Morgan: 59.5-40.5

The latest Roy Morgan survey (two fortnights of face-to-face polling with a sample of 1129) has Labor’s two-party lead down from 62-38 to 59.5-40.5. Labor’s primary vote is down half a point to 51 per cent, the Coalition are up a solid three to 35.5 per cent and the Greens are down two to 7.5 per cent.

Geoff Chambers of The Gold Coast Bulletin reports “senior party figures” have told Julie Bishop to withdraw her apparent endorsement for Minna Knight in tomorrow’s Liberal National Party preselection for McPherson, where Peter Dutton faces the prospect of an embarrassing failure in his bid to seek refuge from endangered Dickson. Bishop has told the paper her reference for Knight was “not intended to be used as preselection material”, but she has nonetheless “stopped short of endorsing Mr Dutton”. The report says Knight and rival candidate Karen Andrews have between them “locked in crucial votes from the Currumbin and Burleigh branches”. In a bid to smooth the path for Dutton, Knight has reportedly been offered a free run in the new neighbouring seat of Wright, while Andrews has been promised a Senate seat.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports last month’s assault charge against the partner of Bass MP Jodie Campbell halted a “gathering momentum” that would have cost her preselection. Campbell reportedly remains “under pressure to lift her performance”. Perhaps more importantly, Denholm reports that “while Ms Campbell is from Labor’s Left faction, many in the Right see Bass as their seat”. The preselection ahead of the last election was initially won by the Right-backed Steve Reissig, although this was achieved because state executive backing for Reissig outweighed support for Campbell in the branches. Reissig later withdrew amid rumours of a smear campaign, and a complicated factional deal helped Campbell win the re-match. Geoff Lyons, a staffer to Right faction Senator Helen Polley, has been mentioned as a possible successor.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section suggests Kerry Bartlett, who lost Macquarie to Bob Debus at the federal election, has determined to contest preselection for Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains, after failing to re-nominate for Macquarie. Both Debus and his successor in Blue Mountains, Phil Koperberg, are set to retire, with some talk that Koperberg might do so before the election. Labor is said to have two possible candidates in mind for Macquarie: former netballer Liz Ellis and St Vincent DePaul Society chief executive John Falzon, who apparently shares Debus’s and Koperberg’s links with the Socialist Left faction (of which he “used to be” a member). Also said to be interested is Blue Mountains mayor Adam Searle, who was part of the jockeying to succeed Debus ahead of the 2007 election, but is said to lack factional support.

• Further from the above, it is suggested that David Bradbury, who won Lindsay on the third attempt in 2007, is “seeking the numbers to make a move to neighbouring Chifley if government Whip Roger Price decides to retire”. Bradbury is reportedly concerned hostility towards the state government might cost him his seat. He has “even canvassed the idea of a move to Greenway considering it is now a very safe prospect post-redistribution”. Liberal MP Louise Markus is apparently looking good in her bid to move to Macquaire from Greenway, which has a notional Labor margin of 5.6 per cent on the draft redistribution boundaries.

• Late news: Kathleen Maltzahn, whose human rights activism included authorship of a book on the trafficking of women for prostitution in Australia, was announced as Greens candidate for the winnable Victorian state seat of Richmond a month ago. It was also confirmed Adam Bandt, who in 2007 became the party’s first candidate to make the final count at a general federal election, will again run in the federal seat of Melbourne.

Malcolm Mackerras in Crikey predicts a double dissolution election will be held on August 21, 2010, that presumably being the latest date allowable under the provision which states double dissolutions cannot be held later than six months before the expiry of the House of Representatives (UPDATE: Turns out it’s not the last date – not sure why Mackerras picked this one exactly). He also discusses the method that will be used to decide which of the elected Senators will be “long term”, and which will be chosen to face the people at the next half-Senate election. The Constitution leaves this to the Senate to decide, and it was traditionally done on the basis of the order of election. However, a peculiar result in Tasmania in 1951 meant four out of five Liberal Senators came to be deemed “long term”, which eventually prompted the Hawke government to require that the Electoral Commission calculate a hypothetical half-Senate election result for purposes of directing a “fair” outcome. This however remained non-binding, and at the first and so far only opportunity since (the 1987 double dissolution) the Senate chose not to be bound, instead conducting the division in a manner advantageous to the Australian Democrats. Mackerras notes Labor felt “guilty” about its failure to observe its own reform and promised that in future it would support a Senate resolution to give effect to the half-Senate count before the election took place, which Mackerras expects to be put and carried before his August election.

• Also in Crikey, Andrew Crook offers an overview of the two parties’ preselection processes, dealing in turn with Labor and Liberal (minor parties to follow).

• The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and Nielsen has Labor’s lead at 58.0-42.0.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,012 comments on “Morgan: 59.5-40.5”

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  1. I find it fascinating this election the amount of coverage in the media (especially blogs, etc) on preselections – by far the most I can remember.

    In many ways, democracy has shifted from the elections to the preselections (especially in safe seats) and the media (inc blogs) are turning their watchdog gaze on the process.

    It bodes well for transparency and greater democratic standards going forward. Open preselections are only a matter of time IMO.

  2. William:

    [It was also confirmed Adam Bandt, who in 2007 because the party’s first candidate to make the final count at a general federal election, will again run in the federal seat of Melbourne.]

    because or became?

  3. [The latest Reuters Poll Trend aggregate of Newspoll, Morgan and Nielsen has Labor’s lead at 58.0-42.0]

    I’d like to see Morgan removed from Reuters. It skews the results.

