Morgan: 61-39

Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.

Other news:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.

• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.

• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. [There has been a bit of rough air over the past few days and though the polls probably hadn’t changed before the concerted media effort since may have caused enough confusion to leak some votes away from Labor.]

    Yes, BB’s bootstrap effect. It will be interesting!

  3. [If I was running the The Oz and had a new Newspoll up my sleeve, I’d run it tomorrow for no other reason than to suck air out of Fairfax]

    So would I (and then I’d have a look at the staffing, and call a few people into my office for a chat about their future…)

  5. [10 also saying a report says we’ll pay $320PA extra on electric bills if the ETS come in]

    Vera – the dopey Barnaby Joyce lot have been getting to people with talk of paying heaps for it. Ch10 should have said it will cost you less than 2 cappucinos a week $6.15 approx. and that you’ll be compensated. It doesn’t sound so scarey to the oldies.

    Like Don, I appreciate your bits from free to air. Handy to know what they are saying.

  6. [amigo is always the one to do the hard yakka]
    It never stops Finns 😉
    I’m working at entering politics at the moment, what do you think? :kiss:

  9. [Are the Nats and Greens backing the Telstra split?]

    The Nats give mixed signals on just about everything to start with, then they just end up voting against it. I’m ruling them out.

    Pretty sure the Greens are for it.

  12. It is instructive of the state of affairs with the Australian media and the Liberal Party that the thing they can find to attack the Govt is a rogue poll. Discounting the planned fake email affair of course.

  15. Finns – who ya gunna choose between Ms Stardust and the newcomer at 906? Brilliant piccie.

    The piece linked to Huffington Post earlier (re Murdoch fighting MNSBC) shows that he does the same wherever nooslimited reaches. And the comments echo ours.

  16. GG, sounds OK to me 🙂

    Wonder if Essential will be the same as usual tomorrow? That is anywhere between 56 and 61.
    I don’t suppose it matters for all the attention it gets but it is good for morale.

  23. BH
    I had a look back a few threads and one where William combined a Nielson and Newspoll.
    [Nielsen: 57-43; Newspoll: 58-42
    Monday, October 12, 2009 – 1:01 am, by William Bowe]
    [The Australian has also published a “special Newspoll survey” conducted over the weekend]
    So this is probably what will happen tomorrow maybe?

    we might get them late tonight then

  25. Predictions Nielson and Newspoll? Prior to the over the top noise over the last Newspoll I would have predicted..something like newspoll 58/43 and nielson 57/45 but now I would guess at 57/43 and 56/45 – not because of the noise but because of Rudd’s lack of clearly dealing with the issues.

    It is however always possible that people will have forgotten over the past few days how useless the Liberal Party is at the moment and give them more support.

    However, more images and words from Howard could push him back up to 59.

    Rudd went the right way in internationalising the issue/solution and he should have continued and expanded talk down that path. Maybe he wanted to but couldn’t get any regional takers on board.

  28. Who agrees with me that Howard’s reemergence will be counter-productive for the Liberals? I bet Turnball welcomes it like a hole in the head.

  33. [Cricket’s over. 8:30 start! That’s pure D wrong: cricket starts at 11am and finishes at 6pm. Period.]
    Amazing series win considering how many injuries we have had to deal with.

    We didn’t even have Michael Clarke in the side who was our best batsmen for the entire Ashes tour.

  35. I won’t try to predict the polls as it’s pretty futile but I will say that if the shift Newspoll detected was real and due to the AS issue, the next poll should worse than the last one as the OV is still in Indonesia and that boat sank since the last Newspoll. If the next Newspoll moves back to Rudd, the narrative of Rudd failing on AS has flopped.

  36. Grog @ 920, Newspoll comes out every fortnight and so just by its sheer no.s is discussed more. Also, back in the 1980’s Bob Hawke gave an off the cuff remark that Newspoll was “the most accurate” and that sort of stuck for a while. I don’t know if anyone still speaks of Newspoll in those terms, except those with vested interests.

    Howard always said Galaxy was the “most accurate”.

    Morgan used to publish its polls in the Bulletin, the Morgan Gallup Poll. I think Packer sacked them after the 2001 election when Gary Morgan insisted the ALP was going to win.

  39. Gary Morgan reckon he would quit if the Liberals won the 2001 poll, he never followed tough with that and therefore as no crediability

  40. [Galaxy
    Newspoll
    AC

    These are the only ones worth noting IMHO.]

    Glen, I have serious reservations about Newspoll, particularly if last week’s poll turns out to be a rogue one.

  43. [Julian Morrow will present the annual Andrew Olle Media Lecture. As co-founder and ringmaster of The Chaser, Morrow has seen the highs and lows of the media glare and made a lasting impact on the current debate about news, satire and freedom of speech.

    The lecture focuses on the role and future of the media, as well as profiling the work of the Andrew Olle Memorial Trust which raises money for neuroscience research with an emphasis on brain tumours.
    ]
    ABC 1 at 10:15

  49. I know Morgan’s researchers went back to each of the respondents straight after the 2001 election and re-interviewed them all. They found a number had changed their votes and so he concluded there had been a swing away from the ALP in that last period, last few days I think.

    As I mentioned before on various threads, who knows what the “true” answer of voting intentions is?

    We only know the “true” answer in an election and so only polling on election eve can give us an indication of who’s “the most accurate.” Which when it comes to polling is like the bobbing heads of horses on the finish line. Luck plays the major role in giving bragging rights.

    For the record in 2007, Newspoll, Galaxy and Morgan were all very close (within moe), with Morgan claiming the bragging rights. Nielsen which published earlier in the final week, was way out.

    It happens to all of them.

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