Morgan: 61-39

Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.

Other news:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.

• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.

• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  2. [Mr Turnbull was speaking at the Victorian Liberal party’s state council on Saturday where about 300 delegates gave him a standing ovation for a speech aimed at delivering a scathing indictment of the prime minister’s leadership.]

    Crikey! After reading what he said at the State Council Meeting, if I was there, I wouldn’t even think it worth taking my hands out of my pockets for!
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbull-slams-vain-rudd-government-20091107-i2os.html

  3. [A PM shouldn’t just do what’s popular, which is what’s being advocated on here.]
    The strawman argument. You still haven’t read what was said.

  5. [vera
    Posted Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 4:50 pm | Permalink

    Figures from the National Tidal Centre show sea levels along Western Australia’s coast are rising at a rate double that of the world average.

    HEAD FOR THE HILLS FRANK!!!]

    I am already in the hills 🙂

  6. [BTW – is Ruawake OK. He’s been quiet lately. Hope you doing Ok Rua.]\

    Thanks BH

    I am fine. Just been putting a Phenom II quad core in my Win 7 box. Plus a second 9600GT connected by SLI.

    Now I can play Risen on my 24″ monitor and have the intertubes running on the 19″ at the same time. 🙂

  7. BB@519:

    [Oh fer Chrissake, Don. The Sri Lankans have already taken effective control of the ship, in that their actions determine where it goes, or at least that is the attempt so far. Once in australian waters, by simply maintaining their insistence on the ship coming to an Australian port, they have committed a second crime (or re-committed it, if you like), this time under Australian jurisdiction. Asking them the question once in Australian waters would be giving them on last chance to give it up.]

    I agree with you, they have committed a crime, and could be encouraged to commit another by your method.

    [Put them in jail, like any other hijackers and (in at least one case) people smugglers. They can have their refugee status examined once they’re in the clink for all I care.]

    And you think that will be the end of it?

    They reach the end of their jail terms. Where do they go then?

    [This action by them cannot stand. It would make a mockery of our system of border protection, a mockery of our government, and would be politically crazy.]

    Couldn’t agree more. FWIW, they don’t have any sympathy from me either, and I’ve been often accused of being a bleeding heart leftie. They have abused the Australian Government’s hospitality and good will.

    [What I am suggesting is one possible way that Rudd would have of keeping the public happy that this kind of thing – the hijacking – will be stopped cold and won’t be tolerated. To just let them in, all peace and sunshine, after what they have done, is wrong.]

    I think by this time that most Australians would agree with you.

    The question then becomes, what do you do with them after throwing them in jail, and then they reach the end of their time?

    Do you, like the first convicts, let them in as normal citizens? If they can be proved to be Sri Lankans, I wonder if you could convince the Sri Lankans to take them back, or do you take them to the Sri Lankan coast, dump them over the side at the point of a gun, and tell them to swim?

    You haven’t thought it through.

  8. [You haven’t thought it through.]

    Oh you mean when they get out after 15 years for good behaviour?

    Deport them. Like we do with all criminal aliens.

  9. BB – How can they be hijackers when they could easily be removed if the government wanted them gorn? It’s not as though they’re forcibly holding the boat. We are just not forcing them off. If I get onto a boat and refuse to get off am I a hijacker?

  10. So Meg Lees joins the Greens, ho hum.

    Does this mean the Greens are moving to the centre of politics? Given Meg complained about the Dems moving too far left.

    Or will she be another Wilkie?

  11. GB@559:

    You are quite right, but I wonder what would be the effect of the crew forcing them off the boat at gun or bayonet point?

    What effect that would have on our relationship with Indonesia?

    And what would be the effect on the Oz population if appropriate photos were obtained, as seems likely from the gaggle of journalists at the wharf?

    And would such photos turn out to be a plus for Rudd – the firm side of firm and humane?

    👿

  12. [BB – How can they be hijackers when they could easily be removed if the government wanted them gorn? It’s not as though they’re forcibly holding the boat.]

    The Indonesians have made it clear that they will not be taken off the boat by force. “Force” is a relative thing. There are 78 Sri Lankans refusing to budge. I don’t think the crew is big enough to overcome them, or that desperate that they would fight them off the ship. In this situation, they are using force.

    Sure the government could force them off, but they themselves would need to employ force to do so (as it stands at the moment, anyway). Hijackers don’t have to be brandishing knives and pistols to be using force. They just have to have more force than the crew which, in the Sri Lankans’ case, they do.

    I don’t think Rudd would relish the idea of sending in the troops to get rid of them. He’ll try to negotiate them off the ship. If that fails in the next few days he should bring them here where our legal system can deal with them in a public court with set and fair procedures.

