Last week’s Essential Research survey, which I neglected to cover outside of comments (Labor were down from 58-42 to 57-43), will be the last until January 18. If last year is any guide, Newspoll should return at the same time. In other developments:
• If the somewhat partisan Townsville Bulletin commentator Malcolm Weatherup is to be believed, aspirants for Labor preselection in Townsville-based Herbert are 2007 candidate George Colbran, former mayor and Mundingburra by-election veteran Tony Mooney (who apparently “will have to overcome the kryptonite of lingering local anger about his running non-Labor candidates on his Titanic ticket in the mayoral elections”), Townsville city councillor Jenny Hill and a James Cook University psychology student. The Prime Minister has apparently promised the decision will be made by the local party, although Weatherup claims he would have preferred to have installed Mooney. Peter Lindsay retained the seat in 2007 by 343 votes.
• Staying in Queensland, Toni McRae of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports Fraser Coast councillor Belinda McNeven has indicated she may run for preselection in Bundaberg-based Hinkler, where Labor might have been a show in 2007 if their candidate hadn’t been such a dill.
• Emily Sobey of the Ballarat Courier reports the Liberals have nominated Mark Banwell, who “works as an adviser to a financial publication in Melbourne”, as their candidate for the federal seat of Ballarat. Ballarat was Labor’s only gain at the 2001 election and has since been retained by Catherine King.
• The aforementioned Emily Sobey article also informs us the Greens have again preselected architect Marcus Ward, who also ran in 2006, as their lead candidate for the upper house region of Western Victoria at the November state election.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Barry O’Farrell has sought to protect Right warlord David Clarke by bringing his state upper house preselection forward from March to February, suggesting he may not be as invulnerable than his factional might makes him appear.
Never feel sorry for them, BB. They’d condemn your grandkids to a lifetime of SerfChoices exploitation without giving the matter a second thought.
Read Van Olsens latest in the OO. People actually pay him to write about politics??
So what if Rudd doesnt have the factional support that some others may have in the ALP? He was the right person at the right time to knock off Howard. He will be pretty much unassailable from within until it comes time to show that he has learned the lesson of Howards demise not to hang on too long, and hand the federal ALP over in reasonably good nick to his sucessor. Whoever that may be.
I really hope it is Gillard, but by then their may be other valid contenders emerge as the ALP front bench is very strong. Funny that a lot of the media bang on about what a control freak Rudd is, yet it seems to me that the ALP front bench get quite a bit of latitude to do thier jobs, publicly, and establish their own profiles which didnt seem to happen under Howard. With Howard he seemed to like keeping everything focused on himself.
Best example of this had to be the CPRS legislation. Rudd was off overseas and passage (or not) of this was ably handled by Wong, Combet and Gillard. Rudd got on with his job, and left other people to get on with their own, important jobs.
Maybe this is Olsen trying to fly the kite that all the Libs woes will be over once the popular Kevin Rudd is gone and the ALP disintegrate into factional rivalry? I wonder when it will dawn on him and his ilk that its not just Kevin Rudd that people like.
Mumble discussing Rudds “political timidity’.
http://mumble.com.au
Amigo Finns you were snipped! No fair!
Small minded PY calls our Premier KKK trying to be clever (didn’t work) but we can’t call Kev K&Rudd (not that us polite bludgers would dream of it anyway 🙂 )
Vera, Bilbo just aint got the right NY spirit. Snipping the little one and it gets even smaller ooucchhh 😛 to Bilbo
Coconaut (# 1559)
The chances of the Greens in the ACT appear to be better than your post indicates. The count will go to preferences assuming a awing against the Liberals of just under 1%.
