Hendo off the hook

No Morgan poll on voting intention this week, although they do have a survey of 687 respondents on carbon emissions trading schemes. Apart from that:

• Paul Henderson’s Labor government has survived today’s no-confidence debate in the Northern Territory parliament, disappointing those hoping for a precedent-setting no-confidence motion and possibly an election to tide them over until the double whammy in South Australia and Tasmania next March. Nelson independent Gerry Wood announced he had reached an agreement to back Labor on confidence supply in the interests of “stable government”. Wood’s decision rendered irrelevant the defection of Macdonnell MP Alison Anderson, who deprived Labor of its one-seat majority and appeared ready to back the Country Liberal Party to bring down the government.

• Margaret May, the long-serving, low-profile Liberal member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Gold Coast News reports she is “battling serious health concerns”. Newspaper reports have been taking for granted that the opening will be of interest to Peter Dutton, who went down to the wire in his outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson in 2007 and has been further damaged by the redistribution proposal.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell is being “pressured” to purge parliamentary ranks of dead wood/members standing in the way of his sources’ promotion prospects. Those named are deputy leader and North Shore MP Jillian Skinner, Wakehurst MP Brad Hazzard, Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, Castle Hill MP Michael Richardson and Cronulla MP Malcolm Kerr. Skinner, Hazzard and Merton are named by Clennell as supporters of O’Farrell, who is said to harbour ongoing concerns about the leadership ambitions of Manly MP Michael Baird. Baird and Willoughby MP Gladys Berejiklian are said to be possible successors to Skinner in the deputy’s position.

• The hearing into Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano’s challenge against her defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the Queensland state election in March has begun, with lawyers to sum up their cases on Monday. The LNP claims to have found enough routine-sounding anomalies to justify overturning Kilburn’s 74-vote win or having a new election declared, although the Electoral Commission of Queensland argues otherwise. Mark Oberhardt of the Courier-Mail reports a judgement is expected next month.

• Shawn O’Brien offers a beginners guide to fixed term reform for federal parliament at Online Opinion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,007 comments on “Hendo off the hook”

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  6. As I said earlier today the amendments would come and the negotiations would start.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/no-intention-to-call-early-election-says-rudd-20090814-el8s.html
    [The Opposition emailed proposed amendments to Climate Change Minister Penny Wong yesterday afternoon.
    Mr Hunt said last night that key ministers and their shadows would meet on Monday. ”This has begun in good faith and that is how we hope it will continue.”]

  7. I just think sometimes people here have problems accepting that view they personally disagree with, are what “Australia” actually believes. That the other side had produced and “won” the battle of ideas, and as a whole the electorate bought it.

    To put some dubious examples..,

    The xenophobic/dog-whistling Hanson-Howard stance towards immigrants and foreigners imo, was an idea that was to varying extents was truly supported by the people. While I find it abhorrent that Howard produced the idea, and made it as less friendly and tolerant place as a result – I acknowledge he did genuinely change society’s beliefs. I am hoping Labour could genuinely “counter change” the people beliefs on the issue.

    Another would developing this attitude that there is an entitlement to middle class welfare. The Howard years had created this, and it truly changed people’s views on what the people expect the government to do. People didn’t always think “what in it for me. Me me me” when talking about Budgets etc, but that’s the norm nowadays….

