Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW

What Linda Silmaris of the Sunday Telegraph describes as “the first major poll since (Kristina Keneally) became leader” (last month’s Newspoll survey was partly conducted on Nathan Rees’s watch) finds NSW Labor in familiar dire straits, trailing the Coalition 29 per cent to 43 per cent on the primary vote and 56-44 on two-party preferred. The Greens are on 15 per cent, up six points on the 2007 election. For all that, Kristina Keneally’s personal ratings are remarkably robust: she leads Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier 42 per cent to 34 per cent, 45 per cent are satisfied with her against 25 per cent dissatisfied, 73 per cent (including “more than 70 per cent of polled Coalition supporters”) think her likeable, and only 5 per cent say she should wear the blame when Labor is defeated next March. The survey was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from the usual Galaxy sample of 800.

UPDATE: Antony Green observes intriguing congruity between Nathan Rees’s first poll results and Kristina Keneally’s.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

138 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. An excellent first up poll. The anger is already subsiding, and by the poll labor will narrowly lose or “even” just hold on.

  2. Anyone who has Labor’s best interests at heart should hope for a thrashing at the next election. NSW Labor needs a thorough cleaning out.

  3. BS bob. The best NSW people can hope for is a close loss for Labor. That will keep the new government honest. I’m not expecting that to happen by the way but it would serve the people well.

  4. The problem is that even with a Labor wipe out, Obeid and Tripodi and all their branch stacking collaborators will still be there, probably doing in opposition exactly what they are doing in government, and will be more concerned with their place in the pecking order than in forming a credible opposition.

    There either needs to be federal intervention to strip Obeid and Tripodi of their preselections which wont happen because Rudd won’t want to sully himself with them, or Keneally needs to show she is more than a puppet and stab them in the back herself, which I also don’t think is going to happen.

  5. [The problem is that even with a Labor wipe out, Obeid and Tripodi and all their branch stacking collaborators will still be there, probably doing in opposition exactly what they are doing in government, and will be more concerned with their place in the pecking order than in forming a credible opposition.

    There either needs to be federal intervention to strip Obeid and Tripodi of their preselections which wont happen because Rudd won’t want to sully himself with them, or Keneally needs to show she is more than a puppet and stab them in the back herself, which I also don’t think is going to happen.]

    If NSW Labor is thrashed, I can’t see Obeid and Tripodi prepared to hold the levers of (no) power within a parliamentary rump. They’d leave.

  6. BS bob, I partly agree with Gary. I would prefer a close win to the ALP as when the Federal ALP start to fix the healthcare and Hospitals, I would hate to see the State Libs get the credit.Also the state of NSW is not in chaos as some would have us believe. I live in the Northern Rivers area and travel to Sydney (twice year as I couldn’t take any more) I still find Sydney a beautiful city and the public transport from the outer western suburbs and in the city itself of top quality. I caught the River Cat from Rydalmere to Circular Quay and back, also from the Quay to Darling Harbour and had a great day,all for $2.50, the people and holiday makers did not look frazzled in fact they were all having a good time.

  7. [Gary, I see your bias is clouding your judgement again…]
    Which part of “Im not expecting that to happen..” don’t you understand?

  8. Bob tell me how the thrashings the Libs received in the state’s of NSW, SA and Victoria have helped them.
    SA and Vic will likely see long term Labor governments be re-elected due to poor oppositions still recovering from thrashings they received in elections long passed while the NSW Libs are recognised as pretty poor and will get in by default ie will be seen as the best of the worst.
    So tell me again bob why a thrashing is good for democracy and any party.

  9. [Which part of “Im not expecting that to happen..” don’t you understand?]

    But you don’t want it to happen. What part of bias don’t you understand? 🙂

  10. [But you don’t want it to happen. What part of bias don’t you understand?]
    You understand it very well bob. Your bias is constantly on show.

  11. [Your bias is constantly on show.]

    What, like two minutes ago in the other thread saying I was overjoyed to see Rudd replace Howard in 2007 and continue to be?

    Whatever it takes hey Gary? 😀

  12. [The best NSW people can hope for is a close loss for Labor.]
    Tell me bob and TTH what part of that statement made at post 3 did you both not understand?

  13. It’s amusing to see Gary think he’s making a point when infact he’s making an own goal 🙂

    NSW Labor would be best served by a good thrashing. Simple.

