Morgan phone poll: 54.5-45.5

Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5, compared with 53-47 at the previous such poll early last month. Morgan’s phone polls consistently give Labor lower ratings than its headline face-to-face polls. The poll was conducted on the back of a survey of 659 respondents to ascertain views on climate change, which found support for the government’s carbon emissions trading scheme down four points to 46 per cent and opposition up five points to 36 per cent.

To demonstrate that those who believe nothing happens over the silly season aren’t looking hard enough:

• The federal government’s much ballyhooed plan to reform regulation of political funding appears to have ended with a whimper. Whereas former Special Minister of State John Faulkner said last year the reforms would “definitely be in place before the next election”, his successor Joe Ludwig is refusing to make any commitments regarding the timing or content of any legislation. It was reported in October that the government and the opposition were close to agreeing on a package including limits on campaign spending and donations, increases in public funding to parties to cover the loss, and restriction of political advertising by third parties including unions and lobby groups. As part of the deal, the Coalition would drop its opposition to slashing the threshold for public disclosure of donations, which it voted down in the Senate last year with the support of Steve Fielding, and Labor would include union affiliation fees in a ban on donations from corporations, third parties and associated entities. The latter measure crucially met opposition from union leaders concerned it would reduce their influence. Furthermore, a leaked memo from Labor MP Michael Danby argued a move from private to public funding would be a bonanza for the Greens which they could use to target Labor-held inner-city seats. The scheme’s opponents have a handy weapon in the grave political difficulty involved in increasing public funding to political parties, which Danby argues would need to increase by a factor of 10 to keep them operating at their current level. In response to the obvious objection that the proposed package included spending caps, Danby argues that such mechanisms are untested and possibly unconstitutional.

• Meanwhile, Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW Electoral Commissioner Colin Barry has told a parliamentary committee that state legislation to introduce public funding was “close to unworkable”, making it very unlikely the measure will be introduced before the next election.

Loretta Johnston of the Launceston Examiner reports that a decision by the Right faction not to challenge the Left over the succession to Duncan Kerr in the federal seat of Denison indicates a deal has been struck which will leave Bass clear for confirmed starter Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley and former manager at Launceston General Hospital. However, it’s also noted that the Prime Minister has been “tipped to take particular interest in the seat”, and will be able to direct the national executive to take action if a candidate he prefers comes forward. The report names state Bass candidate Michelle Cripps as a potential alternative if she does not win a seat in the state election. However, Danielle Blewett of The Examiner surprisingly offers that the Prime Minister has “made it clear he wanted a man to run for Bass after the recent distress experienced by incumbent Bass MHR Jodie Campbell”, according to “Labor sources”.

• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports the Western Australian ALP is struggling to find a federal candidate for Cowan to replace Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly, who stood aside a month ago because he was too closely linked to Brian Burke, as almost everybody in local politics suffers the same problem. Two names mentioned as possibilities are Karen Brown, former West Australian deputy editor, current chief-of-staff to Opposition Leader Eric Ripper and unsuccessful candidate for Mount Lawley at the 2008 state election, and Sam Roe, an “ALP staffer”.

• Contrary to earlier reports that they were pushed as much as jumped, Paul Toohey of The Daily Telegraph reports Fowler MP Julia Irwin and Throsby MP Jennie George were offered extra terms due to the Prime Minister’s determination to avoid factional conflicts over who would succeed them.

• The Camden Haven Courier reports there are three candidates for Nationals preselection in Lyne, which was won at a 2008 by-election by independent Rob Oakeshott after Mark Vaile’s retirement: Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, Taree legal practitioner Quentin Schneider and Port Macquarie electrical contractor Jamie Harrison.

Antony Green lays out possible federal election dates, noting when double dissolution and half-Senate elections are due as well as the complicating factors of school holidays, long weekends and sporting events.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published the final report for the Queensland federal redistribution, complete with individual maps for the redrawn seats.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is conducting an inquiry in the New South Wales automatic enrolment scheme, legislation for which was enacted last month. The closing date for submissions is next Friday; the committee is schedule to report on February 25.

