Morgan: 58-42/54.5-45.5

Unpredictable Roy Morgan has unloaded two very different sets of poll results: one using its usual face-to-face methodology, but based on one week’s sample rather than the recently more usual two, and the other a phone poll in which respondents were also asked about leadership preference, contrary to normal Morgan practice. The face-to-face poll is from 999 respondents, and shows Labor’s lead narrowing from 60-40 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is down 0.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, while the Coalition is up a quite healthy 3.5 per cent to a still not-healthy 37.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 8 per cent.

However, the phone poll has Labor’s two-party lead at a more modest 54.5-45.5, from primary votes of 45 per cent Labor, 40.5 per cent Coalition and 7.5 per cent Greens. At present, a dedicated page for the phone poll result tells us only that Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 60.5 per cent to 26.5 per cent; that Rudd’s approval rating is 57.5 per cent; and that Turnbull’s approval rating is 43 per cent. Perhaps it will be fleshed out with more information at a later time.

Two other pieces of news:

• It seems Andrew Wilkie will run as an independent candidate for Denison at next year’s Tasmanian state election. Wilkie is the former Office of National Assessments analyst who quit over the Howard government’s actions before the Iraq war, and subsequently ran as a Greens candidate against John Howard in Bennelong in 2004 and as Bob Brown’s Tasmanian Senate running mate in 2007.

• A beleagured British Labour Party is considering sweeping electoral reforms, including an elected upper house. House of Commons reforms might presumably include some kind of preferential voting, which Britain’s three-plus party system badly needs, or more radically proportional representation, with which Britons have become familiar through elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, its members of European Parliament, and local government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,320 comments on “Morgan: 58-42/54.5-45.5”

Comments Page 4 of 27
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  1. The CPRS will not be passed until after the next election. Turnbull cannot support it without tearing his party apart. The Greens will have an issue to fight the election on, Feilding will disappear and X will become irrelevant.

    In July after the election, the Govt. and Greens will compromise. Some Greens will think they have sold out.

    At the next election, the Greens will have been been “democrat-ised” the ALP will have other “crises” to steer us through.

    Then without Bob Brown the Greens will have rotating leaders as each faction fights to dominate.

    Then a new “minority party” of inner city teachers and acadmics will emerge and politics will continue as usual. 😉

  2. [Then a new “minority party” of inner city teachers and acadmics will emerge and politics will continue as usual.]

    Wouldn’t it be such a relief if they buried themselves in hole out in the Simpson Desert?

  3. [Crikey is not an authority for anything but bull and bluster.]

    Any specifics on the criticisms (not actually by Crikey journo’s)?

  6. Diogs, I have just read your post at 49. All that time spent under the knowledge tree has not gone to waste 🙂

  7. [Did you know the Russians give $10,000 US for the birth of a second child?]

    Does it stop at the second child?

    On Af/Pak I’ve been assured by the Amigos that Hillary will have that part of the world under control by the end of Obama’s first term. Israel/Palestine will be at the end of the second term.

    That Pak province being allowed to bring in Sharia law looked very, very concerning to me but very little has been said about it.

  9. Dio the real fight against ‘Terror’ is in Pakistan, we really need to pressure the Government to crack down on them after all it is for their own good at re-establishing their authority.

    William apologies for my language before.

    All I can say is that the poll trends have the ALP losing support and the Tories gaining support. That is at least a positive trend.

  10. [All I can say is that the poll trends have the ALP losing support and the Tories gaining support. That is at least a positive trend.]

    So much for your endless depiction of Morgan as “Bullbutter”

  11. Hmm, Dennis Jensen is being challenged for Preselection again.

    [The Federal Member for Tangney in Western Australia, Dennis Jensen, is facing a preselection challenge for the safe Liberal seat.

    He is the only West Australian Liberal to be challenged, after the state branch of the party closed nominations today for eleven of its seats.

    Doctor Jensen was also challenged during the last preselection round, but kept his preselection after the former Prime Minister John Howard intervened.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/22/2578750.htm

  13. [All I can say is that the poll trends have the ALP losing support and the Tories gaining support. That is at least a positive trend.]
    Really? Other than Nielsen, which polls are they Glen?

  14. Frank it is about time!

    Tangney is a prime blue ribbon seat and we have someone quite undeserving of such a seat. The person who takes that seat off him ought to be pushing for a role on the front bench IMHO.

  15. If all the people who voted Greens 1 at the last election were given the sole choice of deciding an ETS based on either (a) Greens policy or (b) Labor’s economic and environmental realities, the split would be (a) 30% & (b) 70% tops.

