Unpredictable Roy Morgan has unloaded two very different sets of poll results: one using its usual face-to-face methodology, but based on one week’s sample rather than the recently more usual two, and the other a phone poll in which respondents were also asked about leadership preference, contrary to normal Morgan practice. The face-to-face poll is from 999 respondents, and shows Labor’s lead narrowing from 60-40 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is down 0.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, while the Coalition is up a quite healthy 3.5 per cent to a still not-healthy 37.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 8 per cent.
However, the phone poll has Labor’s two-party lead at a more modest 54.5-45.5, from primary votes of 45 per cent Labor, 40.5 per cent Coalition and 7.5 per cent Greens. At present, a dedicated page for the phone poll result tells us only that Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 60.5 per cent to 26.5 per cent; that Rudd’s approval rating is 57.5 per cent; and that Turnbull’s approval rating is 43 per cent. Perhaps it will be fleshed out with more information at a later time.
Two other pieces of news:
It seems Andrew Wilkie will run as an independent candidate for Denison at next year’s Tasmanian state election. Wilkie is the former Office of National Assessments analyst who quit over the Howard government’s actions before the Iraq war, and subsequently ran as a Greens candidate against John Howard in Bennelong in 2004 and as Bob Brown’s Tasmanian Senate running mate in 2007.
A beleagured British Labour Party is considering sweeping electoral reforms, including an elected upper house. House of Commons reforms might presumably include some kind of preferential voting, which Britain’s three-plus party system badly needs, or more radically proportional representation, with which Britons have become familiar through elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, its members of European Parliament, and local government.
1,320 comments on “Morgan: 58-42/54.5-45.5”
[Iran is the biggest cause of instability in the region, because its government is unrepresentative and thus unaccountable to anyone other than some religious wackaloons.]
Almost every country in the ME is an absolute dictatorship. At least Iran has some psedo-democratic institutions. There are elections to the Majilis and presidency and I don’t think they are usually rigged. The only problem is that not anyone can run (although moderates and even rather far left candidates have been aloud to participate in the past so long as they can prove their religious credentials) and that the elected positions have less power than the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council and other non-elected, exsesively burocratic bodies. Even so when you compaire Iran to SA, UAE, Yemen, Kuwait, Syria, etc it is a beacon of representitive government.
I can admit he had a cameo role. But, as nearly always with daring reform, it was Labor that delivered the important lines.
I am reminded of the climactic scene in ‘The Empire Strikes Back’. The fear and anger in the eyes of both young Skywalker and the Emperor – “Strike me down and complete your journey to the Dark Side”. The fear of the Greens is being transfered into some rather inarticulate angery argy bargy. BB couldn’t have saved the Franklin without Hawke’s help and Hawke would have probably never even heard of the project if not for the likes of BB – deal with it!
[Almost every country in the ME is an absolute dictatorship. ]
Well, yeah except for Israel! Hence the U.S., Australia, U.K. and nearly every other developed democracy supports Israel.
[At least Iran has some psedo-democratic institutions.]
It also has unelected and unrepresentative head of state who has an absolute veto over anything that happens in the country.
[There are elections to the Majilis and presidency and I don’t think they are usually rigged. ]
They are rigged by definition, because the Ayatollah can stop anyone they don’t like from being a candidate. That’s why the legislative elections are always between conservatives and not-so-conservatives. There are no genuine reformers who run on the platform of turning the country into a liberal democracy. Anyone who suggested that would be arrested.
[So you would rather the Rudd Govt be the subject of the mother of all scare campaigns involving the loss of jobs etc, especially when we are in recessional times, just so the oh so pures can have warm feeling in their toes.]
The fact that there’s no evidence for this doesn’t seem to stop you. The Rudd government won, largely because of their promise to take strong action. They spent more than a year telling us that strong action would be BETTER for the economy, even in recession. The most comprehensive reports into the issue say exactly the same thing. Either put up your own evidence or hush.
[Dam hold water that would otherwise run into the sea or evaporate – so in a drought prone country we need dams.]
I didn’t say we didn’t need dams. I said that doesn’t mean everytime someone wants to build a dam, regardless of the environmental impacts, we should say “Sure”..
[It seems nothing has changed for the Oh So Pure’s.]
