Morgan: 59.5-40.5

The latest Roy Morgan survey (two fortnights of face-to-face polling with a sample of 1129) has Labor’s two-party lead down from 62-38 to 59.5-40.5. Labor’s primary vote is down half a point to 51 per cent, the Coalition are up a solid three to 35.5 per cent and the Greens are down two to 7.5 per cent.

Geoff Chambers of The Gold Coast Bulletin reports “senior party figures” have told Julie Bishop to withdraw her apparent endorsement for Minna Knight in tomorrow’s Liberal National Party preselection for McPherson, where Peter Dutton faces the prospect of an embarrassing failure in his bid to seek refuge from endangered Dickson. Bishop has told the paper her reference for Knight was “not intended to be used as preselection material”, but she has nonetheless “stopped short of endorsing Mr Dutton”. The report says Knight and rival candidate Karen Andrews have between them “locked in crucial votes from the Currumbin and Burleigh branches”. In a bid to smooth the path for Dutton, Knight has reportedly been offered a free run in the new neighbouring seat of Wright, while Andrews has been promised a Senate seat.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports last month’s assault charge against the partner of Bass MP Jodie Campbell halted a “gathering momentum” that would have cost her preselection. Campbell reportedly remains “under pressure to lift her performance”. Perhaps more importantly, Denholm reports that “while Ms Campbell is from Labor’s Left faction, many in the Right see Bass as their seat”. The preselection ahead of the last election was initially won by the Right-backed Steve Reissig, although this was achieved because state executive backing for Reissig outweighed support for Campbell in the branches. Reissig later withdrew amid rumours of a smear campaign, and a complicated factional deal helped Campbell win the re-match. Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley, has been mentioned as a possible successor.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section suggests Kerry Bartlett, who lost Macquarie to Bob Debus at the federal election, has determined to contest preselection for Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains, after failing to re-nominate for Macquarie. Both Debus and his successor in Blue Mountains, Phil Koperberg, are set to retire, with some talk that Koperberg might do so before the election. Labor is said to have two possible candidates in mind for Macquarie: former netballer Liz Ellis and St Vincent DePaul Society chief executive John Falzon, who apparently shares Debus’s and Koperberg’s links with the Socialist Left faction (of which he “used to be” a member). Also said to be interested is Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle, who was part of the jockeying to succeed Debus ahead of the 2007 election, but is said to lack factional support.

• Further from the above, it is suggested that David Bradbury, who won Lindsay on the third attempt in 2007, is “seeking the numbers to make a move to neighbouring Chifley if government Whip Roger Price decides to retire”. Bradbury is reportedly concerned hostility towards the state government might cost him his seat. He has “even canvassed the idea of a move to Greenway considering it is now a very safe prospect post-redistribution”. Liberal MP Louise Markus is apparently looking good in her bid to move to Macquaire from Greenway, which has a notional Labor margin of 5.6 per cent on the draft redistribution boundaries.

• Late news: Kathleen Maltzahn, whose human rights activism included authorship of a book on the trafficking of women for prostitution in Australia, was announced as Greens candidate for the winnable Victorian state seat of Richmond a month ago. It was also confirmed Adam Bandt, who in 2007 became the party’s first candidate to make the final count at a general federal election, will again run in the federal seat of Melbourne.

Malcolm Mackerras in Crikey predicts a double dissolution election will be held on August 21, 2010, that presumably being the latest date allowable under the provision which states double dissolutions cannot be held later than six months before the expiry of the House of Representatives (UPDATE: Turns out it’s not the last date – not sure why Mackerras picked this one exactly). He also discusses the method that will be used to decide which of the elected Senators will be “long term”, and which will be chosen to face the people at the next half-Senate election. The Constitution leaves this to the Senate to decide, and it was traditionally done on the basis of the order of election. However, a peculiar result in Tasmania in 1951 meant four out of five Liberal Senators came to be deemed “long term”, which eventually prompted the Hawke government to require that the Electoral Commission calculate a hypothetical half-Senate election result for purposes of directing a “fair” outcome. This however remained non-binding, and at the first and so far only opportunity since (the 1987 double dissolution) the Senate chose not to be bound, instead conducting the division in a manner advantageous to the Australian Democrats. Mackerras notes Labor felt “guilty” about its failure to observe its own reform and promised that in future it would support a Senate resolution to give effect to the half-Senate count before the election took place, which Mackerras expects to be put and carried before his August election.

• Also in Crikey, Andrew Crook offers an overview of the two parties’ preselection processes, dealing in turn with Labor and Liberal (minor parties to follow).

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and Nielsen has Labor’s lead at 58.0-42.0.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,012 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. [maybe glens criticism of essentials and morgans 60/40 was a tad premature….]
    What he meant was 60/40 is too low, the real result is probably 62/38.

  2. Just had to send an urgent email and logged on to see Tom’s newspoll result.

    Can I say ‘u bewty’ – Turnbull’s arrogance and crash through tactics have got what they deserve. Feels great for those of us who suffered somewhat through the Howard years.

