The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face survey finds Labor maintaining the remarkable upward trend it has recorded across recent polling: its primary vote is up 2.5 per cent to 52 per cent, the Coalition’s is up 0.5 per cent to 34.5 per cent, while the Greens, Family First and independent/others are all down. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead has edged up from 60-40 to 60.5-39.5. The pattern is further demonstrated by the latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate, which finds Labor’s two-party lead has crept steadily upwards since June, and has now increased to 59.0-41.0 from 58.0-42.0 a month ago. George Megalogenis of The Australian offers an exquisitely simple hypothesis: “the women swing first, then the men”. This was apparently the pattern when the current governments in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia were elected (I suggest One Nation complicated the picture in Queensland and Western Australia), and it gives every appearance of playing out at present federally. However, there is the curious exception of men under 35, many of whom seem to have abandoned Labor since the onset of the financial crisis.
Other news:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Julia Gillard is “working behind the scenes” to save the career of Laurie Ferguson, a fellow member of the “soft Left” faction who backed the Rudd/Gillard coup against Kim Beazley in December 2006. Ferguson has been left high-and-dry by the effective abolition of his western Sydney seat of Reid, the redrawn seat of that name being the effective successor to its abolished neighbour Lowe. However, Ferguson’s efforts to find a new home are being resisted by the “hard Left” faction of Anthony Albanese. Coorey reports Ferguson believes he has the numbers to win a local preselection vote in Fowler, to be vacated with the retirement of Julia Irwin, but it seems at least as likely that this and other contentious seats will be filled by the decree of Kevin Rudd and the panel of factional leaders which was empowered to make final determinations through a recent change to the party constitution. VexNews intimates that if denied, Ferguson might look at “obtaining support for a potentially expensive and spectacular legal challenge”.
• Paul Sheehan of the Sydney Morning Herald had an interesting piece last week on the Liberal preselection for Cook ahead of the last federal election, which saw the dumping of the initially victorious Michael Towke and his eventual substitution with Scott Morrison. Towke’s Right faction lost the PR battle at the time (as my own electorate profile attests), but as Sheehan tells it, talk that Towke had fudged his CV had little or no foundation in fact. Rather, he was a victim of “a view among some senior Liberals” – evidently including John Howard – that “a Lebanese Australian could not win Cook in a tight election”. It will be recalled that the expanse of southern Sydney covered by the electorate includes Cronulla. Sheehan also relates that the Daily Telegraph’s reporting of Towke’s preselection led to a defamation action which was settled out-of-court with a payment of $50,000.
• Peter Caton of the Tweed Daily News reports the Nationals are struggling to find candidates to run against Labor incumbents Justine Elliot, in the one-time party stronghold of Richmond, and Janelle Saffin, in its marginal neighbour Page. The only known candidate for the latter is Kevin Hogan, who according to The Northern Star “runs his own finance business from his Clunes cattle farm”.
• Pat Farmer, the Liberal member for Macarthur, has as expected been soundly defeated for preselection by Russell Matheson, a police sergeant and former mayor of Campbelltown. The margin was 22 votes to nine.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports the Victorian ALP will follow the footsteps of the NSW Nationals by choosing a state election candidate through a US-style primary. Whereas the Nationals are still to decide which seat in which to conduct their experiment, Labor has earmarked the Liberal-held marginal of Kilsyth. The decision stems from a cross-factional committee report which also recommends reinvigorating the party organisation by slashing membership fees.
• VexNews reports that Louise Staley, who has previously sought federal preselection for Wannon and Menzies, is now hoping for a state berth in the country seat of Ripon, which Labor’s Joe Helper holds on a margin of 4.4 per cent. Staley is a former state party vice-president and Institute of Public Affairs agriculture policy expert. Also said to have nominated are “John van Beveren, a local winery owner and education professor and Vic Dunn, the local inspector at Maryborough”.
• The Australian Review of Public Affairs has published my review article on Australia: The State of Democracy, written by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin through the auspices of the Democratic Audit of Australia and published by The Federation Press.