• Business SA has published a wish list of state constitutional and electoral reform. This includes two features the government hoped to put to an all-or-nothing referendum in conjunction with the next election: cutting upper house members’ terms from eight years to four, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism. Also recommended are the introduction of compulsory enrolment, which I actually thought had been done a couple of months ago; optional preferential voting (which has always seemed to me a no-brainer – but then has so has its logical corollary, optional voting); abolition of ticket votes in the upper house with a requirement that voters number only as many candidates as there are vacancies (which raises problems if that number is 22, as it would be if you abandoned eight-year terms); abolition of South Australia’s unusual mechanism to “save” informal lower house votes by deeming partially completed ballots to have followed the relevant party’s registered how-to-vote card (which would be logical, perhaps even necessary, if optional preferential voting was introduced); a strengthened “truth in advertising” clause (a cure worse than the disease, as Democratic Audit has noted – the government got it right when it made misleading advertising grounds for declaring a result void if it may have affected the result); and by-elections when sitting members resign from their party (not entirely sure what I think about this). Among the recommended reforms for parliament is appointing outsiders as Speaker and President.

• Hobart’s Taste food festival turned ugly just before new year, following what Matthew Denholm of The Australian calls a “heated arm-waving confrontation” between Elise Archer and Sue Hickey, respectively current and former state Liberal candidates for Denison. Two witnesses pointed the finger of blame firmly at Archer: festival director and unsuccessful Liberal preselection aspirant Marti Zucco, who subsequently quit the Liberal Party over parliamentary leader Will Hodgman’s failure to act against Archer, and Hobart deputy mayor and Greens candidate Helen Burnet. The latter was allegedly told by Archer’s husband, former state party president Dale Archer, to “f*** off” when she intervened on Hickey’s behalf. Hodgman ordered Archer to apologise to Hickey, which she did by email. At issue was whether there were too many lawyers in parliament: Hickey had argued there was, and Archer – a lawyer and, like Zucco, a Hobart alderman – expressed a strong view to the contrary. Matthew Denholm further notes that Archer is associated with the Right, whereas Hickey is a moderate. Various reports in the aftermath of the incident have focused on a rift in the party between moderates and the Right, with the latter evidently having gained ascendancy. Hickey had withdrawn as a candidate a fortnight previously as she did not wish for her business to forego government contracts, as required of parliamentarians by an onerous provision in the state constitution. She was replaced on the Liberal ticket by Richard Lowrie, a manager with Hobart catamaran manufacturers Incat.

• Further upsetting the previously smooth-travelling Tasmanian Liberal applecart is news that Franklin candidate Jillian Law – described by Sue Neales of The Mercury as “delightful Huon Valley Liberal candidate and grandmother” – received an email purportedly from a party insider which said Right powerbroker Senator Eric Abetz was “very, very angry” with her, and would “be doing what he can to see you are not elected”. The email also informed Law she was “offside” with Will Hodgman, the party’s sole member for Franklin, as she had been “running about the Huon Valley telling everyone he is second to you” in terms of local support.

Peter van Onselen of The Australian reviews the 2010 electoral landscape.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

757 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 54.5-45.5”

Comments Page 1 of 16
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  1. William

    “Roy Morgan has published results from a small-sample phone poll showing Labor’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5, compared with 53-47 at the previous such poll early last month. Morgan’s phone polls consistently give Labor lower ratings than its headline face-to-face polls. ”

    sure you hav answer on your fingers rather than me researchin , what is th relativ accuracy of Morgons phone polls vs face to face VS othr pollsters

  2. I don’t really know. You can only meaningfully talk about polls’ “accuracy” if they are conducted a day or two before the election, and I’d doubt there are enough observations available to say. Possum might be able to give you a better answer.

  3. We may quibble about Gary Morgan’s actual results but the trends are pretty consistent. He picks up trends, often before other pollsters – do I believe a 60-40 result? No. Do I belive the trend? Yes.

    Despite the Labor malificarum, Tony is Toast. 🙂

  4. From the leaked memo…

    Unlike the Labor party, the Greens could virtually ignore the rest of the country.

    This is rubbish, The Greens run in more seats than any other party (who farm off country seats to their “country” parties). They do this to capture as much Senate vote as possible. They couldn’t ignore them.

    This is of course quite aside from the point that the memo doesn’t argue on principle, but on the practical disadvantage of the principles.

  5. Loved the Democratic Audit submission-
    Are you aware that the candidate is known all over Washington as a
    shameless extrovert? Not only that, but this man is reliably reported to
    have practiced nepotism with his sister-in-law and he has a sister who was
    a wicked thespian in New York. He matriculated with co-eds at the
    University, and it is an established fact that before his marriage he
    habitually practiced celibacy.

    😆

  6. [This is rubbish, The Greens run in more seats than any other party …]

    And lose the lot. Quantity, alas, does not beat quality.

  7. [ This is rubbish, The Greens run in more seats than any other party …

    And lose the lot. Quantity, alas, does not beat quality.]

    Except in By-Elections – which really sums them up as a protest party more than anything else.

