The season to be jolly

Last week’s Essential Research survey, which I neglected to cover outside of comments (Labor were down from 58-42 to 57-43), will be the last until January 18. If last year is any guide, Newspoll should return at the same time. In other developments:

• If the somewhat partisan Townsville Bulletin commentator Malcolm Weatherup is to be believed, aspirants for Labor preselection in Townsville-based Herbert are 2007 candidate George Colbran, former mayor and Mundingburra by-election veteran Tony Mooney (who apparently “will have to overcome the kryptonite of lingering local anger about his running non-Labor candidates on his Titanic ticket in the mayoral elections”), Townsville city councillor Jenny Hill and a James Cook University psychology student. The Prime Minister has apparently promised the decision will be made by the local party, although Weatherup claims he would have preferred to have installed Mooney. Peter Lindsay retained the seat in 2007 by 343 votes.

• Staying in Queensland, Toni McRae of the Fraser Coast Chronicle reports Fraser Coast councillor Belinda McNeven has indicated she may run for preselection in Bundaberg-based Hinkler, where Labor might have been a show in 2007 if their candidate hadn’t been such a dill.

• Emily Sobey of the Ballarat Courier reports the Liberals have nominated Mark Banwell, who “works as an adviser to a financial publication in Melbourne”, as their candidate for the federal seat of Ballarat. Ballarat was Labor’s only gain at the 2001 election and has since been retained by Catherine King.

• The aforementioned Emily Sobey article also informs us the Greens have again preselected architect Marcus Ward, who also ran in 2006, as their lead candidate for the upper house region of Western Victoria at the November state election.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Barry O’Farrell has sought to protect Right warlord David Clarke by bringing his state upper house preselection forward from March to February, suggesting he may not be as invulnerable than his factional might makes him appear.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “The season to be jolly”

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  1. This is an excellent piece on the dilemma facing Japan. I have posted previously that Japan is really at the cross road and caught by two headlights. One is shining from the West and one from the East. The West is dimming while the East is rising.

    While on the surface, Japan viewed from the outside, socially, politically and economically is very much the modern western liberal democracy. But if you scratch the surface, it is still basically a hierarchical, collective and feudalistic society, just as many of the Asian countries.

    As the late President Sukarno of Indonesia once astutely observed: “Guided Democracy” is more suited to the East. Since then Lew Kuan Yew in the minnow Singapore has established the template and many in Asia, including the giant China, are scrambling to examine Singapore’s template. One feature many Asian countries have wished for is the efficiency and free from corruption of the Singaporean bureaucracy. Even in the so called “liberal democratic” Japan, this is aint so.

    [It was not exactly The Japan That Can Say No, as in the title of the book written by Tokyo governor and novelist Shintaro Ishihara and Sony founder Akio Morita, suggesting Japan should stand up more to the United States…………………. ………….. But what’s been happening in Japan over the past four months signals a shift in Asia’s mood that should have the US President, Barack Obama, the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, and their advisers on alert, and significantly modifying their profile in the region………… ………… But since the dumping of the stale and discredited Liberal Democratic Party on August 30, there’s been an almost palpable sense among the Japanese that bold new approaches are required to lift their country out of economic stalemate and population decline.
    This includes more openness to Asia. One example of shibboleths being swept aside was Emperor Akihito’s recent reception of the visiting Chinese Vice-President, Xi Jinping, expected to become top leader in 2012, over the objections of his Imperial Household Agency officials that not enough notice was given.

    The Copenhagen climate-change talks showed Asian powers flexing their importance and resisting Western advice. It’s a trend we should be bending our diplomacy to fit, if our foreign policy establishment isn’t too steeped in Bush-era thinking too]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/japan-takes-its-own-sweet-time-20100101-llpt.html

    Yes, at the COP15 where China, India and Brazil flexed their collective muscle will add to the anxiety of the Japanese as to where the future of their rice bowls will depend on. I disagree with the observation below. In IMHO, Japan has already conceded the leadership of Asia to China. It knows it cannot compete with China. The stagnation of the last 20 years means Japan does not yet have the political discipline and leadership required to wean itself from the USA. Many in Asia will demand that if Japan wants to lead Asia. The recent FTA between China and ASEAN proves that.

