Morgan: 62-38

The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll (three days old now, but what the hell), conducted over the previous two weekends, has Labor’s lead increasing still further, from 61-39 to 62-38. Labor’s primary vote is up a point to 51.5 per cent the Coalition’s is down one to 32.5 per cent.

Elsewhere:

• The Liberal preselection vote in Peter Costello’s seat of Higgins went according to script, with his former staffer Kelly O’Dwyer defeating Andrew Abercrombie at the final vote by 222 votes to 112. Reports over the past few days suggest O’Dwyer might be off to Canberra sooner than expected. The Prime Minister appears to be wooing Peter Costello with job offers (executive director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London being the main tip, according to Phillip Coorey in the Sydney Morning Herald) so as to afflict the Liberals with another troublesome by-election. Costello did not rule out going out early when he made his surprise retirement announcement in June. Glenn Milne reports such a departure might come soon enough for a by-election to be held on the same day as that for Bradfield.

• Alan Tudge, a former staffer to Brendan Nelson and Alexander Downer, has won the Liberal preselection to succeed Chris Pearce in the eastern Melbourne seat of Aston. Andrew Landeryou of VexNews reports Tudge won the final ballot from Neil Angus, having seen off Nick McGowan, Terry Barnes, Deanne Ryall, James Matheson, Sue McMillan, Mike Kapos, Darren Pearce, Ken Aldred and Michael Flynn at earlier counts.

• Julia Irwin has announced she will retire from her safe Labor western Sydney seat of Fowler at the next election, taking the opportunity to launch a spray about the failings of her party’s power structures (her own success in cornering a safe seat for 11 unproductive years being an evident case in point). Irwin believes the Labor margin in the seat has been “built up” by her own personal qualities and hard work, owing little or nothing to its classic low-income, high-immigration Labor profile. Appropriately enough, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports her departure “threatens to create a factional fight” between the Left, which backs Liverpool mayor Wendy Waller, and the Right, which is pushing the unsuccessful 2004 candidate for Greenway, Ed Husic. Laurie Ferguson, left homeless by the redistribution’s abolition of his inner west electorate of Reid, is said to have “little support” from his own Left faction, and “his career is most likely over”.

• Phillip Coorey further reports that factional disputes in Fowler over control of local branches are echoed in the south coast seat of Throsby, whose disappointing member Jennie George is “contemplating whether to run again”.

• Will David Hawker’s departure from Wannon open an entry for the Nationals? The electorate’s history suggests otherwise, but Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports the party is considering running a candidate for the first time since 1984.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a decision by the New South Wales Liberal Party to bring forward federal preselections (so they are conducted on recently published draft redistribution boundaries) is likely to secure the positions of Bronwyn Bishop in Mackellar and Philip Ruddock in Berowra. In further exciting news on the Liberal renewal front, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Alby Schultz and Pat Farmer will again seek preselection in their respective seats of Hume and Macarthur. Farmer launched a spray at his constituents on the night of the 2007 federal election for failing to give him the margin he felt he deserved, and has since moved to the expensive north shore suburb of Mosman. Macarthur has been made a notionally marginal Labor seat under the draft redistribution.

• Imre Salusinszky also reports that police sergeant Darren Jameson is favoured to win Liberal preselection in Belinda Neal’s seat of Robertson, notwithstanding that former Liberal member Jim Lloyd is considering a comeback.

• The Liberal National Party’s feeble legal challenge to Queensland Labor’s win in Chatsworth at the March state election died its inevitable death when the Queensland Supreme Court brought down its ruling on Thursday. A smaller than average 14 errors were identified into the count, the effect of which when rectified was to increase Labor’s margin from 74 votes to 85. There were a grand total of two cases of double voting, both involving confused elderly citizens. Antony Green offers some commentary on the judgement, which stands as a heartening confirmation of the integrity of Australia’s electoral processes.

