Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5, compared with 53-47 at the previous such poll early last month. Morgan’s phone polls consistently give Labor lower ratings than its headline face-to-face polls. The poll was conducted on the back of a survey of 659 respondents to ascertain views on climate change, which found support for the government’s carbon emissions trading scheme down four points to 46 per cent and opposition up five points to 36 per cent.
To demonstrate that those who believe nothing happens over the silly season aren’t looking hard enough:
• The federal government’s much ballyhooed plan to reform regulation of political funding appears to have ended with a whimper. Whereas former Special Minister of State John Faulkner said last year the reforms would “definitely be in place before the next election”, his successor Joe Ludwig is refusing to make any commitments regarding the timing or content of any legislation. It was reported in October that the government and the opposition were close to agreeing on a package including limits on campaign spending and donations, increases in public funding to parties to cover the loss, and restriction of political advertising by third parties including unions and lobby groups. As part of the deal, the Coalition would drop its opposition to slashing the threshold for public disclosure of donations, which it voted down in the Senate last year with the support of Steve Fielding, and Labor would include union affiliation fees in a ban on donations from corporations, third parties and associated entities. The latter measure crucially met opposition from union leaders concerned it would reduce their influence. Furthermore, a leaked memo from Labor MP Michael Danby argued a move from private to public funding would be a bonanza for the Greens which they could use to target Labor-held inner-city seats. The scheme’s opponents have a handy weapon in the grave political difficulty involved in increasing public funding to political parties, which Danby argues would need to increase by a factor of 10 to keep them operating at their current level. In response to the obvious objection that the proposed package included spending caps, Danby argues that such mechanisms are untested and possibly unconstitutional.
• Meanwhile, Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW Electoral Commissioner Colin Barry has told a parliamentary committee that state legislation to introduce public funding was “close to unworkable”, making it very unlikely the measure will be introduced before the next election.
• Loretta Johnston of the Launceston Examiner reports that a decision by the Right faction not to challenge the Left over the succession to Duncan Kerr in the federal seat of Denison indicates a deal has been struck which will leave Bass clear for confirmed starter Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley and former manager at Launceston General Hospital. However, it’s also noted that the Prime Minister has been “tipped to take particular interest in the seat”, and will be able to direct the national executive to take action if a candidate he prefers comes forward. The report names state Bass candidate Michelle Cripps as a potential alternative if she does not win a seat in the state election. However, Danielle Blewett of The Examiner surprisingly offers that the Prime Minister has “made it clear he wanted a man to run for Bass after the recent distress experienced by incumbent Bass MHR Jodie Campbell”, according to “Labor sources”.
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports the Western Australian ALP is struggling to find a federal candidate for Cowan to replace Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly, who stood aside a month ago because he was too closely linked to Brian Burke, as almost everybody in local politics suffers the same problem. Two names mentioned as possibilities are Karen Brown, former West Australian deputy editor, current chief-of-staff to Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful candidate for Mount Lawley at the 2008 state election, and Sam Roe, an “ALP staffer”.
• Contrary to earlier reports that they were pushed as much as jumped, Paul Toohey of The Daily Telegraph reports Fowler MP Julia Irwin and Throsby MP Jennie George were offered extra terms due to the Prime Minister’s determination to avoid factional conflicts over who would succeed them.
• The Camden Haven Courier reports there are three candidates for Nationals preselection in Lyne, which was won at a 2008 by-election by independent Rob Oakeshott after Mark Vaile’s retirement: Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, Taree legal practitioner Quentin Schneider and Port Macquarie electrical contractor Jamie Harrison.
• Antony Green lays out possible federal election dates, noting when double dissolution and half-Senate elections are due as well as the complicating factors of school holidays, long weekends and sporting events.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published the final report for the Queensland federal redistribution, complete with individual maps for the redrawn seats.
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is conducting an inquiry in the New South Wales automatic enrolment scheme, legislation for which was enacted last month. The closing date for submissions is next Friday; the committee is schedule to report on February 25.