    [Of course, an anxiety about rising Chinese power still feeds a strategic rivalry. The Japanese are putting a lot of resources into building up relations and economic ties with India, Vietnam and other regional states to counter Chinese influence.]

  3. PY,

    You seem to have dedicated your whole life to playing “KK gotcha”. What a pathetically dreary life you lead.

  5. Yes competent staff to prepare media releases would be helpful

    [ While Police were overall pleased with the crowd’s behaviour, around 130 people were
    arrested and charged with 117 offences. ]

    WTF?

    130 people were arrested but only 117 charges laid. That’s means there was less than one charge on average per person. I have never heard of a person being charged with 90% of an offence before. Usually a lot of people get the trifecta (offensive behaviour, resist arrest, assault police) so that probably means the others were charged with 50% of an offence.

  6. Peter Young,

    Crikey, you’re not that dumb surely! Thousands of people get apprehended and arrested every year and are not charged with an offence due to a multitude of reasons.

    You need to get out more mate! 😉

  8. Morning PBers

    Billy 1591 – Thanks for that. I’ll order it tomorrow and pass it around to my mob as well.

    Has anyone mentioned that John Laws is joining 2SM – the radio station full of CC deniers and lover of anything Barnaby Joyce says. Should be heaps of fun for the old rednecks to listen to.

  9. [BAD parents will have their children taken from them for up to 18 years under a controversial Barnett Government plan.]

    But what is a BAD parent Frank.

    Many would see chair sniffing as a prime example of bad parenting, did the father instruct his son in his habit, did he pick up his wifes and daughters chairs and say this is how you do it son. Should we be looking at those children to see if they are passing on the habit to their children.

    And what of the parent who beat a man with a wire cable whilst other men held the man down, has he passed on these parenting skills to his children and grandkids, one has already shown his prospensity to break the laws by speeding, should the government be examining the welfare and values of those children and grandchildren.

    Then there is the man who accused a woman of being barren, has he placed undue pressure on his daughters and granddaughter sot become pregnant at an early age.

    And in todays news there is the story of kids from elite private schools forming groups on facebook demanding non-whites to f$%k off and leave Australia. Clearly there is bad parenting there and these children need to be removed immediately.

  10. The Rudd haters are spitting chips allready over his co writing that kids book. I love watching them squirm so full of hate that Labor have the hide to be in power and running the country so superbly 😀

    I watched a bit of Sunrise on 7 this morning and they had some old Liberal society hag on, so angry at the thought of Kev getting good publicity that she made Piers look balanced!

    The 2 hosts, her and an FM jock were discussing 3 news items (don’t watch the show normally but figure it was a regular fluff segment)

    Hag pulled a horrible face (then again it may always look like that) like she was sucking lemons, the host gave her a wary look as she muttered how she couldn’t stand the man, “what won’t that man do for publicity” then went on to attack Kev and Therese by saying she pitied the poor animals being forced to live with “THEM” meaning Kev and Therese, said she couldn’t think of anything worse. You’d be bored to death etc.
    Then said she didn’t even know they had a cat & dog and when did they get those?

    At this point the FM jock chimed in saying Rudd was copying Obama because his dog got a lot of publicity when they got it.

    Hag scowling says “Oh knew there had to be a reason for it”

    Don’t let facts get in the way, like
    The Rudd’s animals lived in Brissy with them as I remember them being concerned about the move to Canberra and the settling in. Obama wasn’t elected until a year later FFS!
    No mention that it wasn’t even Rudd.s idea and that he was approached by the ex Play School guy to co write the book with him.
    They even made comments that Rudd was exploiting his animals for the proceeds the book would make!
    The proceeds from the book will to go to a Melbourne kids hospital!

