| # | % | Swing | 2PP | Proj. | |
| Varga (IND) | 574 | 3.3% | |||
| Totten (CEC) | 44 | 0.3% | |||
| Ter Horst (IND) | 145 | 0.8% | |||
| Zagami (IND) | 927 | 5.3% | |||
| Boni (IND) | 302 | 1.7% | |||
| Du Plessis (FFP) | 158 | 0.9% | -0.8% | ||
| Tagliaferri (ALP) | 6,748 | 38.5% | -0.4% | 46.7% | 47.1% |
| Hollett (CDP) | 300 | 1.7% | -0.2% | ||
| Lorrimar (IND) | 136 | 0.8% | |||
| Carles (GRN) | 7,802 | 44.5% | 17.5% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| Wainwright | 400 | 2.3% | |||
| TOTAL | 17,536 |
Monday
Here’s me on the by-election in Crikey.
Sunday
I’ve knocked up a map showing the primary vote swing to the Greens at the different booths. No visible pattern can be discerned, but I’ve done it so here it is. I’ve also tried to find correlations between votes, swings and demographics, and found only one worth mentioning: the Greens swing had a correlation with the Italian-speaking population of -0.47 and an R-squared value of 0.22. No doubt statisticians will tell me a sample of 10 booths doesn’t mean very much, but the scatterplot looks persuasive to my unpractised eye and it makes all kinds of sense intuitively. Equally interesting was the lack of a significant correlation between the Greens swing and the Liberal vote from the state election. That would seem to argue against the notion that a static Labor vote was swamped by Liberals moving to the Greens. Note that the lowest swing was recorded at a Catholic primary school, Christ the King in Beaconsfield. For what it’s worth, Alan Carpenter was handing out how-to-vote cards there.
Saturday
9.20pm. Antony Green: “There is a very important bit of history in this reslt. This is the first time at a state or federal election that the Greens have outpolled the Labor Party on primary votes. All previous cases where the Greens have won or come close to victory have seen Labor ahead on the primary vote and the Greens chasing Labor down on Liberal and Independent preferences.”
9.10pm. All together now …
Mea culpa to Greens pianist Geoffrey, who was told by me that his candidate would fall short by about 52-48, despite his enthusiastic protestations to the contrary.
8.42pm. So, the new maths for our already very exciting Legislative Assembly: Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals 4, Independent 3, Greens 1.
8.39pm. Carles now leads on the WAEC’s two-party count 8745 to 7370.
8.32pm. Now the WAEC has the Greens lead at a definitively insurmountable 7421 to 6395. I would like to thank them though for that little moment of excitement, while reminding them that that isn’t their brief.
8.30pm. Now the WAEC says Carles leads 6056 to 5535, which sounds still more like it. Too much to rein in on postals.
8.27pm. Beaconsfield PS and 1306 postal votes added. Despite what the 2PP says, I don’t see how Labor could win from those primaries.
8.24pm. WAEC count now has Carles leading 4900 to 4660, which sounds more like it. However, it does suggest that Labor are doing slightly better on preferences than I or Antony had projected. It might not even be over yet. But again, who knows.
8.22pm. So, to summarise. Thanks to the WAEC, I have absolutely no idea what’s going on. If anyone from the WAEC is reading this, please send a fact-finding mission to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission to find out how to conduct a count properly.
8.19pm. Antony Green also doesn’t appear to have any real world preference figures he can use. If the WAEC has decided that we only need to be given a lump sum two-party count, I can only say that they’ve bungled once again.
8.15pm. Hmm. The WAEC has a big, uninformative “notional distribution of preferences” which has Tagliaferri leading 4071-3824. This is extremely exasperating. Where are these votes from? Why haven’t they been recording them booth by booth like everybody else does?
8.04pm. Big win for Carles at Fremantle Primary School. I’m calling it for her.
8.01pm. Carles also has a big win at East Fremantle Primary School, making it very tempting to call it for her …
7.59pm. Carles wins the upmarket Bicton booth.
7.53pm. Carles wins Richmond Primary School, up near Bicton way, which gives Zagami his first big result. Nonetheless, that has Carles’ lead narrowing a little further on my estimate. I might also note that the Greens didn’t do a postal vote mailout.
7.52pm. ABC has Christ the King bringing Carles down only a little, to 53.2 per cent (exactly where I have it). Tagliaferri still needs some more big results.
