Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.
Other news:
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.
• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.
• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.
Crikey you’re gullible William. And yes, I’m very leery and cynical when it comes to Murdoch. Who wouldn’t be?
Don – will be interesting to see what Oakes writes next week. I don’t see him on telly – can’t get Ch9. Surprised me that Robert Ray has a different take to Oakes and thanks for putting them up.
Andrew – I hope you’re right. I can’t bear the thought of the AS issue to be the one that wins another election for the Libs. I would love them to go back to a bipartisan policy on this one. Better in the long run for all of us.
Yes, he did say that William so why wasn’t that in the headline or mentioned in any of the stories.
Don – 652. I didn’t mean that I was surprised at Robert Ray’s comments (I agree with them). Just surprised at Oakes but then again I scream at the telly when journos ask the same question over and over so he’s entitled to his screaming.
I have just seen the Murdoch/Speers interview. Rupe was asked how he thinks Rudd is going. Rupe said that Rudd had nothing to do with commodities boom. (There was Speers, nodding his head and smiling in adoring agreement).
Rupe was also asked was he thought of Rudd’s stimulus spending. Rupe implied that it was unecessary for Australia because we were not about to collapse. He went on to say that the national finances were fantastically managed by Howard and Costello so the 40 or so billion spent were neither here or there. No nodding or smiling from Speers on that one.
Of course, the commodities boom is only mentioned when it comes to Rudd but not Howard, isn’t it! 😡
Bilbo, he also said:
[Mr Murdoch also criticised the prime minister for being too interested in making his mark on the global stage.
‘He’s different in that he’s more ambitious to lead the world than to lead Australia,’ he said, before quickly adding that the comment may be a ‘little unfair’ even though ‘there’s some truth in it’.]
And what is wrong with Rudd or anybody trying to make his/her mark on then global stage. Has he (Rupe) not tried to make his mark on the global stage? It’s OK for him but not Rudd.
BB
What drives your comments today, old son? I just read through today’s well-tuned discussions, but your cunning ‘plans’ were an elequently delivered sequence of bum notes. Unless you have had lunch with Robert Ludlam recently I’d suggest that your recurring theme about a hijack on the OV is the product of an inadvertent overdose of something or other. Even worse was the idea of entrapping the poor buggers into a desperate struggle after allowing them to believe they were destined for Xmas Is. Come on.
What it makes me realise is how thin is the veneer of propriety and fariness in us all, that can be exposed iin times of hysteria and fear. Thank buddha for the international conventions and the rule of law we are lucky enough to be clinging on to, when someone even as smart as you BB starts talking like you have today.
[And what is wrong with Rudd or anybody trying to make his/her mark on then global stage. Has he (Rupe) not tried to make his mark on the global stage? It’s OK for him but not Rudd.]
The conservatives are so against Rudd that they begin to slag off even their own country or, in the case of Rupert, their own ex-country, abandoned for a Green Card.
What’s the downside to Rudd trying to have influence on the world stage? At worst, a few taxpayers’ dollars wasted on pointless trips. At best, the coming of age of a new nation in geopolitics.
Rupert likes his Aussie PM’s servile. Rudd bucks Rupert’s Law on this. Rudd must go. It’s really quite simple.
If Rupert’s Newspoll wanted to report a Labor 52-48 result all they would have to do is restrict their survey to the seats of Wentworth, Sturt and Nth Sydney? :p
I was a bit miffed at how often Rupert M used the words ‘we’ ‘us’ etc referring to Australia.
He isn’t a ‘we’ or an ‘us’, he’s a ‘them’. He hasn’t lived or worked here for years. It’s a bit rude of him pretending to be one of ‘us’ when he isn’t even a citizen.
[Even worse was the idea of entrapping the poor buggers into a desperate struggle after allowing them to believe they were destined for Xmas Is. Come on.]
“Entrapment” was your word, JV, not mine. I specifically rebutted that usage. In fact I argued that giving them one last chance to do the decent thing and give up would be a favour to them. If they don’t take it, then that’s their choice. They deal with the consequences.
You just can’t have groups of people take ships over and let them off with a caution. It’s bad policy and it’s very bad politics.
[I was a bit miffed at how often Rupert M used the words ‘we’ ‘us’ etc referring to Australia.]
Me too. The man is without shame.