• Business SA has published a wish list of state constitutional and electoral reform. This includes two features the government hoped to put to an all-or-nothing referendum in conjunction with the next election: cutting upper house members’ terms from eight years to four, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism. Also recommended are the introduction of compulsory enrolment, which I actually thought had been done a couple of months ago; optional preferential voting (which has always seemed to me a no-brainer – but then has so has its logical corollary, optional voting); abolition of ticket votes in the upper house with a requirement that voters number only as many candidates as there are vacancies (which raises problems if that number is 22, as it would be if you abandoned eight-year terms); abolition of South Australia’s unusual mechanism to “save” informal lower house votes by deeming partially completed ballots to have followed the relevant party’s registered how-to-vote card (which would be logical, perhaps even necessary, if optional preferential voting was introduced); a strengthened “truth in advertising” clause (a cure worse than the disease, as Democratic Audit has noted – the government got it right when it made misleading advertising grounds for declaring a result void if it may have affected the result); and by-elections when sitting members resign from their party (not entirely sure what I think about this). Among the recommended reforms for parliament is appointing outsiders as Speaker and President.
• Hobart’s Taste food festival turned ugly just before new year, following what Matthew Denholm of The Australian calls a “heated arm-waving confrontation” between Elise Archer and Sue Hickey, respectively current and former state Liberal candidates for Denison. Two witnesses pointed the finger of blame firmly at Archer: festival director and unsuccessful Liberal preselection aspirant Marti Zucco, who subsequently quit the Liberal Party over parliamentary leader Will Hodgman’s failure to act against Archer, and Hobart deputy mayor and Greens candidate Helen Burnet. The latter was allegedly told by Archer’s husband, former state party president Dale Archer, to “f*** off” when she intervened on Hickey’s behalf. Hodgman ordered Archer to apologise to Hickey, which she did by email. At issue was whether there were too many lawyers in parliament: Hickey had argued there was, and Archer – a lawyer and, like Zucco, a Hobart alderman – expressed a strong view to the contrary. Matthew Denholm further notes that Archer is associated with the Right, whereas Hickey is a moderate. Various reports in the aftermath of the incident have focused on a rift in the party between moderates and the Right, with the latter evidently having gained ascendancy. Hickey had withdrawn as a candidate a fortnight previously as she did not wish for her business to forego government contracts, as required of parliamentarians by an onerous provision in the state constitution. She was replaced on the Liberal ticket by Richard Lowrie, a manager with Hobart catamaran manufacturers Incat.
• Further upsetting the previously smooth-travelling Tasmanian Liberal applecart is news that Franklin candidate Jillian Law – described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as “delightful Huon Valley Liberal candidate and grandmother” – received an email purportedly from a party insider which said Right powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz was “very, very angry” with her, and would “be doing what he can to see you are not elected”. The email also informed Law she was “offside” with Will Hodgman, the party’s sole member for Franklin, as she had been “running about the Huon Valley telling everyone he is second to you” in terms of local support.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reviews the 2010 electoral landscape.
Ooops his website must be cached by my ISP. 😉
Keith@43:
Lack of discipline! The young are going to the dogs! Lack of stfu, should they lack discipline!
Now, in my day…..
😆
Well I couldn’t expect a right wing comment to be made on Labor’s ABC without it being a Coalition Minister.
If you’ve ever watched the program Q & A you would know they stack the show with far-flung leftie types with wool skiivy’s and tie dye hair cuts. Not a normal one among them.
Or maybe the ABC got it wrong again?
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2792564.htm?site=thedrum
If by that you mean they have a lack of rednecks like yourself, I agree. But I think that is appropriate. Rednecks are not really bright enough to express a poltiical opinion, in my observation here.
Actually my views reflect a large portion of Australia.
You should get out of that inner city sometime and come see the real world.
Yep, about 45.5% according to Morgan 🙂
It is sad how the term “Red Neck” has been debased over the years, the original Red Necks were coal miners in the American Sth fighting to stop exploitation by the mine owners.
