The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 62-38 to 59-41. There are also interesting breakdowns on attitudes to the budget and the retirement age by employment and self-identified social class: office workers think the higher retirement age fair, tradesmen and manual labourers very much the opposite, while class reaction to the budget is how you would traditionally expect with Labor in power. The survey also finds the public slightly more receptive to a senior role for Peter Costello than they were three months ago.
Other news:
• Two challengers have emerged against incumbent Dennis Jensen in the Liberal preselection for Tangney – neither of whom is Matt Brown, who defeated Jensen in the local vote ahead of the 2007 election only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports the conteders are Alcoa government relations and public policy manager Libby Lyons, last seen angling for the state seat of Nedlands (and apparently the granddaughter of Joseph Lyons), and Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott.
• The ABC reports that Tasmanian David Bartlett has “reconsidered” his original proposal for fixed elections on March 20 after “consultation with key stakeholders”, which hopefully includes Antony Green (the move would have set up a permanent clash with elections in South Australia). He instead proposes to allow a future Premier “flexibility” within a three-month period, similar to what Colin Barnett is advocating in Western Australia. An draft that was being circulated for consultation early in the year allowed for early Legislative Assembly elections if the Legislative Council so much as blocked a bill the Assembly deemed to be “significant”, and provided for an Assembly election in the event of a no-confidence motion or if the Council blocked supply.
• Staying in Tasmania, David Bartlett helpfully puts out a press release each time a Labor candidate is nominated for next year’s state election – the latest being Franklin candidate Kate Churchill, whose role as operations manager of Colony 47 would appear to make her a community organiser in the Barack Obama mould.
• Andrew Landeryou at Vex News runs a scan of an Australian Financial Review report that the Labor national executive “may be asked to run preselections for state seats in the western suburbs of Melbourne to try to defuse factional tensions before the election next year”. As Landeryou puts it, “Some say this is code for a cross-factional and multi-sub-factional agreement that the member for Keilor George Seitz be encouraged to retire”, following the state Ombudsman’s recent probings into Brimbank City Council and their bearing on the state preselection for the 2008 Kororoit by-election. Landeryou raises his eyebrows at the assertion that the arrangement’s backers, said to include Kim Carr of the Left and Bill Shorten of the Right, want preselection for Brendan O’Connor’s federal seat of Gorton taken out of local hands, as there as been no suggestion he might be troubled.
• Writing in The Australian’s weekly State of the Nation wrap-up of state politics, Imre Salusinszky returns to a favourite theme: the unlikelihood of an early federal election given the need for “mini-redistributions” if the redistributions for New South Wales and Queensland are yet to be finalised. In particular, he notes that a mini-redistribution would have to create three Coalition seats from two (Fadden and Moncrieff) in Queensland, while merging two Labor seats (Sydney and Lowe) in New South Wales – as well as giving the Coalition a stick with which to beat Labor for calling an election under such inopportune circumstances.
Wow Brissiden on ABC said that the Liberals are formulating their position on the CPRS in their party room meeting tomorrow.
Oz,
There’s no point in arguing with the screeching harridans GG and Ruawake, they don’t understand context in environmental considerations. They didn’t when we were discussing windpower either.
[Fascinating that the Greens and Nats are in bed together]
From previous thread.
GG, another unholy alliance. It’s becoming a habit now for the GREENS. How long before it turns to Brown?
[Wow Brissiden on ABC said that the Liberals are formulating their position on the CPRS in their party room meeting tomorrow.]
Oh joy. Yet another ETS position from the Libs since the election. Are they in double figures yet?
[they don’t understand context in environmental considerations. They didn’t when we were discussing windpower either.]
Oh, we understood the context.
We determined fairly clearly that the Greens position on wind farms is that they support them unless there’s a chance someone might be upset by one.
[Oh joy. Yet another ETS position from the Libs since the election. Are they in double figures yet?]
Well, this is it. This is where they decide which way they will vote in the Senate on the legislation.
[Well, this is it. This is where they decide which way they will vote in the Senate on the legislation.]
Not necessarily. My bet is that they decide to delay any Senate vote.
LOL
[The teenager’s bid for media attention inspired Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese in question time today in an attack on Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull.
“Last week, Clare Werbeloff shot to international fame after she went to extraordinary lengths to get herself in front of the camera, in front of the camera, to give a grab, to get that few minutes of fame,” he said.
