Morgan: 61.5-38.5

The latest Morgan survey combines two weekends of face-to-face polling, and it confirms the message elsewhere that Labor has opened up a lead to rival its honeymoon period early last year. Labor’s primary vote is up 2.5 per cent on the last survey to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition is down 3.5 per cent to 33 per cent: its worst result since May 2008, and 1.5 per cent below the previous worst result on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The two-party split of 61.5-38.5 compares with 59.5-40.5 last time. Furthermore:

• Talk of Attorney-General Robert McClelland abandoning parliament for a diplomatic post had escaped my notice, but the St George and Sutherland Shire Leader has reported on the implications for his seat of Barton should it come to pass:

The reports said he would make room for NSW Senator Mark Arbib who wants to be a minister in the Rudd cabinet and had set his sights on Mr McClelland’s seat. If Mr McClelland was “white-anted” he would take a diplomatic post and Rockdale councillor Shaoquett Moselmane would be called in as a potential powerbroker to help Senator Arbib take Barton in any preselection fightthat might arise for the next federal election.

The story is denied by all concerned.

Paul Austin of The Age gets a bit over-excited about the Victorian Electoral Commission’s ruling on independent candidate Les Twentyman’s complaint of misleading electoral material during last year’s Kororoit by-election campaign. Twentyman argued that a Labor pamphlet stating that “a vote for Les Twentyman is a vote for the Liberals” constituted material “likely to mislead or deceive an elector in relation to the casting of the vote” under the meaning of section 84 of the Electoral Act, an offence potentially punishable by six months’ imprisonment. Those familiar with complaints of this kind will not be surprised to learn that it was rejected, on the grounds that the section is narrowly concerned with matters such as how-to-vote cards that deceive voters into backing the wrong candidate. The VEC’s report on the by-election states that “legal opinion is that the pamphlet is misleading in its suggestion of an affiliation or agreement between Mr Twentyman and the Liberal Party”, but since this is neither here nor there as far as the Electoral Act is concerned, I can’t help wondering if it’s the commission’s place to say so.

• The Derwent Valley Gazette reports that the Tasmanian Liberals have named six candidate for Lyons at next year’s state election: incumbent Rene Hidding, “Brighton councillor Leigh Gray, vascular surgeon Philip Lamont, transport operator Geoff Page, business consultant Jim Playsted and Meander Valley Mayor Mark Shelton”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,210 comments on “Morgan: 61.5-38.5”

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  1. None of the so-called neoliberal, neocon or whatever President’s have actually been neoliberals. Bush and Reagan both ran up huge government debts, and Bush in particular ran the biggest spending Government in history. I doubt that there has ever been a country leader who has been genuinely a neoliberal/neocon economically and actually gone through with it.

  2. Adam and anyone else who thinks that Turnbull hasn’t lost the plot should just read this.

    ] Federal Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has said he will not discuss political personalities, despite personally attacking the Prime Minister less than an hour earlier.

    Asked whether he would like former treasurer Peter Costello to leave politics and pursue a business career, Mr Turnbull on Monday said: “I have resolved not to discuss political personalities”.

    “I’m not running a political commentary. I’m ignoring political games, I’m ignoring political gossip about personalities and I’m deliberately focusing on the task at hand which is economics,” he told Fairfax radio today.

    Earlier today, he told the Seven Network that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was a hypocrite and the richest prime minister ever.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-attacks-rich-pm-then-vows-to-rein-in-personal-attacks-20090309-8sql.html

  3. [What the hell are you blokes doing having a holiday for the Adelaide Cup? What is it a Group 3 these days?]

    I couldn’t agree more. It’s ridiculous. About 25,000 people go which is less than a Crows or Power match. I’m moderately interested in racing and I can’t name a single Adelaide Cup winner. We should move the holiday to Melbourne Cup day, which has about 100 times as many people interested. No-one works on Melbourne Cup day anyway.

    Somehow the SAJC has always been in with the State Government, Labor and Liberal. I’m not sure how they justify wasting a holiday on a really dumb race with future Pal cans running around.

  4. Adam,

    A life of prudence and sober management of your resources and you end up living in Canberra. There is a god and he’s laughing!

  5. *Sigh* What is the difference between a “personal attack” and a “political attack”? If Turnbull says that Rudd is a hypocrite for criticising capitalism when he is rich, that may or may not be true, but why is it more “personal” than calling Turnbull an arrogant merchant banker?

  6. I couldn’t agree more Diogs. It should be Melbourne Cup day for a holiday. Also you guys should move your carnival to the summer where it wouldn’t clash with Syd and Mlb. But that would involve too much commonsense for racing administrators. Jeez their stupid. Honest to god!

    Diogs check out how much Betfair has grown. The TABs are gone!

  7. [A life of prudence and sober management of your resources and you end up living in Canberra. There is a god and he’s laughing!]

    I chose to live here, and I have no need to be here financially speaking.

  8. [Does anyone in WA know who Sam Calabrese is, I guess he has something to do with the Liberal Party.]

    He’s my second cousin on my dad’s side – my first cousin’s son 🙁

    And it get’s worse, I have a Brother in Law in Bunbury who’s a lib as well.

  9. [He’s my second cousin on my dad’s side – my first cousin’s son

    And it get’s worse, I have a Brother in Law in Bunbury who’s a lib as well.]

    It’s all good Frank!

  10. My family have lived in Australia since the 1820s (some branches anyway), and I can safely say that I was the first Labor voter in the familym, and I am still the only one, although some of the junior members are Greens. Nothing sharpens your political skills like family dinner table arguments.