  14. While I’m not one to underestimate the stupidity of the NSW electorate (after all these are the same morons that voted Howard out and their attrocious state government back in), I can safely say that if anyone here thinks that this appalling mob have any chance of winning then they are totally deluding themselves.

    If by any chance they’re dumb enough to vote the Keneally / Costa / Tripodi government back in then they seriously deserve all the misery that’s in store for them.

  15. [If by any chance they’re dumb enough to vote the Keneally / Costa / Tripodi government back in then they seriously deserve all the misery that’s in store for them.]
    You’re sounding worried Pat. I wasn’t suggesting Labor would or should win.

  16. [after all these are the same morons that voted Howard out and their attrocious state government back in]

    The federal opposition was united, strong, cohesive, with excellent policies.

    The NSW state opposition on the other hand…

    But i’m not surprised your bias blinds you from such cold hard facts.

  17. I am certainly not feeling any misery in fact I appreciate what we have here in Australia. The fact is the people in NSW are looking for someone different to vote for that is other than O’Farrell and that someone could be Keneally.

  18. [Which is why 56% of the state is planning to vote against her…]
    At the moment. I don’t expect it to change but it could.

  19. [Still no answers bob? You’re done and dusted.]

    Because I can’t be bothered. I’ve exposed your bias but you continue to act as though you’re right. I’d get more results out of bashing my head against a brick wall 🙂

  20. [Basically sums up Labor’s election chances, well done. lol]
    And I have not said any differently here, that’s your myth.

  21. Muskiekemp @7, I’m pleased you enjoyed you’re $2.50 round ferry trip on the most politically driven and most expensive ferry route in Sydney. They spend a fortune dredging the Parramatta River just so those specially built flat bottomed ferries can run. If you’d done the return trip to Manly instead it would have been more than $20. If you’d caught the return train from Rydelmere it would have been more than $10. You may have only paid $2.50, but just think how much of your tax is being handed over to subsidise that service. And it is resolving the strange cross-subsidies built into public transport prices that the current government can’t resolve.

    I had an astonished tourist friend in Sydney last week mystified when he tried to catch a bus from one end of the CBDE to the other only to be told he couldn’t buy a ticket, as you can’t buy bus tickets on busses in the CBD anymore. So he trotted off to a 7-11 to buy a ticket only to discover he had to buy 10. He could have bought a day rover, but it is deliberately priced higher than the fare from Mt Victoria to Sydney to discourage people from buying day tickets. You buy weeklies or point to point single trip fares, but they will not introduce day tickets or through tickets.

  22. 32 – I’m sure the Libs will fix all of those problems Antony. The fares will come down and the system will not have one hitch.
    Now I’ll just go outside and feed this flying, yellow pig and then get ready for the Easter Bunny.

  23. OK i’m just in WA, and other than Antony’s point above can you tell me what is wrong with Labor in NSW?

    From a distance the ‘complaints’ seem to be pretty much par for the course. Who would have thought either party would have faction heavyweights (blow me over with a feather they do) and who would have thought people would want to pay less tax and get much much better services.

    Other than the political cycle, and I understand clearly that Labor should have lost last time and the libs put up a team that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory (it seems you are almost always punished later for winning in that circumstance) but other than ‘we wus wobbed by us’ what is really wrong in NSW? Your hospitals have all closed? Not having lots of natural resources making you grumpy? A PM that isn’t from NSW have your noses out of joint.

    And yes I’ve perhaps overdone the humor there, I am genuinely interested.

    And there is a comment above about the powerbrokers all going if they lose. Well in WA we lost Carps (all praise be to Wesfarmers) and Allanah McTiernan is off to take on Don Randal for Canning, oh and Vince Catania decided he was really a national at heart. But the powers that be are largely still in place. Partly because I think they thought they’d only be in opposition a week or two, and they are probably now looking at 3 or 4 terms if something big doesn’t change.

  24. No, the Liberals will receive the same advice the current government gets from the public service, which is to change the tickets to a zonal system. The question is only whether the new government will act on it.

    Here’s one very simple example. You can buy zonal bus weeklies at newsagents. You can buy bus-rail zonal weeklies at newsagents. But you have to go to the railway station to buy a rail weekly. Ask yourself, what is stopping the current government from resolving that inconsistency, and you get to the heart of current government’s problems.

  25. [I’m sure the Libs will fix all of those problems Antony.]

    No but if the government is failing miserably, that’s all that matters. Governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them.