“But unfortunately when you look for the substance it wasn’t there … just like the leader of the Opposition.” ]
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25536513-5005962,00.html
Zoomster
It’s very disappointing when otherwise rational people devolve into nothing more than barracking. Especially after we had such a long discussion about it.
Makes me sad.
[GG, another unholy alliance. It’s becoming a habit now for the GREENS. How long before it turns to Brown?]
Finns
droll,
very droll
perhaps we should allow a party like FF or One nation to hold the balance of power
Imagine what we could achieve and how much whitebread we could all eat.
😉
Astrobleme – true, but I forgive you.
The “Coalition/Green alliance becoming a habit” meme is funny because it ignores the fact, that for better or worse, The Greens are Labor’s best friend in terms of preferences and Senate support.
William, wasnt the Kororoit by-election in 2008?
Oz
It also makes absolutely no sense.
[that for better or worse, The Greens are Labor’s best friend in terms of preferences and Senate support.]
Would Labor be in government without Greens preferences? I doubt it.
ShowsOn
I’ve said it before — there’s a lot of ALP bashing on this blog, not JUST from Glen and GP, which I usually let go through to the keeper because it’s not worth bothering about.
We ALPers understand that that’s the price you pay for being in government – you can’t live up to the impossible standards set by some people, so you just wear the criticism.
BUT if one points out a simple fact- as I did, as was proved by the fervent Geen responders, who simply reinforced my original point, that there was NO Green policy supporting wind FARMS and only one reference to wind farms in the 2007 platform – about the Greens, it unleashes a torrent of criticism.
Where have all those posters gone to, by the way? Made me think of all the times there’ve been posts here saying how the nasty majors have hacks on stand by to flood sites when necessary…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25524934-2702,00.html
[ETS vote may wait for global talks
Lenore Taylor, National correspondent | May 23, 2009
Article from: The Australian
KEVIN Rudd’s bid to get his emissions trading scheme through parliament this year could be frustrated after the Greens and the Senate independents said they would consider a Coalition option to delay a vote on the laws until after crucial global talks in Copenhagen in December.
The Coalition, which could finalise its position at a partyroom meeting on Tuesday, is considering agreeing with the Government on the emission reduction targets Australia could sign up to under a new international deal, while delaying legislation setting up the domestic emissions trading scheme, which is now not scheduled to start until mid-2011.
Opposition emissions trading spokesman Andrew Robb said yesterday: “It would be irresponsible to rush this deeply flawed scheme through parliament by the end of June. We can have the debate after the Copenhagen meeting at the end of the year, with all the information on the table, without affecting Mr Rudd’s new start date.”
Malcolm Turnbull has said his climate change plan, which could be discussed by shadow cabinet on Monday, will advocate targets at least as ambitious as those proposed by the Government.
The Government had assumed it could force the Coalition to vote on the legislation in June, but now the Greens, Family First senator Steve Fielding and independent senator Nick Xenophon are saying they would consider a delay.
The Government, which has 32 senators in the 76-seat upper house, requires the support of all seven minor-party or independent senators to pass legislation when the Coalition is opposed.
Senator Fielding said: “I would prefer the Government wait until Copenhagen … before locking Australia into a commitment that will leave us out on a limb.
Senator Xenophon said: “I would prefer to deal with the legislation now but I would be open to arguments from the Coalition about delaying it.”
Even the Greens, who have said they will vote against the legislation because its targets are not ambitious enough, said a cross-party agreement on the Government’s negotiating mandate for the UN talks in Copenhagen could be the best option.
Greens deputy leader Christine Milne said “passing the carbon pollution reduction scheme as it stands is no way to convince the global community that Australia is serious about climate change”.
“In fact, it would be better to go to Copenhagen with it still being negotiated than with a legislatively locked-in upper limit on our negotiating range.”
Agreeing to a negotiating mandate would lessen the political downside of delaying the legislation for the Opposition Leader, who advocated a scheme similar to the present Government’s when he was John Howard’s environment minister.
But Mr Turnbull has yet to convince his partyroom that he could achieve such a target without costing jobs. Given the strong position taken by Nationals senators, the plan could also split the Coalition.
Climate Change Minister Penny Wong told The Weekend Australian yesterday: “Business needs certainty. It needs to know both the targets and the nature of the scheme in order to make investment decisions.”
