Reuters Poll Trend: 55.8-44.2

The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.

Apart from that:

• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.

• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.

• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.

• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,238 comments on “Reuters Poll Trend: 55.8-44.2”

Comments Page 3 of 45
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  1. Can anyone tell me what the “Humpty Dumpty Effect” is? Dennis writes a very factual analysis of Turnbull’s plight under the headline “Malcolm Turnbull risks Humpty Dumpty effect” but there is no reference to it in the article.

    Is he saying that MT is a broken egg and that the Libs shouldn’t waste their time getting all their horse and all their men to try and put Malcolm together again?

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25725754-601,00.html

  2. A quick google:

    [Remember that the Humpty Dumpty Effect occurs when doing our best is still not good enough, when more of the same only digs us into a deeper hole, and when the sum of our solutions does not balance the weight of our problems. In spite of the finest intentions and much hard work, things slide more in the direction of for-worse, not for-better. If the Humpty Dumpty Effect continues too long, we reach a tipping point from which recovery is expensive and difficult, if not impossible.]

  4. This quote here shows that either Malcolm Turnbull is incompetent or he had descended into some fanciful universe of his own where it was only just a bad dream and that the rightful order of things will soon be restored!

    [“I never raised the matter of the email, I didn’t refer to it, I didn’t quote from it.

    “The criticism I made of the prime minister was based entirely on the sworn evidence given by the Treasury official before the Senate.

    “I didn’t publish an email or wave it around or refer to it.

    “We will turn it around on election day, that’s our commitment. We should win the next election and we will win the next election.

    “If Australians want to see their economy managed in a way that will not place an intolerable burden of debt and deficit on the shoulders of their children and their children after, if they want to see their economy managed responsibly, they should vote for us.”]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25726884-601,00.html

    News Ltd seem to be putting some distance between themselves and Turnbull at the moment but are determined to hold the line on propping up the Coalition which is currently in total disarray and have been since the election!

  5. [Scientists discover 3 new Aussie dinosaurs]

    I thought we have been discussing LNP pollies for quite while.

  8. Read this in an article in the West Australian:

    [There is an argument that the Senate’s deferment of the ETS legislation last month was the first hurdle for a double-D, that the delay equalled a failure to pass.
    If the coalition and at least one of the minor party senators vote against passage of the legislation in August, the Government could ask Governor-General Quentin Bryce in late September (three months after the ETS Bill was deferred) to dissolve both Houses, for an election in November, arguing its Bill has been rejected twice.]

    This completely ignores most of s 57 of the Constitution. Even if the deferment could be classified as a ‘failure to pass’, the Senate rejecting the bills in August would not meet the requirements of s 57 as it would require identical bills to be passed by the HoR 3 months after the ‘failure to pass’ (i.e. no earlier than 25 September 2009) and then rejected/failed to pass.

    The Senate vote would need to be no earlier than late September, not in August. I don’t understand why the writers of articles don’t at least try and come to grips with the technicalities.

  10. SA Libs in total disarray. Unlike the Federal Libs? Not happy with a bit of media scrutiny eh?

    [THE troubled South Australian branch of the Liberal Party has for the second time in a week tried to ban the media from Parliament House as tensions rise over tomorrow’s leadership spill, called on by embattled leader Martin Hamilton-Smith.
    House of Assembly Speaker Jack Snelling today confirmed the Liberals had asked for the media to be locked out of Parliament House during tomorrow’s vote for the leader and deputy positions.

    This follows farcical scenes at a shadow cabinet meeting on Monday, when the leader’s chief of staff John Lewis and media adviser Craig Clarke asked the media to leave a corridor at Parliament House leading to the meeting room. When the media refused, parliamentary security was called and a representative of the clerk’s office ordered the media to leave the corridors. Doors were then shut and a guard placed on them to prevent MPs from being filmed or asked questions.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25727141-601,00.html

  11. OO editorial

    [The only original content Crikey’s writers often offer are rants about what they read in The Australian.]

    The only original content The Australian’s writers often offer are rants about what they read in The Age or SMH.

    [The Australian’s sister publication, The Wall Street Journal.]

    Ha! “My new stepsister is brilliant, therefore I am brilliant too!!”

    [And too often it (Crikey) escapes the… scrutiny of the Press Council.]

    Pot, meet Kettle.