  10. No Viggo I can’t remember you having said anything unacceptable. Truth be told almost everyone is pretty darn good. There are just one or two bad eggs that spoil the experience for me. I don’t really even mind GP’s input. It’s comedy and a window into conservative psycology.
    I come to this site because I know others will have already tracked down interesting stories, like a cooperative team we all benifit from doing this. I like the pseph talk, analysing polls and expanding my knowledge of parliamentary matters. I respect the views of many commentators here and when we all chip in our knowledge we can build an understanding of what tactics and manipulations the pollies are making and why. I am also interested to learn others opinions even when I disagree. Even the debates i find quite entertaining, but there are somethings that I cannot abide. There is plenty of worthwhile critisism of political oponents but there is also SO MUCH tedious, repetitive unsubstanciated nonsence insults flung around in all directions and the bulk comes from just two sources. These two culprits also love to seaze upon any comment made by an opponent (but not a friend ever) and either blow it out of proportions or distort it. Let us say for instance that for whatever reason someone says “the Nazi’s did not kill 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 Jews”, they would take this to mean that not only does the speaker deny the haulicost but that they also supported it. It’s just so irritating to have to scroll through this junk and it’s hard to just let bolony go on the record unchallenged, so you respond and things just get worse. I enjoy reading posts of Antony Green and those of like caliber – not fistycuffs with bufoons. I mean really, surely even people of similar ideological persuasions can spot a total bufoon hell-bent on chaos? So endith the rant.

  11. Courting the Farmers is an interesting idea for the ALP to follow, i see when the ETS was debated during the week in the HoR obne of the ALP’s speakers was the MP for Page!

    I would be interested if either Antony or Psephos could confirm would i be right in calling that area tradtional National Party and do the ALP feel they can hold that seat or is it the type of seat that should return to the Nationals or Liberals.

    Regarding the Greens i see they do well in some regional towns but amoungst farmers i don’t see much support.

  13. [I would be interested if either Antony or Psephos could confirm would i be right in calling that area tradtional National Party and do the ALP feel they can hold that seat or is it the type of seat that should return to the Nationals or Liberals.]

    I reckon we will find out in 2013 when the next WA State Election takes place and see how Vince Catania will fare running as a National Party Candidate, after winning the seat for the ALP. And I’d like to know how the local Nats up there think of him joining their ranks, especially after Brendan GRylls was read the riot act in regards of siding with the ALP.

  14. The Heysen Molotov!! I agree the debate here sometimes becomes predictable which is why i go periods of time without posting and even during the ETS debate it has at times been shallow but and i suspect this shows why most people generally do not get involved involved in politics.

    I have raised several questions for the Greens on this site that remain unanswered leaving the Greens open to the charge of being limp kneed.

  16. [Frank Page is in NSW]

    I know, I was referring to the WA State seat of North West won by the former ALP, now Nationals in waiting member Vince Catania and whether the Nats will vote for him considering he used to be in the ALP.

  17. From my understanding North West covers an area that use to be called Barrup! in the Court landslide of the mid 1990s it narrowly stayed with the ALP so under normal circumstance i would expect the ALP to win that seat back.

  18. [From my understanding North West covers an area that use to be called Barrup! in the Court landslide of the mid 1990s it narrowly stayed with the ALP so under normal circumstance i would expect the ALP to win that seat back.]

    But this time with Catania being with the Nationals, and their tendency to give preferential treatment with Royalties For Regions, I’m suggesting it “might” go the other way.

  19. now this is really good news…

    http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1529/

    (Reuters) – A U.S. future economic growth gauge rose in the latest week, as its yearly growth rate surged to a 26-year high, suggesting that recovery will commence at the briskest pace in decades, a research group said on Friday.

    The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 47-week high of 123.9 in the week to Aug. 7 from a downwardly revised 121.7 the prior week, which was originally reported at 121.8.

    Meanwhile, the index’s annualized growth rate leapt to a 26-year high of 13.4 percent from last week’s five-year high of 10.4 percent, which ECRI originally reported at 10.5 percent.

    It was the index’s highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to Aug. 26, 1983, when it stood at 13.9 percent.

  20. It seems St Bob and the Greens have finally come to their senses and have lowered their CPRS target from 40% to 30%. Can anyone crunch the numbers ?

    [The Federal Opposition and the Greens have both presented the Government with amendments to break the deadlock over the renewable energy target.

    The Opposition parties want the Government to separate the renewable energy plan from the contentious emissions trading scheme legislation.