In 2007 the relevant quotas were, after subtracting 1 ALP quota (ALP candidate first elected)
Liberal 1.0259
Greens 0.6442
ALP 0.2251
Democrats 0.0551
What Women Want 0.0187
Climate Change Coalition 0.0176
Liberty and Democracy Party 0.0072
NDP 0.0050
Adding the ALP, Democrat, WWW, CCC and NDP quotas to the Greens gives a quota of 0.9657 and gives a difference between the Liberals and Greens of .0674 of a quota, or 2.3% of the vote, after adding the LDP quota to that of the Liberals. The swing (‘right to left’) required for the Greens to secure the second spot therefore appears to be about 1.2%. Say even 2% to allow for preference leakages and they probably have a 50-50 chance.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2007/candidates/gvt.htm
(http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/results/senate/act.htm)
Finns
Didn’t you tell me dolphins have 2? 😉
William is just jealous is all and want’s to cut you down to human proportions!
[Didn’t you tell me dolphins have 2? ]
Vera, shhhhhhhh, dont tell Bilbo. He might do his snipo again.
It is really quite amusing that van Onselen, who purports to be a Political Scientist, can find nothing better to do than question how the polls are taken. He should spend a bit of time in the company of pollbludgers, where he will not only learn about opinion polls, but meet plenty of bloggers who can educate him about the errors of his Liberal-thinking ways.
Ahh Crazy Colin wants to introduce the Stolen Generation Mark 2:
[BAD parents will have their children taken from them for up to 18 years under a controversial Barnett Government plan.
Abusive, drug-addicted and dysfunctional parents will get two years to prove to authorities they have beaten their problems before children are handed to guardians.
Child Protection Minister Robyn McSweeney told The Sunday Times a detailed submission would go before Cabinet in the coming weeks, and, if adopted, legislation would be introduced into parliament this year.
Under the radical plan, which stems from an election commitment, courts will be given powers to issue special guardianship orders giving recipients the legal right to care for someone else’s child until the child turns 18.
Unlike foster parents, who are under the control of the Department for Child Protection and are checked on every few months, guardians won’t have the same constraints when bringing up children under their care.
Though birth parents would likely have some access to children, day-to-day decisions involving the child would be made by the guardians, including where they go to school and where they live.
Ms McSweeney made no apologies for separating children from troubled parents, saying the initiative would give children a stable upbringing, rather than being shunted around foster homes.
“I don’t think I am doing anything outrageous,” Ms McSweeney said. “These children will always know who they belong to; who their (birth) parents are. They will be able to still see their parents.
“It’s not an easy thing to take a child away – (but) kids deserve the best. That’s what I want for everyone’s children. A child deserves to be loved and hugged and cuddled and held. A child doesn’t deserve to be kicked, hit and abused.
“This will shock parents into knowing they need to kick their addictions, knowing they don’t want their children brought up by someone else.”
But the proposed laws have outraged civil libertarians, while Aboriginal leaders fear indigenous families would be picked on unfairly.
WA Aboriginal leader Peter Yu labelled the laws “drastic and draconian”.
Mr Yu, who headed a review into the Howard government’s intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities, said he was stunned by the plan.
“To take away a child would cause a lot of angst in the natural family,” he said.
“Of course there is the need to ensure the safety and security of children, but my concern overall is that there needs to be some clear articulation of what the natural justice issues are as they relate to parents as well.
“The fundamental rights of individuals need to be included. We know that a lot of this is targeted towards Aboriginal kids. Most Aboriginal people are already totally disempowered in relation to the legal processes and the justice system. This just compounds what is an already complex and confusing situation where some parents already have very little knowledge of their rights.”]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/bad-parents-to-lose-kids-for-18-years/story-e6frg13u-1225815531249
Expect Liberal Radio to go feral over this.
[DR SEUSS. Maurice Sendak. Kevin Rudd.
A generation of younger Australians are set to see their Prime Minister in a new light as the children’s book he has co-authored with former Play School presenter Rhys Muldoon hits shelves.
Titled Jasper And Abby And The Great Australia Day Kerfuffle, the book follows Mr Rudd’s pets – his dog Abby and cat Jasper – in an adventure in the grounds of Kirribilli House.