    But hey what’s a few more lies amongst the Lib media friends to try and dent St Kevs popularity!
    Wangkers! 😛

    Sorry about the rant. What a way to start a Sunday, think I’ll go back to bed and get up again and watch Nine’s morning show instead 😉

  11. How ungracious of the staffers not to pass on the thanks of the Premier on behalf of the people of NSW to Sydney City Council for putting on the fireworks which were enjoyed so much by people right across Sydney, who came into the city or watched them on TV, the thanks to the rate-payers of SCC for forking out $5million for the fireworks, the thanks to the residents of SCC for once again being inconvenienced and thanks to the SCC for the hospitality in hosting Ms Keneally to an enjoyable evening at the Opera House to watch the fireworks from a ringside seat.

  12. vera – #1660

    I am just hoping Rudd’s love of animals might cause him to have a word with David Campbell and get him to change his obstinate views on dogs on trains and introduce the same policy as the Victorian government has.

  13. Peter
    No offence, but I wish William would open a special “What we hate about NSW Labor” especially for you so you could go there and happily talk to yourself all day 😛

  14. Vera@1663:

    [Peter
    No offence, but I wish William would open a special “What we hate about NSW Labor” especially for you so you could go there and happily talk to yourself all day :P]

    Vera, have a look at the NSW thread. PY is all on his lonesome there, no one wants to play with him, so that is why he comes here.

    He’s another scroll through like Bob was.

  16. [No offence, but I wish William would open a special “What we hate about NSW Labor” especially for you so you could go there and happily talk to yourself all day]

    Just saw don’s answer, Vera. No wonder the poor lad comes back here – nobody is talking to him on the NSW thread. I think we should go over there and post a few of the good things NSW Labor has done and remind him of the last a Lib Govt. was here in NSW.

    Wonder if PY knows about the Lib’s Port Macquarie Hospital fiasco and others of similar vein.

    Good rant about Ch7, Vera but you should send them a message re doing better research for their program. Almost everyone knows Kev & Therese have Abby and Jasper. We all read First Dog on the Moon. lol.

  17. Peter, I welcome your differing view (to mine) on politics as I did bob and TTH when they first arrived. However there is one thing that spoils it all and that is getting stuck in a rut over one issue and becoming increasingly petty (with the associated name calling) and illogical. You’re well on the way old son.

  18. Vera – I got a Christmas message from Kristina. Perhaps I should ask her to send a NY one to Peter.

    What do you make of Lawsie coming back to help 2SM with their “People Power” gig to get rid of Kev. It’s hilarious to listen to them calling him a Communist. The shockjocks there are excited by the thought they have galvanised ‘the people’ to take control of democracy and rid themselves of the evil KR.

  19. BH
    I didn’t realise there was allready a NSW thread until don mentioned it. I usually just keep to the federal poll threads.
    I’ll have to pop over to the NSW one for a sqizz now, youand don have made me curious 🙂

  20. BH
    Laws must be their big gun to finish Kev off before the election. I haven’t listened to local radio here for years but they used to take 2UE coverage overnight, I think they still do as one night I tuned in by mistake in my search for Trevor Chappell and there was a shock jock ripping into rudd at 2am!

    We used to get the John Laws show for a couple of hours of a morning.

  21. [We used to get the John Laws show for a couple of hours of a morning.]

    We’ll probably get him again instead of 2UE in the mornings. I listen for an 1hr just to get the gist of the talkback mob. Mostly older people so not really informative as to the whole community but I can’t believe the lack of proper research. Facts don’t mean a thing and fibs are not corrected.

    I wonder whether the Alan Jones decision will change that now.

    If somebody is factually incorrect here it is picked up almost immediately by someone who has checked but that doesn’t happen on radio (even on the ABC) so the fabrications are spread around.

    The Govt. is going to have to be more ‘in the face’ with Abbott and Joyce misusing the truth I think.

  22. [No wonder the poor lad comes back here – nobody is talking to him on the NSW thread.]

    BH, after a while, the sound of one hand clapping does get kinda monotonous.

  23. The shock jocks may have a devoted band of listeners, but they have a dedicated – and much larger – non-audience: people who would never listen to them in a fit.

    The plan must be to play on the susceptibilities of some of the public, cultivate their loyalty and flog their ratings to advertisers. I suppose this is a way to build and hold an audience and make money out of it in what is otherwise a very fluid and ephemeral market. But it does seem a very self-limiting business strategy: alienate 85% of your potential audience and trash your brand at the same time.