[ Rupe was also asked was he thought of Rudd’s stimulus spending. Rupe implied that it was unecessary for Australia because we were not about to collapse. ]
Gittens has another view here :
http://www.smh.com.au/business/look-at-jobless-to-measure-recession-20091106-i24a.html
the trained observer concludes the stimulus has been remarkably effective, far more effective than even its instigators expected.
But they don’t delude themselves that, because the stimulus worked so well, it mustn’t have been needed or is now no longer needed.
It worked so well it managed to avert any contraction in real GDP, though it hasn’t prevented (on present forecasts) three years of ”weak growth” – growth below the trend and ”potential” annual rate of about 3 per cent – and so hasn’t prevented a significant rise in measured and hidden unemployment.
Conclusion: yes, we have had a recession, but it’s been surprisingly mild and we’re now in the recovery phase
[Of course, the commodities boom is only mentioned when it comes to Rudd but not Howard, isn’t it! ]
and Howard *trying to make* his mark on the world stage was *vision* according to the oo.
murdoch is the the one with delusions of grandeur.
Oh well, guess we;ll all find out Monday night.
57% the focus will be all on the asylum seeker questions, and ignore the 2pp
[Crikey you’re gullible William.]
So Murdoch didn’t say Rudd was “very able, intelligent and interesting”? Golly.
[Bilbo, he also said:
Mr Murdoch also criticised the prime minister for being too interested in making his mark on the global stage.
‘He’s different in that he’s more ambitious to lead the world than to lead Australia,’ he said, before quickly adding that the comment may be a ‘little unfair’ even though ‘there’s some truth in it’.]
Heard that too. So the part of Don’s comment where he said Murdoch had called Rudd an “impotent upstart” was merely grotesque exaggeration. However, the bit where he asserted Murdoch had said he had “no credibility” went beyond that, and into the realm of total bollocks.
[Yes, he did say that William so why wasn’t that in the headline or mentioned in any of the stories.]
Now you’re talking.
How about when Rupe was asked if he thought Rudd was thin skinned? I was waiting for the “yes” answer, the jug boiled, got myself a cuppa, came back and Rupe still hadn’t answered the question. Then we hear a muttering of “yes-m-no-yes” or something. Little bit weak there I thought Rupe. 😛
BB
[You just can’t have groups of people take ships over and let them off with a caution.]
What takeover? I drink McLaren Vale shiraz – what are you on?
[Crikey you’re gullible William.]
Bilbo is just as gullible as Rupe. As Rupe thought Wendy Deng was related to that well known Hakka Deng “rich is glorious” Xiao Ping.
[Rupe implied that it was unecessary for Australia because we were not about to collapse. ]
Interesting how Rudd’s critics dismiss most of his efforts in many policy areas in terms like, “That was the easy part, the hard part is…” (insert appropriate hard part here).
Avoiding the GFC was easy. The hard part will be managing the recovery. So how come almost every other country in the world didn’t even manage the easy part?
Uhlmann has a go too, on the ABC website:
[The Prime Minister has proven himself to be a formidable politician since he won the Labor leadership in late 2006, usually positioning himself on the right side of every argument. But, in all that time, he has faced no sustained political pressure and it was always going to be fascinating to watch how he, and his very young office, handled it. The answer is, not well. At the first sign of real trouble the PM and his office show every sign of panic and policy paralysis.]
“No sustained political pressure”? How about the Grech business? How about the relentless criticism of everything to do with the response to the GFC: the schools stimulus, the $900, the bank guarantees, the higher unemployment, the interest rates going up, “managing the recovery” (whatever that means)? The Apology. The G20… I could go on but will spare youse the litany.
Hartcher invented a test for Rudd this morning. Kelly’s always got one up his sleeve. Rupert says there was no test on the GFC because it was so easy. They’re always inventing tests, or when Rudd makes it look easy, dismissing their own tests as “easy”.
[So Murdoch didn’t say Rudd was “very able, intelligent and interesting”? Golly.]
The gullible bit comes in when you believe that because he said it you can convincingly argue that he meant it.
[What takeover? I drink McLaren Vale shiraz – what are you on?]
I’m sick of arguing with you JV. Have another McLaren Vale for me.
I actually think it a bit unlikely that Murdoch finds Rudd hopeless, stupid and boring, but who knows.