Mr Rudd has in the past received mixed reviews for his writing, in particular his 10,000-word essay
on the global economic crisis 12 months ago. But this time he might expect a warmer reception not just because his readers might struggle to spell their own names, but also because proceeds from the book will help fund the Centre for Community Child Health at the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/kevin-rudd-writes-book-for-children/story-e6frfkvr-1225815548582?from=public_rss
briefly wrote ;
[RE PVO – He should spend a bit of time in the company of pollbludgers, where he will not only learn about opinion polls, but meet plenty of bloggers who can educate him about the errors of his Liberal-thinking ways. ]
PVO has much in common with sydney shock jocks, ie they are only effective while they control the microphone and filter calls.
They would be/ are totally ripped to pieces once forced to stand on their hind legs and defend the garbage they spew. A David Marr for example would totally outclass them every day of the week and a dozen times on sunday.
Likewise George Mega.
But its really worse than that. Take Laws or Jones. Saying one thing about Banks, telstra ie bad and taking BIG money from them the next.
And poor old generation blue/ grey just cannot/will not work out they are being played like a fiddle.
Its sad really.
The WA Libs are true to type, Frank. It seems to me that the children may end up being punished for the sins of the parents….it is troubling.
Frank
Bet that book becomes a best seller. I’ll buy one. 😉
[Unlike foster parents, who are under the control of the Department for Child Protection and are checked on every few months, guardians won’t have the same constraints when bringing up children under their care.]
This bit is also troubling
[Frank
Bet that book becomes a best seller. I’ll buy one. 😉 ]
And no doubt Kev will be th first PM to appear on Play School to read it – hopefully at Kirribilli House.
Just watch abbott and co sneer at the book.
Clever Kevin at work yet again. Messing with their minds.
[ Unlike foster parents, who are under the control of the Department for Child Protection and are checked on every few months, guardians won’t have the same constraints when bringing up children under their care.
This bit is also troubling]
Especially if they of the God Fearing Whacko type.
Rudd is an unusual person by any standard: Mandarin-speaking intellectual; diplomat, bureaucrat and politician; author of children’s books, twitterer, religious and workaholic. Perhaps he is Everyman and we are just getting to know him better.
Frank
barnett seems to have warped back to the 90’s
1890’s that is
😉
[Perhaps he is Everyman and we are just getting to know him better.]
I think kev is simply kev
No bells,No whistles
just a bloke doing the best he can.
FOR ALL OF US
1615…vera
Yes, there a sense in which children will be disposed of, as one might dispose of goods and chattels. Is this about punishment, retribution, correction or a kind of internal exile? 18 years? It sounds like a penal sentence and probably will turn out that way.
Even better, Rudd could get Mark Latham (of “When was the last time you read to your kids?” fame) to read it on Play School.
I’d pay money to see that.
[Even better, Rudd could get Mark Latham (of “When was the last time you read to your kids?” fame) to read it on Play School.
I’d pay money to see that.]
Rudd’s already passed the audition re working with kids 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeQ1DUhBBsM
“The swing (’right to left’) required for the Greens to secure the second spot therefore appears to be about 1.2%. Say even 2% to allow for preference leakages and they probably have a 50-50 chance.”
can not seeing th Greens themselves getting th 2% , however since th change to Abbott then electon may be polorised between Labor CC but a modest $ sacrifice vs Abbott ‘aparently suporting CC but claiming Rudds ETS a big $ tax increase This will narrow poll gaps from what were already unreelistic 59/41 to 57/43 curent levels , yet an increase of vote to Rudd Labor of over 1% to 1.5% would end up being prefernsed by Labor to th Greens anyways making th ACT seat quite winable
briefly
Maybe Rudd could overturn that WA legislation if it gets made law? Or is that not possible?
Is it only the Territories where the Feds can do that eg euthanasia and gay marriage?
