Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW

What Linda Silmaris of the Sunday Telegraph describes as “the first major poll since (Kristina Keneally) became leader” (last month’s Newspoll survey was partly conducted on Nathan Rees’s watch) finds NSW Labor in familiar dire straits, trailing the Coalition 29 per cent to 43 per cent on the primary vote and 56-44 on two-party preferred. The Greens are on 15 per cent, up six points on the 2007 election. For all that, Kristina Keneally’s personal ratings are remarkably robust: she leads Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier 42 per cent to 34 per cent, 45 per cent are satisfied with her against 25 per cent dissatisfied, 73 per cent (including “more than 70 per cent of polled Coalition supporters”) think her likeable, and only 5 per cent say she should wear the blame when Labor is defeated next March. The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from the usual Galaxy sample of 800.

UPDATE: Antony Green observes intriguing congruity between Nathan Rees’s first poll results and Kristina Keneally’s.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

138 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. Peter, thats right, NSW does have an interesting history of curruption, remember that the ALP lost back in the 50’s over curruption only to be replaced by a corrupt coalition government, pitty the poor children?
    Back to gambling, what do you make of this. Down here in the ALP nirvana of Victoria, the COALition ran this campaign for the reduction of the number of pokies, then they decided that they would oppose the Casino getting all these new pokies, they got good media etc and I thought that they were onto something. Anyway the ‘Age’ reported that after a phone call from Mr Packer, that the Ballieu opposition grasped the benefit of more pokies for our great State, and withdrew its oppostion. HAAAAAA

  3. I’m a bit bemused by this discussion about financial management. The NSW budget is OK, although longer term possibly unsustainable unless someone “takes on” the power and transport unions, with a bit of education and health reform thrown in. Iemma and Costa actually tried to do some of that, but did it poorly, cynically, and without even getting the Labor Council on side (and if the Labor Council won’t cop it, why should anyone else). Rees did a little bit with ferries but did not try very hard. But for avoidance of doubt, no one as far as I am aware is suggesting that NSW is suffering from extremely poor fiscal management.

    I can only guess it’s harking back to the days of Cain/Kirner and Bannon/Arnold (even Burke/Dowding/Lawrence), where fiscal disasters brought down state ALP governments. NSW isn’t suffering from this sort of problem.

    In any event, adequate financial management and a AAA credit rating is not of itself grounds for reelection. Just ask John Howard. In fact, in light of recent events, a AAA credit rating may not be worth the paper it’s written upon.

    The only point I would add is an obvious one: a balanced budget and AAA rating at the expense of spending on essential infrastructure and at the cost of your citizens and industry, is not equivalent to good overall public administration.

  4. #101

    Perhaps thats an argument for having constant changes of underwear. They start out clean but get smellier and smellier as times passes.
    The threat that there will be regular changes of underwear might act as an incentive for some of the wearers to keep their undies clean.
    But even so, it might get to a stage where, the wearers get used to sharing the dirty underwear – knowing there is no one else likely to come along with clean underwear.
    So maybe, a third player might act as an incentive for them to clean up their act.

  5. [Iemma and Costa actually tried to do some of that, but did it poorly, cynically, and without even getting the Labor Council on side (and if the Labor Council won’t cop it, why should anyone else)]
    Because the NSW Labor Council is a bunch of idiots that think it is great for governments to own coal power stations.

  6. Here is an article by John Birmingham in The Monthly detailing the state of NSW’s economy and problems with corruption.
    [New South Wales officially passed into recession in January this year after two quarters in which its economy shrank by 0.4% in the December quarter and 0.3% in the first three months of 2009….

    …The New South Wales economy, however, had been failing for much longer, unable to register more than half a per cent of growth in nine out of 15 quarters since September 2005. Its problems were exacerbated by the collapse of the world economy, not caused by it…

    …There is a terrible sense of things being wrong, right down at the core, when you read deeply into all of the available reports of corruption, maladministration and pure criminality in New South Wales – it’s as though a trickle-down theory of malignant ethics is at work.]
    http://www.themonthly.com.au/monthly-essays-john-birmingham-failed-state-new-south-wales-2180

  7. Is Labor about to drop the ill-fated CBD metro? Rozelle is in the heart of the electorate of Balmain. It is held for Labor by Verity Firth, a cabinet minister. Local ALP branches are incensed at the proposed metro and Firth is in the embarrassing position of trying to represent the electorate, whilst at the same time being bound by the cabinet decision to fast-track the metro. In addition the Greens are breathing down Labors neck in Balmain and stand a good chance of taking the seat in 2011.
    The Daily Telegraph reports that there has been a delay in the issuing of property acquisition notices for land required by the metro.
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/more-stalling-over-metro-rail-line/story-e6freuy9-1225821008505

  9. Dropping the metro would be a very smart move. Beats me why they were so insistent on building the damn thing in the first place.

  10. #109
    [ Beats me why they were so insistent on building the damn thing in the first place.]

