Cripps as a potential alternative if she does not win a seat in the state election. However, Danielle Blewett of The Examiner surprisingly offers that the Prime Minister has “made it clear he wanted a man to run for Bass after the recent distress experienced by incumbent Bass MHR Jodie Campbell”, according to “Labor sources”.
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports the Western Australian ALP is struggling to find a federal candidate for Cowan to replace Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly, who stood aside a month ago because he was too closely linked to Brian Burke, as almost everybody in local politics suffers the same problem. Two names mentioned as possibilities are Karen Brown, former West Australian deputy editor, current chief-of-staff to Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful candidate for Mount Lawley at the 2008 state election, and Sam Roe, an “ALP staffer”.
• Contrary to earlier reports that they were pushed as much as jumped, Paul Toohey of The Daily Telegraph reports Fowler MP Julia Irwin and Throsby MP Jennie George were offered extra terms due to the Prime Minister’s determination to avoid factional conflicts over who would succeed them.
• The Camden Haven Courier reports there are three candidates for Nationals preselection in Lyne, which was won at a 2008 by-election by independent Rob Oakeshott after Mark Vaile’s retirement: Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, Taree legal practitioner Quentin Schneider and Port Macquarie electrical contractor Jamie Harrison.
• Antony Green lays out possible federal election dates, noting when double dissolution and half-Senate elections are due as well as the complicating factors of school holidays, long weekends and sporting events.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published the final report for the Queensland federal redistribution, complete with individual maps for the redrawn seats.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is conducting an inquiry in the New South Wales automatic enrolment scheme, legislation for which was enacted last month. The closing date for submissions is next Friday; the committee is schedule to report on February 25.
• Business SA has published a wish list of state constitutional and electoral reform. This includes two features the government hoped to put to an all-or-nothing referendum in conjunction with the next election: cutting upper house members’ terms from eight years to four, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism. Also recommended are the introduction of compulsory enrolment, which I actually thought had been done a couple of months ago; optional preferential voting (which has always seemed to me a no-brainer – but then has so has its logical corollary, optional voting); abolition of ticket votes in the upper house with a requirement that voters number only as many candidates as there are vacancies (which raises problems if that number is 22, as it would be if you abandoned eight-year terms); abolition of South Australia’s unusual mechanism to “save” informal lower house votes by deeming partially completed ballots to have followed the relevant party’s registered how-to-vote card (which would be logical, perhaps even necessary, if optional preferential voting was introduced); a strengthened “truth in advertising” clause (a cure worse than the disease, as Democratic Audit has noted – the government got it right when it made misleading advertising grounds for declaring a result void if it may have affected the result); and by-elections when sitting members resign from their party (not entirely sure what I think about this). Among the recommended reforms for parliament is appointing outsiders as Speaker and President.
• Hobart’s Taste food festival turned ugly just before new year, following what Matthew Denholm of The Australian calls a “heated arm-waving confrontation” between Elise Archer and Sue Hickey, respectively current and former state Liberal candidates for Denison. Two witnesses pointed the finger of blame firmly at Archer: festival director and unsuccessful Liberal preselection aspirant Marti Zucco, who subsequently quit the Liberal Party over parliamentary leader Will Hodgman’s failure to act against Archer, and Hobart deputy mayor and Greens candidate Helen Burnet. The latter was allegedly told by Archer’s husband, former state party president Dale Archer, to “f*** off” when she intervened on Hickey’s behalf. Hodgman ordered Archer to apologise to Hickey, which she did by email. At issue was whether there were too many lawyers in parliament: Hickey had argued there was, and Archer – a lawyer and, like Zucco, a Hobart alderman – expressed a strong view to the contrary. Matthew Denholm further notes that Archer is associated with the Right, whereas Hickey is a moderate. Various reports in the aftermath of the incident have focused on a rift in the party between moderates and the Right, with the latter evidently having gained ascendancy. Hickey had withdrawn as a candidate a fortnight previously as she did not wish for her business to forego government contracts, as required of parliamentarians by an onerous provision in the state constitution. She was replaced on the Liberal ticket by Richard Lowrie, a manager with Hobart catamaran manufacturers Incat.