Plenty happening in Tasmania:
• Labor’s troubled first-term member for Bass, Jodie Campbell, has confirmed she will not contest the next election. Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Senator Helen Polley, has been mentioned as a possible successor, which would see the seat’s factional alignment transfer from Left to Right. The Liberals have preselected Steve Titmus, a former television news reader and PR consultant for Gunns Ltd. The winner will be the seat’s sixth member in less than two decades. UPDATE: The Launceston Examiner reports that the new candidate is likely to be determined by prime ministerial fiat “after the dust settles”, and that there is a second potential candidate in Winnaleah District High School principal Brian Wightman, who is currently pencilled in as one of six candidates for the Bass state election ticket.
• Terry Martin, independent member for the northern Hobart upper house division of Elwick, faces criminal charges which regardless of their merits are politically lethal by nature. Martin was elected as a Labor member in 2004, but was expelled by the party in March 2007 after crossing the floor to vote against the government’s fast-tracking of the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill. He is due to face re-election at the next round of periodical elections in May; a by-election need not be held if the seat is vacated after January 1.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports the Liberals have finalised their state election ticket for Denison, adding “renewable energy lawyer Matthew Groom, businesswoman and former Miss Tasmania Sue Hickey, and high-profile school parents advocate and Glenorchy councillor Jenny Branch” to the already announced Michael Hodgman (the sole incumbent), Elise Archer and Matt Stevenson.
• Tasmanian government legislation for fixed terms has been referred to a committee, scuppering any chance of it being passed in the week remaining before a recess that will last until the election. Premier David Bartlett nonetheless swears that the election will be held on March 20, again locking the psephological community into the headache of simultaneous elections in South Australia and Tasmania.
Elsewhere on the site, note that it’s all happening on the Willagee by-election thread, while things are ticking over more slowly yet still surely on the Bradfield and Higgins threads. Observe also the New South Wales Newspoll post immediately below.
[If there is no change in tonight’s Newspoll, I would think Kevvie’s mood tomorrow will be easily soothed by a couple of stubbies of xxxx at the races!]
Meanwhile this time in 2006 Serfchoices was being introduced into Parliament.
My what difference 2 years can make re the political landscape.
What if we accepted them all as students under the Colombo Plan, educated them as doctors, and sent them out to disadvantaged parts of the world after graduation?
I think that’s a better solution than Dio’s, myself.
[And the ship can go wherever it wants. It hasn’t been hijacked.]
It’s just stuck with a bunch of permanent passengers it would rather do without!! 😉
Diogs,
I picked this.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/bart-cummings-cant-split-melbourne-cup-trio/story-e6frf8wx-1225793613509
Diog, Moi? a bastard? surely not.
Actually I agree with you, this bunch definitely did come from SL and the rescued ones should be brought to Xmas Ramada. Else i am voting the Sex Party in ALL elections.
Glen! I take it you have been busy helping the new MP for Higgins out! how are the voters generally reacting to the issues of the day
GG, which one is the Russian horse in tomorrow Cup. I will back it as you cant let the comrades down.
[The most likely scenario is that they came from SL, just from looking at a map.]
You know, Diogs, even flatworms can learn from their mistakes. But not you.
Gee, they grow up quick here!
[Girl, 11, gives birth ‘to new toy’ on wedding day]
[AN 11-year-old girl has become a mother after going into labour during her wedding to her teenage boyfriend.
Kordeza Zhelyazkova was still wearing her wedding dress and tiara when she arrived at hospital and gave birth to little Violeta.
The schoolgirl, of Sliven, Bulgaria, fell pregnant within just two weeks of her 11th birthday.
She gave birth last week with 19-year-old husband Jeliazko Dimitrov at her side,
“I’m not going to play with toys any more – I have a new toy now,” Kordeza told Britain’s News of the World newspaper. ]
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26292563-952,00.html
Finns,
Mourilyan is apparently owned by the dictator President of Chechenya. Has a reaonable chance. Melbourne Cup to cause an International iciden?
For those who saw Annabel Crabb’s “University of Eastbumcrack” jibe at Andrew Bolt, some enterprising people have turned it in to an earner for a charity nominated by Crabb.
http://292360.spreadshirt.com/
The rest of this yarn is even better reading! Highly recommended! 😉
GG # 1010 – the President Of Chechenya has sold his share in the last week.
