Morgan: 58-42/54.5-45.5

Unpredictable Roy Morgan has unloaded two very different sets of poll results: one using its usual face-to-face methodology, but based on one week’s sample rather than the recently more usual two, and the other a phone poll in which respondents were also asked about leadership preference, contrary to normal Morgan practice. The face-to-face poll is from 999 respondents, and shows Labor’s lead narrowing from 60-40 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is down 0.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent, while the Coalition is up a quite healthy 3.5 per cent to a still not-healthy 37.5 per cent. The Greens are down a point to 8 per cent.

However, the phone poll has Labor’s two-party lead at a more modest 54.5-45.5, from primary votes of 45 per cent Labor, 40.5 per cent Coalition and 7.5 per cent Greens. At present, a dedicated page for the phone poll result tells us only that Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 60.5 per cent to 26.5 per cent; that Rudd’s approval rating is 57.5 per cent; and that Turnbull’s approval rating is 43 per cent. Perhaps it will be fleshed out with more information at a later time.

Two other pieces of news:

• It seems Andrew Wilkie will run as an independent candidate for Denison at next year’s Tasmanian state election. Wilkie is the former Office of National Assessments analyst who quit over the Howard government’s actions before the Iraq war, and subsequently ran as a Greens candidate against John Howard in Bennelong in 2004 and as Bob Brown’s Tasmanian Senate running mate in 2007.

• A beleagured British Labour Party is considering sweeping electoral reforms, including an elected upper house. House of Commons reforms might presumably include some kind of preferential voting, which Britain’s three-plus party system badly needs, or more radically proportional representation, with which Britons have become familiar through elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, its members of European Parliament, and local government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,320 comments on “Morgan: 58-42/54.5-45.5”

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  2. Psephos

    “[I just saw a copy of this book “Major Farran’s Hat: Murder, Scandal and Britain’s War Against Jewish Terrorism, 1945-1948? by David Cesarani . Was there an organised payback after the Holocaust?

    Sorry, I don’t follow: payback by who directed at whom?”

    I was under the impression that the British were trying to slow Jewish immigration, and they were resisting the British by using ‘terrorism’. I don’t think that counts as ‘payback’ though…

  3. Thank you to everyone for the birthday wishes. Now just let me get old in peace!

    Adam

    My very limited understanding was that the Zionist movement was unhappy with the British rule in Palestine. After the war, when they had extra reason to aggrieved about the world, they expressed some of their anger at the British.

  5. Things came to a head when Zionist (Jewish) guerillas blew up the King David Hotel in Jerusalem in 1946. The hotel was the British delegation HQ and there were many British casualties. It was terrorism by any definition, as Israel did not exist as a separate state at the time.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing

    There were also many murders against the Arab population of Palestine both then and during and after the War for Independence in 1948.

  6. [Juliem, yep I always enjoy Albo’s performances ]

    It is good to see the Gvt take it up to the libs.

    Someone mentioned a while back that Rudd should go the mongrel, I think we are starting to see the first true offensive by Rudd and co.

  9. Juliem

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! (screams in horror)

    Hey good game on Sat… Very exciting. Very sad they lost, but they had their chances. I don’t know why the Dockers can’t play the Roos, must be some sort of mental block. Hopefully they’ll pull up against Richmond.

  10. [Someone mentioned a while back that Rudd should go the mongrel]

    I think he’s trying to avoid being Paul Keating.

  11. Socrates,
    I don’t think it was a fun place for anyone back then. Actually… not much has changed really…

  12. J-D @ 1128,

    For many in rural and regional Australia, administrative centralism to State capital cities is terrible. However, centralisation to Canberra would be an abomination before the Lord.

    My contention is that there is no evidence that Health and Hospitals would be run any better from Canberra than under State administrations. Further, that Roxon and Labor Government always indicated that such a move was not their preferred option but they would consider a referendum to do so if the States did not lift their game.

  14. [It could make sense.]

    Makes plenty of sense – it’s what real advocates of public transport in Sydney have been calling for for ages.

    It would do more in $70 million then what the CBD metro would do for $5.2 billion.

