Hendo off the hook

No Morgan poll on voting intention this week, although they do have a survey of 687 respondents on carbon emissions trading schemes. Apart from that:

• Paul Henderson’s Labor government has survived today’s no-confidence debate in the Northern Territory parliament, disappointing those hoping for a precedent-setting no-confidence motion and possibly an election to tide them over until the double whammy in South Australia and Tasmania next March. Nelson independent Gerry Wood announced he had reached an agreement to back Labor on confidence supply in the interests of “stable government”. Wood’s decision rendered irrelevant the defection of Macdonnell MP Alison Anderson, who deprived Labor of its one-seat majority and appeared ready to back the Country Liberal Party to bring down the government.

• Margaret May, the long-serving, low-profile Liberal member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Gold Coast News reports she is “battling serious health concerns”. Newspaper reports have been taking for granted that the opening will be of interest to Peter Dutton, who went down to the wire in his outer northern Brisbane seat of Dickson in 2007 and has been further damaged by the redistribution proposal.

• Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports NSW Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell is being “pressured” to purge parliamentary ranks of dead wood/members standing in the way of his sources’ promotion prospects. Those named are deputy leader and North Shore MP Jillian Skinner, Wakehurst MP Brad Hazzard, Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, Castle Hill MP Michael Richardson and Cronulla MP Malcolm Kerr. Skinner, Hazzard and Merton are named by Clennell as supporters of O’Farrell, who is said to harbour ongoing concerns about the leadership ambitions of Manly MP Michael Baird. Baird and Willoughby MP Gladys Berejiklian are said to be possible successors to Skinner in the deputy’s position.

• The hearing into Liberal National Party candidate Andrea Caltabiano’s challenge against her defeat by Labor’s Steve Kilburn in Chatsworth at the Queensland state election in March has begun, with lawyers to sum up their cases on Monday. The LNP claims to have found enough routine-sounding anomalies to justify overturning Kilburn’s 74-vote win or having a new election declared, although the Electoral Commission of Queensland argues otherwise. Mark Oberhardt of the Courier-Mail reports a judgement is expected next month.

• Shawn O’Brien offers a beginners guide to fixed term reform for federal parliament at Online Opinion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,007 comments on “Hendo off the hook”

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  1. Diogenes, I think you’ll find that the RE businesses are craving certainty by now. Very hard to work out what is going on when the opposition parties are playing games with your livelihood.

  3. steve

    I agree. I’ve seen a few interviewed and plenty are going off-shore. That’s why it should be passed as soon as possible and uncoupling it is the fastest way to do so. Of course if they had Psephos’ clairvoyance, they would be resting more easily.

    I think Psephos is underestimating the problems Turnbull will have getting the Libs and Nats to vote for an ETS.

  4. I think the most interesting thing about the Newspoll on the ETS is the strong divergence of views between what National Party voters think and what NP Senators are doing and saying. Farming voters are seriously taken for granted by their elected representatives. I wonder how Labor or the G’s can start to eat into that constituency?

  5. [I think the most interesting thing about the Newspoll on the ETS is the strong divergence of views between what National Party voters think and what NP Senators are doing and saying. Farming voters are seriously taken for granted by their elected representatives. I wonder how Labor or the G’s can start to eat into that constituency?]

    Considering how Farmers traditionally view the Greens (you know the usual stuff I like to remnd them of), I reckon the ALP should really start courting the farmer vote as really they have a similar history in regards to shearers etc.

  6. Not everybody is in favour of RET legislation, it’s not as though every one can turn up to vote for an ETS without some sort of opposition forces being miffed.

    [Now industry had bitten back. The Australian Industry Greenhouse Network has called on the Government to effectively abandon the new RET scheme.

    [In its submission on the Government’s emissions trading green paper, the Network – which represents 14 industry associations in mining, energy supply and manufacturing – warns that the RET will crowd-out the adoption of economically efficient investment in new generation “for the next 20 years” and “defeat trading as the heart of emissions reduction” in power production.

    All available modelling, the AIGN adds, demonstrates that the RET scheme is not a least-cost approach.

    The Network says it accepts that the Howard MRET and similar State schemes have created property rights in renewables investment that need to be respected and that the created capacity adds up to about 13,000 GWh a year. If the Government won’t do away with the scheme, AIGN argues, it should be restricted to 13,000 GWh – versus 45,000 GWh proposed – and terminated in 2020.

    The Network also argues for the scheme’s subsidy to be capped at $40,000 per GWh and reduced each year by the equivalent of the emissions trading price. It calls for energy-intensive manufacturers to be excluded from liability under the scheme.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Energy-industry-green-with-envy-JS4B7?opendocument&src=rss

  8. Listening to the Liberals over the past 36 hours it seems to be a misleading argument of decouple and the RET will pass. I doubt that there is any guarantee that it is that simple.

  9. Who cares what Turnbull thinks? or the way he does things?

    There’s no chance that he’ll be Leader of the Opp in a few months(if that)

    The new guy is were it’s at

    Who that is and how will he act?

    That’s the Lib’s worry, although Kev’s already won this round and is working on the next

  12. Crickey told us recently:

    [The link between the RET bills and the CPRS bill is courtesy of a definition in the section of the RET bill dealing with exemptions, where industries that will be exempted from the renewable energy target are defined with reference to the CPRS legislation. Without a CPRS Act , the definition has no meaning. The “delinking” would be an entirely simple matter of pasting the CPRS definition into the RET bill.]