    Thats a very good question. In the back of my mind is something about Costa being lobbied heavily and pushing a similar idea before he retired (hurt). Why Rees went with it is unfathomable. There was some suggestion it was to ensure a win in Balmain, in the expectation it would be warmly welcomed. If that was the case, it was a gross miscalculation. Some one knows the answer to your question, but I guess we will be kept in the dark again.

  11. #109

    If I had to guess, I will look into the people putting their hand up to do the light rail and following the donation trail to the ALP

    I am sure it is all above board and it is only a coincidence that this happens all the time in NSW

  12. congrats Jasmine in WA for th best posts of 111 read interstsingle post by janice2 Ladies just very clever

    Gary Bruce , asute coment , but still not undrstood He is saying a Labor thrashin in NSW means prob 3 by 4 yr terms of th Libs , 12 years , anyone wishing that is a moron So intersts of NSW he hopes a close result , but does not tink that will happen

    So Jasmine & othrs not quite with NSW positon , unlike WA & Q’ld mining base , NSW did rely for income from manufact and financal services Well World has changed and manufact mostly comes from Asia Then GFC cut th financal services down But GFC did more than thats , all States hd a housing boom , up went them house prises and in NSW as expect from histary they wne up more Peoples borrowd against those inflated prises , so when boom finish & house prises not holdth NSW peoples hav big debts

    both financal services industry & peoples less dispose income means less income for Govt and snowballs as less investmen so again less govt income NSW has AAA rating & trasury est surplus but has had no reel money for infrastruct , roads , hospitl updates othr than thin to keep status quo of thems plus new areas servise For th abov reasons

    NSW tried to get out of money problams with privatise electricity etc , unions & othrs against & unpopular NSW hav privitised alot of roads but , freeways But lack of money means not enuf into public transport like trains buses & basic infrastuct But in additon to make worser NSW Govt has not put its limitd moneys into these areas eithr making positon worse Also NSW Govt hav not put enuf efort into imrove th efecinsy of th overal transport networks

    So of couse voters ar not happy as they only want to se th results , and if not there then they simple blame govt , fair enuf Howevr reasons ar part histary re manufact relying , part financal services via GFC going down , part consumers hav big house bank debts vs there original house prises , consumer spend afect , lack of income for Govt , then desisons of Govt to prvatise , wrong prioitys in infrastruct , and lack of fixing eficiinsy of many services networks There ar othr polisy desisons also Govt should not hav made , but above just gives overviews , so 56/44 poll not a surprise

    Seeing NSW has a anti Corupton group to chek and does so wuith many convictons (normal to get corupton in any Country), th smear throwin from th Greens trash can be ignored , they ar empty latee irelevents , whose party motto to everyting is ‘no’ , but having no econamic viable based polisys themselves

    A majority of peoples rarely make a mistake in electons re who they want to governs them , and it seems they hav again , and not from & on mud raking talking feline far left posters coments here , but rathr on what i’ve partly listed: issues & beleived Govt polisy failuresv Rest is just window dressing

  15. Media release from KK dated 19 January 2010-

    The NSW Government has stopped the acquisition of properties for the Sydney
    Metro in the Rozelle area – until the NSW Government makes a final decision
    shortly on the project.
    A decision on the future of Sydney’s metro rail network will be announced late next
    month (February). But the decision would be after a proper Cabinet and Budget
    Committee process.
    http://www.premier.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/100119-metro.pdf

    I think we can take this as short-hand for the Metro being dumped.

    Keneally is going to have to come out with a definitive plan as to where her government is going in the next 12 months on transport. For over 12 months now the nort-west and south-west rail links have been on hold because of the Metro plans. Is that a wasted 12 months if she then reinstates them.

  18. Hamish Coffee #92

    What the NSW ALP got their budget WRONG by $1 billion from an estimate made 6 month earlier

    What price that they have not got an estimate correct 1.5 years in advance

    I take everything said by this government with a grain of salt, like building teh North West rail link, the metro etc

  19. Peter Young at 116

    I would be willing to bet that there have been numerous phone taps in place. And I bet they have those tapes as well.

    The way ICAC works, they’ll have someone in their sights… Maybe several people. But whether the outcome is of any broader political significance, we’ll have to wait and see.

  20. All Governments got their budget estimates wrong during the GFC. NSW is coming out of it strongly and its budget will be in surplus by the next election.

  21. Going back to matters transport – sorry just went over the earlier posts from Sunday & Monday.

    Just had three weeks in Hong Kong (3rd trip since 02/03) and marvelled yet again at the ‘Octopus’ card system to pay for seamless travel on the MTR (underground rail), small buses, private buses, ferries.

    Simply hold the card against the electronic reader – no need to take it out of a the wallet.

    Many of the buses just have a single fare cost (relatively short runs) others seem to have some ‘zone’ pricing (certainly for the MTR).

    This Octopus card technology has been used for years in HK – so what is going on in NSW?

    Why is it so difficult to get a similar system here for use on trains, buses (public & private) & ferries?