Yes Gusface @ 1621. I agree about that. But Kev is turning out to be many-layered. He is not your standard-issue political suit-and-tie – your off-the-rack hack. When he comes out with surprises, I am reminded of his speech of Apology to the Stolen Generations in the House in 2008. That blew my assumptions away. He has depth.
vera, I think the States have jurisdiction in these matters unless the Commonwealth has passed valid laws in relation to the same matters. If WA laws were found to be in conflict with, say, the Human Rights Act or the Racial Discrimination Act, then they would have no effect. You would need to have the text of the Acts to be able to form a view…..but good idea though.
WooHOO
Got 5 numbers in tonight’s lotto draw!
Yeah, I know it’s off topic…
But there’s statistics in there… You know… 1 in a few hundred thou… YAY!
vera, it is when Governments propose things like this latest pearler from Barnett that I think we should have a Bill of Rights. Such a law would have protected people in the past – from the Stolen Generations to those (so recently) imprisoned and expelled by the Department of Immigration. Conservatives have been against one forever and a day, arguing that such a Bill would infringe the sovereignty of parliaments. But I think this should be taken up by the Rudd Government.
vera
Posted Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 10:52 pm | Permalink
Unlike foster parents, who are under the control of the Department for Child Protection and are checked on every few months, guardians won’t have the same constraints when bringing up children under their care.
“This bit is also troubling”
hi Vera , agree
Obvously there opening policy coment has some merit
“Abusive, drug-addicted and dysfunctional parents will get two years to prove to authorities they have beaten their problems before children are handed to guardians.”
ust cann’t leave kids under hell circumstanses , but govts need to read lite trying become de facto mum & dad referes
BUT allowing Judges to mak desisons without VERY regular permanent auditing by authoitys and without specific guaranteed reasonable parents access is 1/2 baked If dispropornate % of Aboriginees ar taken the bno doubt th Federal Anti discrim would become ‘live’ to chalenge & if proved would def overturn whole Bill or maybe gets chalenged progress by case
There’s something that bothers me about the Quarterly Newspoll.
Does it include the rogue/outlier, 52/48 one and also figures from the ETS one that were not published by News Ltd?
Also going by this, News Ltd and probably the Libs seem to want an early poll rather than a late one. Probably to cash in before the electorate wake up fully to Abbott and his troupe of fossils!
Rudd and Labor on the other hand stand to gain more from an early September election having had eight months to wear down the Libs even more and further establish Labor as sound economic managers!
[The survey, covering October to December of last year, also finds Mr Rudd’s high rating as better prime minister has been eroded slightly in NSW among males and among those aged 50 or more.
The Newspoll survey was taken from a large sample of 8,000 voters combining national Newspolls over October to December to provide a large enough sample to examine major demographic patterns and state trends.
On a two-party-preferred basis Labor would win an election in a landslide, leading the Coalition with 57 per cent support to the Coalition’s 43 per cent.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-can-gain-seats-in-early-vote-poll-20100102-llzp.html
Sorry, missed a bit!
[Rudd can gain seats in early vote: poll]
[It’s been revealed that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is on track to pick up Liberal-held seats in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland if he chooses to go to the polls early in a double-dissolution election.]
Briefly
The BH saw kev and therese just afore xmas on TV,helping out and not looking for praise. The BH hugged me and said that is what a PM is,someone who you can admire and also know is going to the best they can.
I think we are, as a country,in the best pair of hands available.
I will gladly man the barricades come election time.
This is worth reading, as usual…..from Possum
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/23/politics-and-faith-a-nielsen-poll/#more-6766
briefly. the conservatives seem to like nothing more than to threaten peoples’ rights.
WA is showing us what it would be like under Lib rule in case we have forgotten Howard allready.
Apart from this latest brainwave Frank mentioned a while back the new WA laws they want to bring in to jail anyone over 12 was it? for touching a police officer.
You don’t know whether to feel sick, angry or just shake your head in disbelief.
hello Ron
you make sense of things as usual
Gusface @ 1634, I know what you mean. I think a great many voters think exactly the same way as you do, though they may not express it or even necessarily identify their thoughts.
