The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 62-38 to 59-41. There are also interesting breakdowns on attitudes to the budget and the retirement age by employment and self-identified social class: office workers think the higher retirement age fair, tradesmen and manual labourers very much the opposite, while class reaction to the budget is how you would traditionally expect with Labor in power. The survey also finds the public slightly more receptive to a senior role for Peter Costello than they were three months ago.
Other news:
• Two challengers have emerged against incumbent Dennis Jensen in the Liberal preselection for Tangney – neither of whom is Matt Brown, who defeated Jensen in the local vote ahead of the 2007 election only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports the conteders are Alcoa government relations and public policy manager Libby Lyons, last seen angling for the state seat of Nedlands (and apparently the granddaughter of Joseph Lyons), and Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott.
• The ABC reports that Tasmanian David Bartlett has “reconsidered” his original proposal for fixed elections on March 20 after “consultation with key stakeholders”, which hopefully includes Antony Green (the move would have set up a permanent clash with elections in South Australia). He instead proposes to allow a future Premier “flexibility” within a three-month period, similar to what Colin Barnett is advocating in Western Australia. An draft that was being circulated for consultation early in the year allowed for early Legislative Assembly elections if the Legislative Council so much as blocked a bill the Assembly deemed to be “significant”, and provided for an Assembly election in the event of a no-confidence motion or if the Council blocked supply.
• Staying in Tasmania, David Bartlett helpfully puts out a press release each time a Labor candidate is nominated for next year’s state election – the latest being Franklin candidate Kate Churchill, whose role as operations manager of Colony 47 would appear to make her a community organiser in the Barack Obama mould.
• Andrew Landeryou at Vex News runs a scan of an Australian Financial Review report that the Labor national executive “may be asked to run preselections for state seats in the western suburbs of Melbourne to try to defuse factional tensions before the election next year”. As Landeryou puts it, “Some say this is code for a cross-factional and multi-sub-factional agreement that the member for Keilor George Seitz be encouraged to retire”, following the state Ombudsman’s recent probings into Brimbank City Council and their bearing on the state preselection for the 2008 Kororoit by-election. Landeryou raises his eyebrows at the assertion that the arrangement’s backers, said to include Kim Carr of the Left and Bill Shorten of the Right, want preselection for Brendan O’Connor’s federal seat of Gorton taken out of local hands, as there as been no suggestion he might be troubled.
• Writing in The Australian’s weekly State of the Nation wrap-up of state politics, Imre Salusinszky returns to a favourite theme: the unlikelihood of an early federal election given the need for “mini-redistributions” if the redistributions for New South Wales and Queensland are yet to be finalised. In particular, he notes that a mini-redistribution would have to create three Coalition seats from two (Fadden and Moncrieff) in Queensland, while merging two Labor seats (Sydney and Lowe) in New South Wales – as well as giving the Coalition a stick with which to beat Labor for calling an election under such inopportune circumstances.
Top shot ruawake 1998.
So the parliamentary member and supporters are destined to fall off the twig…soon.
ruawake said
So you think Turnbull is the next Menzies. I wonder what he will call the new party. I suppose he could complete the square and call it the United Australia Party.
[Howard will be remembered as the treasurer who had double digit inflation, interest rates and unemployment – yet he survived to be PM for over a decade.]
Yep, the remarkable transformation of his image, from one of the worst treasurers we’ve had, to unimpeachable economic guru as PM, is testament to:
a) Liberal spin
b) Happening to land in government for the combined prosperity of global growth + a domestic mining boom
If one or both those factors had been absent, his reputation as ruinous economic manager would not have improved much.
[Yep, the remarkable transformation of his image, from one of the worst treasurers we’ve had, to unimpeachable economic guru as PM, is testament to:
a) Liberal spin
b) Happening to land in government for the combined prosperity of global growth + a domestic mining boom]
To be fair, Fraser wouldn’t let Howard implement the economic reforms that Hawke/Keating did. If the reforms were put in place the economic figures may have been better.
[I wonder what he will call the new party. I suppose he could complete the square and call it the United Australia Party.]
Naw, the Commonwealth Liberal Party. lol.
L.I.B.S…………”Lying Ignorant B@stards Still!”
