Essential Research: 59-41

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 62-38 to 59-41. There are also interesting breakdowns on attitudes to the budget and the retirement age by employment and self-identified social class: office workers think the higher retirement age fair, tradesmen and manual labourers very much the opposite, while class reaction to the budget is how you would traditionally expect with Labor in power. The survey also finds the public slightly more receptive to a senior role for Peter Costello than they were three months ago.

Other news:

• Two challengers have emerged against incumbent Dennis Jensen in the Liberal preselection for Tangney – neither of whom is Matt Brown, who defeated Jensen in the local vote ahead of the 2007 election only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports the conteders are Alcoa government relations and public policy manager Libby Lyons, last seen angling for the state seat of Nedlands (and apparently the granddaughter of Joseph Lyons), and Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott.

• The ABC reports that Tasmanian David Bartlett has “reconsidered” his original proposal for fixed elections on March 20 after “consultation with key stakeholders”, which hopefully includes Antony Green (the move would have set up a permanent clash with elections in South Australia). He instead proposes to allow a future Premier “flexibility” within a three-month period, similar to what Colin Barnett is advocating in Western Australia. An draft that was being circulated for consultation early in the year allowed for early Legislative Assembly elections if the Legislative Council so much as blocked a bill the Assembly deemed to be “significant”, and provided for an Assembly election in the event of a no-confidence motion or if the Council blocked supply.

• Staying in Tasmania, David Bartlett helpfully puts out a press release each time a Labor candidate is nominated for next year’s state election – the latest being Franklin candidate Kate Churchill, whose role as operations manager of Colony 47 would appear to make her a community organiser in the Barack Obama mould.

• Andrew Landeryou at Vex News runs a scan of an Australian Financial Review report that the Labor national executive “may be asked to run preselections for state seats in the western suburbs of Melbourne to try to defuse factional tensions before the election next year”. As Landeryou puts it, “Some say this is code for a cross-factional and multi-sub-factional agreement that the member for Keilor George Seitz be encouraged to retire”, following the state Ombudsman’s recent probings into Brimbank City Council and their bearing on the state preselection for the 2008 Kororoit by-election. Landeryou raises his eyebrows at the assertion that the arrangement’s backers, said to include Kim Carr of the Left and Bill Shorten of the Right, want preselection for Brendan O’Connor’s federal seat of Gorton taken out of local hands, as there as been no suggestion he might be troubled.

• Writing in The Australian’s weekly State of the Nation wrap-up of state politics, Imre Salusinszky returns to a favourite theme: the unlikelihood of an early federal election given the need for “mini-redistributions” if the redistributions for New South Wales and Queensland are yet to be finalised. In particular, he notes that a mini-redistribution would have to create three Coalition seats from two (Fadden and Moncrieff) in Queensland, while merging two Labor seats (Sydney and Lowe) in New South Wales – as well as giving the Coalition a stick with which to beat Labor for calling an election under such inopportune circumstances.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “Essential Research: 59-41”

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  1. [ The U.S. is already up to a few thousand cases, we are on 200. So per-capita that is about the same.

    So that’s quite surprising, isn’t it, given the US’s proximity to the source?]

    Perhaps Psephos’ point about us being able to identify more cases due to the capability of our health system is relevant here?

  2. YHH,

    Quite so, I suspect that must be the answer. We are testing everyone who sneezes. (Well, that’s an exaggeration, but there are certainly people at my work who are barely even symptomatic, but have been tested).

  4. [The only factor in influenza virii infections is the individuals immune system and underlying co-morbities.]
    Not that simple ru. Otherwise healthy people were apparently most susceptible to the Spanish Flu in 1919. The hypothesis is that their healthy immune systems overreacted, producing a cytokine storm which killed those healthy people. That would have just been the luck of the mutation which arose having that effect on the hosts as well as being novel to peoples’ immune systems.

  5. “Virii”? Give me a break. Virus is an English word and its plural is “viruses.” In its current sense the word was coined in the 18th century and it was a “mass noun” with no plural form. For it to have a plural it would have to be assigned to one of the declensions of Latin nouns. Some dictionaries take it to be a 2nd declension noun, like others ending in -us, in which case its plural would be “vira.” But treating it as a Latin word in English speech is silly, because it never existed in Latin.