(In a world that constantly throws up reasons for anxiety, for doubt, for fear, Rudd’s government emanate harmonic calm, reason and re-assurance. It becomes possible to take the Government somewhat for granted – to be relied on not to be another source of anxiety. By contrast, to my mind, this is Abbott’s basic brand defect: he and his team are the embodiment of conflict, doubt, acrimony and anxiety. These are qualities the public do not want to purchase.)
Briefly
I can undrstand your dismays & speculating on a Bill of Rights
I’m more in favor of govts passing Laws , and th polise or Courts as case may be enforsing them than a Bill of rights
Just know th more zealotery civil libartariens will love me , again , for opposing a Bill of rights Tink would end up with every vested Group wanting THERE “rights” codified & often in conflict with othrs not wanting them to
also could be divisive with say homo’s wanting for exampel ‘right’ to marry’ put into th Bill
Also Conservatives oppose it strongley , and would run a efective ‘scare’ campaign & there ar higher priotity issues to fight Libs on than giv them a free kick
And as i don’t particulalry like them lawyers , i reckon a Bill of Rights would be a money earning gravy train to them
And th peoples may say , we already know what our rights ar and do not need a Govt to tell US what our rights ar , and may be suspicous of giving up there unwritten rights but thy ar rights they know vs a mumbo jumbo to them Law that “may” restrict th rights they already know they hav , notwithstandng scare campaigns run against it
Finaly th US has a Bill of rights , and i reckon th non bill of rights Austalia is still better than them , in ‘rights” , and actualy in everyting to be reely objective
That WA law agree Briefly is a dunse , but can see it being chalenged WITH free legal aid as well , as actual cases arise
[WA laws they want to bring in to jail anyone over 12 was it? for touching a police officer.]
There are very tough penalties – I think mandatory sentences – for anyone convicted of assaulting a public officer. The laws stem from a few spectacular failures to obtain convictions of people after police had been seriously injured. The real problem was the failure of the DPP to prepare and carry out half-competent prosecutions. Now we have these half-witted laws, which will result in the drugged, the mentally-ill and the drunk being incarcerated without discretion. WA already has a very imprisonment rate and overcrowded, violent prisons. It is a sad state of affairs, to be sure. Once again, we need a Bill of Rights.
I had no idea this was happening:
[In the past 12 months, dozens of British-born paedophiles, rapists and career criminals, many in their late 50s and 60s, were deported to the UK after finishing their sentences in Australian jails, despite having lived most of their lives Down Under.
Among them was notorious paedophile Raymond Horne, who was given a police escort through Heathrow Airport amid British outrage over his forced return from Queensland.
UK campaigners fear that a lack of connection to their former homeland, including no support base of family and friends, makes serial offenders more likely to reoffend.
Australia last year jettisoned more than 60 criminals to their countries of origin, mostly the UK and New Zealand.
UK child welfare campaigner Shy Keenan said while offenders had court-backed restrictions in Australia that would have them back behind bars if breached, once they were deported to the UK the ability to restrict their actions was limited.
She called on British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to raise the issue with his Australian counterpart Kevin Rudd.
“It’s just not fair,” she said.
“In law they do belong here, in essence they are British citizens, but whether they are morally or ethically British is another argument.
“They will be assessed when they come here to Britain and made to sign the sex offenders’ register but beyond that there is very little they can do. The slate is effectively wiped clean.”]
I’m pleased that this scum is now someone else’s problem.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/uk-wants-australia-former-colony-to-keep-its-criminals/story-fn3dxity-1225815567438
[In the past 12 months, dozens of British-born paedophiles, rapists and career criminals, many in their late 50s and 60s, were deported to the UK after finishing their sentences in Australian jails, despite having lived most of their lives Down Under.]
From memory it stems from changes to the Immigration laws by I think Howard which declared that UK born persons who did not take out Australian Citizenship would be subject to deportation to the Mother Country after serving their sentences.