    According to the polls the movement has shifted slightly down for Labor based on deficit and debt fear mongering from the opposition. We are still to face the full impacts of the global recession and rising unemployment. And the Greens still want to push through an economically irresponsible ETS. Thank the universe Rudd is real popular otherwise the Liberals would be back in government in 2013 with Cossie as PM.

    You see, the problem with the Greens, is that they have got to learn how to win if they want to be treated as a serious party.

  16. [Really? Other than Nielsen, which polls are they Glen?]

    Possum’s Pollytrend has the ALP trending down since April, but since that was from a high of 60 2PP it’s going to take a lot more trending for the Libs to get in a comfortable position.

  19. [(a) Greens policy or (b) Labor’s economic and environmental realities]

    Could you clarify what this means?

    [And the Greens still want to push through an economically irresponsible ETS.]

    Do you have any evidence as to why a stronger scheme is “economically irresponsible”? GP says it is all the time but fails to provide any support. The most comprehensive analysis done suggests the complete opposite but I don’t really expect you to accept that.

  21. Centre

    Your figures might be right for the 40% minimum reduction (even I wouldn’t have voted for that) but I think their new 25% target would be very popular amongst Green voters compared with the 5% maybe 25% Rudd target.

    GP

    Looks like Obama is giving up on the car makers and now it’s time for some tough love. About time.

    [The Obama administration is preparing to send General Motors into bankruptcy as early as the end of next week under a plan that would give the automaker tens of billions of dollars more in public financing as the company seeks to shrink and reemerge as a global competitor, sources familiar with the discussions said.

    The move comes as the administration prepares to lift the nation’s other faltering car company, Chrysler, from bankruptcy protection as soon as next week, industry sources said. ]

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/21/AR2009052104467.html?nav=rss_email/components

  22. Jensen being challenged again isn’t particularly surprising; I presume it’s Matt Brown again.

    ruawake: Hah. The Greens aren’t the Democrats. If it isn’t a good enough deal, they’ll block it in the Senate. If it is, they’ll pass it, and they’re hardly likely to be having problems with their base.

    And without Bob Brown? They’ll be just fine. The Greens have a plentiful depth of talent, and aren’t really prone to ongoing wars over leadership. Look at Tasmania – after Brown, Labor and the Libs still had to alter the size of parliament to try and wipe out the Greens, then Putt rebuilt the party anyway, and McKim has lifted the Greens vote even higher.

  23. [Cos you are Hackle?]
    Thanks for at least offering an explanation, it is far better than what ESJ does. He loves the big statement that he follows up with nothing.

  24. [Looks like Obama is giving up on the car makers and now it’s time for some tough love. About time.]

    Quite so. How you ameliorate the effects on is one matter, but the three dinosaur car makers can’t all survive in their current form.

  26. Oooh. I didn’t notice this bit. The US auto industry (well GM and Chrysler) is being nationalised. No wonder the conservatives are going nuts over there.

    [The government previously indicated that it planned to take at least 50 percent of the restructured company, and likely would take the right to name members to its board of directors, as it has at Chrysler, where the government will control four of nine seats. ]

  27. [Oooh. I didn’t notice this bit. The US auto industry (well GM and Chrysler) is being nationalised.]
    They’re also annoyed that the deal with the Auto Workers Union will cut the wages and conditions of the car makers, but in return hand the union an equity stake in ownership of the company.
    [Brough still in the news he may well be looking for a seat next year ]
    You’re the only person who listens to that guy. The only reason people listened to him before the last election was because he was a minister who was constantly saying things that people couldn’t avoid hearing.

  28. [The Greens have a plentiful depth of talent, and aren’t really prone to ongoing wars over leadership.]

    Well, firstly, of course they haven’t had wars over leadership, they’ve only had one leader. I’m sure the Libs were pretty quiet under Menzies.

    I did like the speculation that Michael Organ should become leader of the party when he won Cunningham, on the basis that he was in the Reps. As if BB was ever going to let that happen!

    BTW, can I have a definitive answer on the ‘Greens don’t indulge in party warfare’ question? I’ve been told: that the WA Greens weren’t ‘real’ Greens when they help bop in the Senate; that they were real Greens and that there has always been harmony amongst the various Green state divisions; that there were severe divisions between the State parties until very recently, and BB only genuinely represented the Tasmanians for that reason.

    Which is correct? Or is it one of those ‘the answer depends on the circumstances’ ones, and I’m being mean asking for a definitive answer?