• Further upsetting the previously smooth-travelling Tasmanian Liberal applecart is news that Franklin candidate Jillian Law – described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as “delightful Huon Valley Liberal candidate and grandmother” – received an email purportedly from a party insider which said Right powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz was “very, very angry” with her, and would “be doing what he can to see you are not elected”. The email also informed Law she was “offside” with Will Hodgman, the party’s sole member for Franklin, as she had been “running about the Huon Valley telling everyone he is second to you” in terms of local support.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reviews the 2010 electoral landscape.
Yeah it’s not great, but it’s still better than the party of NO (Greens).
I am voting Liberal at the next state election anyway. Labor deserves to be turfed out, but the government should be handed over to a responsible group and not overgrown student politicians who have no pragmatism or appreciation of real life (Greens).
It comes into consideration as to how much Labor thinks it needs to negotiate with the Greens (party) in order to retain sufficent individual Green voter preferences.
So are you asserting that the Greens will get more of their policies enacted through electing Libs? Or is it just more party of NO, in that you prefer 100% of nothing than 80% of something? (e.g. federal Greens vote on ETS)
Yeah, you’re right, there should be more Greens in the WA parliament so that those things can be stopped.
#Sam
In federal elections the preference choice for Greens voters is dismal. Ultimately, it’s either tweedle-dee or tweedle-dum.
So you prefer 100% of nothing than 80% of something. I see.
This is yet another reason why the Greens are unelectable. Real life doesn’t work that way.
Only for those Green voters that see life as a single issue and nothing else
Yeah, it’s reasonable to think that it would come into consideration, but it doesn’t. The ALP are very eager to get Green preferences, even in otherwise safe seats. A few seats are “key” (usually high-profile or marginal) and that’s where they focus negotiations.
Of course the territory could shift dramatically next election, with the ALP looking seriously at 8%+ swing seats. If the Greens figure in those seats (and with an average primary vote of 8%+ nationally they usually do), they’ll have a place at the table. Even without those seats there are always Senate preferences to negotiate.
so, TTH, do you have any explanation for the consistent trend to Labor in the polls, all of them?
#106
In respect of the ETS Rudd has offered 0% (that is a 5-25% reduction does sfa) and the Greens are looking at 0-100% (25%-40%). So I think the lectures on reality are a little mis-placed.
PLEASE….
Can someone here tell me who to donate to for earthquake relief in Haiti.
Call me naive, but I’ve tried to see if Tim Costello’s World Vision has anything to do with it, but Google is mute.
We need to find an organization to which to donate money that won’t spend 99c in the dollar on “administration” fees and charges.
Does anyone have a suggestion as to where I could start?
Thanks for any suggestions,
BB.
P.S. Cynical suggestions not appreciated.
I suspect red necks have a range of etymologies.
When the doughty commandos of the two tiny Afrikaaner republics were fighting the might of the thoroughly undemocratic British Empire invaders they referred to British soldiers as ‘Rooi Neks’ aka Red Necks.
This is because the English necks turning a nasty red complexion when sunburnt.
Have you asked the Haitian Embassy/Consulate and see if they accept direct donations – or Stephen Smith’s office ?
Or perhaps Oxfam.
Harry, because:
(1) Rudd Govt never makes any hard decision.
(2) Rudd Govt gives away money
HSO @ 109
The only rational explanation would have to be all the boat peoples.
” Does anyone have a suggestion as to where I could start?”
Doctors Without Borders ar in Haitii and hav long experiencs of th corupton & mafia there who do steel donations given by govts
internatonal group
BB
I just googled ‘haiti relief donations’ and got quite a few hits. A quick squiz of some of the hits did not help much. There is something ‘viral’ going on, which I do not understand. There was also a warning about fraud.
Bushfire Bill: LP has a post with links to the appeals.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/01/15/some-haiti-earthquake-numbers/
Bushfire Bill
Posted Friday, January 15, 2010 at 10:18 pm | Permalink
PLEASE….