They marched to protest but the mine owners private army prevented them, they even dropped bombs from ‘planes on the miners.
So “red necks” from the red bandanas they wore around their necks, were the origins of the US union movement.
The desert?
Tho the analogy is about right.
Barren lifeless and dry
Lol. I’m from Wagga. I think I am more mainstream than you, redneck.
Did they destroy U.S Coal Mining industry like they did with the U.S car industry?
Toyota’s going great guns with a deunionised workforce, hows GM faring these days?
Sorry Truthy they do not, you hope they do. Qld is the only state where more people live outside the capital city. But when you include th Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, sorry SE Qld has the population.
Politics is about numbers, so unless you want to advocate a vote of greater value in “the bush” – you’re rooted.
Hey redneck, didn’t your say you voted against Howard because of workchoices?
Sprung! You rednecks ain’t too good at making crap uo and sounding convincing.
HTT,
What did you have against WorkChoices?
By the way redneck, you still haven’t proven that your Indian doctor didn’t come here on a boat as an asylum seeker?
The boats… everywher I look… the boats
You are like Colonel Kurtz but for boats.
It is important always to be able to see all issues in politics from all sides. Otherwise you can mislead yourself about what is going on – Jeff Kennett is an example of that.
Thus the more Green and Coalition supporters who post comments here the better. A relative told me that just about every single person in their workplace said to them “How could you vote for x”. I told them that most of my colleagues would have said “How could you NOT vote for x”. We live in a democracy – get used to it.
ps – It helps when your partner disagrees with you on nearly every political issue! ( a bit like James Carville and Marilyn Matalin)
Buwahahahaha 😀
Actually it’s interesting you say that.
Inner city party lines are drawn and are some of the safest seats in the country, meaning that if you are inner city voter your vote will have 2 halfs of 1 tenths stuff all difference on the outcome of the federal election.
The seats that win and lose elections are the semi-urban outskirts and “rural” cities. Townsville just happens to be one of them.
So the last people the pollies should be listening to are those from the inner suburbs.
Maybe we should pack all the racist rednecks into one seat as well so we can ignore you… I mean… them…
And Indian Doctor is not going to sneak his way into the country on a leaky boat.
Australia is in desperate need of doctors, and I am sure he filled out all required paper work and forms required for entry and came via a legal plane trip, with passport and visa in hand.
Truthy
Labor politicians sold out the workers years ago. They simply ride on the back of workers until they can get themselves into comfy positions to schmooze up to big business (after all they have bucket loads of cash) and then get rewarded with sinecures e.g. Macquarie Bank when they retire from parliament.
Rubbish…. the Car Unions of the U.S and Workchoices show the extremes of both set of systems.
I actually don’t mind Unions as long as they fight for good pay for hard work. The U.S Car Union strangled the car companies to the point of collapse, even a fool can see that.
Oh blah. It’s easy to be Green – you only need one word – NO.
It’s easy to say NO and oppose. It’s hard to say YES and be part of the solution.
Tell me, you guys oppose ‘overdevelopment’, then why don’t all the inner city dwelling Greens refuse to live in Meriton blocks etc?
Hypocrisy is such a hard word…
Ahh, the Green’s theme song comes to mind
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpiIWMWWVco
Talking about the United Auto Workers union… the poor bastards are having to do it tough! Had to sell their $33 Million Dollar Lakeside retreat!
Jesus, how will the poor bastards cope? Next thing you know they will stop forcing the car companies to pay weekly wages to retired employee’s!
http://detnews.com/article/20100114/BIZ/1140340/UAW-to-sell-famed-Black-Lake-retreat
Allegory #73
Oh dear your emotions are running high now, causing you to lose it.
What percentage of people who voted Green at the 2007 federal election live in Meriton apartments?
Allegory
But then you have to be responsible for the result.
What, with poor people?
42% in inner sydney.
Thanks!
They see them on TV occassionally… it makes their hearts bleed, so they talk about it the next day with their friends over a (glass?) of hot latte and a danish fruit roll about their outrage no one is doing anything about it.