  12. someone should do a thesis on why the libs are so bad at being in opposition. I think the born to rule mentality makes it impossible for them to function when they are not in power. even the opposition leaders that suceeded like howard and kennett had previously failed and came in on the back of a unpopular govt and leader

  13. [the scrutiny of the Press Council]

    And what high standards that august body strives to uphold. One day I’d like to see the MSM explain why journalists are viewed as the slimiest profession other than used car salesmen. Until they realise why everyone detests them, they will never improve.

  14. [One day I’d like to see the MSM explain why journalists are viewed as the slimiest profession other than used car salesmen. Until they realise why everyone detests them, they will never improve.]

    Dio, there seems to be a “race to the bottom” happening at the moment. They are probably seeing just how low they can go by the next poll to determine ratings by profession.

    Sorta like a “limbo rock” competition. “How low can you go”. lol

  15. [One day I’d like to see the MSM explain why journalists are viewed as the slimiest profession other than used car salesmen]

    One day I’d like to see the MSM explain why they should be called journalists

  16. Brilliant-Investigative-Journalism Watch

    …from the annals of the News Home Page:

    [* MICHAEL Jackson’s family confirms funeral plans, denies report that tickets would cost $30.

    Video: Jackson’s home movies

    * Nine star Ferguson defects to Seven
    NINE personality Mark Ferguson has switched to Seven days after his new show takes ratings dive.

    * Celebrity: News and gossip Schoolgirl raped in trendy city street
    A 14-YEAR-OLD girl was dragged from a footpath by a group of men and raped in a car while she was on her way home from school.

    *’This is my town’: cop ‘beat tourists’
    A FORMER cop is accused of bashing three tourists while yelling: “This is my town.”

    * Escape: Latest travel news

    * Crisis wipes millions from Buffett charity
    WORLD’S richest man gets millions less from 2nd richest – and the downturn is to blame.

    Share prices: Check the latest Breaking News 01:42pm Poker star in court after win
    01:40pm Baptist minister’s son jailed for rapes
    01:18pm ‘Richest man’ considering BHP assets
    01:07pm Five arrested over $20m drug seizure
    01:01pm African leaders agree, but have no power
    12:53pm ‘Most successful’ entrepreneur dies
    12:52pm Faulkner: North Korea isolating itself
    12:28pm Dollar tanks on US jobs data
    More breaking news
    Also in today

    * ShowBUZZ
    Rihanna likes tattoos. But the R’n’B singer is in trouble for inking without a licence

    * Geeky holidays
    Jedi training camp and Silicon Valley among the world’s geekiest destinations

    * Fleeced designs
    Aussie designers unveil their “classic” swimsuits
    The original swimsuits]

  17. Keane compares the US and Oz ETS’s. Obama wins handsomely.

    [The ACES emissions targets (the Americans win on acronyms alone), based on 1990 levels, are 17-23%, compared to 4-24% under the CPRS; based on 2000 levels, which the Rudd Government uses, the comparison is worse: 27-32% under ACES, 5-25% here).

    Trade-exposed industries will receive a maximum of 11% of permits under ACES, with industry bearing the risk that their emissions will be greater than the level for which they have been allocated permits. Under the CPRS, EITEs will receive 28% of permits and there will be no cap]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/07/03/coalitions-ets-position-threatened-by-us-moves/

  18. Ltep (67) –

    Are you suggesting that the electoral reform bill was introduced first in the Senate? Surely it passed through the House first, given that it was a government-sponsored bill (I was away at the time, so I am happy to be corrected). If so, and it was passed again by the House and rejected by the Senate in August, it would meet the criteria for a DD.

    Unless I’m missing something….

  19. I might be paranoid, but there must be someone from The Australian monitoring PB and other blog sites at the moment.

    I have had another bug inserted on my computer and it has only happened when I log on to the OZ web site.

    Just clicked on to their home page from a link and got redirected to this.

    [Hey, it worked !
    The SSL/TLS-aware Apache webserver was
    successfully installed on this website. ]

    Yet the Address bar at the top is showing this!

    [http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/]

    If the person responsible is reading this, then get this rubbish off my computer pronto or I will refer the matter to the AFP and let them analyse my computer.

    The OZ IT people would have got my IP address from my comments on their blog pages so it will be easy to trace.

    A while back, I had a bug inserted so that every time I logged on to the OZ web site, my Browser crashed. It only happened with the OZ site and no other. But it is probably only my imagination and not because I have been a constant critic of their miserable excuse for a news outlet.