  4. The U.S. isn’t the only place that has wackaloons. This is from an AdelaideNow thread concerning Mike Rann being assaulted:
    [Those red marks on his face look like lipstick marks or a make-up artist has done it. Doesn’t look real to me.
    Posted by: Roger of Barossa 3:40pm today]
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26153457-5006301,00.html

    Forget about media bias for a moment, a more serious problem is people that refuse to believe anything, a sort of bias towards nihilism.

  5. Possum @ #9

    Could you elaborate? ~3.8% margin isn’t bad, considering that the ALP’s watermark can’t go much higher in Queensland than it did in ’07.

  6. Kakuru it’s Hajnal Ban’s seat not Duttons.

    What does it matter about the pre-selection anyway, even if Dutton loses the State Division will just override them anyway lol!

  7. [Also in Crikey, Andrew Crook offers an overview of the two parties’ preselection processes, dealing in turn with Labor and Liberal (minor parties to follow).]

    Both his “overviews” are superficial, shallow, obvious, cheap and cynical, and show no signs of any actual research. (Rather like Crikey as a whole, in fact.) Anyone with any knowledge of either the ALP or the Liberal Party could have done a better job in ten minutes.

  8. Glen,

    If the state division overrides the likely pre-selection loss by Dutton, then the Libs will have to rely even more heavily on backpackers and paid booth workers than usual.

    The Courier mail editorial yesterday didn’t help matters. The good LNP surf burghers of McPherson will snap back strongly against such blatant billying.

  9. [Both his “overviews” are superficial, shallow, obvious, cheap and cynical, and show no signs of any actual research. (Rather like Crikey as a whole, in fact.) Anyone with any knowledge of either the ALP or the Liberal Party could have done a better job in ten minutes.]

    I actually didn’t bother reading them, but now i must 😀

  10. bullying, not billying (though ‘billy goat logic’ is actually a fair descriptor for the Qld ABC / Courier mail editorial opinionistas.

  11. [Anyone with any knowledge of either the ALP or the Liberal Party could have done a better job in ten minutes.]
    I’ll check back at 17:20 then…

  12. [In NSW, the notorious “N40” rule, which allows Sussex Street to ignore the local branches, was originally intended to get women into parliament.]

    Wow. What a joke.

  13. Trubbell at Mill even if that did happen we arent going to be losing McPherson any time soon.

    I say to the ‘losing’ candidates and their supporters, cry me a river 😀

  14. Apparently yesterday there was a big protest by farmers in Germany, they want more E.U. subsidies, the new Vegemite has no hope against such protectionist measures!

    WOW, from 5 PM we will be able to vote on the new Vegemite brand name. Here are the options:
    1. VEGEMITE CHEESYBITE
    2. VEGEMITE CREAMYMATE
    3. VEGEMITE SMOOTH
    4. VEGEMITE SNACKMATE
    5. VEGEMITE VEGEMATE
    6. VEGEMITE VEGEMILD
    7. VEGEMITE VAJAYJAYMITE

    http://www.vegemite.com.au/vegemite/page?PagecRef=758

  15. [kakuru, was that corrective or cosmetic surgery?]
    She wanted to be taller, so I consider that cosmetic, but it is possible she considers it corrective.

  16. ShowsOn I would call it neither.

    When are they doing the preselection for Wright anyway?

    Too bad Mal Brough has to wait for Fran Bailey in McEwen to retire.

  17. [Too bad Mal Brough has to wait for Fran Bailey in McEwen to retire.]
    This is ridiculous. Why doesn’t he just join the LNP?

  18. 31

    Since we are being technical and theoretical, to be the government for 3 months all that is needed is the GG`s appointment. For longer that that seats in Parliament are required also. But at the one or two votes per seat theoretical minimum these do not require huge numbers of votes.

  19. [This is ridiculous. Why doesn’t he just join the LNP?]

    Probably scared of the surgeon’s knife… Victorian political hacks are far gentler than Queensland political quacks.

  20. [Since we are being technical and theoretical, to be the government for 3 months all that is needed is the GG`s appointment.]

    That wasn’t the question asked. The question was about votes, at an election. The correct answer is that a party could win a majority in the House of Representatives by polling 76 primary votes.

  21. [That wasn’t the question asked. The question was about votes, at an election. The correct answer is that a party could win a majority in the House of Representatives by polling 76 primary votes.]

    150 seats won uncontested by Labor – theoretically?

  22. [150 seats won uncontested by Labor – theoretically?]
    He means if one party received 1 valid vote in 76 seats, and there were no other votes, then that party would win all those seats and could thus form a government.

  23. [150 seats won uncontested by Labor – theoretically?]

    Why do Greens always want to cheat by redefining the question? The question obviously assumes a contested election.

  24. Rewi Lyall @ 28

    Cosmetic surgery, as far as the LNP merger is concerned. The operation was a success, but the patient is still dying. Barnaby is right: the LNP is a bloody mess.

  25. Is it just me or does dead wood only stick out when you’re in Opposition.

    The deadwood can hide when you’re in government, like B. Bishop, Tuckey and Ruddock, Slipper, Washer, Moylan but when you’re in Opposition they stick out like a sore thumb!

    I dont see any electoral success for the Tories unless they chop away this deadwood and we bring in a newer generation of Tories to Parliament.

  26. 40

    Yes I know that wasn`t the question but it goes into the theoretical territory of what is the minimum requirement for government. The GG`s appointment is the minimum requirement for government for 3 months. That is the nature of the Westminster style appointed executive system in Australia. The 75 primary votes needed for a non-absolute HoR majority (with a non-government speaker and all seats filled) are irrelevant unless convention is followed. Only a third of chamber is needed for a quorum so 25 votes could get a HoR majority.

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