| # | % | Swing | 2PP | Proj. | |
| Varga (IND) | 574 | 3.3% | |||
| Totten (CEC) | 44 | 0.3% | |||
| Ter Horst (IND) | 145 | 0.8% | |||
| Zagami (IND) | 927 | 5.3% | |||
| Boni (IND) | 302 | 1.7% | |||
| Du Plessis (FFP) | 158 | 0.9% | -0.8% | ||
| Tagliaferri (ALP) | 6,748 | 38.5% | -0.4% | 46.7% | 47.1% |
| Hollett (CDP) | 300 | 1.7% | -0.2% | ||
| Lorrimar (IND) | 136 | 0.8% | |||
| Carles (GRN) | 7,802 | 44.5% | 17.5% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| Wainwright | 400 | 2.3% | |||
| TOTAL | 17,536 |
Monday
Here’s me on the by-election in Crikey.
Sunday
I’ve knocked up a map showing the primary vote swing to the Greens at the different booths. No visible pattern can be discerned, but I’ve done it so here it is. I’ve also tried to find correlations between votes, swings and demographics, and found only one worth mentioning: the Greens swing had a correlation with the Italian-speaking population of -0.47 and an R-squared value of 0.22. No doubt statisticians will tell me a sample of 10 booths doesn’t mean very much, but the scatterplot looks persuasive to my unpractised eye and it makes all kinds of sense intuitively. Equally interesting was the lack of a significant correlation between the Greens swing and the Liberal vote from the state election. That would seem to argue against the notion that a static Labor vote was swamped by Liberals moving to the Greens. Note that the lowest swing was recorded at a Catholic primary school, Christ the King in Beaconsfield. For what it’s worth, Alan Carpenter was handing out how-to-vote cards there.
Saturday
9.20pm. Antony Green: “There is a very important bit of history in this reslt. This is the first time at a state or federal election that the Greens have outpolled the Labor Party on primary votes. All previous cases where the Greens have won or come close to victory have seen Labor ahead on the primary vote and the Greens chasing Labor down on Liberal and Independent preferences.”
9.10pm. All together now …
Mea culpa to Greens pianist Geoffrey, who was told by me that his candidate would fall short by about 52-48, despite his enthusiastic protestations to the contrary.
8.42pm. So, the new maths for our already very exciting Legislative Assembly: Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals 4, Independent 3, Greens 1.
8.39pm. Carles now leads on the WAEC’s two-party count 8745 to 7370.
8.32pm. Now the WAEC has the Greens lead at a definitively insurmountable 7421 to 6395. I would like to thank them though for that little moment of excitement, while reminding them that that isn’t their brief.
8.30pm. Now the WAEC says Carles leads 6056 to 5535, which sounds still more like it. Too much to rein in on postals.
8.27pm. Beaconsfield PS and 1306 postal votes added. Despite what the 2PP says, I don’t see how Labor could win from those primaries.
8.24pm. WAEC count now has Carles leading 4900 to 4660, which sounds more like it. However, it does suggest that Labor are doing slightly better on preferences than I or Antony had projected. It might not even be over yet. But again, who knows.
8.22pm. So, to summarise. Thanks to the WAEC, I have absolutely no idea what’s going on. If anyone from the WAEC is reading this, please send a fact-finding mission to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission to find out how to conduct a count properly.
8.19pm. Antony Green also doesn’t appear to have any real world preference figures he can use. If the WAEC has decided that we only need to be given a lump sum two-party count, I can only say that they’ve bungled once again.
8.15pm. Hmm. The WAEC has a big, uninformative “notional distribution of preferences” which has Tagliaferri leading 4071-3824. This is extremely exasperating. Where are these votes from? Why haven’t they been recording them booth by booth like everybody else does?
8.04pm. Big win for Carles at Fremantle Primary School. I’m calling it for her.
8.01pm. Carles also has a big win at East Fremantle Primary School, making it very tempting to call it for her …
7.59pm. Carles wins the upmarket Bicton booth.
7.53pm. Carles wins Richmond Primary School, up near Bicton way, which gives Zagami his first big result. Nonetheless, that has Carles’ lead narrowing a little further on my estimate. I might also note that the Greens didn’t do a postal vote mailout.
7.52pm. ABC has Christ the King bringing Carles down only a little, to 53.2 per cent (exactly where I have it). Tagliaferri still needs some more big results.
7.46pm. Very good result for Tagliaferri at Christ the King School makes things interesting again. Interesting to note that Alan Carpenter was handing out how to vote cards there …
7.43pm. VERY surprised no other candidate is over 5 per cent.