Can someone here tell me who to donate to for earthquake relief in Haiti.
re my #117 post
In case of my earlier post was missed about Doctors without Borders ,
giving any money to th Haitii Govt will not get to th people Th UN hav a long problam with govt corupton in Haitii and of th mafia who steel donatons from eople whn they get it
as i said earlier Doctors without Borders ar there in Haitii & ar experiensed with that stuff , and hav hospitals in haitii as well per a docd I saw about 12 mths ago
and this Group ar all over th world
BB, Red Cross is usually pretty straight forward in terms of proportion of money received that goes to maintaining the organisation versus what they spend on helping with the disaster. They are a standing organisation so do need $ to maintain that, but as far as I’, aware don’t rip off donations. I usually give my $ to them or Medecin san frontiere.
You’re probably aware that Haiti is a problem in terms of getting aid in due to the port being buggered by the earthquake and the airport being overwhelmed by the volume of traffic and lack of fuel to get planes out again.
I think it’s going to be something of a ghastly mess for a while. There are bodies piled up in the streets with there being no capacity to move them elsewhere.
doc was on all th time & money Bill Clinton spent trying to help Haitii , and faild
Finns and BW, you’re not supposed to help TTH, you silly cloth eared bints.
Another vote here for MSF (Doctors Without Borders).
See the “How your funds are used” graphic on their donation page.
They can’t help themselves, HSO, they have such generous natures.
Greens sell out Climate Change
Abbott goes on TV pretendin to be an environmentist , to con th “left” Liberal voters that by extenson of being an environmntist he is therefore a CC convert
and so get back th “left” Lib vote
we know if you ar invironmentist then you believe in CC being man made , yet Abbot is not a CC believer and so clearly he is NOT a reel environmentist So Abbot was conning and spinning to flsely chase votes
MSN rewarded him by th headlines , so Abbott was feeling chufy , until rudd etc return and show th Abbottis sham , heis not a CC believer its man made
Little did Abbott exprect th Greens would treachously sell out there own CC creditendals , and applaud Abbotts environentist approach ! WITH th implicaton Abbott supports CC !
Such cheap politcal Greens popularism has sold out th Greens crediblity on CC , cheaply chashin publisity DESPITE knowing Abbott was pretendin to be a CC suporter when they know he is not
hope all greens ar appaledat Greens Senator Hanson Young selling out Greens CC integrity What Greens should hav done is to say Abbotts promises will ONLY be viewed postivly
1/IF Abbott accwepts environment problams ar part of CC and
2/ IF therefore Abbott publicly says CC is man made and
3/ IF Abbott says he suports a World agreed agreement to mitigat CC
alas Greens hav sold out there soul for publisity
whats th greatest threat to environment , CC
if you do not believe in CC you can not reel beleive in solving th big enviro problams
What th
zoomster, they are silly cloth eared bints, maybe of generous natures, but now TTH won’t respond to the question. Mind you, he doesn’t usually respond to awkward questions anyway.
Ron – #126
Complete and utter rot (and gibberish)
HSO
you have to have answers to do that.
*goes to ask sandman about cloth-eared bints, where they am, what they is*
Now, Ron, don’t be cruel.
You KNOW Greens do better under a Liberal government. They can be constantly appalled at what the government’s doing (or not doing) and can chatter endlessly about what should be done.
But under Labor, when things are actually being done, they can only oppose, because otherwise they run the risk of their less-loony supporters leaking back.
You would know young Peter, being a master of it.
More Haiti donations linkage.
http://hoydenabouttown.com/20100115.7154/quickhit-haiti-donation-links/
Zoomster #131 ,
i apologise profuse
thought Greens may hab been able to rebut my logics , but alas , you ar rite
You’re not wrong, zoomster. And now I suggest the next entertaining episode of Ron versus Peter Young is about to erupt and Troothy will be flat out trying to get a word in edgewise from the tinnie somewhere out off Townsville pushing those wretched boat people out to sea. Puzzling all the time why the blasted polls wont do what they are supposed to do, i.e., show the electorate waking up to that fraud KRudd.