• With New South Wales state Labor member Phil Koperberg indicating he is bitterly disappointed with politics and might not go the distance, Antony Green weighs in with an overview of his electorate of Blue Mountains. It notes that Kerry Bartlett, who lost the corresponding federal seat of Macquarie to Koperberg’s predecessor Bob Debus in 2007, has been mentioned as a potential Liberal candidate.

Alex Sinnott of the Warrnambool Standard reports that Liberal preselection candidates for the Victorian state upper house region of Western Victoria include incumbent David Koch, former police sergeant, anti-corruption campaigner and Wannon aspirant Simon Illingworth, former Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, Colac businessman Richard Riordan and Daylesford real estate agent Paul Johnson. Another incumbent, John Vogels, is retiring. The coalition agreement gives the Liberals the top two positions on a joint ticket, with the Nationals taking the third.

Anna Caldwell of the Courier-Mail reports a private members’ bill sponsored by independent Nicklin MP Peter Wellington to introduce fixed three-year terms has been voted down by both government and opposition. The former wants the matter determined by referendum – Deputy Premier Paul Lucas further says a four-year term would be “more appropriate” as it would “enable necessary planning and implementation time for governments”, which (given the state of play south of the border) makes one doubt the government’s seriousness about seeing reform.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

395 comments on “Morgan: 62-38”

Comments Page 7 of 8
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  1. [As a devil’s advocate you make a very self important twat.]
    And you make an unimportant twat. Want to try some intelligent conversation?

  2. Some people really are DREAMERS!

    Newspoll NSW Labor 2PP – last 5 prior to the election – 56.5, 56, 59, 53, 54.

    Newspoll NSW Labor 2PP – last 5 – 46, 45, 47, 44, 41.

    I wonder if it’s as fun as it sounds to stick one’s head in a hole and keep it there?

  3. Diogs,

    But, then you demand absolute consistency from others especially elected representatives.

    What would Diogenes think of Diogenes if he were a politician?

  4. What the hell is going on with the sidebar? I’ve got links to these well-known Electoral Commissions; The American Conservative, WSJ, NYT etc.

  5. It’s Time,

    Read your own posts and in the words of the great philosopher John McEnroe, “You cannot be serious!”.

  6. [What the hell is going on with the sidebar? I’ve got links to these well-known Electoral Commissions; The American Conservative, WSJ, NYT etc.]

    Recent comments on the left are giving non-PB Crikey links to other threads.

  7. What a sensational Australian Story tonight.

    Someone should get that Major Mick Stone into politics. He’ll be the PM one day.

  8. The green consensus seems to be that they will hold the BoP in the Senate after an election.

    Is this certain? No.

    Two sitting Green Senators are up for re-election. Milne will win. Seiwert may not. If Labor support holds as it seems to for the past two years the Greens will have one less Senate seat.

    X for President ???

  9. Can anyone give me a quote where Rudd or Roxon said before the election that the private health insruance rebate would not be modified in any way. I recall them saying something like that, but I can’t find the words.

  10. Thanks, Finns. I’ll try and do it tomorrow from work, between contained chaos and muted madness. It’s starting to escalate again in the Sad, the Mad and the Bad Inc., business.
    Oh, and before anyone gets their knickers in a knot about my trivializing this territory, I work here, willingly.

  11. [If the ETS is not passed and Labor goes for the DD why would they preference the Greens?]
    Because there aren’t enough Steve Fieldings to go around?

  12. Ruawake, even if the Greens lose a seat, if Labor gains two seats from the Coalition, Labor is up to 34 and plus the Greens gives 38, half the Senate. If either Labor or the Greens do better, Labor plus the Greens have a Senate majority with the Greens in the balance of power. Both Labor and the Greens would have to do worse than in 2007 for any other Senate result to occur.

  13. [If the ETS is not passed and Labor goes for the DD why would they preference the Greens?]

    GG exactly, do they really want 2 Senators?

  14. Antony, what chance do you give Fielding retaining his seat?

    I think it would have to be a fluke, you know he would have to some how mop up a heap of preferences from all over the place.