    The Coalition’s environment spokesman, Greg Hunt, says he has put forward amendments that would allow the renewable energy target to be passed.

    “The ball is with the Government,” he said.

    “We’ve acted in good faith. We’ve provided the amendments.”

    A spokeswoman for Climate Change Minister Penny Wong has confirmed the Government received a copy of the Coalition’s proposed changes yesterday afternoon.

    The Greens have also put forward amendments which would increase the 20 per cent renewable energy target to 30 per cent of Australia’s electricity needs.

    The legislation is listed for debate next week.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/15/2656821.htm?section=justin

  21. Some thoughts on ‘courting the farmers’. Some complexities for folk to think about:

    Who are farmers? I haven’t seen any statistics, but here are a few things that seem to me to be happening.

    1. There are fewer and fewer farmers absolutely and proportionate to both the population as a whole and to the population of rural and regional areas all the time. Farms are increasingly capital and machine intensive. This is main reason why the Nationals are disappearing. Naturally, both Labor and Liberals have been courting the consequences assiduously.
    2. The remaining ‘farmers’ are less and less likely to be actual people and more and more likely to be well-capitalised corporates.

    3. Farmers are more and more likely to be living off the farm in a regional town. This is because it is harder and harder to find women who want to live isolated lives. The women will often have satisfying work and social lives in the towns. The income of the women will often be critical to hanging onto the farm in bad times. The different sources of income may cause conflicts of economic interest within the family unit. For example, cheap labor for farms (through, say, WorkChoices) might also mean a reduction in income for the woman working in the town.

    3. A significant number of people who now live where farmers live, used to live in the cities. They are tree changers and sea changers. They will often be engaging in embrionic or real farming activity – running a few steers, olives, vines, whatever will make a quid. They are very conscious of the environment. They will have noticed the levels in the wells dropping, the drying of the creeks, the explosive bushfires, the earlier arrival of birds in spring, the early flowering times and all the other natural signals of climate change. They had no predisposition to vote National and the current antics of the Nationals on climate change will ensure that these changers will not be voting National.

    4. A good deal of very conservative rural and regional voters are small business owners, truck owners, contractors, machinery operators or others (mechanics, fertilizer sales persons etc) who provide services to farms. They have strong views about independence. They probably distrust unions. They distrust all governments. These are often persuaded that what is good for farmers must be good for them. However, if farmers (and hence the contractors etc themselves) start going broke because there is no water in the irrigation channels, they may think twice before voting for a party that tells them that AGW theory is a crock.

    4. There is less and less actual farm labor. The remaining farm labor is being done more and more by backpackers or work migrants under Government schemes. These people do not get the vote. Labor is losing out on potential voters by allowing these classes of worker to persist. OTOH, the crops would not be harvested at all if the farmers had to pay city rates for hard labor country work. Today’s city folk don’t want to work hard. They want to be bankers or pop stars. The crops would rot. The farmers would go broke.

    5. My view is that quite a few farmers have gone from saying: ‘climate change is a yet another urban crock’, to being vaguely concerned that it might not be a crock, to being outright terrified that they are going to lose their farms because of AGW. The thing that has made this happen is the Murray Darling Basin Drought. IMHO, in relation to this group of farmers, the Nationals are playing with electoral fire. I haven’t had a look lately, but I imagine the NFF is quietly at loggerheads with the Nationals on this issue.

    6. I notice from time to time the gut, almost instinctive, dislike that some city Labor folk have for farmers. (Many of whom return the feeling with some fervor). This gut feeling pops up from time to time amongst Poll Bludgers. IMHO this historical hostility on both sides means that Labor will have some difficulty ‘courting’ the farmers. As I have detailed above, for demographic reasons, this is less and less of a problem for Labor. OTOH, there may be a historical opportunity for Labor: Will rural voters bale out on the conservative parties because of their inability to address AGW in a coherent way?