  3. So is this Newspoll effected by the “Rudd on the World StageTM” effect?

    Do people really think P.M.’s get a bump when they go and hang out with other head’s of government at the U.N. and with the G20?

  4. [Can I say ‘u bewty’ – Turnbull’s arrogance and crash through tactics have got what they deserve. ]
    Hang on a second, isn’t Turnbull RIGHT, that the opposition SHOULD pass the CPRS in November? It’s the climate change deniers that make up a large portion of the backbench (and some of the front bench) who are WRONG.

  5. One has to wonder who wants to go down as the leader at the biggest Liberal Party loss in history at the next election. Why would anyone with any sense want to roll Turnbull with the party’s immediate future so dismal?

  6. Well, Andrew, Abbott is such an appealing person, really, you’d be hard pushed to deny him a chance to lead the nation, wouldn’t you? Lovely chap.

  7. Course we’ll go on arguing, Tomtfab. Whether we can be de-canted into the new “The Stump” site is the question.

  8. ShowsOn – I was thinking about his attitude with Dutton. Trying to tell the locals what they should be doing without ringing around the members personally, is arrogance. Why should they have a scaredy cat from another electorate foisted on them.

  9. [yes birthday boy, where’s our new thread???!!]

    Wait you turn, due to WA smartly rejecting Daylight Savings, it is still only 7.36pm 🙂

  10. [Lovely chap.]

    Yep HSO – he’s every woman’s dreamboat. lol. Can you imagine those cold eyes fighting an election against the smiling Kev. Poor devil.

    Happy birthday William.

  11. andrew, they are of course desparate. Also stupid. Both in terms of depth and breadth. They have got nothing.

  12. Storm coming again here. Will have to miss Ciobo talking to Tony and switch this off as well. Night all. Can get up smiling tomorrow with these polls.

  13. re #938

    Rudd should reject any amendments for the ETS and call a double dissolution election, I’m heartily sick of wishy washy turnbull, and the rubbish holding up legislation in the Senate (Fielding et al…)

  14. Night all from me as well and Musrum I’m just scratching mah head about what the hell you mean about puppies of robust discussion, etc. Wisconsin and so on.

  15. Well this is the natural result of having a leader with no authority, a failure to renew its aging members of Parliament with fresh blood, no policies whatsoever and internal division within the Coalition.

    The results dont surpise me. I only hope it doesnt end up that way on election day.

  16. I am happy to settle for 110 seats in Newspoll against 119 from Essential using AG’s HoR calculator it only leaves Abbott and Bishop a religious dumvirate

  17. [The results dont surpise me. I only hope it doesnt end up that way on election day.]
    Maybe the Liberals need a landslide loss (i.e. Labor wins close to 100 seats) to convince them that filling their back bench with 65+ year olds is a bad idea?

  18. [Trouble is all the young ones will be gone and all the 65+ brigade will still be there.]
    At least then the party will realise it needs to move to the centre on I.R. and climate change.

  19. 977
    It looks like the Victoria libs in 2002 just before the landside election loss to Labor a mess stay are

    58 to 42

  20. Glen 981 what a shame, mind you, you have been on about the deadwood for some time but Lib HQ is not taking any calls

  21. But then a majority of the party will firm its stance and be full of Tuckeys.

    Oh well i guess down the track the shoe will be on the other foot. I’ve just got to accept we wont be back for awhile.

  22. [Oh well i guess down the track the shoe will be on the other foot. I’ve just got to accept we wont be back for awhile.]
    Labor MPs know when to leave, they have the cult of the party, not the cult of their own individual self interest.

  23. Glen, have hope. It took a second defeat in 1977 before the Labor Party fundementally reviewed its platform and structures. Labor has since had more electoral success than at any time in its history.

    It might take a second defeat before the Liberal Party do the same thorough review.

  24. [It took a second defeat in 1977 before the Labor Party fundementally reviewed its platform and structures.]
    What about when the Coalition lost in 1983, can you think of any important party reforms that helped them win in 1996?

    How was the Liberal party different in 1996 compared with 1983?

  25. Yes that is quite right Mr Green.

    That is what I expected after 2007 but alas nothing has changed and we still have no policies or a proper review of the loss. I wish that we could do this without another drubbing. But at least their is precedent for drubbings to really have a Party change its way. So if that happens next year there will be hopefully a sunny side to it.

    I’d say a 55-45 result is on the cards. I dont think it will get anyway near 60/40 next year and if it is well at least it should make the coverage more interesting than only a couple of seats changing hands.

  26. [That is what I expected after 2007 but alas nothing has changed and we still have no policies or a proper review of the loss. ]
    Isn’t there a review of the loss, it’s just been kept secret from everyone other than the national executive?
    [I’d say a 55-45 result is on the cards.]
    Which would translate into one of the biggest defeats ever.

  27. [I dont care for his analysis really if you ask me.]
    I got a leaked version off the internet, he blames the loss on Muhammad Haneef and “those Africans”

  28. [throw in Union bosses just to be sure.]
    Well that part was kind of true, apparently seats with strong Your Rights @ Work campaigns received bigger swings by a few percent compared with seats that didn’t have such campaigns.

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