#78
WTF r u talking about?
Have you ever been to inner Sydney?
Have you ever lived in inner Sydney?
So is Abbott on a honeymoon? He at least has a net poistive approval rating 41/32.
Goodness 33% of Greens give him a tick and 29% of ALP voters. These people been sleeping under a rock the past decade?
Sample size less than 50.
Or is that their IQ?
I guess if they had a mannequin as Opposition leader it would still get people approving and voting for it.
They should do a poll of preferred Opposition Leader and add the choice of ‘nobody’.
TP, are you trying to get TTH elected?
PY
Never fear, your railway pylon cum home is safe
Thank you whoever wrote stfu.
So peaceful now. Why did I wait so long to install it?
Labor won several lower house seats “on the back of” Greens preferences in 2007, including:
Bass
Bennelong
Braddon
Brand
Brisbane
Chisholm
Corangamite
Dawson
Deakin
Denison
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Franklin
Fremantle
Hasluck
Hindmarsh
Jagajaga
Kingston
Leichhardt
Longman
Lyons
Macquarie
Melbourne Ports
Moreton
Page
Perth
Petrie
Richmond
Robertson
Solomon
Wakefield
That’s counting the seats where the percentages for the two leading candidates were both below 50% when the Greens were excluded and the Green preferences (usually the last to be distributed) pushed Labor over the 50% line. In some seats this saw Labor come from behind to win.
This is just how the cookie crumbles, no points to be scored here, but I hope for their sake you aren’t part of the ALP’s preference negotiation team.
What percentage of Green supporters follow the Green’s HTV cards?
Truthy –
In NSW they didn’t have to sell it. But they did!
To some developer mates.
The full story on this one has yet to be told.
A portion TTH, a portion. The actual portion is reflected in the election results. Yes we all know that North Queensland can throw up a Pauline Hanson, and many of us know that Pauline Hanson can get 10% of the national vote. 10% doesn’t form a government, it’s just enough to kill the Liberals changes for the next couple of decades, that is about all.
TTH, Australia is the most urbanised country in the would, in this country a lot of people have seen a little more than the back blocks of Queensland.
There’s no way to prove any answer to this question.
polyquat’s remaining so blissfully ignorant of alternate views.
I know Sam. I was just thinking about who would Green voters be more likely to vote for…Rudd or Abbott?
If a pollster rang me up I’d be answering that question strategically. Not that I think it would make much difference, or that everyone does that.
I don’t think there is much to be read from “X voters think such-and-such about leader of party Y” questions.
That’s why polyquat likes PB so much. Now he/she only gets to see his/her comments.
LOL. Oh yeah. Greens are gunna preference the Libs? How did that work out for you in 1995 where your preferences helped the NATIONAL bordbidge to be Premier in 1996?
How many Greens initiatives did he implement? Just askin, is all.
Allegory-
I wonder if you are leading the charge in Wagga Wagga over Labor’s broken promise for a new hospital in Wagga before the 2011 election?
Or would it be politically incorrect to criticise anything Labor does?
Well, (to be pedantic) that’s untested too, but it’s pretty clear from past elections they favour Labor parties. I know where you are heading with that, but it’s a hypothetical argument.
I mean who would Labor voters vote for in the absence of the Labor party? Or Liberal voters without the Liberal party? This stuff sort of get’s tested at by-elections, but only when the seats are safe. It’s pretty clear that if the Greens weren’t there those seats wouldn’t be won “off the back of” Green preferences and instead they would be won directly, but that’s not much use when analysing the current reality.
Adele Carles can thank the good LIBERAL voters of Fremantle for making her their MP – though it hasn’t helped the environment there with dredging of Fremantle Harbour and Lead Exports from Fremantle Port, despite inviting Crazy Colin to her Xmas Party 🙂
Federally they don’t have much choice as they have to preference someone. In many states it’s possible to extinguish and preference neither. You should expect more examples of that in coming elections.
Don’t count your chickens, yada-yada…