7.46pm. Very good result for Tagliaferri at Christ the King School makes things interesting again. Interesting to note that Alan Carpenter was handing out how to vote cards there …
7.43pm. VERY surprised no other candidate is over 5 per cent.
7.41pm. Re the previous comment – White Gum Valley, the most Italian booth of all, was also a big win for Carles. No particular reason to expect the nearby Beaconsfield booths to behave differently.
7.23pm. Beaconsfield and Christ the King are two strongly Italian booths that are yet to report – but so was Palmyra, and Carles won that.
7.22pm. Another good result for Carles in White Gum Valley – 46 per cent to 39.5 per cent. Minor party vote lower than I might have thought.
7.21pm. Antony now has the Greens 2.5 per cent in front after preference projection.
7.20pm. Tagliaferri finally wins a booth, the solidly working class Phoenix.
7.18pm. Carles wins Anglican Church Hall as well, which is in a similar area.
7.16pm. Greens win the Palmyra booth as well, which isn’t their heartland. I suggest my projection flatters Labor a bit.
7.14pm. Antony’s projection has the Greens 3.4 per cent ahead.
7.13pm. St Patrick’s in – Carles wins the primary vote, but check out that projection …
7.08pm. Few teething problems with the table as usual – working through them.
7.06pm. 622 pre-polls added (along with Rottnest Island) – there’s reason to believe these might behave unusually, but at they’re at least a little bit exciting for the Greens.
6.37pm. Come on, you’d think at least Rottnest might have reported by now … Anyway, I’ve been doing a bit of work so I do get a projected two-party result, based on the booth figures calculated by Antony Green. I wouldn’t stake my wages on its accuracy though.
6.14pm. First trickle of daylight saving votes coming in. Big no majority, but it doesn’t mean anything yet.
6.05pm. Some explanations of what you will see above. Booth matching will be employed for the primary vote swings, but not the two-party preferred vote as no figures are available in Labor versus Greens terms from the state election. The figures will at first be estimates, but will be replaced with real world numbers as booths report their notional two-party counts.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Fremantle by-election count. I don’t think I’ll have much to say about the daylight saving referendum, which you will in any case find covered more than adequately at ABC Elections.
A lot of this is speculation but I think the main variable is who Labor runs at a candidate. If they can find someone amazing then maybe they can win it back but I think barring that and assuming Carles develops a profile she’s got it.
Time will tell.
But now Liberal and labor have a thing in common in wa for years now the libs have been losing safe seats to independants churchlands,alfred cove nedlands(almost) and the nats who I recon could pick seats like pilbara, North west coastal of labor per haps both partys could make deals to prefrence each other to keep these seats for yrs Labors prefrences have been allowing the nats/indenpendants to win in liberal seats this could change politics in wa
[Colin Barnett just cost the ALP another seat in the LA and it cost him nothing LOL!]
I personally don’t see how letting the Greens win in the longer term benefits the Liberals.
There is enough dead wood ALP MPs in Victoria to give him a safer seat.
I can see Melbourne being a Greens seat down the track.
I think if the Libs didnt run the ALP would struggle there.
[Jim Mcginty would have had a large personal vote, the loss of that hurt the ALP.]
I might also note that McGinty has been as quiet as a mouse over the past few weeks, not counting his diving expeditions.
Listening to the BBC Newshour on News Radio: The Congress Party in India won that election very decisively, not at all predicted by the pundits.
A rejection of religious fundamentalism.
[Carles had two candidates preferencing her and Tagliaferri had 7.]
None of whom polled at all well. The result was determined by the transfer of the Liberal vote to the Greens. That’s all. At the state election they polled 57.8% between them.
You wonder if Alan Carpenter will stay on the back bench for another 3 years or so?
[Colin Barnett just cost the ALP another seat in the LA and it cost him nothing LO]
I don’t see what Colin Barnett had to do with it at all.
The idea that Liberal voters all moved as a block to Zagami and The Greens is ridiculous. Many, many Liberal voters would have voted Labor. At least 10% of them if preference flows from other contests are consulted, but probably more as those flows that I know of are optional preferential.
The ALP is hemorrhaging voters out of its left arm at every single election. The swing to Green is not all these “tactical” Liberals.