  15. The 20 Nov 2007 letter to Michael Armitage talks about ‘retaining the existing private health insurance rebates’. I suppose it depends on whether you interpret ‘existing’ as ruling out any change at all.

    Dear Dr Armitage,

    Thank you for your letter of 29 October 2007 seeking clarification on Federal Labor’s policy regarding private health insurance.
    Both my Shadow Minister for Health, Nicola Roxon, and I have made clear on many occasions this year that Federal Labor is committed to retaining the existing private health insurance rebates, including the 30 per cent general rebate and the 35 and 40 per rebates for older Australians.
    Federal Labor will also maintain Lifetime Health Cover and the Medicare Levy Surcharge.
    Labor will maintain the existing framework for regulating private health insurance, including the process for approval of premium increases. Zero per cent premium adjustment is not Labor policy.
    I understand Nicola Roxon’s office has also confirmed with you that Federal Labor has no plans to require private health insurance funds to make equivalent payments to public hospitals for patients who elect to be treated as private patients.
    I trust this allays your concerns. Federal Labor values its relationship with the private health insurance sector and we look forward to this continuing regardless of the election outcome on November 24.

    Yours sincerely
    Kevin Rudd
    Federal Labor Leader
    Member for Griffith

  16. [Ruawake, even if the Greens lose a seat, if Labor gains two seats from the Coalition, Labor is up to 34 and plus the Greens gives 38, half the Senate.]

    Not enough to pass legislation? So the Greens do not hold the bop ?

  17. [None if his primary vote is only 3%, as it is likely to be.]
    Do you think Fielding’s stance on climate change has been a concerted attempt to appeal to a particular climate change skeptic demographic?

    Is he trying to get some publicity / notoriety by presenting a skeptical position as a last ditch attempt to get re-elected?

  18. If the ETS is not passed and Labor goes for the DD why would they preference the Greens?

    GG exactly, do they really want 2 Senators?

    -or 2 more fieldings if labor doesnt preference.

  19. turk,

    Fielding is edging towards supporting Labor on the ETS. If there is a DD election on the ETS and the Greens have voted with the LIbs, why wouldn’t Labor support Fielding or some other moderate family oriented group.

    The Greens exaggerate their importance to Labor.

  20. [If there is a DD election on the ETS and the Greens have voted with the LIbs, why wouldn’t Labor support Fielding or some other moderate family oriented group.]

    Yep, another pig in a pole. Do you think that Labor are slow learners?

  21. Ruawake, the Greens getting the balance of power will be a result of Labor’s result, not the Greens. In 2010, Labor will be defending only 2 seats in QLD, TAS, WA and VIC. Labor or the Greens will win a seat in VIC, Labor or the Greens will win a seat in QLD where the LNP are defending 4 seats. If the Greens lose a seat in WA, Labor will win it. If the Greens lose a seat, Labor will win it, then there are two certain Labor or Green wins. That’s a Labor/Green majority. Beyond that, Labor could win a seat in TAS. I think NSW will go 3:3, and in SA, Labor is more likely to win 3 seat and leave the Greens battling with the Liberals for a gain from Liberal.

    As far as I can see, the only way the Greens don’t get the balance of power is if Labor loses more than 10 House seat.

  22. [Is he trying to get some publicity / notoriety by presenting a skeptical position as a last ditch attempt to get re-elected?]

    Shows On, it’s pretty difficult to come to any logical conclusion other than that is exactly what his strategy is.

  23. [Two sitting Green Senators are up for re-election. Milne will win. Seiwert may not. If Labor support holds as it seems to for the past two years the Greens will have one less Senate seat.

    X for President ???]

    I think it’s unlikely Siewert will not win her seat again. However, even if she does fail to re-win her seat it doesn’t make it impossible that the Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate.

    As for your ‘X for President’ comment… I’m not sure how it’s relevant. The Senate President has a deliberative vote unlike the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

    This means it’s highly unlikely that governments will see the incentive in supporting an independent/cross bench President. I also doubt Xenophon would want to be President of the Senate as it would take up too much of his time for him to be able to adequately meet with interest groups and consider decisions.