    It appears the Transport Minister, Mr. Campbell, who has been eeriely quite recently – leaving the defence of the metro proposals to the head bureaucrat, Les Wielinga, is a fan of light rail. So we have the minister supporting light rail and the Lord Mayor of Sydney supporting light rail, as well the local governments in Leichardt (where the proposed line is going) supporting light rail, but we still don’t have any and we’re probably not going to go. The article explains why:

    [The Herald understands Mr Campbell will take his proposal to the “transport cabinet” – ministers whose portfolios touch on transit issues, including the Planning Minister, Kristina Keneally, the Roads Minister, Michael Daley, the Treasurer, Eric Roozendaal, and the Finance Minister, Joe Tripodi – this morning.]

    I think (cynically) that it’s a strategic leak by the government to make it look as though they’re serious about public transport in the inner-west, to shore up support for Tebbut and Firth, without having to actually do anything.

  15. bob1234,

    Rudd is good, don’t get me wrong. But no one can fill Keating’s shoes in Parliament, he is so far above and beyond anyone else 🙂

  16. [More than a year of planning and design proceeded it though.]

    There’s two proposals mentioned in that article by the City of Sydney that I harp on about way too much. The CBD light rail loop and the inner-city/city-south loop to Green Square. They’ve been planned and costed for ages. They just need the money.

    If the government was serious, and this is why we know they aren’t, they’d pick up those plans and run with them.

  17. [Rudd is good, don’t get me wrong. But no one can fill Keating’s shoes in Parliament, he is so far above and beyond anyone else]

    Agreed – but we only see it like this because we’re not swinging voters 😛

  19. Rudd is good, don’t get me wrong. But no one can fill Keating’s shoes in Parliament, he is so far above and beyond anyone else

    Agreed – but we only see it like this because we’re not swinging voters.

    Well I have voted Liberal, Labor and Green so I think that makes me a swinging voter, and I agree, best liberal prime minister we ever had.

    I am amazed at the vitriol directed towards the Greens by the Labor hacks here, sorry folks, I will judge them on what they do, not by the hack attacks.

  20. Bigger news from NSW:

    [A CHAINSAW is hanging over the NSW public sector with the State Government considering a plan to cut government agencies from 102 to 12.

    In the biggest upheaval of the public sector in NSW history, a plan has been put to create 12 super departments and shed staff.]

    [It’s believed the Government’s Budget committee has studied the effectiveness of massive public sector job cuts under former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett, who eventually reduced the public service by almost 40 per cent.]

    Thank you Victoria!

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25532147-5006009,00.html

    At the last election the Libs wanted to cut tens of thousands of jobs so the public sector unions bankrolled Labor’s campaign. I’m not sure how this lines up with “job creation” and if the Libs were doing it there’d be a furore. But there’s probably some Labor explanation for it.

    Poor unions – Libs promise to decimate the public sector so they run to Labor. Now Labor’s promising the same thing, or even worse.

  22. Swan went into a higher gear today in QT and launched right into the Oppostion’s non-position on managing the collapse of tax revenue receipts.

  23. fredn,

    [
    I am amazed at the vitriol directed towards the Greens by the Labor hacks here, sorry folks, I will judge them on what they do, not by the hack attacks.
    ]

    please don’t count me amongst this group although I vote Labor #1 I think the Greens are alright and might find myself voting for them someday in the future (see Possum’s thread on this topic, “why do you not vote Green?”)

    Cheers 🙂 🙂

  25. Oz

    Interesting re the light rail proposal. I don’t know any details of the Sydney one but it is certainly cheaper to extend an existing system than build a new metro from scratch.

    The obvious thing to do was plan it and apply to Infrastructure Australia for funds. However if the missed that boat (why?) then you are right, they may not be serious.

  30. http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25534748-5005962,00.html

    [PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd’s use of the word “billion” to describe projected Government debt has provoked a raucous response from Opposition MPs in Parliament.

    Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull began question time today by asking Mr Rudd to express “in a sum of money” the maximum amount of Government debt the Budget would create.

    “Gross debt peaks at around about $300 billion,” Mr Rudd replied to cheers from the Opposition benches.]

    Yawn.

  31. Interesting new criminology survey:
    [ A MAJORITY of Australians continue to believe crime is soaring when it isn’t, and that courts treat offenders far too leniently when they don’t.

    The latest national survey of attitudes to crime and justice found 71 per cent favoured harsher sentences for lawbreakers, a figure which has remained relatively stable for two decades.

    A majority also believe that to fight terrorism, the Government should be allowed to detain suspects indefinitely, tap phone conversations and stop and search people in the street at random but not torture.