  8. [Frank

    Have the Greens ever held a seat won at a by election at the following general election?]

    Off the top of my head – no – Cunningham being the prime example.

  9. TTH, if it’s a comfort to you to believe that, then just hang on to it, stroke its little head and croon to it. I’m not sure it’ll survive election night and might start to smell a little before then, but whatever gets you through the night.

  10. Rua@3:

    [Despite the Labor malificarum, Tony is Toast. ]

    Now there’s a lovely word.

    From somewhere or other:

    [
    maleficarum (sic) is the genitive plural of that ‘of the evil-doers (women)’. It’s from the verb malefacio ‘to do evil, harm; injure’ from malus ‘evil, bad’ and facio ‘to do’. ]

    Normally translated as witches.

    Rua, what the hell are you on about?

    Labor witches?

  11. [TTH, if it’s a comfort to you to believe that, then just hang on to it, stroke its little head and croon to it. I’m not sure it’ll survive election night and might start to smell a little before then, but whatever gets you through the night.]

    And cue Nixon’s favourite Beatle John Lennon:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptbokGsRdAU

  12. [Rua, what the hell are you on about?]

    Don, surely you can see how Abbott would regard the Labor Witches as Malificarum? 😉

  13. HSO@13:

    [TTH, if it’s a comfort to you to believe that, then just hang on to it, stroke its little head and croon to it. I’m not sure it’ll survive election night and might start to smell a little before then, but whatever gets you through the night.]

    HSO, you are a gem!

  14. [Yes, truthy, and the Libs won in 2007 as well.]

    Yep and Kim Beazley won in 2001 and Mark Latham romped home in 2004.

    Other than the 2 or so “corrected” polls by Morgan just before the last federal election(just to save face), has Morgan actually accurately predicted an election that wasn’t going to be a Labor landslide?

  15. Rua@16:

    [Don, surely you can see how Abbott would regard the Labor Witches as Malificarum? ;)]

    Well, fine, but does Tone appeal to them?

    Do his budgie smugglers trump the eye of newt and toe of frog?

  16. don

    Tone’s off to see Georgie Pell to see what he can do about Gillard, Roxon, Wong etc. Maybe an excorcism?

    He has managed to turn Julie to the path of right – ousness. So maybe he can win with the help of Opus Dei and Kevin Andrews?

  17. Onya, Frank. I knew I could rely on you. Ta, Don. But rua, what if Kev appeals to Mary McKillop to perform the miracle of all Opposition members appearing in their budgie smugglers if male, and speedos if female, on all national TV appearances……..and she gets another miracle?

  18. Labor Wins 2004 Federal Election According to Morgan Poll

    http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-98480112.html

    [08-28-2004
    Fed: Labor would win federal election held now – Morgan poll

    The latest Morgan poll shows Labor would easily win a federal election if it were held now.

    The nationwide poll of over 1,900 voters has found two-party support for the ALP is
    55 per cent while support for the coalition is only 44.5 per cent.

    The poll was conducted last weekend and the weekend before that, and shows a two percentage
    point increase in support for Labor … ]

    Labor Wins 2001 Federal Election according to Morgan Poll

    http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-48126658.html

    [11-12-2001
    Fed: Morgan poll’s reputation on the line

    Pollster GARY MORGAN admits his reputation is on the line after his Bulletin Morgan
    poll failed miserably to reflect voters’ intentions in the federal election.

    The Bulletin Morgan poll went out on a limb last week to declare Labor would win the
    election by nine points.

    Australia’s two other leading opinion polls proved to be on the money as they correctly
    predicted a victory to the coalition.

    However, the head of Roy Morgan Research says his poll could not be discounted … ]

    Morgan… if you are reading this… You are a JOKE!

    Fix your Labor Bias, you are making a fool of yourself and your establishment!

  19. [If we take away the standard 5% Morgan Pro-Labor bias, doesn’t this put the coalition in front?]

    There was a poster years ago who said something like that every time a poll came out.
    But I can’t remember who it was.

  20. Julian W, are you thinking of Generic Person? Haven’t heard anything from either he or Glen here for some time. I suspect Glen is probably too depressed, but GP came across as having the hide of a pachyderm and I always thought his avator most fitting.

  21. And lose the lot…

    Missing the point really. Running in every (or at least most) seats maximises their Senate vote, which has won them seats actually.

    Off the top of my head – no – Cunningham being the prime example.

    You mean the only example. But y’know, go ahead, make sweeping generalisations based on scant evidence, this is PollBludger after all.