7.41pm. Re the previous comment – White Gum Valley, the most Italian booth of all, was also a big win for Carles. No particular reason to expect the nearby Beaconsfield booths to behave differently.
7.23pm. Beaconsfield and Christ the King are two strongly Italian booths that are yet to report – but so was Palmyra, and Carles won that.
7.22pm. Another good result for Carles in White Gum Valley – 46 per cent to 39.5 per cent. Minor party vote lower than I might have thought.
7.21pm. Antony now has the Greens 2.5 per cent in front after preference projection.
7.20pm. Tagliaferri finally wins a booth, the solidly working class Phoenix.
7.18pm. Carles wins Anglican Church Hall as well, which is in a similar area.
7.16pm. Greens win the Palmyra booth as well, which isn’t their heartland. I suggest my projection flatters Labor a bit.
7.14pm. Antony’s projection has the Greens 3.4 per cent ahead.
7.13pm. St Patrick’s in – Carles wins the primary vote, but check out that projection …
7.08pm. Few teething problems with the table as usual – working through them.
7.06pm. 622 pre-polls added (along with Rottnest Island) – there’s reason to believe these might behave unusually, but at they’re at least a little bit exciting for the Greens.
6.37pm. Come on, you’d think at least Rottnest might have reported by now … Anyway, I’ve been doing a bit of work so I do get a projected two-party result, based on the booth figures calculated by Antony Green. I wouldn’t stake my wages on its accuracy though.
6.14pm. First trickle of daylight saving votes coming in. Big no majority, but it doesn’t mean anything yet.
6.05pm. Some explanations of what you will see above. Booth matching will be employed for the primary vote swings, but not the two-party preferred vote as no figures are available in Labor versus Greens terms from the state election. The figures will at first be estimates, but will be replaced with real world numbers as booths report their notional two-party counts.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Fremantle by-election count. I don’t think I’ll have much to say about the daylight saving referendum, which you will in any case find covered more than adequately at ABC Elections.
[the greens could never be an oppostion they agree and work with labor too much how can a far left party like the greens be one of the 2 major partys either labor would have to lose all of its support from the unoins to the greens and they take there place or the libs become defunct and labor takes there place as the right wing party]
OR
The libs continue their inevitable decline into the abyss and the greens are seen by the voters as the only credible alternative
🙂
i can see it now if the greens where ever in power australia would break of the allaince with the u.s and forge one with chavez and castro and turn austrlia into a socailist utopia
Winson in the 1999 state poll the Liberals polled 33% last time they polled low 20s% the ALP were mostly unchanged with the Greens polling up over 10% I susgest that shows a swing from Liberal to the Greens within the seat of Melbourne.
Wakefield! Thank you for the correction.
Sothernboy! Howard was in Governemnt for 11 years for several reasons, first a booming economy, secondary an ALP that left office seriously unpopular and a decade of the ALP failing to address the reasons for this instead focusing on stunts and lazy policy development with poor leadership.
Anthony Green has my back… 🙂
[i can see it now if the greens where ever in power australia would break of the allaince with the u.s and forge one with chavez and castro and turn austrlia into a socailist utopia]
Some call it the Domino theory, others the red peril, whereas we here at K.A.O.S. call it the pearls of pauline
😉
that will never happend another concervitve party would form like thats why the liberal party formed because the concervitive force before them UAP declined and there was know party that atractted the middle class as menzies called it the forgtton class gusface you are wrong
this just shows labor that the greens are also a threat to them for too long they have loved having greens prefrences to get them over in marginals
I would suggest that what happened at the 2002 state election was that most of the Green vote was from Labor and that this was masked by voter switching from the Liberals to Labor (I think that a comment of a similar nature was made by either Anthony (not 100% sure though, it might have been Kerry) on the election coverage following a comment that it was Liberal voters switching to the Greens).
Socialist? The Greens can’t even spell the word. Oh, wait…
I don’t see a new conservatitive party forming for a start who is the modern day Menzies and the issues that shaped that era are different to today’s issues and really the problems for the Liberal Party will be worked though just as the ALP overcame its problems.
the only new conservative party would be a merged entity of Liberals and Nats into a Party with a new name.
but the point is the liberals and labor still dont see the greens as a threat of taking the 2 party place of them if they did they with the media would try to distroy them like they did with one nation
[the only new conservative party would be a merged entity of Liberals and Nats into a Party with a new name]
and aint it worked a treat in Qld
Mexican @ 303
Have a closer look at the results.
I was talking about the Federal seat but no matter.
Your comparison of the state seat in 99 and 2006 doesn’t stack up.