You seriously think The Greens block everything the government puts up? Do you follow politics in this country at all?
The importance of Bob Brown’s role has been greatly exaggerated.
As far as a legislator goes, you can count BB’s successes on the fingers of one fist.
You deal with the reality.
[I can admit he had a cameo role. But, as nearly always with daring reform, it was Labor that delivered the important lines.]
It was far more than a cameo role, but since you have conceded he had a role, that means your statement that Bob Brown has never achieved anything for the nation is wrong.
For the record, Bob Brown was the doctor who pronounced Jimi Hendrix dead on arrival!
Dams have environmental impacts – ALL of them. You are flooding an environment. When did the Greens last support a Dam being built ?
[They are rigged by definition, because the Ayatollah can stop anyone they don’t like from being a candidate. That’s why the legislative elections are always between conservatives and not-so-conservatives.]
Yeah I know but who the people genuinely prefer out of the conservative and not-so-conservative will be elected, I think. Also whilst it has become worse in rescent times, in the early days of the Islamic Revolution genuine leftists were aloud to run. This was because the conservatives didnt dominate the candidate-veto boards, now that they do, so few lefties can run.
[Yeah I know but who the people genuinely prefer out of the conservative and not-so-conservative will be elected, I think.]
But what’s the point? It means millions of people can’t vote for who they want to vote for. It demonstrates that the people who run Iran don’t want free and fair elections because they know that will ultimately result in a counter-revolution.
[This was because the conservatives didnt dominate the candidate-veto boards, now that they do, so few lefties can run.]
Which just demonstrate that it is an unrepresentative theocratic state that abuses the basic right of everyone to have their wishes and desires democratically represented.
Iran is anything but a democracy.
BTW it’s spelt allowed.
[The importance of Bob Brown’s role has been greatly exaggerated.]
Please site your reference for this claim. It was my understanding that he and a mate were rafting down the river, saw engineers serveying the area and spread the word. So if I’ve got my facts staight then he was there right from the start!
I never claimed it was a democracy. It is not. I said it was a psedo-democracy and has more democratic institutions (shams though they may be) than the likes of Saudi Arabia etc.
[Even so when you compaire Iran to SA, UAE, Yemen, Kuwait, Syria, etc it is a beacon of representitive government.]
That took it a bit too far.
[Please site your reference for this claim.]
His reference is that he earlier proposed that Bob Brown has never achieved anything for the nation, therefore he perceives that anything that Bob Brown has done hasn’t achieved anything for the nation.
[The Tasmanian Wilderness Society, under activist Bob Brown, which had formed from the anti-Lake Pedder Dam groups, the Tasmanian Conservation Trust and the Australian Conservation Foundation began to mount a public interest campaign concerning the river. The photographs of Dombrovskis and his colleague, Olegas Truchanas, attracted significant attention. The campaign generated 30,000 letters of support in a fortnight. A film, The Last Wild River, was shown on Tasmania’s two commercial television stations.
In June, 1980, an estimated 10,000 people marched through the streets of Hobart, demanding that the government not proceed with construction. This was the largest rally in the history of the state.]
[During 1982, active membership of anti-dam organisations increased a hundredfold in mainland states. Rallies and events were held in cities around Australia. Bob Brown toured the country raising support for the anti-dam campaign, attempting to convince Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser to intervene and override the state legislation allowing the dam’s construction.]
[While the blockade was ongoing, Norm Sanders resigned from the House of Assembly to contest a Senate seat. He was replaced in the assembly by Bob Brown, who had only been released the previous day after spending three weeks in jail for his role in the blockade.]
[Dams have environmental impacts – ALL of them. You are flooding an environment.]
Do you understand what an environmental impact assessment is?
Virtually EVERYTHING has some kind of environmental impact. The idea is too see if the impacts of what you’re doing – be it building a bridge, road or dam fits with legislated regulations, doesn’t destroy heritage areas and doesn’t have a heavy impact on the flora and fauna, particularly if they are endangered and determine impacts on the community. You have to assess whether the benefit of what you’re doing outweighs any environmental or social damage. This is different for every single thing you’re doing. All dams/roads/bridges do not have the same impact everywhere they are, it’s completely dependent on the context.
I got those quotes from:
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