Oh how true 🙂 And have you noticed on a related subject that since a certain script has been created that certain members of the Greens Faithful haven’t posted – knowing that their ramblings are no longer being heard ? 🙂
#132 – Gary Bruce
I am thankful you agree with my orignal post, even though you couldn’t resist the opportunity to take a cheap shot at me.
Boerwar, cloth eared bints are dear creatures of a young child’s imagination. She was rather cross with someone whom she loved dearly, but who had acted in a way she did not understand or agree with, in this instance.
There’s any number of these creatures and it’s a pity we grow up just to call people names like wog or red neck or Barnyard or Mistah Rabbot.
I do apologise for 138. Sometimes I’m just bad.
Well obviously leadership problems are key. Turnbull was a steaming turd and was doing an impersonation of being Rudd Lite, so he had to go. Abbott’s not the best, but he’s like the Kim Beazley of the Liberal Party… experienced but not overly interesting.
Plus Labor has been doing well with the economy, mind you it’s been the resources boom that has pulled us through the worst of times.
I have a feeling the Rudd government may suffer a fate similar to that of Gough Whitlam… big on idea’s and idealogy, but not any substance(or money) to back it up with. I mean other than the idealogical bullshit like Australia cutting 5% of 1% of our global emmissions we put out, and taking photos of whales(oh hang on that was last years policy), and saying sorry for everything the Australian Government has ever done, when the hell are we going to see REAL REFORMS?
Heck call John Howard whatever you want, but he did campaign for a GST in his first term which was a massive reform, meanwhile we got Rudd down in Parliament house debating on whether Australia’s gonna cut 2 tenths of f all in greenhouse emmissions by 2020 or not. Who cares?! Sure it would be great if we could stop China, India and the USA polluting the Earth, but unfortunately Kev isn’t the leader of the universe.
I’m upgrading article 13 of comment moderation guidelines: from now on, any comment that mentions STFU will be deleted. If you ask me, the facility is strictly for losers.
William
Are you going to run a dedicated thread for fed election predictions/date of election?
Peter Young
Posted Friday, January 15, 2010 at 11:23 pm | Permalink
#132 – Gary Bruce
“I am thankful you agree with my orignal post, even though you couldn’t resist the opportunity to take a cheap shot at me.”
any poster can look back and see Gary said no such thing
Falsely implying he did may giv you pleasure , but misrepresentaton by you of anothr poster you may not undrstand actualy reflects on you (poorly) and no ones els
hiding behind a key bord is not brave
William, you have been allowing said acronym in other contexts other than in reference to the Greasemonkey application.
Besides, the application is neither permanent or absolute. It can be toggled on and off, and it is possible to opt to see individual postings by clicking on them.
If you ask me, listening to interminable whining is strictly for losers.
Harry “Snapper” Organs
Posted Friday, January 15, 2010 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
“I do apologise for 138. Sometimes I’m just bad.”
and it is about time you finaly repented
I’m not sure that would work, Gusface. People would just continue to discuss the subject on the main threads like they always do, leading to a lot of unproductive directions to take the topic elsewhere.
It’s not the acronym that I’m banning, Polyquats. I suppose what you say about seeing individual postings, of which I was not aware, mitigates my opinion of those who use it. What I will say is that those who talk about it the most are invariably the most disruptive people here, and differ from their antagonists only in the set of political orthodoxies to which they subscribe.
William
I suppose it would good to allow one prediction/date per poster
ie 96 seats/21 august 2010
which btw is my prediction
just an idea
🙂
William, I recall many moons ago being consigned to moderation for using w t f, which also seems to be allowed lately. Have you been changing the rules?
I did agree with you about said greasemonkey application, being content to scroll past, until I got sucked into a fruitless argument last weekend. Now I have extra protection. If the arguments start to wander down predictable paths, I can toggle on Greasemonkey, and keep up with everything else that is going on. Before I used to close the tab. Then, of course, the price of avoiding the garbage was missing the good stuff too.
It’s about choice.
For donations for Haiti relief one option is Plan International. They have been doing a lot of work there before the quake so probably have a very good idea of what is required where.
http://plan-international.org/where-we-work/americas/haiti