[There are very tough penalties – I think mandatory sentences – for anyone convicted of assaulting a public officer. The laws stem from a few spectacular failures to obtain convictions of people after police had been seriously injured. The real problem was the failure of the DPP to prepare and carry out half-competent prosecutions. Now we have these half-witted laws, which will result in the drugged, the mentally-ill and the drunk being incarcerated without discretion. WA already has a very imprisonment rate and overcrowded, violent prisons. It is a sad state of affairs, to be sure. Once again, we need a Bill of Rights.]
What do you expect when you have the head of the DPP has the unfortunate surname of Cocks 🙂
And it didn’t help when you are pressured by 3,000 police officers staging a public rally outside Parliament, if it were a normal every day union, would have their pay docked, plus a thinly veiled threat from a Union Boss (who is now a member of the WA Liberal Party).
[Police Union president Mike Dean paid tribute to the young officer who he said had shown great “dignity” and “nobility” as an inspiration to all.
“I don’t have to tell you police officers are your guardians. When you call for help, they come,” Mr Dean told the rally.
“For many years…we have watched the deterioration of our legal system. Police officers have watched first hand.”
Mr Dean said the Bill for the mandatory jailing of people who cause officers bodily harm was some of the strongest legislation put to Parliament in the past 35 years.
He said the judicial system had been “manipulated by slippery and greedy solicitors” and MPs needed to back the state’s police through their support of the Bill.
“The Government and this House has one last chance in my eyes – to reform our legal system,” Mr Dean said.
“This is about the attitude of our magistrates and judges. If you can’t do the job – stand aside and put someone in there that can.]
In particular with this line:
[“Change the law and we will back you,” he said. “Close your eyes and minds and ignore us and we will make your lives a nightmare.”]
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/thousands-rally-to-back-cops/story-0-1111119149546
Frank, Together with tightening gun ownership laws that’s two things I can praise Howard for. Just two credits out of the many decisions made over his life is a poor record but credit where it’s due. 😉
You’re right, Frank (1642). This is another example of Howard’s Citizenship Humbug. I thought a principle of criminal justice was supposed to be that if you committed a crime and were convicted, you would serve the prescribed penalty and that was that. But Howard found a way to distort the concept of citizenship and use it as a means to impose an additional, extra-judicial penalty: deportation. It will take years to purge his malice from the statutes.
# 1599 – Ron
There is a time and place for everything.
The right time for the production of the proof of the statement made by Tebbutt is when she claims:
a. She did not make the statement, and/or
b. She has been smeared.
It is not an appropriate time in response to an urger from the sidelines.
The appropriate place is in the MSM, not on a website where one is only talking to yourself.
In the meantime I do encourage you to keep raising this issue.
The right
re Bill of Rights
Bob Carr wrote an article on why a Bill of Rights was not appropriate.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/bill-of-rights-is-the-wrong-call/story-e6frg6z6-1225710664130
This is well worth reading: a discussion between Geoffrey Sachs and some colleagues. It reflects on US domestic politics, international law, the UN and how to get some action on Climate Change. It is a very different view of things than we are used to here:
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sachs160
It ends with a call for a technical revolution:
[The irony is that the Chinese and other Asian governments are the ones beginning to move forward with serious technology policies, investing massive amounts in clean-tech development and deployment. This is motivated not by climate mitigation nor international law, of course, but economic competitiveness (FYI see our latest report, “Rising Tigers, Sleeping Giant” http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/2009/11/rising_tigers_sleeping_giant_o.shtml). We should use these efforts to motivate the investment we need in the U.S. and other developed nations, and to develop a successful global mitigation framework focused on investments in technology]
1647
Peter Young…..food for thought….thanks
William:
Very Offtopic, but if you’re looking for the 12″ Inch of Player 1’s Space Invaders, you can find it in FLAC format on this thread.
http://pub44.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=3725630012&frmid=8&msgid=1095573&cmd=show
Also lots of other Aussie Music Gems from the 60’s to the 80’s.