[ To be fair, Fraser wouldn’t let Howard implement the economic reforms that Hawke/Keating did. If the reforms were put in place the economic figures may have been better. ]
Bob, IF you are going to be fair about this, we need to add frasers response – which is – Show me the cabinet papers howard produced about such reforms and which he claims were blocked.
Fraser has maintained for years – there are no papers regarding such reforms. Howard has hidden behind lies on this issue for years and will not respond to fraser.on the issue.
Fraser never stopped howard on economic reform and said so in the GG before the election. Howard could not produce a single document from archives to back up his claims.
The L-NP still have to sort out the LNP mess in Qld. Will the Federal Libs decide on preselections or will it be the LNP.
Will the Federal Lib members in Qld be members of the LNP, thus allowing Barnaby a vote in the Liberal Party room?
They could just complete the job nation wide. If they had just one conservative party things would definitely improve (i.e. cost reductions).
If the Libs persist with coalition with the Nats they will forever have to make compromises that result in difficulties garnering sufficient support from the centre.
If they take the long term view that they cannot win the 2010 election, excise the Nationals rump and deselect the old and out-of-fashion relics that pepper their current numbers they aight be able to costruct a viable oppostion.
Would they have the fortitude to do so?
V.true ruawake 2008.
SBS News says there are now 207 confirmed cases of Swine flu in Australia. That means there are 60 more confirmed cases now than this time yesterday.
There was an interesting report in The Australian today regarding our spy services.
Apparently they bug 3000 calls a year. Australian’s are 23 times more likely to be bugged than Americans.
The more cases there are with no deaths, the more obviously this is all just a media beat up.
Spot On, ShowsOn 2012.
Adam i agree the media is having a field day. But that being said the more people who catch it the greater chance it has to mutate and become more deadly.
The Piggy ‘flu, is similar to the duck ‘flu or the whatever other ‘flu you want to mention. Seasonal ‘flu mutates – there is nothing special about this one.
Yes, the swine flu is just a beat up to sell more papers and use as a stick to beat any government or health department for doing too little/too much depending on which way the wind is blowing.
The only interesting unanswered question in the whole saga is why it appeared to be so deadly in Mexico when it was first reported. The only suggestion I have heard so far is the toxic pollution in Mexico City made people more susceptible to the virus and its effects.
Glen, viruses usually mutate in the direction of harmlessless, not virulence. It makes no sense for a parasite to kill its host.
V.true psephos 2019.
Wrong again ESJ, 2016
ESJ has become an agree-bot. Maybe the next dose of medication will work. 😉
[ESJ has become an agree-bot. Maybe the next dose of medication will work.]
He should be banned.
Psephos
[viruses usually mutate in the direction of harmlessless, not virulence. It makes no sense for a parasite to kill its host.]
A bit of an oversimplification. It depends on the virus being able to spread to new hosts before it kills its existing host. If a mutation arises wherever (swine world, bird world or human world) and is deadly to the host and efficient at transmitting to a new human host then we are in deep sh#t.
[He should be banned.]
Nah we have the technology, we can rebuild him. The Bionic ESJ Man. 😛
My guess is that “ESJ” doesn’t last 24 hours.
[Nah we have the technology, we can rebuild him. The Bionic ESJ Man. ]
Yep 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woOLEEu8RLI
[It depends on the virus being able to spread to new hosts before it kills its existing host.]
How does a virus know that its host is dead or even dying? Mutations that aid replication will be favoured, because it increases the probability of the virus spreading. But some mutations that aid replication could increase the chance of the host dying, which would reduce the chance of the virus spreading to other hosts.
So there must be an equilibrium between replicating more efficiently, but not making a host too sick, because this would reduce the opportunity for the virus to spread ot another host.
Of course the other factor is the use of drugs that enable people to recover from viral infections that would’ve previously allowed some viruses to kill the host.
Food for thought ShowsOn 2028.
Wong admits that government’s policy is for 450ppm stabilisation by 2140, not 2050.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/29/2584550.htm
Mutations are random, when they arise they compete with other viruses in the population and reproduce more successfully or less successfully. A single mutation may have an effect on different characteristics such as ease of transmission, severity of symptoms in host, susceptibility to antibodies from vaccination, speed of copying etc. That’s why a deadly pandemic is so unpredictable as to when it might occur. But how it will progress is more predictable. And the tactics and methods to fight the pandemic are known. The problem is balancing the potential disruption of implementing such methods as compulsory quarantine against the damage which it prevents.