    How come everyone has there own peculiar simple solution?

  13. Frank, I think the historical animosity of farmers towards Labor will be hard to change. But the cockies are very poorly served by the LNP. Definitely worth a whirl.

  14. Keith is not my real name,

    Yes, that’s important. But I don’t think it will be an improvement.

    Will the next Coalition leader have any more control over the joint Party Room, or even over their own? Still a very good chance of the Liberals folding in November, but if they harden up then they will really harden up.

    Then an election. Whatever happens to the Coalition parties there is then a real chance of Bob Brown holding the whole balance of power (don’t see many Greens crossing the floor; they have discipline, too).

    That would leave an economically courageous deal with the Greens…

    I have to say, I’m glad that I won’t be any of the party leaders for the next year. No fun…

  15. enough whining about the ret. if the greens or libs were so desparate they could have voted to pass the cprs.
    the libs will fold on both in nov. they dont want an election, that’s for sure

  16. [I wonder how Labor or the G’s can start to eat into that constituency?]
    Hardly half a mouthful.

    The only thing that can remove a Nat from a rural seat is a pine box or a strong local, independent candidate. Of course with the Nat’s continued disregard of their electorate’s interests you may see more of these popping up…

  18. [In NSW us rural folks have Country Labor. Have had the sticker on my fridge for years ]

    WA Labor also has Country Labor, which at the recent ALP State Conference the then Chairperson, who is now a Nationals in waiting Vince Catania, failed to attend their AGM. 🙂

  19. vera,

    I don’t suppose Country Labor could come into town and run the corporate mafia out of Sussex St?

    Now that would bring the rural votes tumbling in…

  20. I think Psephos is right: Kevin Rudd really wants the legislation passed. He will accept minor amendments from the rabble and get on with it.

    His only problem is that MT may have enough vainglory to refuse to pass it. Even then, Malcolm will be “persuaded” to pass it.

    If the rabble is recalcitrant then the PM will go to the people. For pollbludgers that would be a treat. Let’s hope it won’t come to that.

  22. Hawthorn,

    See you later.

    Just watched George Gently. It’s up there with the best British police drama. And the sergeant was drinking my favourite Newcastle Brown!

  25. Viggo

    [If the rabble is recalcitrant then the PM will go to the people. For pollbludgers that would be a treat. Let’s hope it won’t come to that.]

    I think you should be banned for that comment. 😉

    A DD would be PB Heaven and give us the best CRPS-RET with the Greens having BOP in the Senate.

    I would even reconsider whether there might be a God after all if that happened.

  27. A bit’n, titan.

    An alleged biting incident by Gold Coast fullback William Zillman has soured a 22-14 victory over South Sydney which guaranteed the Titans their first NRL finals appearance and a possible home semi-final.

    Zillman was put on report in the 12th minute at ANZ Stadium after Souths winger Jamie Simpson accused him of biting his right forearm in a tackle.]

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/sport/titans-defeat-rabbitohs-in-a-victory-with-bite-20090814-el9u.html

  29. Climate Change Minister Wong is thus lucky he was so far away. I wouldn’t put that past the Heffalump at all.

    And then she would have had to have dealt with a manslaughter charge right when she’s so busy at work…

    (I think I’ll stop there. Definitely off-colour now)

  30. Leigh,

    “An election promise failing to pass the Senate”? What sort of a disconnect is that?

    I suppose this will start some sort of palaver about “mandate. Sigh.

  38. The NRL final series is a farce. 7th and 8th will play 2nd and 1st in the first week. That means if 1st and 2nd win (as should be the case this year) the entire process becomes hopelessly flawed. It will make zero difference who wins between 3rd to 6th in the first week. So it won’t matter if the Titans finish 3rd, get a home game and win.

    Former coach Warren Ryan designed a system to supersede the McIntyre System that was very good and far superior, but of course has never seen the light of day because Ryan and not the NRL thought of it.

  43. Go Lindsay 🙂

    [thewetmaleTanner has a go at greens for throwing a “tantrum” like children and angling for a DD. C’mon Lindsay, you’re more than just a pot #lateline]

  44. Leigh: looked very cuddable. Not her most asp-like performance

    Lindsay: totally in charge

    Tony: a nightingale spirit in a golden cage? I like his honesty, severly limited as it is by party solidarity (snigger)

    Overall: 3-1 to Lindsay, better than Ireland did against Australia.

  47. [Cap and Trade to cost 2 million jobs and send jobs overseas]
    oops stumbled onto FOX doing a channell surf before bed
    g’night Johnboy.

  49. I’m really starting to get fed up with PB. This is turning into an ALP discussion forum -particularly ALP Right. We often here about the “silent majority” on PB. If there are any Green or heck even COALition supporters out there please start posting. This is getting boring – the ALPers just constantly bombard us with their lines. The Left almost needs to work out a roster system so there’s always someone to keep the bastards honest. The vast majority of bloggers that regularly post on this site are more or less sensible and rashional but there are two trouble makers. Critisizing your oponents policies is one thing, even delving into a little cheekyness (like capitalizing COALition) but when it’s all you ever do it’s just sad. There is one poster in particular that takes every single issue as an opertunity to demonize his/her opponents. I don’t care if William deletes this I just want everyone to see during the interveining period that I am fed up and will probably find a new home if things don’t change. Come on silent majority, spring to life!

  50. [I’m really starting to get fed up with PB. (snip rest of dummyspit)!]

    Don’t let the door slam on your rear end as you leave 🙂

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