Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.
Other news:
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.
• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.
• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.
[Spot the expressions on Murdoch’s face – calculating, deliberate hesitation and allround ‘get Rudd’.
He doesn’t think there needs to be extra corporate or banking regulation so in Murdoch’s estimation Obama, Brown and Rudd have to go. We just sit and watch his underlings do his bidding.]
BH, if i were to watch it. i would be a moron myself.
I think we should start with the assumption that “outlier” is spelt correctly: it is an “e”, not an “a”.
Watching the news I have to smile at how Kev is frustrating the heck out of the Murdock lackeys and Rupe himself as well.
They go all out with crud like Murdock criticised Rudd about this that and t’other or Turnbull slams Rudd and ooohwar Rudd had better watch out now!
But what does Kev do? He smiles and in a quiet angelic voice says, well it’s a free country and people can say whayever they like, I have no problem with that
Not shaken and by no means stirred, that our Kevin 007 🙂
Caesar must be worried about his southern empire. That Ruddamatix, jullia gotbishopbythenutsabix, Tannerfantastix and Wayne Econamatrix are just too big for their boots. There secret weapon Malcomus Turnbullheadednus can ruin every plan of craggy old Caesar
So, what happens if Newspoll’s sampling this weekend comes in with 55/45 to the ALP? Yup, that would be business as usual and confirm the outlier status of the previous poll, but surely the various opinionistas who were so quick to call doom and gloom for the govt would have to recant just as fast??
Since they came up with reasons for such a huge shift to the Libs so fast, they would then have to come up with reasons for a huge shift away just as fast wouldnt they??
Insiders on Sunday – Barrie interviewing Wayne Swan, the panel is Karen Middleton, David Marr and Piers Akerman. Thank God for Marr against Akerman. I love the scorn shown to Akerman lately and he deserves every last crumb of it.
If he was in business he’d be sacked for lack of ethics.
[Since they came up with reasons for such a huge shift to the Libs so fast, they would then have to come up with reasons for a huge shift away just as fast wouldnt they??]
Nah, it would be the Rudd media blitz swaying a volatile electorate.
Opinionistas never recant.
[Since they came up with reasons for such a huge shift to the Libs so fast, they would then have to come up with reasons for a huge shift away just as fast wouldnt they??]
They’ve covered themselves already. Oakes and Taylor have already stated that it doesn’t matter whether it is an outlier or not, the message remainds the same. Now that takes some spinning.
[Nah, it would be the Rudd media blitz swaying a volatile electorate.
Opinionistas never recant.]
Agree. They wouldn’t discredit the outlier in that situation, and probably even if it bounced back to a 56 or 57. It would all be how Rudd had to win the voters back by getting out and ‘selling’ his disastrous AS policy.
WTF
Murdoch thinks the government should be kinder to asylum seekers?
Maybe he should pass on that advice to the editors of his newspapers.
I reckon there’s something fishy (no not Finns 😉 ) going on if we have a Newspoll again this week after the supposed 14% turnaround of last week. Why didn’t they ask the asylum seeker questions last week like Essential did by the way?
I”ll take a punt and say this poll will be the same or only 1% point different to last week so as to give the Libs another week of traction and try to get some momentum going for them . They will lower Rudd’s PPM surely to at least give it a bit of cred? How’s 50/30 sound?
Vera and TP – thanks for the good oil. It’s raining and dreary here and nothing on telly and I’m saving the last of my book for bed so you’re cheering me up.
Finns – the interview is actually a work of art – horrific art to me, but we sat transfixed at the old sod playing his underling. The questions were probably written by Murdoch, with Spiers, but I can see why he has stayed at the top of limitednoos for so long and why they do what he wants. And his underlings have the audacity to say that Kev is a control freak. My gawd, they work for the biggest one there is.
So let’s see what their new poll says because they’ve been working hard all week to make sure it wasn’t an outlier.
Why is it even news when one man (Rupert Murdoch) expresses his political opinion? He isn’t even an Australian citizen any more is he? (Became US citizen in the 80s IIRC).