  23. Boerwar@120:
    [Some thoughts on ‘courting the farmers’. Some complexities for folk to think about:
    (snip)]

    Great post, Boerwar. Very good analysis.

    One minor point – could you expand on this comment:

    [he different sources of income may cause conflicts of economic interest within the family unit. For example, cheap labor for farms (through, say, WorkChoices) might also mean a reduction in income for the woman working in the town.]

    I can’t see the connection, sorry. Why does cheap labour on farms mean a reduction in income for the woman working in the town?

  24. Boerwar@120:

    Another thing, although backpackers don’t vote, and thus can’t help Labor (or the Lib/Nats, for that matter) they contribute a great deal to our economy, so I understand.

    And don’t forget the grey nomads – there are supposed to be a lot of them doing not just crop picking, but working in the packing sheds, doing admin work and so on. Hard to work out who they would support, their age cohort suggests Libs, but then again they are often in receipt of government “largesse” in the form of pensions, so on income levels might be Labor inclined. It would be good to see someone like Poss do a study of their voting intentions, if the data were ever gathered.

  25. Don

    Thanks for feedback.

    My thinking was: the farmer needs cheap labor in order to make his farm more profitable (or less unprofitable). His wife, who is working as paid labor in the town, wants as much for her labor as she can get. Any system-wide regulation (eg, say, WorkChoices) that decreases the price of labor will favor him and work against her. He is primarily an employer. She is an employee. However, as a fellow-farm owner, she is also an employer, so it can get a bit more complicated than I was implying.

  26. Don

    Good point about the grey nomads. They come from a generation that was prepared to get stuck in and provide good value at hard yakka. They are also mobile, which helps when crops ripen in various districts over time. In terms of their votes, I suggest that there are probably two main classes of them, and that their interests would vary a bit: one lot would depend on pensions; the other lot would be paying their own way.

    If Possum et al are right, they are a Coalition stronghold, and, like the disappearing farmers, they are attriting away from old age.

  27. Sean Parnell with probably the first attempt post election by the Queensland Media Gallery to make a genuine assessment of the current state of play in Queensland politics.

    [LIBERAL National Party leader John-Paul Langbroek seized on someone’s observation this week that had the Bligh government gone full term, and not called an early election for March, Queenslanders would only now be in the first week of the 2009 campaign.

    The implication was clear: after the Labor mates scandals and corruption fears of the past fortnight, not to mention the budget decisions made earlier, Anna Bligh would not have won a September 5 election.

    Clearly, if you believe Langbroek, the Premier tricked Queenslanders into keeping Labor in power and her government would fall if votes were being cast now.

    But so much has changed since Labor won a fifth term on March 21 — even if the losing LNP candidate Andrea Caltabiano is still in court contesting the result in Chatsworth — it is difficult to make any definitive statement on what would have happened had the poll been delayed six months.

    Certainly, the state’s economy is so dire that voters might feel they had nothing left to lose by voting LNP. They may be especially angered by Bligh’s mostly unexpected decision, in the June 16 budget, to scrap the 8.35c a litre fuel subsidy and move to sell off several government-owned corporations.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25930353-5006786,00.html

  28. Miranda Devine says “Bring it on” to a DD threat, as being the coalition’s best chance of winning government! ROTFL
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/bring-it-on-labor-pull-that-trigger-20090814-el50.html

    She refers to Bob Carter, David Carter, Steven Fielding and the usual cast of anti global warming skeptics, who proudly proclaim their scientific expertise, but all turn out to have no training or research record in atmospheric modelling. Does she read her own columns? Does she think anyone else believes them? Either she doesn’t, or she must really hate Malcolm Turnbull.

  29. THM @ 99 + 110

    I agree wholeheartedly with your comments. However, just keep in mind that it is no coincidence that Frank rhymes with wank.

  30. Boerwar 120

    I think that is a very accurate summary of the situation for that tiny over-subsidised demographic, our remaining farmers. I also please guilty to being one of those PBes who dislikes them. I would liek to explain why.