[57% the focus will be all on the asylum seeker questions, and ignore the 2pp]
Something weird happened there…
I typed
If the result are:
less than 55% – “Honeymoon Over, Libs back in the Game:
55-56 – “Rudd slips”
57+ Ignore the 2PP, focus on the asylum seekers
Apparently Jack the Insider is on Talking Pictures tomorrow.
BB
[I’m sick of arguing with you JV. Have another McLaren Vale for me]
You can’t get off that lightly BB, I’ve been away most of the day. But I will have another McLaren Vale now you mention it, thank you. 🙂
Ms ‘not-JV’ just suggested to me at the post-dinner table that your suggestion is to liken the asylum seekers on the OV to Somalian pirates. Would you concur?
“Alex” might be a firtune -seeking smuggler, but there are 77 others on board with claims. Why not bring ’em in and see if they are legit? If not -next plane out. where’s there problem in that?
You wouldn’t be talking like this if the 78 were white Zimbabwian businessmen fleeing death threats from Mugabe.
Now “Jack” is truly unbiased. He gives it to both sides.
It took real marbles to stimulate spending into the economy and to go into the red.
Rudd saved us from a recession and the MSM & Liberals know it.
What was the MSM & Liberals response to Rudd avoiding a recession? Utegate, the very next day after the release of the GDP figures.
[You wouldn’t be talking like this if the 78 were white Zimbabwian businessmen fleeing death threats from Mugabe.]
I’ve got news for JV.
BB, I suggest JV is calling you racist.
[What was the MSM & Liberals response to Rudd avoiding a recession? Utegate]
The first batch of the Great Wall Utes Made in China has arrived in Australia. All we need is a chinese business woman to “donate” one to Kev. Then everyone will be happy. 😀
Turnbull gets a standing ovation for attacking Rudd at Liberal Conference.
[KEVIN Rudd is running an “extraordinarily vain” government that is handing over Australia’s immigration program to people smugglers, Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull says.
Mr Turnbull was speaking at the Victorian Liberal Party’s state council today where about 300 delegates gave him a standing ovation for a speech marked by scaresult in a weakening of Australia’s border control.
“Our borders should be secure, they were secure. We recklessly unpicked the policies of the previous government that worked, and as a result he has outsourced our immigration program to the people smugglers,” Mr Turnbull said.
About 50 boats and 2200 people have arrived over the past 14 months, Mr Turnbull said, calling it a “real surge” in arrivals.
On climate change, he told reporters after his speech at Geelong’s Deakin University that negotiations with the Government on an emissions trading scheme were going well, despite Mr Rudd claiming on Friday that the talks could be sabotaged by climate change sceptics within the Liberal Party.
“That speech had a slightly loopy flavour to it,” Mr Turnbull said of Mr Rudd’s comments.
“It was really quite over the top. I think it just shows how desperate he’s become.” ]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,26319787-5005361,00.html
Frank, if he couldn’t get a standing ovation there he may as well give up. I wonder how many people meant it.
[You wouldn’t be talking like this if the 78 were white Zimbabwian businessmen fleeing death threats from Mugabe.]
Pissweak argument, JV. The hypothetical Zimbabwean farmers, as you present them, have a claim. We don’t know anything about the Sri Lankans’ background. How can we judge their claim alongside the farmers? We can’t.
All we know is they hijacked the ship that rescued them.
[Frank, if he couldn’t get a standing ovation there he may as well give up. I wonder how many people meant it.]
I saw it on the ABC News. After he finished his speech he waved them a desultory goodbye, walked completely off the stage back to his table, and only then did they start to stand and clap, mostl lkely urged on by some off-camera spruiker. It was the most grudging of standing ovations.
[BB, I suggest JV is calling you racist.]
I don’t care, because I’m not. I just don’t like people who ruin it for everyone: their rescuers, the intended nation of residence and its government, their fellow refugees. They have done more to damage the plight of refugees than all the other boat people put together.
Charging someone with racism is the last pathetic attempt to win a lost argument. I can’t change the colour of the skin of these Sri Lankans. To accuse me of racism for criticising their behaviour (not their colour) is lazy.
Crikey: three (now four) posts in a row. I’m off to bed.
yes, this is no doubt the best of America, shooting at each other. sometimes, i wish Obama would do away with this sort of crappy comment.
[WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama dedicated his weekly radio address Saturday to the shooting that occurred at the Fort Hood military base this week.
Mr. Obama said he will be tracking the investigation into how suspect Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, 39, allegedly shot and killed 13 people and wounded dozens of others on Thursday.
The president met Friday with the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation to discuss the incident. While Mr. Obama deplored the violence at the military medical center, he also extolled the bravery of the soldiers who quickly came to the aid of victims.
“Thursday’s shooting was one of the most devastating ever committed on an American military base,” Mr. Obama said in prepared remarks. “And yet, even as we saw the worst of human nature on full display, we also saw the best of America.”
Mr. Obama was also quick to note the diversity of U.S. military personnel. “They are Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus and nonbelievers,” he said. Mr. Hasan, a Muslim, was scheduled to be deployed to Afghanistan.]
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125759217299235963.html
[I saw it on the ABC News. After he finished his speech he waved them a desultory goodbye, walked completely off the stage back to his table, and only then did they start to stand and clap, mostl lkely urged on by some off-camera spruiker. It was the most grudging of standing ovations.]
And here is the footage, including the words of Citizen Rupert 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/11/07/2736192.htm
my brother in sweden works sometime for a multimill/billionaire. (he has on and off for the last 30 yrs or so)
the guy is approaching his mid 90’s and is still quite active and aware,anyways his secret is foetal lamb blood,which he recieves in a clinic in switzerland every quarter.
apparently there are 5 such places in the world.
(switzerland,israel,usa,brazil and honkers.)
apparently,like a car every month a grease and oil is required with newborn lambs blood injections, so his intinerary reflects said requirements
as you were.
Rua whats this with Fairfax digital?
What does News corp own..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_News_Corporation
BB
Have a good night’s sleep and re-read John Pilger’s speech.
Are the media throwing mobile phones onto the first vessel containing “Captain Bram” and “alex”? It seems like a much jucier story than the OV – people smugglers force ship to turn towards Indonesia when their escape boat fails to turn up because they are obviously more afraid of Australia’s new people smuggling laws than they are of being stuck on a boat with a couple hundred very disappointed paying customers. Could be a movie in that.
[What does News corp own..]
And they did own Festival/Mushroom records until 2005 when it went bankrupt, and it i sold the lot off to Warner Music, who have this shameful attitude in not reissuing their Back Catalogue.
A history of the label is here.
http://www.milesago.com/Industry/festival.htm
Re Bolts acolytes on his blog,having read a bit on Bolts blog when bored or just wondering how stupid he can get.
I often think a lot of his supporters would have made very good concentration camp guards,and Bolt a very good untersturmbanfurer,telling them what to do.
Most of the ones that post on Bolts Blog can also be found on Ackermans blog saying much the same thing.
I get the Australian because it helps to know your enemy,and I don’t have any time for the West though on Sat the ads are good,Murdock is an American who employs a bunch of morons on FAUX NEWs.
I should think if I went to the US and started criticizing their President I would be told where to go,but here we just kiss his arse,some of the early comments on Perth now sounded like PR people,but trying to get stuff on there critical of Murdock and NEWs is nigh impossible.
I also have Fox but I have that for my Rugby League, living in WA you just get crap called AFL shoved down your throat 24/7, I think its because most but not all in WA are either extremely stupid(read Perth Now) or very dumb(also read Perth now or listen to Howard Sattler,or any talkback host on 6PR) or both.
I am WA born and had Aussie Rules through my school years so I,m not from NSW or QLD.
Dammit! I had one last peek at the Sunday Tele site after brushing my teeth and saying my prayers, and there was Milne.
He starts out almost sane. He adverts to the posibility that Newspoll was a rogue. Even mentions Morgan, but only to dismiss it. Newspoll is the “benchmark” because… it is the benchmark. No further explanation necessary.
In other words, whatever Newspoll says sets the agenda for the week to follow. Right or wrong, that’s it. Which of course only adds fuel to my “Newspoll was nobbled” theory: Milne is telling his Sunday readers (not political tragics, usually ill-informed and casual about reading much beyond the headlines) that Newspoll is all they need to know if they want the facts on what their fellow members of the public are thinking. Newspoll is God.
He then goes on to discount the “outlier” theory and writes as if God has actually spoken, with Milne His prophet. His explanation for the media blitz by Rudd? Rudd’s private polling is saying the same thing as Newspoll… always Newspoll. It’s never wrong.