  29. Hi Rebecca I am a big fan of the Greens too!!

    I cant wait to see more inner City Labor seats fall to the Greens. Classic!

    I’ll be voting for my local Greens candidate in Balmain in 2011 to go with the Green Leichardt Council. I’ll probably have to wait until 2013 to see big daddy go by the wayside.

  30. Shows and Dio,

    the unions are getting this (figure I remember quoted from the w.post article was something along the order of 1/3, in the 30% range) because of the obligations they are being asked to absolve the company of vis a vis health care costs for the retirees, the biggest albatross around GM’s neck as it was the largest of the 3 companies. Ford is going it alone without outside intervention, they are the #2 company in size. Chrysler was/is #3. this is why i am following the situation as regards GM closely as my parents are directly affected. Dad is a GM retiree ……

  31. Oz I am saying that when push comes to shove, the majority of Green voters would side with Rudds ETS against the Greens’ ETS by a proportion of around 7 to 3.

  32. ESJ
    play nicely with the little Green girl.

    As a Green, she’s got enough delusions to deal with without you attempting to lure her into the bushes with false promises.

  33. The Greens @ 25% are going to look a bit unrealistic if the rest of the world ends up @ 20%, or even @ 17%.

  34. [Oz I am saying that when push comes to shove, the majority of Green voters would side with Rudds ETS against the Greens’ ETS by a proportion of around 7 to 3.]

    The 30% are the hard-core Feral dope smoking hairy armpit ones they keep behind closed doors like certain relatives who aren’t spoken about 🙂

  35. But then again, when the consequences of global warming @ 17% continue to arrive, maybe the rest of the world is going to look a bit unrealistic.

  36. ESJ, does ‘big daddy’ mean Albanese? If so, maybe 2010’s a shot, and the Greens and Labor could come to an arrangement: the Greens focus mainly on Grayndler in NSW, and Labor give Canning a red hot go. A Green in parliament and A MacTiernan for federal transport minister… hey, everybody wins. Except the Liberals, obviously. 😉

  37. [Oz I am saying that when push comes to shove, the majority of Green voters would side with Rudds ETS against the Greens’ ETS by a proportion of around 7 to 3.]

    Not only did you fail to support your argument, you just reiterated your gut feeling?

  38. [As a Green, she’s got enough delusions to deal with without you attempting to lure her into the bushes with false promises.]

    And she’d be too busy pedalling her bicycle-powered generator which powers her Computer. 🙂

  41. [The Greens @ 25% are going to look a bit unrealistic if the rest of the world ends up @ 20%, or even @ 17%.]

    If the rest of the world locks in 17%, there will be bigger things to worry about than the nature of The Greens position.

  43. “McKim has lifted the Greens vote even higher.” (#173) – now, I have a lot of time for Nick McKim on a personal level, unlike his predecessor, but (a) Nick hasn’t faced an election yet and (b) the Greens are actually struggling in the state polls here at the moment – the graph at =http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2009/05/may-emrs-poll-voters-hold-line.html shows them at their lowest level since 2005. So I’m just not sure what the basis for the claim is.

    Oh, there’s something I’ve been meaning to ask, but I’ve been too embarrassed – how the blazes does one do quoting on this thing?

  44. [Oh, there’s something I’ve been meaning to ask, but I’ve been too embarrassed – how the blazes does one do quoting on this thing?]

    Square brackets.

  46. The first thing they need to agree on in Copenhagen is a comparable starting point to avoid spin and complexities. Cuts in emissions should be based on 2000 levels. The Greens want 25% unconditional cuts on 1990 levels. 20 years ago. It’s lunacy. Frank @ 184 LOL 😀

  47. More precisely (I’ve only just mastered it, so it’s form of boasting)

    1. Highlight and copy the thing you want to quote

    2. In the comment box, insert [ then copy then ]

    3. Until you hit submit, it will look like this: [ comment ]

    4. But then, magically: [comment]

  49. [Bugger didn’t work how I wanted. But you’ve already mastered it. ]
    Quotes have to start on a new line.

  50. Gee, Labor supporters don’t like Turnbull. Checking out the Morgan phone poll beauty contest head-to-heads, Rudd/Costello among Labor supporters is 85/8, Rudd/Hockey is 89/4 and Rudd/Turnbull is 93/1.

    L-NP supporters like Costello slightly more than Turnbull but realise Hockey’s out of his league. Greens supporters have a similar view (Rudd/Turnbull 67.5-7.5, Rudd/Costello 71-19, Rudd/Hockey 77-0).

    All quite predictively meaningless but I found it pretty funny all the same.

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