  24. [I think peter is secretly in love with Kristina and is just playing hard to get!]

    Vera, Amigos do think alike. I was just going to post that:

    Like life and death, the difference between love and hate is only paper thin.

  25. lol..

    [the difference between love and hate is only paper thin]

    I know how I feel about the Libs, and it has nothing to do with love…..:)

  26. Finns – I guess we can kinda feel sorry for him in a way. We all know NSW Labor needs a bit of renewal but not all they have done has been bad for us.

    I think the media have never got over the fact that Iemma won in 2007. He was supposed to lose so now they will make sure of it. I never hear anyone radio person say a positive thing about NSW which makes me realise they’ll be blinkered until March 2011.

    Loved the book “The sound of one hand clapping” and I take it off the shelf for a quick look every time I’m on library duty. It is a well borrowed book.

  29. Briefly

    [The plan must be to play on the susceptibilities of some of the public, cultivate their loyalty and flog their ratings to advertisers.]

    Spot on – and I love this comment from David Williamson

    “‘Shock Jocks’ are good fear amplifiers. They take an anxiety and turn it into fear and panic. That is what they good at doing. That is what John Howard is good at doing.
    Fear is very easily turned into hate and rage.” David Williamson (playwright)

    And into radio ratings!! It is an education to listen to them for awhile tho and it’s a bit sad to realise how much they use their audience for their own personal gain.

    I live in an area where the shockjocks are treated as icons of all knowledge and with my “know it all” attitude about their lack of research I could get into almighty arguments of fact/fiction. But it would mean constant high blood pressure and who wants that.

  30. Peter Young

    #1646 dated 3/1/10

    You a NSW Greens suporter , made an alegation in your #1405 dated 1/1/10 , WITHOUT ANY SOURSE OR EVIDENSE that NSW ALP Minister quote “Carmel Tebbutt was a blatant liar in making a false statement in 2007 about Greens preferenses in th Canturbury electorate in 2003 electon

    I chalenged you in my #1599 dated 2/1/10 quote “to provide evidense that she actualy made this Statement FROM a transcript of her words , all in context , from a credible MSN news sourse”

    You reply in #1646 dated 3/1/10 refuses to even supply this basic sourse & evidense for your alegation

    You evasively say implying you evidense when you don’t: “The right time for the production of the proof of the statement made by Tebbutt is when she claims:
    a. She did not make the statement, and/or
    b. She has been smeared.”

    So you’re saying th onus is on th inocent smeared person (ALP Carmel Tarbutt) to give smear-ers (Greens) free publisity before you supply evidense of your smear

    You forget Australians believe in a fair go” , and believe someone is inocent unless a credible sourse & evidense is provided , and not you a NSW Greens suporter smearing a NSW ALP Minister Carmel Tarbutt with unsubstantiated slurs on an Internet bloging Site , which you refuse to substantate

    Because you hav already totaly refused a reasonable opportunity , to provide evidense (which is quite simple to provide if it was true) , it seems you ar relying on Greens suporters heresay making this smear up playing filthy politics against Carmel Tarbutt & Labor You seem simply a Greens Party Hack , abusing th basis of this public politcal Internet Site

    A reply will be disregarded , as Don said yesterday begining to look like you ar a piece

    Footnote , it is strange that on this politcal Internet site deelin mainly with Federal issues a NSW Green suporter’s smear is posted out of th blue in th year of 2010 , about NSW Labor’s Carmel Tarbutt alegedly making a statement THREE years ago (in 2007) , about an electon (in 2003) a further FOUR years ago

    (and furthermore about an Electorate she is not and was not even th Electorate Member for , and in fact she was not even then elected in th NSW Lower House So it seems its not only a unsubstantated smear against Carmel Tarbutt but an amaturish News beat up also

    My many Green’s Party friends ar appalled by th above unsubstantated smear against Carmel Tarbutt

  31. Vera, please dont start on Cher. I still have not got over Cherie Cher:

    sitting on one of these, singing: “If I could Turn Back Time”

    :kiss:

  32. Finns I love that “If I could Turn Back Time” video

    OK don’t want to stir you up so here is a nice G rated “love and understanding song instead.