So Rudd is toast and Turnbull’s brilliant plan is? Say nothing or, rather, say, “We’re not the government.” That this is entirely un-illuminating to the public Milne is preaching to is dismissed as irrelevant. The point is, according to the Dapper Dwarf, that it’s brilliant politics. A clever move in the perpetual game of thrust, counter-thrust and shadow boxing. Don’t worry, readers, that Turnbull and Milne are espousing the virtues of having no policy at all, in fact are bragging about it, it’s clever politics and that’s what you need to realise. It’s clever politics that will win the next election, not anything as lumpy as policies, or ideas.
Implicit in this theory is that the Liberals are not actually very far behind Rudd. Putting aside the fact that 52-48 is an election-winning lead for Labor, and that Turnbull languishes in the political sump on 19%, Milne reckons that 52-48 is as good as neck and neck. It’s one of Milne’s pet fantasies: the Libs aren’t a spent force, with anyone of any talent now working for Rudd. Their leadership isn’t inept and divided. Their policies aren’t pure vapourware (and that’s when they even admit to having one). No, they’re a strong, resilient force of nature, ready and waiting in exile to return and form another government, bums wiped, playlunch packed and ready to rule. All the public need them to do is shut up and wait for Rudd to implode and then all will be revealed in its true glory. The public, too, is just champing at the bit to get rid of the toxic bore, Rudd, and elect a real party back into power. One that knows how to keep its mouth shut.
All it takes is a bit of cleverness and tight lips from Turnbull and the game’s up for Labor. Too easy, mate.
And yes, for those keeping count, The Small One tells us again that the “honeymoon is over.”
Complete tosser, but there you are. Now please tell me again that there’s not something dodgy about that last Newspoll. After all, it’s the benchmark. That’s all you want to know. Glen says so. If you’re searching for something to think, just read Glen and he’ll set you right. Now back to your Sunday brunch. Milnesy has spoken.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/turnbulls-cunning-plan-of-inaction/story-e6frezz0-1225795310238
Just got home from a great wedding and was suprised no one has mentioned this:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26320351-2,00.html
From what I can gather, that crazy old white man at the end of your street is complaining about the ethnics playing soccer near his prized roses.
Reading Milne to madness leads. Rudd gave him an enormous slap across the face and put him back in his tiny place at the bottom of the cesspit.
As the Piping Shrike noted the Coalition were not silent at all and came out with various bits of contradictory stuff.
Whatever the numbers of the next Newspoll the current one is a rogue. And it will have to be compared to a simultaneous Nielsen.
[Mr Howard revealed that, unlike his former colleagues Mr Costello and Brendan Nelson, he had not received and would not accept a job from Mr Rudd.
“I am very content with the freedom I have,” he said.]
between 2-3pm daily,and when hyacinth is off at the ladies auxillary
Oh joy,oh happy days
The reason the Turnbull and the Rupertbots got nothing out of it was the they were not putting up any coherent alternative and of course it was just a bunch of 78 rescued at sea in an Indonesia port. A long bow on which to try and draw fear and loathing. Oh and not a Muslim on the boat to dog-whistle.
Maybe they did pick up a point or two just from the persistent noise they made or from some nervous red-neck soft Labor voters, but what is lost may not be kept whilst Turnbull and Co are a marauding rabble.
However if this concerted and coordinated attack by the Liberals and right wing media mates fail they may have made sure that Rudd does achieve record breaking numbers at the next election. They would have fired ever bullet in their gun long before the election.
What are they going to run on, what dog-whistle have they left themselves? They have tried synchronised set up with the Ute-gate scam, but Rudd handled that like a pro and turned a negative into a huge positive and destroyed Turnbull in the process. They tried the invention about hair driers or Rudd’s short temper (big deal).
I guess the coalition probably have zero issues on which they lead, have a leader with a massive negative support level, have performed like a rabble for two years, have no policies and anyway labor leads all issues.
The only thing they have left is to close their eyes and swing wildly hoping for a lucky hit. They have the gotchas, and no doubt there will be one more attempt at a set up.
The right wing media will have to be careful, if they go too hard it will be obvious and negate any effect. Rudd is baiting them now, he wants to out them publically as being anti-Labor and anti-Rudd, long before the election.