    Your bias reeks worse than rancid meat.

  26. ‘is failing miserably’ is pretty categorical bob1234, and I’ll read you with the assumption that you have a tiny bias of yourself, but name some ‘failing miserably’ areas for me please.

  27. [‘is failing miserably’ is pretty categorical bob1234, and I’ll read you with the assumption that you have a tiny bias of yourself, but name some ‘failing miserably’ areas for me please.]

    41/59 2PP is failing abysmally. Is that a better word?

  28. You seem to have your own 2pp that is a little different to the one at the top, and no wonder I had no idea what is wrong, if that is the best you have.

  29. [You seem to have your own 2pp]

    No, Newspoll’s latest 2PP. Check AND MATE 🙂

    Who is biased when you can possibly attempt to argue that NSW Labor is anything but terminal?

  30. Sorry Anthony Green, it would have cost me $2.50 whichever transport mode I chose to use. I had a pensioners all day fare. which means I could have travelled on all mode of Public Transport all day if I had chose. It cost our friend $16.00 to ride on that River Cat.

  31. [Your bias reeks worse than rancid meat.]
    Point out my bias in my posts here bob. See post 9 and while you’re at it respond to it.
    You continue to misrepresent what I have said here.
    At no time have I suggested Labor will or should win in NSW. My only point was that a thrashing is not good for ANY party or for democracy. Now shoot that down.
    Forget this bias BS, debate the merits of the case.

  32. Muskiekemp – no wonder you think Sydney’s public transport is so good. The Rivercat is extremely popular with pensioners on a day out which can cause overcrowding. It is not nearly as popular with commuters because low tides can cause services to be cancelled beyond Rydalmere. It only runs once an hour from Parramatta which doesn’t make it much of a public transport option, especially when you compare it with the volume of people through Parramatta station each hour.

    The state government would love to dump running the ferry services because of the sqillions they cost the budget. The staff have amazingly good wages and conditions. The governmentr would love to lay them off and tender the service out to the private sector who can run the same service more cheaply. It was no surprise that one of the first Rees decision reversed by Premier Keneally was the attempt to tender out the ferry services.

  33. Gary Bruce’s judgement is not being clouded by bias. He clearly stated that he is not expecting a close loss to Labor.

    Having said that, I reckon Labor deserve a good shallacking at the next election. It goes to show that 4 year terms are too long. And 3 year terms are too short. We should have the Goldilox terms, 3.5 years! Ahh just right 🙂

  34. No, I think what Bob was getting at (although clearly not that well), was that Gary does not think that NSW Labor deserves or will take any benefit from the shellacking this poll suggests they will receive. I suggest the comment about bias was not relating to Gary’s prediction of the outcome, but rather his belief this outcome will not be “good” for Labor/NSW.

    If Gary wasn’t part of the Labor faithful (affectionately dubbed “hacks” on this blog of late), he may well think that it is indeed in the interests of NSW and NSW Labor for the party to receive the enema it needs in a landslide defeat in 2011.

    But I suppose that smacks of “yeah, and if me aunty had b*lls she’d be me uncle”.

    Either way, it is only the Labor faithful (and even then the faithful of the faithful) who still support this government’s return in NSW next year.

  35. No. One does not have to be biased to believe that a close loss to a party has benefits as it will keep a government honest. Therefore, yes, it was reasonable to conclude that Bob @ post 4 was accusing GB @ post 3 of bias, in general.

    GB clearly said that he did not expect a close loss to Labor to happen. That means that he is not really being biased. Maybe if Bob had read Gary’s original post 3 properly, he would not have made post 4. 😉

  36. I must say how ‘bad’ the NSW govt is, is sounding a lot lot more like an article of faith or a talking point circulated from head office than a considered opinion, in the complete lack they are bad because: ?

  37. A close loss is not a good thing for a long-term government. It generally leads to them failing to grasp the fact that the people have rejected them and that they have to change. In effect they go into denial and view their election loss as a “rogue poll” and they fail to reform and renew themselves.

    The labor hacks would agree with this in relation to the current federal opposition, but they are to blind to see that it would be bad for their own labor party in NSW. The NSW ALP needs a massive loss – tearing the whole thing down makes it easier to rebuild. The ALP in SA and VIC were reduced to the bare minimum in the early nineties, and it is no coincidence that those two parties are the strongest performing now. And they weren’t in opposition for that long either.

    A big loss means a loss of a big amount of baggage.

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