    [Everybody’s got to live together
    All the people got to understand
    So, love your neighbour
    Like you love your brother
    Come on and join the band

    Well, all you need is love and understanding
    Ring the bell and let the people know
    We’re so happy and we’re celebratin’
    Come on and let your feelings show]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oADfmYQWmW8&feature=related :kiss:

  33. [1678 The Finnigans….briefly, you just love to hate them…]

    [1679 BH “‘Shock Jocks……. take an anxiety and turn it into fear and panic….That is what John Howard is good at doing……Fear is very easily turned into hate and rage.”]

    Well I know that whatever else I feel about the Liberals they are scary…..

  35. briefly
    latham and Abbott were old sparring partners, I think there was a book written about the pair of them and they bothe were at the book launch. This was when Latham was Labor leader.

  36. The prominent Opposition figures are either in some way a bit menacing….Abbott himself, Joyce (who seems unhinged), Bishop, B (who just seems nasty), Minchin, Robb, Tuckey (a demagogue); or just unreliable….Hockey, Pyne, Dutton. They usher in feelings of mistrust, anxiety, fear, repulsion……

  38. [they bothe were at the book launch.]

    The body language at the time was funny, Vera. The book was actually quite complimentary to Latham (author was Duffy the conservative) but Tabbott didn’t appear happy about being on the same stage and was trying a bit too hard.

    Latham was all smiles and rubbing it in. lol

    Funny how the MSM loves and admires Tabbott’s aggressiveness but didn’t like Lathams.

  39. briefly, i’ll add a couple to your scary opposition list
    Sophie Mirabella and Sharman Stone, they both have that crazed look about them

  40. [Funny how the MSM loves and admires Tabbott’s aggressiveness but didn’t like Lathams.]
    All they did was dig for dirt on Latham but Tone is treated like the knock about larrakin that everybody loves no matter what is in his past.
    All the female jurnos (even Crabby) are like giggling teenagers fawning over him, budgie smugglers 😛 yuck! 😛 and all.

  41. So ‘Laws’ is making a comeback. I can see it now. This guy’s going to make John Farnham seem like a novice for farewell tours and fond goodbyes. At least his ageing redneck audience won’t be perturbed. With the short-term memory problem, they won’t be aware he ever left!

  42. Ah, Sophie Mirabella. Now there’s a lady who makes me feel embarrassed every time I see her. Embarrassed for her! she comes across as a very vengeful lady and still can’t work out why they lost to that awful Kevin Rudd.

  44. [At least his ageing redneck audience won’t be perturbed. With the short-term memory problem, they won’t be aware he ever left!]

    When I stop laughing Cuppa I’ll say ‘too true’.

  45. I think the US Navy let Cher record that film-clip on the USS Missouri because they thought it would help recruitment. But I believe they didn’t know in advance about the outfit that she turned up in!

    Still “If I could turn back time” could be the theme song for TA and the Libs in 2010.

  46. Gary Bruce
    #1667

    “Peter, …..and becoming increasingly petty (with the associated name calling) and illogical. You’re well ON YOUR WAY old son.”

    Surely not well on his way to join me in your sin bin ?
    To inflict such a wicked penalty on me is wicked , shame shame

  47. Does anyone have any ideas why the “shock jocks” are such a Sydney phenomenon?

    On Lawsie – If I remember rightly he came out of the “cash for comments” stuff a bit better than Alan “The Entertainer” Jones [some of AJ’s defence being that he was an “entertainer” not a journalist!]

  48. Still “If I could turn back time” could be the theme song for TA and the Libs in 2010.’

    th Libs “born to rule” mentality reminds me of a lost boomarang , and th song
    ‘my boomarang won’t come back’

  49. Rocker R – SA, Vic and WA (from Frank C) all have shockjocks. The nightime in SA has old Bob Francis who used to be a fairly entertaining bloke years ago. Heard him last year when we were there and he was much like the Sydney blokes.

    Don’t know about Qld or Tassie but I’m sure they’ve got some.

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