Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey shows Labor’s two-party lead at a commanding 59-41, up from 57-43 last week and 56-44 the week before. Also featured are questions on whether the Liberals should support (51 per cent) or oppose (20 per cent) the government’s plans for an emissions trading scheme, whether the federal government should take over health services from the states (62 per cent support, 11 per cent oppose), whether they should take over all hospital services from the states (57 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose), how much support the government should provide for Australians who get into various kinds of trouble overseas, whether 16 and 17 year olds should be allowed to vote (13 per cent yes, 79 per cent no), and whether respondents feel like they’re being worked too hard (yes). Elsewhere:

• Mia Handshin has unexpectedly withdrawn from her bid to win Christopher Pyne’s Adelaide seat of Sturt, where she fell 0.9 per cent short in 2007. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail said the announcement came “within hours” of her being queried by the paper over her family’s involvement with the real estate group of former Entrepreneur of the Year Cathy Jayne Pearce, the collapse of which has cost investors more than $20 million. However, Michael Owen of The Australian reports Handshin’s withdrawal has “sparked speculation she will contest an eastern suburbs seat, Hartley, at the March state election, and the Hartley MP, Grace Portolesi, 41, will run in Sturt against Mr Pyne at the next federal election” (UPDATE: The ABC reports Portolesi denying she is interested in federal politics). A “Labor hardhead” quoted by Christian Kerr in the same paper described Handshin as “a potential premier”. Kerr said there had been earlier suggestions from the Labor camp that Handshin should replace perennial back-bencher Vini Ciccarello in the state seat of Norwood. However, with Ciccarello’s nomination confirmed this “seems out in the short term”, and former member Greg Crafter hopes to use his “clout in the branches” to eventually secure the seat for his son Sam, “an executive with gas giant Santos and a former adviser to Premier Mike Rann”. It should be noted that every seat named is none too safe for Labor: Sturt has been won by the party twice since its creation in 1949, most recently in 1969, Hartley was gained from the Liberals in the 2006 landslide, and Norwood was won narrowly when the Rann government came to power in 2002 and gave Labor its smallest swing in Adelaide in 2006.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews provides complete lists of candidates for the contested Liberal preselections in Wannon, Higgins, Aston and the state seat of Sandringham. Higgins and Sandringham are two-horse races, the former between front-runner Kelly O’Dwyer and Andrew Abercrombie, the latter between incumbent Murray Thompson and challenger Margaret Fitzherbert. In Wannon, the previously discussed Daniel Tehan, Rod Nockles, Louise Staley, Stephen Mitchell, Hugh Koch, Matt Makin, Elizabeth Matuschka and Katrina Rainsford are joined by Simon Price (unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur, previously mentioned as an aspirant for McArthur’s old seat of Corangamite) and one David Clark. In Aston, Nick McGowan, Sue McMillan, Darren Pearce and Alan Tudge are joined by proverbial bad penny Ken Aldred and a squadron of little-known contenders: Neil Angus, Terry Barnes, Michael Flynn, Michael Kabos and James Matheson.

• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports that former WA Police Union president Mike Dean has joined the Liberal Party, but will not as earlier rumoured contest the seat of Hasluck at the next federal election. Dean says he has decided not to proceed due to personal issues, but does not rule out a future career in state politics. Robert Taylor of The West Australian reported last month that state Labor MPs John Quigley and Ben Wyatt said Dean had asked them for support in winning Labor preselection for Swan. He told Spagnolo that some in the ALP had “wrongfully presumed he was one of them” and that he had “broken some hearts I didn’t expect to break”.

• The Sunday Times also reports that Gallop-Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan “has delayed her decision on whether to join Kevin Rudd in Canberra”. It is open knowledge that the option of contesting Canning is available to her, but she is believed to be weighing up the option of staying in state politics with a view to assuming the leadership.

• Michael Stedman of The Mercury reports that Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett has floated the possibility of publicly funded election campaigns and spending caps for state lower house elections. His comments were in response to complaints by Peter Whish-Wilson, Greens candidate for Windermere during the May periodical upper house elections, about the stringent spending cap of $12,000 which exists for upper house elections.

• Speaking of the Tasmanian Legislative Council, Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin pulled off a historic win for the party in Saturday’s Pembroke by-election, which you can read all about here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,380 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  8. Let me repeat again. If Therese has done or is doing what Lucy is doing, all hell will break lose. What a double standard pig.

  11. [If Therese has done or is doing what Lucy is doing, all hell will break lose. What a double standard pig.]

    You’re not wrong

  12. [If Therese has done or is doing what Lucy is doing, all hell will break lose. What a double standard pig.]

    Which is why Rudd has wisely not done one of these.

  16. [Polyquats, I did not mean to sound patronising. ]
    that’s ok. You posted late at night, I posted early in the morning. Obviously not a good combination.
    Thanks for organising re Judith.

  18. From Punch,

    “Human Services and Financial Services Minister Chris Bowen says Mr Turnbull has had several weeks to come up with evidence on the role both he and senior Liberal, Senator Eric Abetz, played in the affair.

    “Now, unless he’s backed those claims up with evidence to the auditor-general and unless the auditor-general makes a similar finding, then Mr Turnbull’s position is now untenable,” Mr Bowen told reporters in Canberra”.

    The presssure ratchets up again.

    http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/live-blog-heat-on-turnbull-over-ozcar-affair/

  22. This is a highly damaging story for Turnbull and the Liberals.

    Grech is a goner according to Ullman and I agree. Turnbull sacrificed him – cold blooded. bloody hell!

  25. What a bunch of idiots. They talked about the email was being faked on Monday 22/6/09. We concluded here at PB that email was fake on the afternoon Friday 19/6/09.

  34. LOL! Turnbull mentions Jeffrey Archer – a convicted criminal and former conservative politician – at the start of the show. 😀

  36. [I haven’t heard them all series.]
    If you listen carefully you can occassionally hear what sounds some fans singing Yellow Submarine, but it is actually the Barmy Army singing “You all live in a convict colony” to the Australian fans.

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