So Milne receives K$250PA for writing that crap. What a waste of money.
Mexican I think she’ll do fine but who knows what the final results will be.
If places like Higgins ever fell the Libs would seriously be in trouble. Thankfully i dont see that happening.
Kelly for a front bench position or at the very least parlisec
Dio – if the MV OV can go anywhere it likes, then how about it sets sail for Sri Lanka or the nearest port to Tamil Nadu.
[And the ship can go wherever it wants. It hasn’t been hijacked.]
If the OV sets sail for SL in the next week (god I’d love to see that) the passengers will certainly rise to the occasion.
Squiggle,
Thanks. Had not seen that update.
Cheers.
Frank #1001
I agree with that sentiment.
I think also this time last year K Rudd backed a winner on the cup, or was it the year before?
[If places like Higgins ever fell the Libs would seriously be in trouble.]
Glen, If that were to happen there’d be no Liberal Party just a bunch of right wing nut jobs looking for a new home.
GG
I picked Mourilyan because at first glance (without my specs) I thought it was Muralitharan 🙂 topical tip I thought.
Squiggle,
My recollection is the Ruddster nominated a nag that was scratched and then plumped for Efficient which paid $30 the win.
Psephos
The line from SL to Xmas Island did go through Indonesian search-and-rescue territory. I just got unlucky. I haven’t forgiven them for it either. They Greched me.
scorpio
They’re like squatters who don’t want to leave their digs.
GG
My contact with the Cummings family told me Roman Emperor. Hadrian has always been one of my heroes so I’m jumping off Alcopop.
Diogs,
Like all PBers I am never surprised at any equivocation on your part.
I only point out that you have aligned with my tip, and that always ends in tears.
[They’re like squatters who don’t want to leave their digs. ]
Dio, that’s not quite right. They want to assist Kevin Rudd in his quest to increase the population to 35m by 2050! 😉
[My contact with the Cummings family told me Roman Emperor.]
What? Bart’s second cousin in-law, twice removed! 😉
Ouch!
[“The story of Combet’s private life was widely known, especially after VEXNEWS reported on it. It clearly didn’t need anyone in the Coalition to push it, it just needed the increasingly isolated Glenn Milne clicking on his VEXNEWS bookmark or interacting with his main confidential source these days, Google.”]
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7108/fraud-glenn-milne-counterfeits-exclusive-in-the-spirit-of-north-korea/
[or interacting with his main confidential source these days, Google.”]
I’m fairly sure that Glen uses Bing!
[Because it’s bad politically and because it’s illegal under Indonesian law (their Foreign Minister said that).]
Other law experts have said it isn’t illegal
[If what the refugees were doing is illegal, the Australians could get the Indonesians to arrest them.]
Er no, the SLs are on an Australian ship. It may also be illegal for the Indonesians to board it and remove people so they won’t. That doesn’t make the actions of the SLs not illegal.
[And the ship can go wherever it wants. It hasn’t been hijacked.]
Whether it has been ‘hijacked’ is clearly a matter of debate, but it certainly isn’t free to ‘go wherever it wants’ given the threats of self harm by the SLs
[Whether it has been ‘hijacked’ is clearly a matter of debate, but it certainly isn’t free to ‘go wherever it wants’ given the threats of self harm by the SLs]
Is it illegal for them to kill themselves? Would it be illegal to prevent it?
[Bushfire Bill
Posted Monday, November 2, 2009 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
…
I take it that’s the sum total of your reply to my points, Fred.]
Yep; I’ve read your posts, as I read all your posts, your a great writer. On this one however I believe your beyond rational argument, your humor and ability to paint wonderful word pictures seems to have abandoned you as you line up behind Glen.
It may be a shock to you BB, but I don’t expect people fighting for a future to say please and thankyou, and quite frankly I think anyone who does has lost their grip on reality.
Actually, I am being a bit unfair on Glen, he hasn’t created post trying to label a bunch of wretched souls that hove no weapons hijackers.