    While I’m beating the drum here – Cityrail, extend the Chatswood – Epping line under Carlingford, Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Norwest Park, Nirimba education precinct. And from Chatswood across to the Northern Beaches to create an ‘independent’ line from the northern beaches across the northern half of Sydney.

    And finally…
    why oh why was a vocal minority allowed to stop a rail bridge over the Lane Cove river to force a deeper tunnel under UTS Kuringai – so much so that the proposed station there was never built. In a hundred years from now – people will still ask why this occured!

  22. CK at 121

    They actually had a trial of an octopus system on Sydney private buses, although when it was going on it appeared that only schoolkids had the octopus cards. I didn’t actually know what it was, until a UK based friend of mine got the bus to my place and asked why, if we have Octopus, did we have to pay cash?

    The trial was abandoned, with some sort of reason given, what the reason was I forget, and the officially stated reason was probably a melange of lies, half truths and inapposite epehmera in any event. Amusingly, my local private buses then went completely back to 1980s technology, you know, where the driver asks where you are going, presses 15 buttons, and then a ticket prints which gets given to you. IIRC there was a story in my local paper about the bus company having to import very old spare parts for the “new” ticketing machines from some third world country or something, where they don’t use them anymore.

    My guess is that octopus is all far too hard without completely restructuring the fare system, along the lines of what Antony Green has spoken of at some length.

  23. Just thinking about that last post – I think it was the “oyster” system, not the “octopus” system, trialled in Sydney private buses.

  24. What a topsy-turvy world it can be from time-to-time.

    Which party spokesperson has declared himself opposed to selling off State assets?

    That’d be Brad Hazzard:

    [“What we’re effectively doing is selling off our future revenue stream, our future income for a quick hit, a quick fix now,” he said.

    “And of course the worry is, with this Government’s track record, it might be done with Labor mates who’ve paid large amounts through to the Labor Party.”

    Mr Hazzard says selling state assets to raise money for health, transport and education is only a temporary solution.

    “Where it’s going to get the money is irrelevant to the issue of are they simply flogging off these assets now for a short-term fix,” he said.]

    Of course, when it comes to selling off electricity generation assets he may have a different view in Government… but I guess everyone’s entitled to change their mind once enlightenment strikes.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/01/19/2796210.htm

  26. Rogan, the problem was point to point fares. In London everyone has daily, weekly etc tickets, or they buy individual fares. But all London bus fares are the same, so when you get on, your card is either recognised as having a daily, weekly etc, or it charges you a fare.

    To work for point to point fares, when you get on the bus, the card has to know which section you are in. When you get off, it also needs to know which section you are in so that it can charge you when you get off for your distance travelled. As with the current travel ten tickets, the driver would have keep the machines informed of which section the bus is in. If your pass didn’t work both getting on and off, or the sections were mucked up, you would be charged maximum distance fare. Getting all that to work correctly was too difficult.

    With timed tickets, the machine only needs to check whether you have a currently valid ticket when you get on the bus. With zonal fares, where you get off only matters if you get off the bus in a zone your ticket is not valid for.

    There is also a question of whether the testing system was sabotaged. It was measuring usage rather than the issuing of school bus passes and had the potential to cut the subsidy paid to private operators.

  28. #119
    [ Maybe several people. But whether the outcome is of any broader political significance, we’ll have to wait and see.]

    I agree.

    The ICAC only has power to investigate corruption in “government”. Thus calls to investigate the Currawong deal (a private deal between Unions NSW and a developer) are misguided.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/icac-urged-to-include-sale-of-currawong-in-mcgurk-probe-20100120-mlss.html

    If the ICAC finds corruption in “government”, it doesn’t matter whether it has political implications, involves politicians or only involves public servants. It will serve as a salutary lesson to all those contemplating corruption in the future.

    If it doesn’t find corruption, that will be great. The same salutary lesson will be served, because potential rogues will be aware the ICAC is prepared to act and investigate, rather than being a toothless tiger.

  29. Peter Young at 128

    Mostly, but not completely.

    Currawong (and any other private transaction) could (only) be investigated if it was caught in the vortex of corruption in government (such as by being part of a arrangement or understanding between relevant persons). For avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting that this is the case.

  30. [Peter, thats right, NSW does have an interesting history of curruption, remember that the ALP lost back in the 50’s over curruption only to be replaced by a corrupt coalition government, pitty the poor children?]
    Never happened.

    The ALP didn’t lose government until 1965, and the most prominent issue in that election was not corruption but state aid.

  35. PY – I hope they name it the “Peter Debnam Desalination Plant”. As the alternative to recycling stormwater, which Debnam took to the last election, the only purpose of the plant was to guarantee Sydney’s Water Supply (a strange synonym for “reelection of the ALP”) without the “yuck” factor.

    Frankly, I wouldn’t have thought Debnam was worth $1.9 billion of my money.

  36. #135

    Personally the recycling of storm water is not “offensive” to me. The waste of water when it rains, gushing down the gutters, is criminal. It my not need to be recycled into drinking water, but surely it could be used for other purposes, rather than rushing out to sea (then being sucked back into the desal plant, treated, and then drunk).

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