Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.
Other news:
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.
• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.
• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.
The Age usually updates about 12.15 am to 12.30 am each night/morning. The Nielsen poll is usually in The Age. So I would like out for it then if you can stay awake.
Aristotle,
I would think that “any” pollster who came up with a 51/49 2pp result prior to an election or almost on election eve, would logically conclude that the party on 51% “would” win that election.
2001 was the exception in that Labor’s campaign team omitted to put enough, or in some cases, any resources, into Coalition marginal seats, allowing Howard to scrape home.
Keating was ropeable and rightly condemned them for their incompetence. Strangely enough, most of them were involved in Rudd’s win in 2007!
Election2001
51/49
Newspoll
8/11/2001
Coalition 53/47
Importance
10/10/2001
MANAGEMENT OF THE ECONOMY 83
PUBLIC HEALTH FUNDING AND MEDICARE 76
JOB SECURITY 72
THE USE OF AUSTRALIA’S DEFENCE
FORCE AGAINST INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM 68
IMMIGRATION, INCLUDING THE TREATMENT OF ASYLUM SEEKERS 66
PLANS FOR GST CHANGES, INCLUDING A ROLLBACK 50
AS ISSUES
4/9/2001
TURN BACK ALL BOATS
CARRYING ASYLUM-SEEKERS 50
ALLOW SOME BOATS TO ENTER AUSTRALIA
DEPENDING ON THE CIRCUMSTANCES 38
Issues
June 2001
EDUCATION 80
HEALTH & MEDICARE 76
UNEMPLOYMENT 67
FAMILY ISSUES 63
TAXATION 63
THE ENVIRONMENT 62
WELFARE AND SOCIAL ISSUES 62
LEADERSHIP 59
INTEREST RATES 51
INFLATION 49
DEFENCE 38
INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS 35
IMMIGRATION 30
ABORIGINAL AND NATIVE TITLE ISSUES 29
“2001 was the exception in that Labor’s campaign team omitted to put enough, or in some cases, any resources, into Coalition marginal seats, allowing Howard to scrape home.”
WRONG again.
The coalition got 51.03% two party preferred in 2001. They also got a strong 43% primary vote vs Labors dismal 37%.
You are most likely talking about the 1998 election.
The CM usually updates very soon after 12.00 and I think they carry Nielsen too.
Maybe the Libs should employ Team Britney to do their PR Work 🙂
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/britney-bites-back-20091108-i3e3.html
Four Corners tomorrow night: Climate change dividing the Liberals.
Ah bugger this. I’ll find out the news tomorrow!
“Four Corners tomorrow night: Climate change dividing the Liberals.”
….and boring the nation.(except for Green Left Weekly subscribers)
In both 20012 and 1998 the ALP ran very poor marginal seat campaigns, i watched both elections from Dunkley and the ALP’s material was pathetic and negatative.
The ALP realised too much on the voters taking their disliking of Howard and turning that into ALP votes rather than going out there and actually providing a good reason to change.
I think it was 2001 but the ALP candidate basically spent the whole campaign hanging around the State ALP MP’s office, i once followed him around the local shopping centre and he made no effort to speak with the voters instead had his hands in his pockets
20012 = 2001
[“2001 was the exception in that Labor’s campaign team omitted to put enough, or in some cases, any resources, into Coalition marginal seats, allowing Howard to scrape home.”
WRONG again.
The coalition got 51.03% two party preferred in 2001. They also got a strong 43% primary vote vs Labors dismal 37%.
You are most likely talking about the 1998 election.]
Partly guilty your worship! I shall rephrase it to suit!
1998 and 2001 were notable in that Labor’s campaign team omitted to put enough, or in some cases, any resources, into Coalition marginal seats, allowing Howard to scrape home both times although Labor had the added disadvantage in 2001 with Howard’s effective asylum seeker fear factor being very effective!
That better?
On the difficulty of 7 presidents trying to get a Health care bill through with Obama on the verge. One comment was that the Republicans truly fear it as it would be of the most benefit to their base, the poor in the Southern States.
Another new fear for them will be an ascendant and powerful Obama should it get through the Senate.
I recall being more devastated about the 2001 election result than 1998 or 2004!
Kim Beazley never got credit for saving a dozen or so Labor seats from going to the Coalition.
Does anyone have any polls showing how important climate change is to their vote?
I realise that it was the big “issue” a few years ago, but I have a feeling that Australians, including myself are now finding the issue to be a big yawner. More important things are on our minds such as the economy. Therefore the claim that everyones waiting at the edge of their seat on whether Rudd’s 5% cut of 1% of world emmisions is better than Turnbulls 6.29% cut of 1% is actually a reality, or rather Australians have simply switched off on the topic.
I’m thinking the latter.
The Republicans are absolute pigs. What a disgrace to democracy.
[“I Object”: Tom Price Tries To Shut Down Democratic Congresswomen]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/07/i-object-tom-price-tries_n_349587.html
[ The Republicans are absolute pigs. What a disgrace to democracy. ]
Yep. Agree.
As are the liberals, Nats. Limited News & associates.
I would agree with TTH tough without recalling any polls on the issue. It is hard to maintain passion about an issue over a long period of time. Whilst people want something done they may be getting tired with the debate and the details of the solution.
What is often required are dramatic examples of things going wrong. Before the election there was a long drought to play on everyone’s mind and the drying up of the Murray and of course Al Gore’s action.
It is hard to get people to stay focussed on doing something to avert a long future effect. The more imminent they feel it the more focussed they might be.
However even with diminishing passion I think people have accepted that action must be taken to make it a major issue and want the govt to get whatever it is they have through the Parliament.
A ‘very’ interesting article here. What stands out is contrary to claims of some in the Opposition and deniers and sceptics in this country, Australia doesn’t seem to feature in this much less be a trailblazing leader in the climate change debate!
[There are just over four weeks to go before the Copenhagen conference intended to agree a new international framework for controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The final round of preparatory talks in Barcelona has revealed deep divisions between some of the key participants.]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8345343.stm
AC Neilsen poll out! 56/44.
[AUSTRALIANS are divided over how Kevin Rudd is handling the asylum-seeker issue in an Age/Nielsen poll that takes some skin off the Prime Minister but contains little joy for Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull.
Kevin Rudd’s disapproval is up 5 points and 44 per cent of Australians think current asylum-seeker policy is too soft.
But Labor’s two-party lead has fallen only 1 point in a month. The ALP’s margin is 56-44 per cent, which would give the Government extra seats.
Mr Turnbull’s hopes that the Labor plunge in last week’s Newspoll would continue have been dashed, although the asylum-seeker issue seems to be a small negative for Mr Rudd.
Mr Turnbull’s approval rating has risen only slightly, and the Coalition’s primary vote has increased only 1 point, to 38 per cent, 7 points behind Labor’s 45 per cent (down 1 point).]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/nation-split-on-rudds-asylumseeker-stance-20091108-i3in.html
New thread.