ACNielsen: 55-45

The latest monthly ACNielsen survey of 1400 respondents (conducted from Thursday to Saturday) shows Labor’s two-party lead down slightly from 56-44 to 55-45. This seems a fairly conservative return on the changes in the primary vote: Labor down two points to 44 per cent, the Coalition up two to 40 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull also scores relatively well on personal ratings, his approval up four to 35 per cent and his disapproval down five to 55 per cent. However, Kevin Rudd’s approval is also up two points to 70 per cent, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 67-24 to 69-23. Rudd’s disapproval rating is up one point to 25 per cent.

Further afield:

• Courtesy of comprehensive coverage at Andrew Landeryou’s VexNews we learn the Liberal preselection vote to succeed David Hawker in Wannon has been won by Daniel Tehan, deputy director of the Victorian Liberal Party and son of the late Kennett government minister Marie Tehan. The other candidate who made it through to the final round was Stephen Mitchell, founder of natural gas explorer Molopo Australia. David Clark, Elizabeth Matuschka, Hugh Koch and Katrina Rainsford were eliminated after the first round, followed by Simon Price and Rod Nockles, then Louise Staley, then Matt Makin.

• Labor veteran Duncan Kerr has announced he will not contest his Hobart seat of Denison at the next federal election. Misha Schubert of The Age reports this has come as a surprise, such that “when news broke yesterday, there was no obvious successor staking a public claim”. It is widely noted that Kerr leaves his seat with a margin of 15.6 per cent after gaining it from the Liberals in 1987, though it probably wouldn’t do to put this entirely down to candidate factors. Early preselection contenders identified by Michael Stedman of The Mercury are George Williams, constitutional lawyer and “Kerr associate”, Jonathan Jackson, son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson, and Rebecca White, staffer to Kerr and a state candidate for Lyons. However, state secretary John Dowling sounds confident none of the 27 state election candidates will be contesting preselection.

• With Peter Dutton confirming his intention to jump ship from notionally Labor Dickson in northern Brisbane to safe Liberal McPherson on the Gold Coast, Labor’s narrowly unsuccessful candidate for Dickson in 2007, Fiona McNamara, has signalled her intention to again seek preselection.

• Paige Taylor of The Australian reports former WA Premier Alan Carpenter is “preparing to leave parliament”, and “could quit his seat of Willagee before the next state election, due in 2012”. Although a neighbour of the seat of Fremantle which gave the Greens their breakthrough lower house win in May, Willagee is genuinely unloseable for Labor. The front-runner to succeed Carpenter would appear to be Dave Kelly, state secretary of the Left faction Liquor, Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union, who wisely held back when Fremantle became available.

• The bill for a referendum to amend South Australia’s Constitution discussed in the previous post passed the House of Assembly on the second try, after embarrassing failure on the first. However, Attorney-General Michael Atkinson openly admits he does not expect it to be passed in the upper house. The Liberals have spoken in favour of four-year Council terms and a double dissolution mechanism, but against cutting Council numbers, giving the Council President a deliberative vote, and in particular the plan to combine the measures into a single referendum question. The Legislative Council is also debating the Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Bill, which proposes to ban registered political parties using the name of “a prominent public body” (plainly aimed at the Save the Royal Adelaide Hospital Group), increase fines for electoral offences by as much as 400 per cent, require that redistributions commence 24 months after an election as opposed to the current three, increase the number of members required of a registered political party from 150 to 500 (in line with most other states), introduce compulsory enrolment (surprised they didn’t have this already) and ban third parties from producing how-to-vote cards.

• Former NSW Rural Fire Services chief Phil Koperberg, who replaced Bob Debus as Labor member for Blue Mountains at the 2007 state election, is making noises which are generally being interpreted as meaning he will quit politics, either at or before the next election. According to the ABC, Koperberg says he is “not cut out for the nature of partisan or party politics and I find myself doing and saying things I would rather not do, which my conscience would have me to otherwise”, and that he is considering his future in the “medium to long-term”. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Koperberg “has told journalists, colleagues and even Coalition MPs several times in the past two years that he was thinking of quitting before the next election”.

• Via Democratic Audit, the House Standing Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee is conducting an inquiry into the effectiveness of the Referendum (Machinery Provisions) Act 1984.

UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has Labor down a little after last week’s spike, from 61-39 to 59-41. Not sure why, but the usual suite of further questions is not included this time.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,703 comments on “ACNielsen: 55-45”

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  3. Turk, most of what’s done here is pretty mundane and usually in good humour.

    If you want to see how nasty this stuff can get, you should see my inbox sometimes.

    -possum you should see posts 2562 and 2564.

  4. scorpio

    No way. I’ll leave it to the professionals!

    K

    Monowitz was also considered part of Auschwitz. The actual gas chambers were in the Birkenau part.

  8. [No 2597

    There are better sources for lewd images.]
    2597

    Stop quoting yourself.
    [there is no effort to get rid of the dead wood.]
    Turnbull has no authority.

  11. Psephos

    I think most patients who can’t breath have portable ventilators now. These can be part of a wheelchair so they have mobility. I had no idea anyone could survive for 60 years with an iron lung (I suppose it’s a world record).

  13. there is no effort to get rid of the dead wood.

    Turnbull has no authority.

    -I thought that quote related to the labor side as well.