Wow! I went to Bolt’s blog again. Thought I might post. But you’d have to be pretty brave to post a contra comment there, wouldn’t you? (and I’m feeling all vulnerable at the moment)
I thought some of them comments here were rabid (including mine). We’re amateurs compared to Bolt’s crew.
I would expect the Opinionistas to say, “OK, this time we were wrong, but if the poll had been correct then…”
Unless of course Uncle Rupe has personally ordered another poll designed to confirm the first one. That would be hilarious, as nine tenths of the world went by Morgan and Essential (and possibly Nielsen) and the Rupert-Droids stuck to Newspoll.
I’m wondering whether the last Newspoll was cooked up to provide the Boss with a Welcom Home present? Or will this one be?
[Why is it even news when one man (Rupert Murdoch) expresses his political opinion? He isn’t even an Australian citizen any more is he? (Became US citizen in the 80s IIRC).]
Which can be solved by changing the Media Laws to ensure that non Australian Citizens cannot own any media outlet 🙂
A “special” newspoll is becoming more regular. They did one a few weeks ago, maybe newspoll are about to go weekly?
[Maybe he should pass on that advice to the editors of his newspapers.]
So is the problem with Murdoch that he calls the tune for his grovelling lackey editors, or that he doesn’t do this?
And why did the ABC devote a good proportion of their news tonight to a report on Rupert Murdoch’s opinion of Kevin Rudd?
We know News Ltd is a propoganda arm of the Liberal Party, what’s new?
I say three cheers for Kev for having the courage to say “FARQ You” to the faces of Rupe, Bolt, Janet, Barnaby, Turnbull etc etc.
[Why is it even news when one man (Rupert Murdoch) expresses his political opinion?]
Um, because he owns the news?
I wonder if ‘Alex’ has been talking by mobile to the people on the OV and telling them what to do. Perhaps the ABC or was it Ch7 has been providing mobiles all round.
I reckon the Indonesians should drag ‘Alex’, the known smuggler, off that boat into clink and then see what the others do. It could be over really quickly.
[So is the problem with Murdoch that he calls the tune for his grovelling lackey editors, or that he doesn’t do this?]
Bilbo, no. the problem is Rupert Murdoch, period. he thinks he is still the King of the Jungle. Tarzan has moved on.
Me Tarzan, you Wendy just doesn’t sound right 😆
On one of my channel surfs last week I came across Rupe doing an interview with one of his underlings on Fox. So it must be the time of year for him to do the rounds.
I don’t know if it was Beck, Hannity or who doing the interview because he was so far up Rupe you could only see his boot!
BH@621:
[I reckon the Indonesians should drag ‘Alex’, the known smuggler, off that boat into clink and then see what the others do. It could be over really quickly.]
A very interesting scenario!
[Maybe he should pass on that advice to the editors of his newspapers.
So is the problem with Murdoch that he calls the tune for his grovelling lackey editors, or that he doesn’t do this?]
Mostly it is ‘star and stripes’, when it should be “advance australia fair”
BH: Alex and his claims to be a Sri Lankan asylum seeker looked dodgy from Day 1!
Murdoch: if he is genuinely compassionate towards asylum seekers, he’s certainly at odds with his editors and journalists, but perhaps that’s proof that Rupert doesn’t entirely control what his employees write.
After Ruperts UK paper resorted to bugging MPs and celebrities in order to get stories, does anyone think it would be beyond the Dark Lord to ‘fix’ Newspoll?
Alex: Not Happy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNXKnJ6J4CY
William – they know exactly what he wants from them. Slight twist for different papers but he gets what he wants. He only needed a few words in that interview and just look at the spread.
The book written by his former editor in chief during the Wopping/Union thing is chilling. Lack of influence would be a killer for Murdoch.
A tip.
The new Fairfax Digital will blow News away. They are spending squillions and hiring very capable staff. They have finally bitten the bullet and will not follow rupe in his pay for view crusade.
“Mal and the Malcontents” what a great name for the Libs. However it’s the name of the next 4 Corners story about Turnbull and the Libs re the ETS.