  11. I should note I hardly see Sam or his family that often, last time I saw Sam was at Dad’s 80’s some 3 years ago, though I have caught up with his parents at the last couple of family do’s.

  12. [I hope you don’t settle your family differences Calabrian style, Frank.]

    Nope, we’re the non-violent types. 🙂

  13. Frank: Sam is at least using open source software for his web site. Maybe you should ask him what copy-left means next time you he him…

  14. [He’s my second cousin on my dad’s side – my first cousin’s son ]

    Frank, your 1st cuz’s son is actaully your 1st cousin once removed. I thought the word ‘removed’ in the kin reckoning might make you feel a little better about his genelogical proximity to you 🙂

  15. [Frank, your 1st cuz’s son is actaully your 1st cousin once removed. I thought the word ‘removed’ in the kin reckoning might make you feel a little better about his genelogical proximity to you]

    Well on the other side of the ledger my female second cousin who I’ve mentioned was involved in a preselection battle for the State seat of West Swan 🙂 And yet anotherf brother in law once unsuccessfully stood for the federal seat of Forrest, while his younger brother stood for Tangney at the same election, while a 3rd Brother was a former State President of the WA State School Teachers Union.

  16. When did this blog turn into a general discussion on the Calabrese family?

    In other news, Wong thinks climate change is a “medium-long term” issue, Andrew Robb reaffirms his position as an idiot and Christine Milne voice is far less harsh on Four Corners than it was on the 7:30 Report.

  17. The Calabrese family (and affines) of WA certainly love the democratic process don’t they! Did you hold elections in your house to see who got to do the dishes? 🙂

  18. [In other news, Wong thinks climate change is a “medium-long term” issue,]
    She means that we have to change over a medium to long term, if we try to change everything within just a few years it will be extremely expensive, and cost jobs.

  19. The Greens and Coalition have agreed on the terms of reference for a senate inquiry into the ETS.

    [“The terms of reference will be broad enough to allow a proper investigation into the scientific adequacy of the scheme and its targets,” Senator Milne said.

    The inquiry would also look at the design of the emissions trading scheme, and if it would effectively transform Australia into a green economy.

    It would be due to report at the end of budget week in May.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25162692-12377,00.html

  20. [When did this blog turn into a general discussion on the Calabrese family?]

    When Runawake asked about Sam’s links to a certain qld Liberal Party dirt website 🙂

  21. Dio 1102

    Absolutely true for all the US republicans – they were big spending hypocrits (like Howard) its just that the spending was on pork for pork farmers and defence industries and wasn’t on social services. However there was one neo-liberal who actually did it (made cuts) – Thatcher in UK.

  22. Ah ok, so it officially has.

    [if we try to change everything within just a few years it will be extremely expensive, and cost jobs.]

    GOD FORBID! The 30,000 jobs dependent on the GBR, who cares.

  23. Speakign of emission trading, there is a very good show on Four Corners right now (Adelaide time). It details the successful actions of carbon industry lobbies to get the Rudd governmetn to water down the ETS to its present ineffectual state. Ross Garnaut is on and pulling no punches. Good ot get some honesty into the debate again. I still prefer Labor to Libeal on this issue and many others, but this issue would induce me to change to preference Greens at the next election if Rudd doesn’t get more genuine.

  24. Your argument that it will be “expensive” is also rebutted by both the Stern and Garnaut reports (both respected economists) who conclude that acting sooner will be cheaper than acting later.

    The inquiry will completely rip the government’s ETS since it was based not on science or even economics but purely on politics.

  25. [Speakign of emission trading]

    Yes, Four Corners was the impetus for my kicking off of the discussion this evening.

    [but this issue would induce me to change to preference Greens at the next election]

    Forgive me for asking, and you certainly don’t have to respond, but do you currently preference the Liberals above The Greens?

  26. The arguments on the expense of fighting global warmgin really don’t hold water from an economic/whole of community point of view, only for individual vested interests. So for Australia as a whole it is cheaper for us to act. For the particular industries that are the guilty parties (high polluters) they stand to lose.

  27. Oz

    “but do you currently preference the Liberals above The Greens?” – Heavens no, over Howard’s dead body! My past fondness for certain democrats is now moot. Its just that if previously gave Labor first preference and Greens before Liberals, it was academic if the Labor candidate gets up. But in future I might preference Greens before Labor on this issue, and I don’t think I will be alone in that.

  28. Wong is sounding quite weak (IMO) on the Four Corners episode in defending the 5% target. She is referring to restructuring of industry “in the long term” that betrays a lack of intention ot act.

  29. ShowsOn 1133

    Wong’s comments really mean that they see nothing changing before 2020 – thats 11 years! I can’t accept that is short term; under Hawke and Keating we restructured the whole Australian economy in the 80s in a comparable timeframe. This is simply putting off change to beyond Rudd’s time in office.

  30. Diogs @ 1124.

    I have heard nothing about it. We were all led to believe over here that it was unaminously in favour of selling Cheltenham?

  31. When did this blog turn into a general discussion on the Calabrese family?

    to some of us people in this blog have become familiar friends, i for one am interested in Frank’s family, from his uncle who had to protect himself to the rest of the family, i’ve become close to some of the Italian community in my area and they closed around me in my time of need, to those who hav’nt been accepted into an Italian family i feel sorry for you, they are an intensly giving people.

  32. The Greens will cave and pass the governments ETS. Either that or there won’t be one with the blessings of the Greens and Liberals. How ironic would that be?

  33. [The Greens will cave and pass the governments ETS.]

    They’re very unlikely to cave. Unless they get at least some changes, they’ll vote it down.

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