    Support for the death penalty continues to fall, with backing falling to 40 per cent, well down from more than 60 per cent two decades ago.]
    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25534879-29277,00.html

  34. [As a 6?4? person, I just want to say to QANTAS thanks for giving me more “choice”.]
    Next time you want to travel to London, you’ll have to take a barge. 😀

  35. [As a 6?4? person, I just want to say to QANTAS thanks for giving me more “choice”.]

    That’s not even remotely political! This is pollbludger…!

  36. [My very limited understanding was that the Zionist movement was unhappy with the British rule in Palestine. After the war, when they had extra reason to aggrieved about the world, they expressed some of their anger at the British.]

    A small minority of the Zionist movement, the ancestors of today’s Likud, resorted to terrorist tactics. They were opposed by the socialist Zionists, then a large majority of Palestinian Jews. The isue was not so much opposition to British rule per se, although obviously all the Zionist groups wanted that to end, but anger at the British refusal to allow Jewish immigration to Palestine of the 1 million stateless Jews languishing in DP camps in Germany. The British were resigned to getting out of Palestine, but they intended handing it over to the Arabs, and allowing mass Jewish immigration would have upset that plan.

  37. [As a 6?4? person, I just want to say to QANTAS thanks for giving me more “choice”.]

    As another tall person I ask for aisle seating where I can get part of my lower body actually into the aisle. On some occasions an attendant’s progress is impeded and she asks me to put my legs in to which I reply (whilst demonstrating that it is impossible) “where to do suggest I put them?” A few times I have then been invited to sit in a vacant exit row seat.
    The seat ing pitch is clearly unsuitable for a 95th percentile Australian male. If they are to be consistent the airlines should charge fares according to the total weight of passenger and all baggage – but this would be decried as discriminatory to the obese.
    What is the difference?

  39. [Speers hints that essential poll shows a swing against the govt.]

    Is this the first Sky News have heard of Essential?

    Funny how they will listen to non-Newspoll polling ONLY when it advances their own agenda.

  40. Psephos

    “The British were resigned to getting out of Palestine, but they intended handing it over to the Arabs, and allowing mass Jewish immigration would have upset that plan.”

    I thought the Brits favoured Partition? I thought they basically gave up on Palestine because it was costing them lives and they couldn’t get the Arabs and Jews to actually agree on any plan.

  41. Adam

    I wasn’t aware until I read a blurb about the book that Zionists actually targetted the British people and buildings in their own country after WWII.

  43. Sky News always discusses Essential on Mondays, this is the first time I can remember when they have revealed the TPP, it is usually the “other” questions.

  45. Psephos 1186

    “The British were resigned to getting out of Palestine, but they intended handing it over to the Arabs, and allowing mass Jewish immigration would have upset that plan.”

    Isn’t that “handing it over to the Arabs” the Zionist spin? Wouldn’t it be more accurate to say “handing it back”? The Arabs were the legal and traditional owners of most of the land we now call Israel. When the Ottoman Turkish and then British Empires left they had just as legitimate an expectation to getting their independance back as any other conquered people. Most of the Jewish persons who emigrated to Israel did not have any middle eastern ancestry – they were displaced Europeans, not descendants of the diaspora. It was very convenient for Europeans for them to go to Palestine, but not for the Palestinians.

  47. An amusing item to explain for fans of Workchoices, labour market deregulation, flexibility, or other forms of slavery:
    http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/05/23/refuted-economic-doctrines-8-us-labor-market-superiority/

    One of the arguments in support of approaches like deregulation is that greater flexibility in labour markets (i.e freedom to sack people or lower wages) helps in recessions and to reduce unemployment. Lower unemployment rates in USA compared to Europe were used to “prove” this claim. Its a false claim, as the GFC now demonstrates – US unemployment is higher than unemployment in Europe (and here).

  48. [US unemployment is higher than unemployment in Europe (and here)]
    I was shocked to find out yesterday that unemployment in California (which alone is I think the 5th or 6th biggest economy in the world) is 11%, which is far above the rate for the entire U.S.

  49. ShowsOn (#1184),
    Thanks for the suggestion. Buying a barge may be cheaper than flying QANTAS. It’ll certainly be more comfortable.

    Bob1234 (#1185),
    You are clearly a wealthy midget. However I do accept you charge of the issue not being ‘political’. My humble apologies.

    BK (#1185),
    Agree completely. Thanks for sharing the pain…

    At least Essential cheers me up. I will print out the subsequent Poyltrend chart from Possum’s blog and take it with me next time I fly QANTAS…

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