Sam, let the ALP think that this was a “protest vote” (protest against who? Barnett?!) and that the voters of Fremantle will come to their senses at the next election. It’s that attitude that turned a safe seat into a virtual marginal at the State election and lost it at this election.
[perhaps the dawning of a new era
I wish, but I don’t think so. Baby steps.]
Oz
a small step for man , a giant step for greenkind
I’m sorry for asking a lazy question but is this the person who ran for the Greens at the last general election? and I congratule the Greens on actually winning a lower house seat.
Perhaps it’s a result of Australia’s two party dominance of politics. It seems Liberal voters will vote for any non-Labor candidate, regardless of their policies. But i can’t help thinking that it’s somewhat illogical.
Did the Greens in Fremantle campaign on federal issues, in particular an ETS?
If alannah does become leader labor certaily wont win canning i live in the seat and don randall is very popular but alannah is also and thats what may have dilvered her the seat I predict she will be leader Labor tends not to put people they think are to inexperinced as leader which wyatt is and they may risk doing what the libs did while in oppostion losing there leadership talent apart from alannah and wyatt who else is there carps like what robert taylor suggested (what a joke) the best thing for labor would be to run alannah as leader against col where she may win or lose if she loses thay have a back up wyatt but if they run wyatt and he loses who else is the no one and history tells us colin has a good chance of winning all state minority governments have increasted there majority some one landslides and wa likes to give a government 8 yrs in as well wyatt has the time to wait aswell
[The idea that Liberal voters all moved as a block to Zagami and The Greens is ridiculous.]
No it isn’t. Some Liberals will have voted Labor out of distaste for the Greens, but not many. Most will have taken the same view as Glen, that dishing Labor is the main game. Every Liberal I know in federal Melbourne (and I know a few) votes Green in the hope of beating Tanner.
Does anyone know if the Democrats ever held state seats?
Glen!! True the Greens are a change of winning the state seat of Melbourne but that depends on the Liberal vote not finally recovering to its pre-2001 voting levels which I am sure will happen at some point of time
right oz the same attuide that the libs had that lost them churchlands alfred cove labor for too long has treated there safe seats like crap they still do look at cannington is just one example of a Dudd hack of a MP you can not take advantage of safe seats anymore labor has now learnt the hard way like the libs before them
We also need to remember that Freo is the state capital of the Green-voting classes. There are probably more painters than wharfies in Freo these days. This is an inherently unstable and unreliable voting base, who enjoy casting protest votes. To see this result as some sort of seismic rejection of Labor by its base vote is incorrect. I doubt the Greens would have won a by-election in Balga tonight.
Psephos and others focussing on ALP not shifting much is not much help as analysis. Without a Lib candidate at least 5% of the ALP vote would be people who would normally vote Lib1 and ALP2. These are voters who dislike smaller parties. So the ALP has suffered a 5% plus loss of votes. Without some major stuffup by Greens ALP will struggle to win next time. ALP is in trouble in Fed Melbourne – Senate results in Melbourne last time would have given Greens the seat. Only a strong personal vote for Tanner stopped it. Will be tough call next time.
I don’t think the Democrats ever won a lower house seat, I believe in SA they came close to winning a seat in the southern suburbs of Adelaide
I think I’m going to take Oz’s advice and just let you believe that.
this is a big blow for labor fremantle was considered the jewel in labors crown in the state no more
[We also need to remember that Freo is the state capital of the Green-voting classes.]
This is the icing on the cake.
Antony Green: “There is a very important bit of history in this reslt. This is the first time at a state or federal election that the Greens have outpolled the Labor Party on primary votes. All previous cases where the Greens have won or come close to victory have seen Labor ahead on the primary vote and the Greens chasing Labor down on Liberal and Independent preferences.”
there are allot of voters who hate the greens and other minor partys and will allways vote either liberal or labor
Winston went:
“Perhaps it’s a result of Australia’s two party dominance of politics. It seems Liberal voters will vote for any non-Labor candidate, regardless of their policies. But i can’t help thinking that it’s somewhat illogical.”
Australia’s entire political history has really been a contest between Labour/Labor and non-Labour/Labor
It’s only been relatively recently – the last couple of decades – that professional marketing and branding by the political parties has changed the labels and the way that we think “we think” about politics.
But maybe, despite the glam and the marketing (which is really only aimed at swingable voters anyway) nothing much has greatly changed at it’s core, it’s just become a bit more complicated.