    I was not born prejudiced against farmers. I was born in regional Queensland and have spent half my career working for government in regions. I have dealt with a lot of farmers through work, and also analysed the effects of what they do. It is unfair to generalise; there are good and bad individuals in every group. I have met some wonderful people in rural areas. Yet, overall I have been lied to by more farmers than almost any other group, even city real estate developers. Their isolated lives are often attractive to people who are independant and hard working, but in the worst cases reclusive, paranoid and peopel who woudl have great difficulty living in a city. Many are simply selfish, and often feel justified doing anything, legal or not, to keep the family farm going. They are well organised, have great lobby groups, and are massively subsidised at the expense of the rest of us. Their contribution to the nation is far LESS then most people think – under 3% of GDP. We are often supposed to admire them, but I don’t. I feel sorry for some in areas like the Riverland, who are effectively being wiped out by teh actions of those upstream. But in a sense that case illustrates teh problem. Overall, farmign is a business, not a noble profession, and most of its practitioners are just as self interested as any other business.

  31. [Certainly, the state’s economy is so dire that voters might feel they had nothing left to lose by voting LNP. ]
    And how much more effective would be the video clipping of Springborg questioning the reality of the GFC? How much more focus would have been placed on the LNP’s lack of economic credibility?

  35. I don’t normally post here but I’d like to offer my agreement with what Heysen Molotov said. I love this site and read it on a daily basis, but the constant sniping between a few people here has rendered it nigh unreadable.

  36. I second Zedar’s comment as a daily reader but seldom if ever commenter. The sexist attacks on Wong and Giz Watson recently were particular low points.

  37. [but the constant sniping between a few people here has rendered it nigh unreadable.]

    Agree. There was much fire and heat on the previous thread but very little light.

  38. Another agreement with Heysen at 99. I’m not quite a silent part of the majority, it just looks that way when threads get 1000 posts long in a couple of days, usually with the same old stuff. I read most threads, but it gets a bit much when I’ve been busy at work for a couple of days and return to an enormous thread that’ll have a few dozen posts reading and heaps of partisan flaming in between. Drop the hate, folks… please?

  40. Bird of Paradox

    I take responsibility for a lot of the flaming on the previous thread.
    I, like THM, had grown weary of the Labor chants and name calling and started reflecting it back at them, hoping to bore them into stopping.

    Then some posters refused to acknowledge simple facts like: There had been no vote on the RET, the Senate couldn’t have voted to split the RET and CPRS (they are already split), etc.

    And again I apologise for wasting people’s time, but I felt it was best to try and stop untruths being perpetuated.

  43. Steve
    I agree that it failed to stop them, however had I persisted I think it would have forced change on this blog. Whether by William introducing new ‘rules’ or by simply banning everyone in the Flame war.
    I do feel that Frank, GG, and Vera could be stopped using my ‘method’ had I persisted.

  44. The best way of stopping a flame war is to extract oneself from it. Leave those conducting it to agree with one another. The flame war soon ends when there is no-one disagreeing.

  46. [I do feel that Frank, GG, and Vera could be stopped using my ‘method’ had I persisted.]

    That is what is known as delusion, Astro. There’s room for all political positions on these blogs if people just say what they have to say and keep away from personal attack.

  47. Heysen, guess what, its not compulsory to come here! I agree that the bickering can be tiresome, but the good stuff outweighs it. And its up to William not you to decide when things have gone too far.

    What I do wish for is more conservative posters who can give us insights into their plight and are willing to genuinely reflect on their situation

  48. [What’s all this about the Aboriginals setting up a First Nations Party?]

    So sorry glen, should they have asked for permission first from massa??

  50. Steve

    Don’t lecture me about personal attacks.
    Go an lecture the people on this blog who do it consistently.
    There are rules for Labor supporters on this blog and different rules for everyone else.

    I, for one, won’t play by your rules.

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