  14. And just before someone points it out, you can have children and live in an iron lung. I made that one up but the guilt got to me in the end and I had to fess up!!

  17. I havent seen this being reported here.

    [Sep 20, 2009 – Aussie cancels Mumbai trip

    MELBOURNE – AN AUSTRALIAN state leader on Sunday cancelled a planned trip to Mumbai due to travel advice from Canberra that extremists were planning attacks in the city.

    Victoria state premier John Brumby was scheduled to visit the city this week as part of a trip to assure Indians that Australia remains a safe place to study following a recent wave of assaults on Indian students in Melbourne.

    But he said in a statement Sunday that he had altered his itinerary after Australia’s foreign affairs department on Friday issued a travel advisory warning about the possibility of attacks in Mumbai.

    ‘Credible information indicates that terrorists may be planning further attacks in Mumbai, including at places frequented by tourists, in September or October 2009,’ the warning said.

    An assault by 10 Islamist gunmen in Mumbai last November killed 166 people, including two Australians.

    Mr Brumby said he would spend more time in New Delhi, instead of travelling to Mumbai.]

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_432297.html

  19. Very witty, aren’t they!!

    Considering my brother splattered his brains out using a gun,i find that particular reference appalling,the continual degradation and character assasination serves no purpose,and ultimately leads to those posters being figures to be reviled.

    may god have mercy on such souls.

  20. Psephos went:

    [Well my father died in Auschwitz, my mother was abducted by aliens, my sister fell to her death while climbing Anapurna, all my children became Moonies, and I’ve been in an iron lung since I was six. So don’t talk to ME about your tough luck, pal.]

    So you’re the dude that sends me the strange hatemail!!

    On something that conveniently bridges the polling/personal bridge – keep an eye on this from Morgan over the next few days…. it will probably be very interesting.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/press-releases/2009/934/

  21. The Finns & ShowsOn,

    I can see the way it will be reported in the Indian media.

    Australian Leader Insults India’s Security Forces!

    Carabine would fit right in with their fourth estate…

  22. When I was a regular visitor to Fairfield in the early 80s (it was the main AIDS hospital in Melbourne), there was a polio ward with I think about 20 patients in iron lungs. I remember being told that some of them had been there since the polio epidemic of the early 1940s. If they were children in the 1940s they’d be in their late 60s now. Maybe they’re all dead, but if not they must be somewhere.

  23. [On something that conveniently bridges the polling/personal bridge – keep an eye on this from Morgan over the next few days…. it will probably be very interesting.]

    Presumably it’s a report on Gary Morgan’s mental health.

  24. K, it will get worst if Australia beat India in the ICC Championship final in the next two weeks.

    [Australia Cricket Team insults India Cricket Team]

  26. [I remember being told that some of them had been there since the polio epidemic of the early 1940s. ]
    Why couldn’t they be given the polio vaccine?

  27. turk182 @ 2618,

    I am eternally grateful that I have not had to endure such a deep stamp of trauma.

    But wielding it here and now, you are drifting perilously close to the rocks of professional victimhood.

  29. The Finns,

    Nothing so polite (or accurate).

    Australian Cricket Team Commits Terrorist Attack On Indian Cricket Team

    Indian PM Demands UN Strike on Australian Cricket Academy

    That’s more like it!

  31. [Name the Australian (1) political leader and (2) billionaire who had polio as children?]\
    I’m pretty sure Beazley had it. I think Dick Pratt had it.

  32. A vaccine is a prevention, not a cure. As I understand it, once the myelin coatings on the nerves are destroyed by the polio virus, there’s no way to repair them and thus no cure for polio.

  35. The Finns,

    I don’t care. More to the point, neither do the Poms.

    They are very ostentatious about their preference for 20/20 ➡ it could have something to do with their inventing it (although it was soon crated and packed off to Mumbai), and rather more to do with who started the 50-over internationals.

    Now who was that???

  38. Vaccines don’t give 100% protection and not everyone is vaccinated. And as Psephos said, they prevent but don’t cure.

    Answers

    (1) Kim Beasley
    (2) Kerry Packer
    (3) John Laws

  39. But wielding it here and now, you are drifting perilously close to the rocks of professional victimhood.

    Kersebleptes.

    -I was responding to the jape
    /Very witty, aren’t they!!/
    As regards your assertion of professional victimhood,words fail me.

  40. [Adam do you think Costello will wait until the next election or will we have Kelly O’Dwyer in soon?]

    Depends on when Rudd wants him to start the new job.

  44. [K, there’s a team dressed in red that is beating the shit out of the Aussie cricket team at the moment. who are they?]
    Have you been watching? It is a rubbish pitch. The ball was jagging all over the place at the start, and taking spin in the middle overs. If we can get to 200 we will win.

  48. [K, there’s a team dressed in red that is beating the shit out of the Aussie cricket team at the moment.]

    That’s so the blood won’t show up once Lee gets to them!!!

  49. After the initial onset of paralysis, caused by inflammation of the myelin coatings of the nerves of the spinal cord (myelitis), there is usually some degree of recovery, sometimes total recovery, as the inflammation subsides. But after that, whatever degree of damage is left, you are stuck with for life. Roosevelt, for example, initially had paralysis of his lower back and abdominal muscles, and lost control of his bowel and bladder, as well as the paralysis of his legs. But these gradually returned to normal, leaving only the paralysis of his legs, which was permanent despite all the various cures he tried.

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