[the ALP were mostly unchanged]
Wrong. The Labor vote dropped more than the Lib vote – from 59% to 45%. Main reason was there were only 3 candidates (and no Greens) in 99 and 6 candidates in 2006.
They already tried and are still trying. It hasn’t worked so far and probably won’t ever.
Gusface they didnt have a new name and it needs to be national IMHO…
Glen do you really want to be in the same party as Barnaby Joyce?
[Gusface they didnt have a new name and it needs to be national IMHO…]
Glen
This is the clarion call to the Libs
unless you dudes sort your shite out
YOU WILL END UP AS THE MINORS
BTW 90% of us here have been trying to tell you guys this since 2007 and I think the electorate is moving on
Vale liberalus
Well look at this this way, Barnett will haver more trouble getting legislation through the lower house, especially environmental legislation with the Greens now having the balance of power in the lower house.
Yes Adam, all non-Labor centre-right politicians should be in the same political organisation, we have no need for country parties or city parties. Canada has shown that Conservatives divided fall but united stand to gain alot.
I hope i see the day that there is a single main stream conservative party in Australia.
[the only new conservative party would be a merged entity of Liberals and Nats into a Party with a new name.]
And it will be called….. The Unified Reactionary Agrarian Socialist Conservative Party of Australia.
[I hope i see the day that there is a single main stream conservative party in Australia.]
I don’t think our political spectrum divides in the same way as Canada, because Labor is a centrist party as much as it is a centre-Left party. That means the anti-Labor parties represent all sorts of contradictory positions that can’t be easily unified.
I don’t see the Greens winning anywhere much in the medium term future if there is a proper Lab/Lib contest going on in the seat, and that includes Fremantle at the next state election.
However, if the Liberals do start to pull out of contests where they don’t have much chance then there are a few other places where they could cause a similar close Green vs Labor race.
In WA state politics, Williagee is one example. In 2008, the results were ALP 51%, Lib 31%, Grn 17.4%. So if the Libs pulled out and a good many of their supporters wanted to hit the ALP, then it could be close.
However, games like this might be fun occasionally, but they will not last long if the Libs regard the Green candidates seriously rather than just ways of registering anti-Labor votes.
Canada will not have many Conservative Governments after it adopts PR because it has a natural left wing majority.
Which is why they wont and they still have FPTP.
Thanks Winston! I will revisit the VEC before I provide any further comment on Green vote!
When the Left get back in they are likely to adopt it because the NDP are likely to require it as party of a Coalition deal.
[Well look at this this way, Barnett will haver more trouble getting legislation through the lower house, especially environmental legislation with the Greens now having the balance of power in the lower house.]
How?
Labor+Greens is still the same amount of seats as Labor on its own was before.
If he had a majority before the election on a piece of legislation, he’d have a majority after as well.
Ta Mr bowe for a quite informative and possibly historic thread
sometimes you really excel yourself
well done
Gusface
Yep, excellent job William, both he and I were wrong – but at least Freo hasn’t gone to the Libs 🙂
Greens winning one of these inner metro big city seats has been waiting to happen for years – often threatened, never quite got there one way or the other. And I agree with Antony; Labor could have its work cut out getting this one back, especially if the new member does a good job.
On Dems holding state seats (#268), Norm Sanders was elected as a Dem for the Tasmanian House of Assembly seat of Denison in the 1980 Denison by-election and re-elected in 1982; of course it was much easier for a Dem to get in under Hare-Clark than in a single-seat system.
[Yep, excellent job William, both he and I were wrong – but at least Freo hasn’t gone to the Libs ]
And those of a pure heart can sleep a little easier tonite, saurons minions were smashed yet again, tho instead of the numoreans it was the halflings who prevailed
😉
[Greens winning one of these inner metro big city seats has been waiting to happen for years – often threatened, never quite got there one way or the other. And I agree with Antony; Labor could have its work cut out getting this one back, especially if the new member does a good job.]
And remember Freo is no longer the home of the Wharfies and Meat workers and migrant women who worked in the Mills & Wares Biscuit Factory etc – it’s now a Bohemian Arty-Farty type of demographic – well educated types.
Glen if you think Joyce is “mainstream” you haven’t been listening to him recently. He’s completely crackers. Nor is he a conservative. He’s a sort of hysterical rural redneck populist. If you get in bed, politically speaking, with people like him you will *never* win another election.
[Glen if you think Joyce is “mainstream” you haven’t been listening to him recently. He’s completely crackers.]
personally I think he has been drinking the drench*
*Drench is what you give cows etc orally to kill worms, tho it sends livestock a bit “loco” for a while
This is state seast so it is unlikely that Rudd’s failure thus far to act with any sort of positive leadership on climate change would have made much difference to the result.