The Government’s climate change adviser Ross Garnaut said that, by leaving open the option of a 25 per cent cut in emissions by 2020, the Government had “put itself back in the game of working towards a strong outcome”.]
The proposed ETS locks in failure – emmissions just cannot drop fast enough. The US is also acting woefully. Where to look for hope? Scandinavia maybe?
The Government shouldn’t wait for Copenhagen, they should bring the bills to the Senate ASAP and make it a DD trigger.
Completely depressing episode of Australian Story. A bloke tries to help people, and tries to accept people for who they are, but instead he gets spied on and has his church closed down.
Given that a lot of posters here have indicated that they don’t believe they need to cut their standard of living at all in order to prevent climate change, no ETS target is likely to be acceptable to the Australian people.
You can’t expect governments to do what you as an individual won’t accept.
I find it all very depressing.
[perhaps we should allow a party like FF or One nation to hold the balance of power]
Gus, is there any money in this? if yes, Pauline will be in it.
Astrobleme,
We’ve seen posters like you come and go. If you have something that adds value to the discussion (faux concern and finger pointing to control discussion does not count) you may be a valuable acquisition. However, “tut tut” trolling about like you do is fairly transparent and at this stage and you can be safely ignored as a Greens plant.
Am happy to see you put up your own opinions instead of riffing off other contributors.
Might be stretch though.
Get Libby Lyons in Tangney could she be ministerial material???
She would probably be more so than Jensen could ever be and that’s without knowing a thing about her.
We really need to make use of these safe seats and get good hard working MPs who have the potential to take big roles in the party Tangney is one such seat.
Don’t you people read William’s posts??? Labor has a potential problem brewing with the unions about raising the pension age. Swan refused to budge on waiving it for manual workers today. The unions aren’t happy. Just as well Gillard flip-flopped on union members being able to avoid tax with their share allocations. 😉
[There are also interesting breakdowns on attitudes to the budget and the retirement age by employmment and self-identified social class: office workers think the higher retirement age fair, tradesmen and manual labourers very much the opposite.]
Glen,
What about Higgins, Ryan, O’Connor and Berowra.
Jensen hasn’t even qualified for the pension.
[Get Libby Lyons in Tangney could she be ministerial material???]
You want the granddaughter of a keynesian and ex-Labor MP? Bwahahaha.
[Am happy to see you put up your own opinions instead of riffing off other contributors.]
When did William make you an administrator?
Jensen doesnt deserve it GG.
He’s an underperformer…
Plus the Libs need more competent women in the party i mean it is woeful that only Bishop and whatsherface sit on the main front bench section. I dont advocate for affirmative action or Emily’s List, but when a capable woman comes around who has something to contribute and has good potential we ought to draft them in.
Zoomster
Do you not remember the very long discussion we had re: windfarms?
It seems you have a short memory.
GG
I was just pointing out you were doing exactly what you are currently accusing me of.
[Jensen doesnt deserve it GG.
He’s an underperformer…]
I reckon he will conduct quite a performance in the Liberal partyroom meeting tomorrow morning. I’m sure he will talk a lot about how it is getting hotter on Neptune as well as Earth, and that it isn’t anything to worry about.
A very disturbing story on 4Corners. The do-gooders always make me wonder.
ShowsOn,
The king of cut and paste riffers. Your ears must be burning.
Your point!
ShowsOn,
How long have you been troubled by priests? It seems to be a recurring theme in your posts?
[Get Libby Lyons in Tangney could she be ministerial material???]
You want the granddaughter of a keynesian and ex-Labor MP? LOL
ShowsON
“The Government shouldn’t wait for Copenhagen, they should bring the bills to the Senate ASAP and make it a DD trigger.”
When we discussed this the other day various posters made it clear it wasn’t in the Govts interests to bring this forward and get it happening. Despite all the claims that the Greens are delaying the CPRS, it’s just not so. The only way it can pass is if the Libs say yes. Sadly the Govt want this to linger so they can bleed the Libs.
ShowsOn
[The Government shouldn’t wait for Copenhagen, they should bring the bills to the Senate ASAP and make it a DD trigger.]
Well if the senate votes to postpone the vote then what can they do? It would look rathr silly to have a DD over whether the senate should debate the ETS. There would be no joint-sitting for the actual ETS and it could still be blocked.
I’d prefer we had a worthwhile CPRS before Copenhagen but in its absence no ETS is better. The question is; what would a cross-party endorsed negotiating mandate look like?