Yes of course my comment was an oversimplification. It’s true that the long-term trend of viral mutation is towards less virulence, and the more virulent the virus is, the truer this is, because virulent viruses are more likely to kill their host and thus themselves. In western countries, over nearly 30 years now, HIV has gradually become less virulent. But we’re not likely to see this in one flu season, especially if the virus is so benign that it won’t kill anyone except a few elderly people who will die from any respiratory infection.
Anyone else tired of the media scare campaign on Swine Flu?
[Wong admits that government’s policy is for 450ppm stabilisation by 2140, not 2050.]
A serious error. So the proposed ETS will result in 50-100 years of the bad effects of climate change with the hope that it will subside to merely awkward impacts by 2140. Certainly strengthens the Greens’ claims that the scheme is too little too late.
[Anyone else tired of the media scare campaign on Swine Flu?]
Yes and no.
On the one hand, it is becoming a somewhat repetitive story, and most of the Australian victims so far have only been lightly affected.
On the other hand, if the authorities take it seriously enough to close schools (five closed in Vic at the moment), quarantine people, etc., you can hardly blame the media for treating it as a major story.
It is a serious error. Something that should be seriously debated publicly, as it relates to our targets and what we want from an international agreement – the two most important things at this point in time.
Unfortunately, it’s easier for the MSM to poke fun Turnbull.
The question in this household (my better half being a medico and all) is “why is Australia zooming up the swine flu league table so fast?”
Australians’ prolific travel habits? Plain bad luck? Or are we more OTT in our reaction to this than most other people?
Someone in Tasmania has been arrested for leaking budget documents.
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2009/05/29/76551_tasmania-news.html
The 2140 date is Bob Brown’s guess, not a date nominated by Wong.
Dyno, because we have a better public health system than most. We are testing many more people and therefore finding many more infected people. It’s a statistical artefact. The “number of cases” figures for most countries are meaningless.
Psephos
There is no strong evidence that the current version of swine flu will be with us long enough to mutate dramatically, either more or less virulent. What is very scary are all the other flu viruses breeding away in pigs and birds, any one of which might just strike it lucky and become a deadly pandemic for humans.
The difference between AIDS and flu is that ape AIDS to human AIDS was a rare, one way event. The AIDS virus has no other host to cross back into (except maybe a gorilla eating an AIDS infected human) whereas flu can cross back into pigs and continue to mix and breed in that population.
[It is a serious error. Something that should be seriously debated publicly, as it relates to our targets and what we want from an international agreement]
HI OZ, HOW ARE YOU TODAY?
[It’s a statistical artefact. The “number of cases” figures for most countries are meaningless.]
A bit dismissive of the medical systems in US, Canada, Europe, Japan aren’t we?
The only factor in influenza virii infections is the individuals immune system and underlying co-morbities.
If your immune system has encountered a similar virus in the past memory cells will stimulate the production of other cells to kill the virus.
If not they will soon adapt to kill the virus. The symptoms of ‘flu are not caused by the virus, they are caused by your immune system fighting it.
HIV is different – its nasty because it kills the T cells that would normally control the virus. Another nasty is EBV – which is never killed but lays dormant waiting for its time to spring back to life.
As virii go ‘flu is a pussycat.
The U.S. is already up to a few thousand cases, we are on 200. So per-capita that is about the same.
[HI OZ, HOW ARE YOU TODAY?]
Dude i’m with Oz on the caps thing. I enjoy reading your posts, but the caps thing is freaking irritating.
[The 2140 date is Bob Brown’s guess, not a date nominated by Wong.]
What is Wong’s date then. She must have an estimate if she is prepared to admit that the initial date of 2050 was an error.
[HIV is different – its nasty because it kills the T cells that would normally control the virus. ]
So is it the hope that anti-retro viral drugs will push HIV evolution in a direction that means the new HIV viruses won’t result in AIDS?
[The U.S. is already up to a few thousand cases, we are on 200. So per-capita that is about the same.]
So that’s quite surprising, isn’t it, given the US’s proximity to the source?