Morgan: 61.5-38.5

The latest Morgan survey combines two weekends of face-to-face polling, and it confirms the message elsewhere that Labor has opened up a lead to rival its honeymoon period early last year. Labor’s primary vote is up 2.5 per cent on the last survey to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition is down 3.5 per cent to 33 per cent: its worst result since May 2008, and 1.5 per cent below the previous worst result on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The two-party split of 61.5-38.5 compares with 59.5-40.5 last time. Furthermore:

• Talk of Attorney-General Robert McClelland abandoning parliament for a diplomatic post had escaped my notice, but the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader has reported on the implications for his seat of Barton should it come to pass:

The reports said he would make room for NSW Senator Mark Arbib who wants to be a minister in the Rudd cabinet and had set his sights on Mr McClelland’s seat. If Mr McClelland was “white-anted” he would take a diplomatic post and Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane would be called in as a potential powerbroker to help Senator Arbib take Barton in any preselection fightthat might arise for the next federal election.

The story is denied by all concerned.

• Paul Austin of The Age gets a bit over-excited about the Victorian Electoral Commission’s ruling on independent candidate Les Twentyman’s complaint of misleading electoral material during last year’s Kororoit by-election campaign. Twentyman argued that a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals” constituted material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote” under the meaning of section 84 of the Electoral Act, an offence potentially punishable by six months’ imprisonment. Those familiar with complaints of this kind will not be surprised to learn that it was rejected, on the grounds that the section is narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong candidate. The VEC’s report on the by-election states that “legal opinion is that the pamphlet is misleading in its suggestion of an affiliation or agreement between Mr Twentyman and the Liberal Party”, but since this is neither here nor there as far as the Electoral Act is concerned, I can’t help wondering if it’s the commission’s place to say so.

• The Derwent Valley Gazette reports that the Tasmanian Liberals have named six candidate for Lyons at next year’s state election: incumbent Rene Hidding, “Brighton councillor Leigh Gray, vascular surgeon Philip Lamont, transport operator Geoff Page, business consultant Jim Playsted and Meander Valley Mayor Mark Shelton”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,210 comments on “Morgan: 61.5-38.5”

Comments Page 22 of 25
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  1. [Make Perth the capital city of Australia because it is closest to Europe, Asia and Africa.]
    Wouldn’t Port Hedland be closer?

  2. [Wouldn’t Port Hedland be closer?]

    Actuakky Darwin would be closer as it would be the first port of call from the North.

  3. All very interesting, but I think you will find that most Capital cities a situated away from the coast for a very good reason.

  4. There was no deliberate decision to have the new capital located inland as opposed to on the coast. Eden was seriously considered. The main reason the Canberra site was chosen was the influence of Sir Austin Chapman, the first member for Eden-Monaro and a Queanbeyan auctioneer, whose motives were pretty obvious.

  5. [Actuakky Darwin would be closer as it would be the first port of call from the North.]
    But Bree insists on the closest point between Africa, Europe and Asia. 😀

  7. Paul Nash,

    SNIP: I cannot say what I want to say to you. Because it will be snipped by Bilbo – The Finnigans.

  9. Eden may have been considered, but it didn’t make any of the short lists. I can’t imagine it was dropped for any other reason than: we don’t want our capital shelled by one of the new battleships being built in Europe.

  12. Alan Moran is Director of the Deregulation Unit at the Institute of Public Affairs.

    http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/author.asp?id=688

    Regulators a headache for market forces; Economics – 21/02/2007 – 8 comments
    Chilling case of accessive regulation; Economics – 26/06/2007 – 5 comments
    .
    .
    .

    It should be noted that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

  14. Frank, it;s all good, shows the young Libs have no young ideas they just chant their failed fathers’ unpopular policies.

  15. FACTS:
    1. Therese Rein DID NOT make her millions from the policies of neo liberalism which caused the global recession.
    2. Therese Rein made her millions from liberal policies of privatisation.
    3. The Australian financial system is a liberal system that is WELL regulated.
    4. The financial system of the US is a neo liberal system with NO regulation and is the cause of the GFC.
    5. The PM has criticised the policies of NEO LIBERALISM.
    6. If the PM was a hypocrite, the following 3 points would have to apply;
    a) Therese Rein had to make her millions from policies of neo liberalism.
    b) The PM must have said that policies of neo liberalism are a success when he REFERS to his wife.
    c) The PM says that policies of neo liberalism have failed.
    7. Neo liberalism are the ideology of the Liberal Party.
    8. Liberal policies (note Democrats in the US are termed Liberal) are policies supported by the Labor Party.
    9. Liberal Party (or Republican Party) policies are NEVER EVER to be voted back in again. NEVER!
    10. Which of the above 9 points don’t you GP, Glen and Diogenes (accusing the PM of being a hypocrite) understand. Or do you want me to grab a kid who has just finished preschool up the road to explain it to you?

  16. I read somewhere (I think it was in Robert Hughes book on Goya) that countries with their capitals away from borders or the sea were more inward-looking and less open (he was talking about Madrid and Paris being isolated and hence from introspective countries).

  17. [1. Therese Rein DID NOT make her millions from the policies of neo liberalism which caused the global recession.
    2. Therese Rein made her millions from liberal policies of privatisation.]

    How can you draw a line between what are “liberal” policies, and what are “neoliberal” policies? It just looks like you are using the “Labor is good, Liberal is bad” argument. You can define something any way you want and get the answer you want.