I may be incorrect but at the last Federal Election Tanner won Melbourne with somethign like 53% of the primary vote.
Tanner should be confortable in holding it.
The Greens have two problems at the next election, first it will be about the Economy and Turnbull is not the right wing nut job that Howard was.
yer your hippe/leftie tree huggings types the result of the socialist allaince clearly shows how left the seat is
The SA seat of Mitcham was held by the Democrats from 1977 when its formerly Liberal member, Robin Millhouse, brought his breakaway “New Liberal Movement” under the wing of the newly formed party. He retained the seat as a Democrat in 1979, and was was eventually appointed to the Supreme Court in 1982 by a Liberal government that hoped to win his seat back at a by-election. However, Heather Southcott retained it for the Democrats before losing to Liberal candidate Stephen Baker at the general election later that year.
Look this is an outstanding result for the Greens but lets not get excited for the WA ALP are at a low point and Fremantle is changing but lets not for a moment think that we can start calling federal seats.
turnbull will lose the election you lefties may hate johnie but it was him who allowed the liberals to be in power so long he could attract the tradional labor unoinst voter or as they are now called howard battlers malcom carnt even stick to a single policy postion
So when’s the last time a minor party (excluding the Nationals) won elections in two different seats?
Oh wait, that would’ve been One Nation.
Damn, I had almost erased them out of my memory.
australia is still a more conservative country than the left likes to admit it is espacially wa allot of the tradtional labor voters are what i would consder conservitve its just they cop for the whole class debate that labor represents the worker which it clearly does not now like its unoin buddys
[Look this is an outstanding result for the Greens but lets not get excited for the WA ALP are at a low point and Fremantle is changing but lets not for a moment think that we can start calling federal seats.]
I don’t think anyone’s calling Federal seats, just speculating about The Greens chances.
And then there is Gonwyn Pike and a couple of her colleagues in the Victorian Legislative Assembly.
The so called Howard battlers are a myth for the seats that elected Howard are the same seats that elected Hawke, Keating and Frazier and now Rudd
and those types are the ones who hate the greens and would rather vote liberal
[I don’t think anyone’s calling Federal seats, just speculating about The Greens chances.]
Stuff them
this is a seismic shift in how politics is palyed in this country
We need a viable opposition,might as well be greens
I wonder what Insiders will be saying about this by-election tomorrow?
Psephos @ 267
Sorry but there is no evidence for your anecdotal argument. I don’t think the Lib voters in Melbourne have turned Green. Lib first preferences were 24% in 96 and 23% in 2007. It’s the Labor voters who have gone for the Greens. And the 2PP hasn’t changed much over the that time either.
then mexican explain how a howard the right wing nut job your words not mine was in power for ten years and even managed to servive 1998 when gst sould have booted him out
Mexicanbeemer – Tanner had a TP result of about 53/47 but if the Senate vote in Melbourne had been repeated in HR the result would have been about the reverse.
OZ! Good old fashsion nazel gazing! the next Victorian state election will be interesting for the Liberals are going nowhere, the Government has several big issues facing it and the Greens could beneift from this.
Pike is struggling in Melbourne but can she hang on, maybe but alot depends on what the Liberals do.
The next state poll will be about Public Transport, Roads, Planning and Water now unlike the federal issues these are strong areas for the Greens therefore we could see some swing towards them but alot will depend on how active they are and thus far they have a low profile.
the greens could never be an oppostion they agree and work with labor too much how can a far left party like the greens be one of the 2 major partys either labor would have to lose all of its support from the unoins to the greens and they take there place or the libs become defunct and labor takes there place as the right wing party
[I wonder what Insiders will be saying about this by-election tomorrow?]
If there’s any group that thinks The Greens are irrelevant ferals, it’s the mainstream media. Particularly the dinosaurs that frequent Insiders.
[this is a seismic shift in how politics is palyed in this country
We need a viable opposition,might as well be greens]
I reckon, but I also know it’s going to be incredibly difficul going from a seat here, a seat there, to getting a decent cluster. I have little doubt it will happen soon enough but there is a tendency to latch onto a good result as the beginning of Green dominance when there’s still a long way to go for Greenies.
Also dont forget about the seat of Richmond too the Libs are a joke in Victoria and the protest vote could be on.