  7. The quicker everyone gets this virus the better, then we’ll see it’s no more dangerous than any other flu virus, and the media will have to find something else to jerk off over.

  9. Does anyone take seriously Saluzinsky’s theory that the need for mini-re-distributions will preclude an early election? I don’t.

    On the whole I think an early election probably won’t happen. Rudd is a naturally cautious individual.

    But if he was otherwise minded to go early, I can’t imagine someone talking him out of it on the basis that “You can’t do that Prime Minister, 3% of Australians will have to vote in electorates with makeshift boundaries!”.

  10. [The quicker everyone gets this virus the better, then we’ll see it’s no more dangerous than any other flu virus, and the media will have to find something else to jerk off over.]

    Two points:

    – it’s clearly not very virulent right now. If you happen to be one of those people who are worried that it’s going to be worse later, then you’d certainly be well-served to catch it now.
    – as I said earlier, if anyone’s over-reacting (which I am not convinced of, by the way), it’s the public health authorities.

  12. [- as I said earlier, if anyone’s over-reacting (which I am not convinced of, by the way), it’s the public health authorities.]

    It’s called covering one’s arse if it goes pear-shaped and results in legal action and the tabloid media going feral at them for NOT doing anything about it.

  13. Its Time

    The major complication of flu, is deep-seated pneumonia. It is thought that the virus causes a “cytokine storm”, an excessive but ineffective response of the body to the virus. Think of this as a Keystone-cops response of the immune system. The bad guys are unscathed but all the cops running around shooting off their side arms cause grave damage to the innocent bystanders. In this case, the inappropriate over-the-top response of the immune system causes massive damage to lung tissue, hence the pneumonia. You are well advised not to take magic potions or herbal remedies that are supposed to “build up your immune system”. More often than not, these herbs may make matters worse. Remember, pneumonia is the major killer here, and it is caused by an excessive and inappropriate inflammatory response.

    From an article I helped compile http://clltopics.org/ChronInflam/FluPrep.htm

    Adam virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii,virii. 😛

  14. [“You can’t do that Prime Minister, 3% of Australians will have to vote in electorates with makeshift boundaries!”.]

    And given the seats involved, the result is already pretty much guaranteed – early election or not.

  15. [Remember, pneumonia is the major killer here, and it is caused by an excessive and inappropriate inflammatory response.]

    Wonder why, then, anti-allergy treatments aren’t used? I would have thought “excessive and inappropriate inflammatory response” is at least a close relative of an allergic reaction.

    (Hmmm, sorry WB, perhaps this is too far off-topic).

  16. Psephos:

    [The quicker everyone gets this virus the better, then we’ll see it’s no more dangerous than any other flu virus, and the media will have to find something else to jerk off over.]

    Nonsense. It has killed people, maybe you hadn’t heard?

    That is the sort of attitude which allowed the equine flu to escape into Oz, resulting in millions of dollars of extra expense and lost revenue.

  17. My question to people who insist on trying to use “correct” Latin and Greek plurals is always: what is the “correct” plural of caucus?

  18. [Nonsense. It has killed people, maybe you hadn’t heard?]

    How many people have died from the regular flu so far this year?

  19. [Nonsense. It has killed people, maybe you hadn’t heard?

    That is the sort of attitude which allowed the equine flu to escape into Oz, resulting in millions of dollars of extra expense and lost revenue.]

    Do you have shares in Tamiflu and Surgical Masks ? 🙂

  24. ru
    I accept your original statement “The only factor in influenza virii infections is the individuals immune system and underlying co-morbities.” if it refers to an over-stimulated immune system as well as a compromised immune system (which I initially assumed you meant). (excluding any spelling errors)

  25. [The number of schools closed in Victoria is now 7.]

    and the kids aren’t complaining one bit 🙂

  27. [Liberal stooge, Rosanna Capolingua is stepping down as President of the AMA.]

    And easily replaced by another one 🙂 I wonder if she is groomed for a safe Liberal Seat in WA?

  28. Psephos:

    [And how many horses did the great equine flu epizootic of 2007 kill in Australia?]

    Not the point, a red herring, Adam, as you know full well. At least I hope you do.

    The GFC hasn’t killed many people that I know of, but that doesn’t take away from its importance.

    Looked at your super lately?

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