    Whichever solution he finds to the problem, these guys are toast.

  14. 561 – My point Don was that it is not a hijacking. Therefore, BB’s plan would not work.
    To answer your questions –
    Given that it seems that “Alex” is of unsavioury character, to say the least, I really don’t see the majority of the Australian population being against a forced removal. I also don’t see the Indonesions objecting to such behaviour either. Why would they?
    Having said that I don’t think there will be a forced removal for most of them. Alex maybe a different story though.

  15. [I am fine. Just been putting a Phenom II quad core in my Win 7 box. Plus a second 9600GT connected by SLI.]

    Glad to hear it Rua – but you’ve just blinded me with technophobic stuff there. All I know is that a bloke will deliver a box to me. I plug it in, press that round button thing and it will light up like a Christmas tree with pollbludgers all over it. lol. IT ignorance is my second name.

    Turnbull seems to be revelling in his 19% bit of fame – out and about at conferences, on the telly about everything and writing even more in the papers. While Mr 63% is just hanging around being vain!!

  16. GB, missed your last question:

    [If I get onto a boat and refuse to get off am I a hijacker?]

    I wouldn’t think so, except if you were demanding that the boat takes you to your destination of choice, and you could force the crew to do so by threats or direct violence. Then you would be a hijacker.

  17. From our favourite Marsupial 🙂

    [Pollytics

    I’ve been told that Newspoll is in the field again at the moment, so expect a new one this week with questions about asylum seekers as well2 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  18. BB – They are not holding the boat by threatening to harm the crew as far as I know. At no stage has that been mentioned. Nor are the the asylum seekers armed are they? I suspect the crew would be to some extent. Besides, how big a force do you think it would take?
    Whether or not though such an action should or shouldn’t take place is a red herring really in the context of determining whether this is a hijack or not. That the government doesn’t want to use force and the reasons for it is neither here nor there.

  20. [i bet Cheryl Kernot could also help]

    Finns – she is too busy bagging Labor every chance she gets. That little dalliance turned out badly for all, I think (Dems/Labor/Kernot).

  21. TP – and right on cue, the SunKing has spouted forth for the weekend polling. The agenda is in place and will play out as BB has said.

  22. I hate to say it but the latest boat stuff is not biting in the general public because the Sri Lankans are not of a demonised religion.

    The Howard dog whistle worked because of anti followers of allah sentiment.

    Its hard to demonise a country we play cricket against. Oh how the mad right of the Libs would pray for a boat load from Iran. 🙁

  23. [They are not holding the boat by threatening to harm the crew as far as I know. ]

    They are indeed. They are threatening violence – to the death if necessary – if the crew tries to evict them. When you hijack a vessel or plane you usually don’t continually beat up the crew, just for fun. You only use violence when they try to dispute your authority.

    In this case they gained entry to the ship by way of being rescued. At that time they probably had not hatched the plan to hijack the ship. When it became apparent the ship was headed back to Indonesia was when the hijack plan was put into effect. You don’t have to board a ship or vessel intending to hijack it. As long as you carry out the hijack, that’s enough.

    Further, most hijackers don’t use force to board the ship or vessel, or indeed at any stage of the hijacking, unless (by their own definition) they have to use force. The fact that there hasn’t been a punch up already is neither here nor there. It is quite usual for hijacks to go this way until things get nasty. It’s the threat of violence that makes this a hijack.

  26. BB

    If they have hijacked the ship, they have committed a serious crime for which there are international laws to punish them.

    Are you saying Rudd is allowing international criminals to go free?

  28. Andrew bolt has been furiously adding more criticism and heaps of links to his blog and is really giving his cheer squad something to work with now!

    He even has included a Graph in support of something or other which looks to me like it has a steadily rising trend line, probably measuring Bolter’s rising blood pressure and temperature!

    He probably got a call from “the Boss” to release the Exocet Missiles and train them directly on Kevin Rudd!

    I bet the comments are heating up now too in tandem! 😉

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/or_up_to_your_decayed_ankles_in_100_years/P20/

  30. You beauty!

    [Climate Change Minister Penny Wong has confirmed the Government could not accept all of the Coalition’s proposed amendments due to budgetary constraints.]

    scorpio

    He loves that graph. It looks like global warming to me but he insists on using it.

  32. [Are you saying Rudd is allowing international criminals to go free?]

    I haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about, as just a couple of posts above I wrote:

    [I don’t think Rudd would relish the idea of sending in the troops to get rid of them. He’ll try to negotiate them off the ship. If that fails in the next few days he should bring them here where our legal system can deal with them in a public court with set and fair procedures.]

    … and have been arguing all afternoon that, if they won’t disembark in Indonesia, Rudd should get them back to Australia where they can be dealt with appropriately and accused formally under Australian law as hijackers.