Gusface
lol.
There are drenches and drenches… He is one of the ones who missed out on his foot in mouth one…
It’s worth noting that both the UK and Canada, which are probably the closest comparisons to Australia’s political systems in terms of scale, have third political parties with about 10% of the seats in the national lower house. And that’s without preferences, which can result in Cunningham-style results where the Greens can win without coming close to the ALP on primaries.
I’m not saying that the NDP and the Lib Dems are the same as the Australian Greens, but there is that room for a third party, even with a traditional two-party system to get about 20% of the vote.
[I’m not saying that the NDP and the Lib Dems are the same as the Australian Greens, but there is that room for a third party, even with a traditional two-party system to get about 20% of the vote.]
It should be noted that Adele Carles didn’t make any hare-brained promises or statements which would’ve frightened the horses – she didn’t look like your typical Feral Green type.
If Bob Brown and the Federal Greens adopted the same professional attitude, maybe they might win those seats, instead of looking like residents from Nimbin.
The Lib Dems though have gone from a major party to a rump. I don’t know much about the history of the NDP but they’ve been quite successful as a third party. However, even for them there was more space on the left as they became the part of organised Labor.
Other than ecological sustainability, the philosophy of The Greens in Australia is harder to pin down (at least in terms of perception). This is not to say they can’t become a third force akin to the Lib Dems or NDP but rather than being reduced to it, or tapping into a natural base they’re having to carve out their own – and so far, doing a very good job of it.
[It should be noted that Adele Carles didn’t make any hare-brained promises or statements which would’ve frightened the horses – she didn’t look like your typical Feral Green type.
If Bob Brown and the Federal Greens adopted the same professional attitude, maybe they might win those seats, instead of looking like residents from Nimbin.]
I think Adele Carles is more like the norm when it comes to Greens parliamentarians and members rather than the exception. Of course, this may not be your experience, but I daresay I’ve met more than you have.
[I think Adele Carles is more like the norm when it comes to Greens parliamentarians and members rather than the exception. Of course, this may not be your experience, but I daresay I’ve met more than you have.]
I’m taliking public perception and how some members behave when protesting by getting themselves arrested etc – in the general public’s mind it paints them as radical ferals and are tantamount to Terrorists. This may not be true, but it’s amazing what 30 seconds of footage on the news can do to paint people perceptions of someone.
It’s true that the Liberal Democrats have their origins in the original Liberal major party, but it’s worth remembering that they had effectivley disappeared before the emergence of the SDP in the 1980s provided them with a new lease on life, so like the Greens they have had to build up from nothing.
The general public think that Greens are tantamount to terrorists? Really?
[It’s true that the Liberal Democrats have their origins in the original Liberal major party, but it’s worth remembering that they had effectivley disappeared before the emergence of the SDP in the 1980s provided them with a new lease on life, so like the Greens they have had to build up from nothing.]
Ah cool, I didn’t know that.
[The general public think that Greens are tantamount to terrorists? Really?]
Well amongst our more ultra conservative members they are, for example One Nation Voters, Family first, Christian Democrats etc.
People like that are never gonna vote Green. The major parties very rarely get a majority of the vote, and there’s probably 30-40% of the country who would never vote for each major party.
Actually, the Greens are aiming for the next 10%, who are largely Labor voters in inner-city seats with a high education, they are similar in a lot of ways to most current Greens voters. This would also put the Greens at the levels of the LibDems and the NDP.
Hi All,
Just got home from Freo.
While not normally being one to gloat….
Frank, how would you like those eggs you were talking about, fried, poached or scrambled?
😉
[Frank, how would you like those eggs you were talking about, fried, poached or scrambled?]
I wasn’t the only one who called it wrong – so did young William 🙂
Adele only won because there was no Liberal Candidate 🙂
[Adele only won because there was no Liberal Candidate ]
Adele won because she polled more votes than Tagliaferri, both on primary votes and on 2pp.
There were 11 candidates, who cares if the Libs ran or not.
[Adele won because she polled more votes than Tagliaferri, both on primary votes and on 2pp.]
Read and digest from Antony Green 🙂
[22:56 – If you want to compare this result after preferences with the 2-party contest at the last election, then the swing against labor is over 16%. But this is the wrong comparison. Labor’s vote is unchanged, all that has happened is instead of the Greens running third and boosting Labor’s majority with preferences, this time the Liberals opted out and the Greens picked up lots of those stray Liberal voters and more than a few preferences from Independents. As I said, Labor’s result is the same as at the state election, it’s the change in the Green vote that has made the difference.]
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/wa/2009/fremantle/
And Repeat till the next State election 🙂