  24. Fielding is edging towards supporting Labor on the ETS. If there is a DD election on the ETS and the Greens have voted with the LIbs, why wouldn’t Labor support Fielding or some other moderate family oriented group.

    -I have read some doozy’s on this site,but that one takes the cake.

  25. Antony GREEN @ 322

    [Labor plus the Greens have a Senate majority with the Greens in the balance of power. Both Labor and the Greens would have to do worse than in 2007 for any other Senate result to occur.]

    So if Labor maintains it current polling, it will do better in a DD Senate election rather than a half Senate election at the end of 2010? So this is why in today’s PM the story that Labor strategists are looking more favourably at a DD election on the ETS as giving Labor a better Senate outcome than a Senate half election at end of 2010.

  26. [As far as I can see, the only way the Greens don’t get the balance of power is if Labor loses more than 10 House seat.]

    So stick that up your …….

    😀

  27. [Shows On, it’s pretty difficult to come to any logical conclusion other than that is exactly what his strategy is.]
    I, and many others here, think that the Liberals will fold and vote for the CPRS in November. That could produce quite a lot of extremely disillusioned Liberal voters come election time, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Fielding tries to tap into that.

  28. [So if Labor maintains it current polling, it will do better in a DD Senate election rather than a half Senate election at the end of 2010?]
    I don’t think it will make a difference, the Greens will achieve the balance of power in their own right either way.

    The only way that won’t happen is if the Labor vote collapses so far that they don’t win government.

  29. Bob Brown, every chance he gets abuses the Ruddster (that’s if he isn’t having a jealous rant against Pete), today he was saying what a weak leader Kev was.
    I’m waiting for Kev to give him a bit of his own back.
    Labor will preference the Sex Party at the next election might do it 😀

  30. [Fielding is edging towards supporting Labor on the ETS. If there is a DD election on the ETS and the Greens have voted with the LIbs, why wouldn’t Labor support Fielding or some other moderate family oriented group.]

    Because, on balance, The Greens are more supportive of the Government’s policies and legislation than Family First has been. If you look at the voting records where the Opposition and the Government have voted differently in the Senate the Greens have voted with the Government more often than Fielding or Xenophon have.

    Also, politically, it is far easier negotiating with only 1 cross bench party rather than a group of competing parties/independent senators. It would be much easier for the Government to pass legislation and negotiate if the Greens had the sole balance of power.

  31. ltep,

    It’s all about options. Labor would be more than pleased to have multiple ways to cobble a majority in the Senate. The Libs and the nats will probably split. Having other Independents may be a better over all outcome.

    The Greens have proven to be spivs in the past. Why would they be any different in the future.

  32. Vote1Maxine – I don’t agree at all and have published all my calculations comparing the two outcomes at http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/07/double-dissolution-versus-halfsenate-election-which-would-be-better-for-labor-in-the-senate.html

    I don’t think there will be a DD in the first half of next year because it would cut a year of the government’s term, and because I don’t think the decision will be made based on Labor improving its vote from 2007.

    Labor can still use a DD trigger as late as September next year. I think a government is more likely to use a DD trigger then because it doesn’t shorten the government’s term.

  33. Sloppy Joe is dreaming again:

    [JoeHockeyso it appears there is growing criticism of the govt spending in senate hearing5 minutes ago from mobile web ]

  34. [Sloppy Joe is dreaming again:

    JoeHockeyso it appears there is growing criticism of the govt spending in senate hearing5 minutes ago from mobile web]
    Their ABC is certainly presenting it that way.

  35. Frank
    Stevens and Henry will shoot the stimulus knockers down in flames.
    That’s another thing Brown was whinging about today, he didn’t want them having the last word, said they should have been the first ones up before the senate enquiry.

    Maxine
    Paul Bonjourno also said tonight that Labor were looking likely to have a DD because the Opposition and the Greens both refused to budge over the ETS

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