    You should read all the appropriate posts before you strart out with the “killer questions” Diogenes.

  34. [scorpio

    He loves that graph. It looks like global warming to me but he insists on using it.]

    Dio, maybe he looks at it upside down and every time he does, he has to head to the cupboard to get himself a jumper! 😉

  36. Dio@580:

    [He loves that graph. It looks like global warming to me but he insists on using it.]

    Indeed. Whack a line of best fit on it, even without Poss’s help, and the trend is obvious.

    What people like Bolt don’t do is put in the (non-satellite, but correlateable) data for the previous century, which points up the trend even more markedly.

  37. Uncle Rupert having a shot at Rudd got a run on the National 9 News!

    Most probably, it will get shown on all of them including their ABC!

  39. One thing Diog and I can agree on (alas, increasingly rare these days) is that Bolt is a goose.

    As Diog relates, his “The Earth is cooling, not warming” graph actually shows it is warming. Further, he admits to cherry-picking his numbers.

    [The trend taken from 2000 is of warming – but if you start from 2001, the trend is down. ]

    And if you go back to 1981, the trend is definitely warming, you goose.

    Lastly, Bolt thinks that an iceberg appearing off Macquarie Island is evidence of cooling. The reason the bloody berg is there is because it broke off the ice pack because of warming and has drifted north on ocean currents.

    Sheesh, that man’s a fool. And he also sounds very cwanky that the nasty Mr. Rudd has attacked his climate denialism. Calling the measured Rudd “hysterical” because he got a bit shirky with the climate white anters just shows up how hysterical Bolt is himself. Look at the post. It’s a dog’s breakfast of “…. and another thing”s.

  41. [ Bushfire Bill
    Posted Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    … and have been arguing all afternoon that, if they won’t disembark in Indonesia, Rudd should get them back to Australia where they can be dealt with appropriately and accused formally under Australian law as hijackers.]

    What; like with real judges who can throw nonsense case out on their ear. Not a chance.

  42. Reverentially calling Rupert “Mr. Murdoch” the ABC TV News reporter tells us that he can ignore ordinary mortals, but Rudd has to take notice of Rupert Murdoch.

    Qu’elle toole.

  43. [David Speers interviewing Rupert Murdoch on Skynews – spot the oxymoron.]

    Spot the expressions on Murdoch’s face – calculating, deliberate hesitation and allround ‘get Rudd’.

    He doesn’t think there needs to be extra corporate or banking regulation so in Murdoch’s estimation Obama, Brown and Rudd have to go. We just sit and watch his underlings do his bidding.

    Don – TP had a good response there too.

  44. Even with my faulty eyesight, what Bolter said here doesn’t gell with that graph and if one goes from 1999 and even 2000, there is still a warming trend which is on the graph as a +0.28 deg. C!

    Bolter’s cheer squad sure are displaying problems of mental comprehension not to see this!

    Yeah, don’t bother to answer that!!!

    [The latest satellite measurements of global temperature in October are in, showing the planet still hasn’t resumed the warming that stopped in 2001.

    Lucia of The Blackboard plots the trends of the main temperature measurements. The trend taken from 2000 is of warming – but if you start from 2001, the trend is down. ]
    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/or_up_to_your_decayed_ankles_in_100_years/P20/

  45. [What; like with real judges who can throw nonsense case out on their ear. Not a chance.]

    We’ll see about that, Fred. Taking over a ship by force and then forcing it to sail to a destination of preference, costing its charterers hundreds of thousands of dollars, ruining any official mission it was on, causing acute political embarrassment to our government, and cruelling the ground for future asylum seekers is a very serious matter. Add into that their original rescue on compassionate grounds and you have a pretty compelling set of circumstances for throwing the book at them if they ever get here.

    If I was them I’d be begging to be let off in Indonesia by now.

  46. [Calling the measured Rudd “hysterical” because he got a bit shirky with the climate white anters just shows up how hysterical Bolt is himself.]

    BB, it’s a pity Bolter’s not on Insiders tomorrow morning. It would be hilarious watching Cassidy trying to rein him in.

    Bolter would be frothing at the mouth and shaking with rage! Priceless!!!

  48. Poss says that Newspoll is out doing another survey this weekend.

    So, with all the publicity about Labor getting a bad poll this week, does that give others the thought they should join in the downgrading? Is there manipulation?

    Why not let things settle down for another 2 weeks and then do it as usual. Seems a trifle skewed to me.

  50. [Poss says that Newspoll is out doing another survey this weekend. ]

    Probably ringing the same numbers as last week hoping to repeat the numbers they got Tuesday, 52/48! 😉

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