[f he is genuinely compassionate towards asylum seekers, he’s certainly at odds with his editors and journalists, but perhaps that’s proof that Rupert doesn’t entirely control what his employees write.]
Evan14 – perhaps that’s the scenario he wants. The papers back up the Oppn hardline policy but he can stand back and say that he wants them treated fairly after processing. He didn’t say anything about people smuggling really.
Rua – I hope you’re right because I’d like to see them succeed over Murdoch. They’ve been getting a belting by the hypocritical limitednoos for months. I’ve just started buying Satdy SMH now that Mike Carlton is back. He gives you a bit of everything in his column.
[They are spending squillions and hiring very capable staff. ]
Rua, they should hire back Margo Kingston. She was the pioneer of blogging.
[if he is genuinely compassionate towards asylum seekers]
I doubt that.
Therein lies the resolution of the paradox.
I reckon pollbludgers should occasionally read the Australian newspaper.
OK, I’m biased, they have the Times cryptic, (and the Sunday Times cryptic on saturday (!) which I can actually get out occasionally, as opposed to half a dozen clues only in the regular Times).
But this weekend, the Australian magazine has a very nice portrait of St Kev on the cover, under the headline “Command and Control: Is Kevin Rudd the most powerful PM in Australian history?”
And they go on, in the article to say, yes, pretty much, he is.
It is as close to hagiographic as the OO ever gets.
The gist of it is that he has total control over his staff and the other members of parliament, and parliament itself for that matter. This would sit well with the Australian public, I feel.
That he is a master politician, he gives no quarter, he works his staff very hard – and they are lining up to be his staff, despite the “shrinkage” factor. If you can make it with Kev, you can make it anywhere, as they used to say about NY. Looks bloody good on your CV, for a start.
They are all volunteers. As one comment in the article says “No one has put a bayonet to the belly of those staffers. They do it because they want to do it.”
He is agreed to be a pragmatist, a good thing in my opinion.
A very interesting quote:
“Whereas Howard lost a succession of ministers during a sloppy and ill-disciplined first term in power, Rudd has only lost one – defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon”.
Robert Ray, as readers here would know, is a very knowledgeable politician. He is quoted as saying “The amazing thing is that this Government has made so few mistakes. That would be put down by Ruddites to a very tight system, tight decision making etc. But I think that is nonsense. I think discipline has come from within rather than as a gun to the head of those ministers. They have been a very disciplined outfit.”
From Ray, that is high praise indeed.
I will continue to buy the Australian. Like the polls, it is biased, ok, fine. But it is the trend that is important, so long as you know the bias in the first place.
I think that OO journalists are beginning to give a grudging acceptance to a smart operator.
Your average australian is not a political tragic like most of us here. They want the government to get on with it, and leave them alone to enjoy life. Have a few beers, chuck a barbie for their friends, have a cuppa or a drink with their mates.
The Weekend Australian Magazine article gives good reason for yer average aussie to have a few beers and watch sport on telly knowing the country is in good hands.
BB et al
As I’ve said before, NEVER EVER post on Bolt’s blog.
The instinct is to point out how seriously deluded they are. Pointing out that, no matter how politely, leads to a torrent of abuse and further ridiculous arguments which you then feel aggrieved enough to point out. You get sucked in to the sewer with them. It is an exercise in futility to argue with them.
[I don’t think Rudd would relish the idea of sending in the troops to get rid of them. He’ll try to negotiate them off the ship. If that fails in the next few days he should bring them here where our legal system can deal with them in a public court with set and fair procedures.]
As I’ve pointed out on many times, we cannot send in troops as Indonesia have said it would violate their sovereignty. And I’ll give you 100:1 on Rudd bringing them to Australia to charge them with hijacking. He will let them go at a place yet to be determined.
[And I’ll give you 100:1 on Rudd bringing them to Australia to charge them with hijacking.]
That would be the threat if they don’t get off in an orderly fashion.
Thanks for that Don – if that is the story, and by what I hear from kids in ACT and what Psephos said, then why the Oakes story today suggesting Labor insiders are leaking info to him. Is Oakes doing a Milne?