  20. [Are you suggesting that the electoral reform bill was introduced first in the Senate? Surely it passed through the House first, given that it was a government-sponsored bill (I was away at the time, so I am happy to be corrected). If so, and it was passed again by the House and rejected by the Senate in August, it would meet the criteria for a DD.

    Unless I’m missing something]

    You are. Government bills can be introduced in either house. In this case as the responsible minister (Special Minister of State, as the time Senator Faulkner) was in the Senate the bill was introduced there.

  21. [If the person responsible is reading this, then get this rubbish off my computer pronto or I will refer the matter to the AFP and let them analyse my computer.]

    You need an ad blocker.

  23. BB, there’s something really strange going on. I just refreshed the page and was reading your post when the page suddenly blipped and all the gravatars disappeared.

  25. And don’t fall for the “We will scan your computer for free” shareware stuff. Purchase a reputable virus checker and ad blocker, from a shop if possible.

  26. ltep @ 104

    [I don’t understand why the writers of articles don’t at least try and come to grips with the technicalities.]

    Could it possibly be because they get paid the same either way?

  27. Refreshed again and they reappeared. I’m pretty sure now that someone is reading my hard drive from another source or something similar!

  30. [Get a virus checker. Serious advice.]

    I’ve got the latest AVG edition, Add Blocker and Firewall installed but I think they are easily bypassed by someone who really knows what they are doing.

    I only log on to news sites and a handful of blogs and a reasonable person wouldn’t expect to get hit upon by “Australia’s leading news provider”? Would they?

    Not a very happy chappy!

  31. Also using the latest Firefox!

    BtW Possum, it looked suspiciously like Shannahan was feeding off you for content in his article today!

  32. Alternative to AVG is avast! Home Edition- it’s free. I find it friendlier than AVG. It updates itself daily.

  35. Malcolm says the Rabble “Should win the next election…” . Why?

    Born to rule? Superior policies? What?

  36. Grog, my monte carlo sims turned up 100 as the most likely result.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/07/03/election-simulation-alp-17-seats/

    They have Nielsen aggregated in as well – which pulled things back a bit from just using the Newspoll data.

    A lot of the individual simulation results show a vast number of currently held Coalition seats becoming marginal on any swing around the 2% mark. The distribution of the margins of currently held seats isnt good for the Coalition this election, or probably the one after.

  37. I downloaded “hijack this” a day or two ago when someone suggested it when I got the first OZ bug. Haven’t used it yet because it could compromise my system if I make a mistake with it but it seemed to identify the bug.

    Somehow the first bug has mysteriously disappeared to be replaced now, by this new one!

    Thanks, Dario. I have used it previously and might have to install it again to try.

  39. Why in the heck would Labor be running Karen Brown in Stirling?

    Running someone whose main claim to fame is losing a safe Labor state seat would not seem to be a bright move against a marginal-seat member who has already fended off one high-profile challenger.

  40. [Ignore the pop-ups. They go away after a few seconds if unattended.]

    Not good enough for me I’m afraid 😉

  41. [A lot of the individual simulation results show a vast number of currently held Coalition seats becoming marginal on any swing around the 2% mark. The distribution of the margins of currently held seats isn’t good for the Coalition this election, or probably the one after.]

    If a similar thing happens next election as happened in 2007, with Labor on 55-45 just prior to the election and there is a movement of 2% towards Labor like what happened to the Coalition in Nov 2007, then it will be a massacre for the Libs.

  44. [If a similar thing happens next election as happened in 2007, with Labor on 55-45 just prior to the election and there is a movement of 2% towards Labor like what happened to the Coalition in Nov 2007, then it will be a massacre for the Libs.]

    Encumbency can certainly be a big benefit if you don’t have a millstone around your neck (a la WorkChoices). I think the economy will be the biggest factor. Should we fare relatively well in the next year, expect a healthy increase in majority. If not, it will be an interesting election.

  46. [This may be useful to reduce the pop-up time. Maybe you can set it to zero?]

    Can’t be bothered going back to Avast. Happy with AVG at the moment.

  48. Labor’s not exactly surging ahead despite Turnbull’s troubles; I think this is due to continuing concerns over the economy, debt, etc. Hopefully, now that Turnbull’s cred’s been destroyed, these will begin to turn in Labor’s favour too.

  49. [Only 546 sample]

    I don’t think it will matter. It would be pretty close to the mark even if they had a larger sample. Pretty well mirrors the others!

Comments are closed.

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