  22. #22

    Never underestimate the power of Mary McKillop (RIP). It was reported here yesterday that Hillary Clinton believes MM intervened to save her (HC) from sniper fire in Bosnia.

  23. Morgan Poll yet again predicts a Labor Win.

    In other news, it’s been revealed the Pope is Catholic.

    Wake me up when Morgan predicts a Coalition win, i’ll have a cardiac.

  24. [If we take away the standard 5% Morgan Pro-Labor bias, doesn’t this put the coalition in front?]

    Hey redneck
    Yes I suppose you could say that, if you were comfortable with making stuff up. Which you do, based on your track record.
    Enjoy your racist fantasy!

  25. Sam

    I guess that’s why the Greens lost the Senate spot in NSW at the last election? Why they only have Senators from WA, SA and Tassie?

    What about the States where the majority of Australians live – are you happy that the Greens can only win seats in the swill house in tiny states?

  26. [Wake me up when Morgan predicts a Coalition win, i’ll have a cardiac.]

    If you had a non white doctor treat you in the hospital after your cardiac, how would you feel about that mr redneck?

  27. A great article from Labors ABC:

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2792543.htm

    [Protecting our borders is a responsibility that no government should ever take lightly.

    Australia has, for decades, maintained its reputation as one of the safest countries in the world. What we have seen this week is that the moment we take our safety for granted, the moment we lower our guard, we expose ourselves to very real threats. Over the last few days we have watched in disbelief as the Rudd Government has confessed to knowingly chartering a plane to bring four asylum seekers, deemed to be a security threat by ASIO, from Indonesia into Australia. In doing so, the Rudd Government has committed a grievous security breach, and put at risk Australia’s safety.

    In his press conference on Tuesday, the Minister for Immigration and Citizenship Senator Chris Evans said the adverse security assessments issued against four of the 78 Tamils who engaged in a four-week standoff on board the Oceanic Viking in October and November last year, including one woman, had been handed down while they were in detention in Tanjung Pinang.

    Senator Evans also admitted there was a fifth Tamil, the woman’s husband, who travelled to Australia by boat months earlier – who had also been refused a visa on security grounds.

    Prime Minister Kevin Rudd owes an explanation to the Australian people about why, after they received this adverse security assessment from our own domestic security agency ASIO, they chartered a plane, flew to Indonesia and brought these people here. It’s an extraordinary thing for the Government to have done and they need to explain what the rationale was for doing so.

    The Coalition would not have done a secret deal with the asylum seekers on the Oceanic Viking and then refused to tell the Australian people about the terms and conditions of that agreement. During the whole saga the Government continued to deny that any agreement was actually done.]

  28. [If you had a non white doctor treat you in the hospital after your cardiac, how would you feel about that mr redneck?]

    Actually I have a very nice Indian doctor treat me thank you.

    No doubt he filled out the paper work and came through the correct channels and didn’t barge his way through the back door to get here.

  29. [Actually I have a very nice Indian doctor treat me thank you.

    No doubt he filled out the paper work and came through the correct channels and didn’t barge his way through the back door to get here.]

    Did you ask him that or did you just make that up, like the rest of your posts?

  30. #ruawake 32

    The loss of the senate seat of Kerry Nettle was very disappointing.
    However Lee Rhiannon will pick it up in 2010, so that will be some comfort.

  31. [However Lee Rhiannon will pick it up in 2010, so that will be some comfort.]

    If you consider the election of a commuist a comfort, I suppose you could say that…

  32. [Michael Keenan is the Shadow Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations. He has held the seat of Stirling since 2004.]

    And looks like a casualty at the 2010 election adding to the list of Liberal no hopers to lose their seats. Does he qualify for a pension?

  33. [Did you ask him that or did you just make that up, like the rest of your posts?]

    Well how do you suppose he got here? Flying carpet?

  34. HSO@22:

    [what if Kev appeals to Mary McKillop to perform the miracle of all Opposition members appearing in their budgie smugglers if male, and speedos if female, on all national TV appearances……..and she gets another miracle?]

    HSO, wash your mind out with soap! 😆

    That is a prospect I cannot cope with.

    Barnyard in budgie smugglers?

    Bronny in speedos?

    Too terrible to contemplate.

    The miracle would be if the nation’s television receivers did not all simultaneously explode with the image.

  35. [What ? Watermelons under the bed ]

    I thought her worship of the little red book was fairly well known?
    Based on my conversation with her at any rate!

  36. Lee Rhiannon will only win a Senate seat in NSW on the back of Labor preferences, something for the Green folk to contemplate.

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