    Neoliberalism = Repugs = Liberal party = evil. 👿
    Liberal economics = Democrat = Labor = good. 😀

  18. What a sad state the Liberal Party has become?

    Now they are trying to accuse the PM of intentionally swearing on TV last night. Pretend you are watching the AFL, and in your bestest sadest Bruce McAvaney voice – CAN YOU BELIEVE IT!
    LOL
    😀

  19. Neo liberalism = no regulation and let the market rip.

    Liberalism = Capitalism with appropriate regulation to ensure the system works fairly and cohesively.

  20. I suspect the majority of the capitals of the great powers were/are not on coasts and not on borders, certainly in more modern times:

    Paris, Madrid, Berlin, Vienna, Moscow, Beijing, New Delhi
    vs
    Rome, Constantinople, London, Amsterdam, Washington, Tokyo

    I don’t think that theory holds much water. Spain was a great maritime and colonial power despite its capital being inland. Few countries have been more engaged with the rest of the world than France.

  22. http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/screwed–in-anyones-language-20090308-8s7c.html?page=-1

    I used to think Howard dribbles and have a lot of ummm

    but Rudd has to be the least articulate PM of all time

    This is classical

    Kerry O’Brien asked him the meaning of the national accounts figures.

    “Well, the first point, Kerry, is that you know growth numbers have been calculated since time immemorial, including both the non-farm and the farm sectors of the economy,” the PM began.

    “And going back some time we’ve had some periods of negative contribution to growth from the non-farm sector as well. So these things change over time. If you go to the actual elements of the national accounts themselves, there are strengths still, but there are weaknesses.

    “And you asked specifically about weaknesses – the one which stands up out of those national accounts, of course, is the fact that there has been a recourse to inventories by firms, rather than bringing in new production into their warehouses for the purposes of on-selling to consumers.”

  25. It’s obviously a challenge for some people that we have a PM who doesn’t assume that everyone else is a moron and talks as though people might understand a bit of, you know, COMPLEXITY.

  28. The Liberals are looking and sounding very much without substance. Consider their latest (ie current) batch of memes:

    His talking bores us.

    We find it hard to understand what he is talking about.

    He swore on purpose.

    His wife is a businesswoman.

    … Anything to divert attention from their leadership instability, factional rifts and attachment to rejected toxic policy.

  31. But the good thing about it GB is that your link goes to page 3 which starts with:
    [As the former Labor leader Mark Latham wrote on February 20, in The Australian Financial Review…]

    thereby ensuring I was able to decide there was no need to read any more. 🙂

  33. [Liberalism = Capitalism with appropriate regulation to ensure the system works fairly and cohesively.]
    [3. The Australian financial system is a liberal system that is WELL regulated.]

    So was Howard a neo-liberalist or a liberalist? He was our economic manager for the last 12 years which makes it hard to say we are well regulated but that was only due to PMs before Howard.

  35. Diogs,
    workchoices = neo
    privatising Telstra (a monopoly) = neo
    privatisation in general = liberal
    no taxes = neo
    fair taxes = liberal
    government spending = liberal
    no government spending = neo
    user pays for services = neo
    etc… etc…

  37. [So was Howard a neo-liberalist or a liberalist?]

    From the, er, horse’s mouth:

    The Australian, 6 March 2008:

    [We pursued a blend of economic liberalism – in the classical sense of that term connoting as it does a faith in market forces – and social conservatism.

    …

    Competitive capitalism within free markets remains the most effective economic paradigm

    …

    The right responses will be grounded in free market orthodoxies.

    We should avoid resort to re-regulation. We should preserve the independence of central banks. We should maintain open and free labour markets.]

    From address to the American Enterprise Institute
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23328945-5014047,00.html

  39. My two rapidly-devaluing-cents worth:

    1) Technically, the MT piece doesn’t “attack” TR (But all that “I come to praise her, not bury her” stuff is amateurish and slightly creepy).
    However, out there (or at least out here), it’s being read as such an attack (I volunteer, with a big group, including our local perennial Liberal candidate’s mother, who told me that she thought what she described as “Turnball’s attack” was “disgusting”. I tend towards the dog-whistle idea, but it will/has backfired, at least with the rather conservative group I spent the arvo with. They all were talking about it, and all read it as an attack. So the dog heard the whistle, and the dog don’t like it.

    2) The Liberal Lust For Peter C . . . amazes me. The rusted-on conservatives (apart from his parliamentary colleagues), still gaga over his supposedly-brilliant treasury stint, adore him. Cool. Maybe he’ll eventually have the guts to challenge.
    It would be such a joy to run the campaign against him . . . you know, 12 years of press conferences and parliamentary shenanigans and smart-a***ery to comb through for the ads. Workchoices not going far enough. H R Nicholls Soc? Hell, even $ Sweets. There’s so much more, so easy to find, and so easy to paint him as a vile extremist.

    What’s fun is that I’ve no doubt that that’s the campaign for 2010. Rudd returned, in the midst of a global recession, with an increased majority anyone?

  40. Oh, the neos would get rid of Medicare in a flash, but they know they would lose the election. So how do they deceive? We are the best friend Medicare ever had!

    I wish Obama would introduce our medicare over there. In about 16 – 20 years the Republicans will be saying – we are the best friend medicare ever had. LOL

  42. Centre

    If people cannot distinguish between the two definitions the you put forward then they are either unwilling or incapable of thinking rationally.

  43. Yes BK. Then we have the extreme opposite of neo such as:

    government ownership of business = loony left
    the environment at all costs before the economy = loony left
    government ownership of all wealth = YAKES!

    I wonder how many Bludgers support the above three?

  48. Our banking system is good. That’s why our banks are among the highest ranked in the world. The stock market, especially in the US, has got MILES to go for transparency and integrity. I wish I could give you some examples but we could all get into the sh!t!

  49. Diogenes,

    I actually cleaned up on Zavite. I tried to call but I didn’t know your number. As always, my tips are worth what you pay for them.

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