Mr Squiggle
[Dio – if the MV OV can go anywhere it likes, then how about it sets sail for Sri Lanka or the nearest port to Tamil Nadu.]
The latter is the Diogenes Solution. I’m waiting for the cheque from Kevin to spend on the Cup tomorrow.
Dario
I’ll stick with the Foreign Minister. He said they would need to go into international waters where they would be free to force them off. I imagine that Rudd might be asking whether the Indonesians could elect to ignore that law if push comes to shove.
If the refugees, for example, murdered an Australian they could be arrested by the Indonesian police as long as the Australians allowed them onto the boat.
[I think also this time last year K Rudd backed a winner on the cup, or was it the year before?]
It was 2007:
[WHEN Kevin Rudd’s Melbourne Cup pick Maybe Better was scratched yesterday, John Howard generously said the Labor leader should continue his “me-tooism” and back Mahler, the prime ministerial favourite.
But Rudd, who hitherto had displayed an outstanding ignorance of horse flesh, ignored Howard’s turf talk and, campaigning in northern NSW, put $10 on Efficient’s nose at Ballina RSL. Lightning struck twice too, because Rudd chose Efficient after drawing the horse in an office sweep.]
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/rudds-efficient-gains/2007/11/06/1194329223583.html
[The line from SL to Xmas Island did go through Indonesian search-and-rescue territory. I just got unlucky. I haven’t forgiven them for it either. They Greched me.]
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
[if the MV OV can go anywhere it likes, then how about it sets sail for Sri Lanka or the nearest port to Tamil Nadu.]
It’s not politically feasable to take them to SL, where an unpleasant fate would await them. But taking them to TN is certainly an acceptable solution. I’m sure KR is calling in a few favours in ND even as we speak. There are 100,000 SLTs in TN already, so a few more won’t bust the budget. (Note cool use of acronyms.)
[That may well be true but it doesn’t make them hijackers.]
Put it this way, Diog old bean… if it was a plane they were on, at any airport, demanding what they are demanding, threatening to die rather than get off the aircraft, they’d be shot down by the SAS or equivalent after it became clear negotiations had broken down.
Rudd will never sanction that kind of force, I’m sure of that, but this is how serious the situation would be if on an aircraft at a civil airport. They have convinced themselves that if they stick it out they will win through. I’m pretty confident that our government has other plans for them, short of major violence, but a long way from resettling them here, too.
The Indonesians are also cruelling the ground by reneging on their responsibilities to shipwreck survivors. The Indonesian Foreigh Minister said tonight there should be an “Australian Solution” as opposed to an “Indonesian Solution”: they are sick of refugees crowding into their country too, en route to Australia. I suppose they see Rudd’s repeal of Howard’s “Pacific Solution” as fuel to the fire, putting the onus on them to house refugees until they arrange passage to Australia. It is a very complex situation, which will be sorted out when one or other of the parties – Australia, Indonesia or the refugees – gives way. As I see it, the refugees are in the wrong here. They have taken over a ship and demanded it take them to their preferred destination or else violence will ensue: they have hijacked it.
At one end of the argument they are lucky to be still alive. Many other countries would just go in and shoot them. They are lucky that Australia is not that kind of country, nor is our government that kind of government. Indonesia seems disinterested.
At the other end of the argument they are occupying a ship by force of numbers (hijacking it) and we can’t allow them to succeed. It would open up a whole can of worms that doesn’t need to be opened. They have shat in their own nests, unfortunately, and they must take the consequences: no free ride to Oz.
Peter Martin’s review of MYEFO.
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/out-of-the-woods-but-economy-is-still-bumpy-20091102-ht15.html
[I’ll stick with the Foreign Minister. He said they would need to go into international waters where they would be free to force them off.]
Well of course you would, because it suits your argument
[If the refugees, for example, murdered an Australian they could be arrested by the Indonesian police as long as the Australians allowed them onto the boat.]
They could also be arrested by the Customs officers on board the ship and tried under Australian law in Australia
BB
I agree with almost all of that but just because they would need to be dragged off doesn’t make them hijackers. If they threatened the crew with violence, which they haven’t, it would be hijacking.