Only thing is Don that all over every online news site/telly/radio today the story is that Rudd only wants to be ruler of the world and that Murdoch doesn’t think he has what it takes. Not many of them would have read the Weekend Magazine.
I must admit I miss the crosswords but the SMH one is pretty good.
[As I’ve pointed out on many times, we cannot send in troops as Indonesia have said it would violate their sovereignty.]
Diog, the gun boat diplomacy died with the Opium War.
Finns
I thought Psephos was trying to bring it back. 😉
BB
I’ll still give you 100:1 if they don’t get off in an orderly fashion.
Diog, if Psephos has his way, it would be Kevinapolen Bonaparte Rudd the First, Emperor of Australia with Empress Therese.
BH@639:
[I must admit I miss the crosswords but the SMH one is pretty good.]
Yeah, I really enjoy the SMH cryptics, except for Friday’s!
That one should only be done in company with consenting adults in a spirit of friendly cooperation. And a nip of Scotch doesn’t hurt, either.
But Wednesday is DP (Don’s Pal) and that I can nearly always get out. He often puts a sting in the tail, but. Some of those last few clues are often diabolical.
BH@639:
[Murdoch doesn’t think he has what it takes. ]
Yes, but he would say that, wouldn’t he?
I can’t believe the status that Rudd appears to have garnered to himself. When Murdoch takes him seriously enough to try to put him down, that says a lot. If Rudd wasn’t so impressive, Murdoch wouldn’t need to try to dismiss him as an impotent upstart with no credibility.
We live in interesting times.
[If Rudd wasn’t so impressive, Murdoch wouldn’t need to try to dismiss him as an impotent upstart with no credibility. ]
Don – Surely a lot of it is about advertising. Think of the millions in lost revenue due to Rudd & Tanner being tight with it. I can’t work out why Murdoch would accept an invitation to dinner with Rudd at the Embassy in New York, spend hours there, be the last to leave I believe, and then speak as he has today.
Murdoch said he was thinskinned, but went on to say that all other Prime Ministers were too. That did not get a run. Howard spent 2/3rds of his day on media spin – as written by his COS, Arthur Sinodinus. Not a word from the press about that waste of time.
Wonder if Murdoch expected Kev to get him greater exposure in China and it hasn’t come off.
Cryptic crosswords – used to love them and I should start doing them again because Norman Swann says they help to keep the ‘oldtimers’ away and are good for the brain cells.
BH@639:
[why the Oakes story today suggesting Labor insiders are leaking info to him. Is Oakes doing a Milne? ]
I looked that up, and readers can find it at:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26316992-5007146,00.html
BH, in short, I don’t know. Laurie Oakes used to be very influential, maybe he still is, but people here haven’t been quoting him much. He’s certainly a smart operator, he’s been around for a long, long time and knows where the bodies are buried.
But why would labor people be leaking to him and not to all and sundry? I am tempted to think he is doing a Milne as you suggest and making it up as he goes along. That’s not characteristic if so, I had thought he was a very accomplished commentator with total integrity, and I have no reason to think that is not the case – yet it doesn’t seem logical that labor parliamentarians are sending him stuff derogatory to Kev that is not going to every one else.
Kev is in the ascendancy, that’s the sort of thing that the libs would be doing to Turnbull, who is patently on the way out, a dead man walking.
Too hard for me.
[ I reckon pollbludgers should occasionally read the Australian newspaper.]
Sorry Don. They would have to drop the garbage about being the *heart of the nation* on their masthead first.
How dare they write such nonsense.
A few years down the track when rupert falls off the perch, probably no australian newspaper any more anyway ?
The truth hurts, i wouldnt be so cocky. You and your MSM mates may look pretty stupid come next Neilsen and Newspoll
[If Rudd wasn’t so impressive, Murdoch wouldn’t need to try to dismiss him as an impotent upstart with no credibility.]
In the Murdoch interview I saw, Rudd was described as “very able, intelligent and interesting”.
Over on Possum’s blog, he says newspoll are out in the field again this weekend – so look s like next week will be a Nielson, Newspoll double act