[Even the Greens, who have said they will vote against the legislation because its targets are not ambitious enough, said a cross-party agreement on the Government’s negotiating mandate for the UN talks in Copenhagen could be the best option.
Greens deputy leader Christine Milne said “passing the carbon pollution reduction scheme as it stands is no way to convince the global community that Australia is serious about climate change”.
“In fact, it would be better to go to Copenhagen with it still being negotiated than with a legislatively locked-in upper limit on our negotiating range.”
Agreeing to a negotiating mandate would lessen the political downside of delaying the legislation for the Opposition Leader, who advocated a scheme similar to the present Government’s when he was John Howard’s environment minister.]
The Nationals say they are ready for the vote so technically the Government would only need to convince Xenophon or Fielding to support the legislation being considered.
Astrobleme
Do not let GG think that GG is getting away with bullying you. Its best to just ignore him or her. The day will come when GG crosses the line and William bans him or her.
Heyson Molotov
Cheers
Astrbleme,
See, you can offer an opinion. Elephant stamp for you.
However, actually, Labor are happy to create a double dissolution trigger if the CPRS legislation is not passed in June. So, you got that wrong.
ltep
If I’ve got the maths right then that should read:
The Nationals say they are ready for the vote so technically the Government would only need to convince Xenophon AND Fielding to support the legislation being considered.
[Labor has a potential problem brewing with the unions about raising the pension age.]
As someone in Crikey pointed out (can’t remember who), Labor probably patted themselves on the back when the left-wing unions came out and opposed the changes. Makes them look balanced and reasonable.
[The king of cut and paste riffers. Your ears must be burning.]
I just have no idea why you think you have the right to tell other people what and how they should post. Who made you moderator?
[How long have you been troubled by priests? It seems to be a recurring theme in your posts?]
How long have you had a problem with logic? It seems to be lacking in all your posts.
[When we discussed this the other day various posters made it clear it wasn’t in the Govts interests to bring this forward and get it happening.]
It’s certainly in the Government’s interests to have a D.D. trigger.
[Well if the senate votes to postpone the vote then what can they do? ]
They can’t do that. The opposition can just vote against the second or third readings, which is the equivalent of rejecting the legislation.
[The Nationals say they are ready for the vote so technically the Government would only need to convince Xenophon AND Fielding to support the legislation being considered.]
No. The only way the legislation could be delayed is if the Senate voted to delay it. Equal votes result in the question being negatived. So an equal vote is all the Government needs.
[Its best to just ignore him or her. The day will come when GG crosses the line and William bans him or her.]
G.G. doesn’t need to be banned. He just needs to learn that people can post however they like, as long as they follow the standing orders.
[However, actually, Labor are happy to create a double dissolution trigger if the CPRS legislation is not passed in June. So, you got that wrong.]
The vote isn’t going to happen until July. It would then need to be blocked again during the spring sitting in the last week of October. The Copenhagen meeting is in the first week of December. So, if the Government plans this well, either they have the scheme legislated by then, or they rock up to Copanhagen with a D.D. trigger in the bag.
ShowsOn,
As one of the leaders of the pack who ran “Ron” off the reservation you have no shame.
I have never said anyone can or cannot post here. I only point out that their credibility is somewhat limited imho if they continue a particular line.
I notice you have persevered despite my criticisms of your style. Good for you.
Oh yeah, of course – a motion has to be past. But what about ShowsOn’s post:
[“Well if the senate votes to postpone the vote then what can they do?”
They can’t do that. The opposition can just vote against the second or third readings, which is the equivalent of rejecting the legislation.]
Is that true? The minority does it all the time in the US which they cant do here but I would have though that the majority could choose to postpone a vote?
[The only way the legislation could be delayed is if the Senate voted to delay it. ]
The Senate can’t do this. If the Senate votes against the second or third reading of the bills, then that means the legislation has been voted down.
Mr X has said he wants the ETS vote to go ahead.
GG
If you are not nicer to us lefties, I will be forced to bring up the Crows vs Carlton match on the weekend.
27
[Do you not remember the very long discussion we had re: windfarms?
It seems you have a short memory.]
Absolutely. It began with me saying that there was one reference to wind farms in the Greens 2007 Federal policy platform and it ended proving that that was right.
Oh, and you invented a policy for the Greens to try and explain why they had such a poor record of support for wind farms.
GG
Seems you got it wrong…