Psephos
If Rudd takes then to TN, I must win something.
And I believe the full quote is;
[“There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” —President George W. Bush, Nashville, Tenn., Sept. 17, 2002]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
How I miss that man. 😥
[ I’ll stick with the Foreign Minister. He said they would need to go into international waters where they would be free to force them off.
Well of course you would, because it suits your argument]
If push comes to shove, he’ll be the one making the decision, unless the military get involved and they have said it would be “torture” to force them off.
“Kelly for a front bench position or at the very least parlisec”
Glen,
Why? What qualities does this lass have that would have her by-pass all the accepted parliamentary stepping stones and go straight to the top of the Liberal totem pole, or very close to it? That girl, as Jet would say, MIGHT be a genius, but surely wouldn’t immediate promotion suggest that there is no talent in the current Liberal pool and that nobody without a shadow gig is up to the task? Would it tell us punters that the Libs are reduced to offering top jobs to total strangers (strangers to us, that is, not the party).
Promote her by all means, Glen, but only when she is ready. Would the Melbourne Demons put someone staright into the top grade and also into the leadership group straight off the street? On second thoughts, don’t answer that one…
[If push comes to shove, he’ll be the one making the decision, unless the military get involved and they have said it would be “torture” to force them off.]
It wouldn’t be torture lol. Seriously, you have to take most of what all these locals with nfi throw out there with a grain of salt. Most of it is for local audiences.
[If they threatened the crew with violence, which they haven’t, it would be hijacking.]
I don’t know what vowing to die resisting being thrown off the ship is, but it sounds like threatening violence to me.
Let’s see if they get more specific as time goes by.
First it’s Cataracts, now it’s Cortisone Injections.
[Sufferers of arthritis will no longer have their pain-relief injections specifically covered by Medicare.
The Federal Government says the injections can be done by a GP during a standard consultation, so it has abolished the rebate, in a move it says will save $25 million over four years.
But specialists say the procedure is not just a simple jab and requires particular expertise.
It is a crippling yet quiet disease that affects more than a million Australians, particularly the elderly and the very young.
It does not yet have a cure.
Louise Williams’ two-year-old son Taylan has been diagnosed with the condition.
“To see a two-year-old limping and weeping during the night in his sleep because of the pain that can be a side effect of this condition,” she said.
“We kept getting misdiagnosed and finally had some answers as to why he was limping.”
Ms Williams says Taylan now requires a cortisone injection to keep the swelling and pain under control.
“It’s changed his quality of life, he is a different child. If this hadn’t have been available to us to be bulk-billed and have that non-gap, more so a single parent, it would have made it so much more difficult for us to function,” she said.
But now the $20 rebate for a cortisone injection is no longer specifically covered by Medicare.
The Federal Government says the injections can be done by a GP during a routine consultation.
Health Minister Nicola Roxon was unavailable to speak with PM, but a ministerial spokeswoman says cutting the item will save the taxpayer $25 million over four years.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/02/2731273.htm?section=justin
Just watching 4-Corners. I’m pretty disgusted with the community’s reaction to this guy. He’s done bad things, apparently (although I haven’t seenthe specifics), but he’s done his time. He looks destroyed, which some may welcome, but the way the media has beaten this up (as depicted on 4-corners film clips) is disgusting.
[Would the Melbourne Demons put someone staright into the top grade and also into the leadership group straight off the street? On second thoughts, don’t answer that one…]
That’s just being mean!! You’re hiting Glen where it really hurts there Roy!
Frank
That’s not a very smart decision by Roxon. To save $6M a year is insignificant and it’s going to upset a lot of patients with chronic diseases and pain.
There are much smarter things for her to go after than that.
Grog,
I thought Glen was having a dose of the sensibles and talking about Mike Kelly.
If anyone thinks this discussion here re asylum seekers is a little willing, have a read of this:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/did_rudds_compassion_kill_them/#commentsmore
Yeah, it does seem like an odd choice…
The new MP for Higgins may be suitable for a frontbench position! i mean what talent do the likes of Helen Coonan bring.