Perfect the next

There’s so much going on in Queensland at the moment that a progressively updated post on developments seems in order, starting with the relevant entries from last night’s general post.

Monday, February 23

• Missed a spot from Steven Wardill’s Courier-Mail report on Chris Bombolas’s departure from Chatsworth: “Frontrunners to replace Mr Bombolas include his electorate officer Margaret Young and Police Minister Judy Spence’s policy adviser Simon Tutt.”

• Chris Pianta, who as of 2005 was Bundaberg secretary of the Australian Federated Union of Locomotive Employees, has been nominated as Labor’s candidate to run against Rob Messenger in Burnett.

• Déjà vu all over again: Pauline Hanson in shock comeback bid, and Greens threats to withhold preferences from Labor.

• Liberal National Party television ads viewable here.

• Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin on Mandy Johnstone’s preselection win in Townsville:

Even in Labor circles, there are questions. Not the least of which is why Mike Reynolds suddenly changed his mind after only days before going to the expense of preparing his advertising material, including video shoots with the other Townsville Labor candidates. Mr Reynolds told the Townsville Bulletin he made the decision during the past week due to health problems and rejected any suggestion he had been pushed …

Another question surrounding the preselection is why Labor’s factional bosses in Brisbane preselected a Left candidate from the Nelson-Carr group which is so openly hostile with Reynolds’ own Left group … There is a split between the Socialist Left factions of Mike Reynolds and Lindy Nelson-Carr (there is also a separate Labor Left faction). The Nelson-Carr faction would appear to have won the day by gaining the Townsville seat with its candidate Mandy Johnstone, apparently a cousin of Ms Nelson-Carr, while the Reynolds’ hopeful, Cathy O’Toole, his sister-in-law, will have to wait her turn.

Sunday, February 22

• The latest from the Courier-Mail:

ON YOUR marks, get set . . . The 2009 election race is almost under way. All that’s required to start the contest proper is for Anna Bligh, above, to take a quick drive up Paddington’s Fernberg Rd to visit Government House. That road trip will almost certainly happen some time in the next 10 days, with some predicting she’ll visit the Governor on Monday for a March 21 poll. Or will she wait a week and pull the trigger on a March 28 election?

They’ll have to be right eventually.

• Madonna King in the Courier-Mail sees things from Anna Bligh’s perspective:

Of course we’re going to lose seats. We’ve been in power for 11 years for goodness sake. But the boys (advisers chief-of-staff Mike Kaiser, Treasurer Andrew Fraser and state secretary Anthony Chisholm) all reckon we can win Gladstone, Mirani and Burdekin … The redistribution should deliver Mirani and Burdekin, and Gladstone should never have gone to an Independent in the first place. And don’t forget Bundaberg. The LNP might have sneaked across the line there, but this was Labor’s heartland for a century … Chris Bombolas just handed Chatsworth to the LNP … And there are other seats looking bad, too. Hervey Bay, where that former mayor Ted Sorensen is in with a good chance; Pumicestone; Aspley; not to mention Indooroopilly … Cleveland, Mansfield, Redlands – they’ll all be hard to hold and that’s not even considering those Gold Coast seats.

• Queensland’s very own Pitt the Younger, Curtis Pitt, is inevitably having to field questions about nepotism after succeeding his father as Labor candidate for Mulgrave. Curtis’s story seems to be that he worked locally as a cinema manager before moving to Brisbane in 2003 to take up a public service position, where he still remains.

• Elsewhere: Larvatus Prodeo, Woolly Days and Leon Bertrand.

Thursday, February 19

Fairfax confirms that Mandy Johnstone and Cameron Dick have won Labor preselection for Townsville and Greenslopes. ABC Radio reports the Mulgrave preselection has gone to Curtis Pitt, the son of outgoing member Warren. What’s more, a new front has opened with the surprise retirement of Chris Bombolas in Chatsworth, saying doctors have advised him to reduce stress due to diabetes. The ABC reports a successor will be chosen on Monday. A former Channel Nine sports reader, Bombolas won the seat in 2006 from Liberal powerbroker Michael Caltabiano in 2006, who in turn won it from Labor at a by-election a year before. Caltabiano’s personal vote as state member and earlier as a Brisbane City councillor would have meant the 0.8 per cent margin (reduced to 0.1 per cent after the redistribution) exaggerated Labor’s vulnerability, so long as Bombolas remained candidate – and assuming Caltabiano’s personal vote doesn’t transfer to his wife Andrea, who is the new Liberal National Party candidate. Now he’s gone, the seat can be ranked among those that will fall to the LNP barring a total disaster. Anna Bligh has intimated there might be more departures to come. Elsewhere: Cate Molloy to run again as an independent in Noosa (UPDATE: Make that “likely to run”).

Wednesday, February 18

• Queensland election speculation has stepped up yet another notch in recent days with three Labor members announcing their retirements (see below). The most excitable stories had it that the election would be called two days ago for March 28. The minimum election period is 26 days, so I gather an election for that date could be called as late as March 2. Darryl Rosin lays out the obstacles for various election dates beyond that in comments at Larvatus Prodeo, which are considerable if the government is of a mind to get in before the budget. The Courier-Mail reports outgoing Labor MP Mike Reynolds has told a radio interviewer the election “could be in late March”, while Tourism Minister Desley Boyle says she “suspects the election is not far away”. While you wait, enjoy Antony Green’s guide to the election, which went live this evening. My own effort remains a work in progress.

• Labor’s retiring Queensland MPs have made three seats available for new passengers on the Anna Bligh express ride to death or glory. Open for preselection are Townsville, where Mike Reynolds is calling it a day after 11 years; the outer Cairns seat of Mulgrave, home to Warren Pitt on-and-off-and-on since 1989; and the inner southern Brisbane seat of Greenslopes, vacated by another class of 1989 graduate in Gary Fenlon. Acting with remarkable haste, Labor set up preselection processes to replace Reynolds and Fenlon within three days of their retirement announcement on Sunday, with Pitt’s successor to be chosen two days after his announcement on Tuesday. In each case the decision will be made by the party’s administrative committee. Yesterday’s Townsville Bulletin reported that “insiders are tipping failed Townsville City Council contender Mandy Johnstone will get the party nod ahead of former mayor Tony Mooney” (who was defeated at the 1996 Mundingburra by-election which spelled the end for the Goss government). The ABC reports that Cameron Dick, brother of Brisbane City councillor Milton Dick, is likely to get the nod in Greenslopes. I gather we will find out in each case very shortly. The Cairns Post rang around trying to find someone who would admit to being interested in the Mulgrave preselection, apparently without success.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

188 comments on “Perfect the next”

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  4. steconone,

    Thanks for the link and gives a fairly chilling overview of the US economy.

    However, we in Australia have compulsory super and Medibank. The lack of both seems to be the drivers of the US problems. Consequently, our economic outlook is somewhat better. Coupled to that is our integration with the growth economies of Asia.

    The Reserve Bank yesterday said there were clear signs that China had bottomed and that growth will start again in the second half of 09. If this is the case, then Rudd and co will be perceived as economic geniuses for avoiding recession here in Australia.

    The economic stimulus will be seen as an important part of the strategy. And, economic growth will quickly enable us to pay back the monies borrowedd.

  6. Steve, what is said by the RBA is a good sign and also what I would have expected. The possible worry is that Australia and other western countries go down the same track as the US and start to spend much more than they bring in. The net imports into the US as of 07 was equal to 6% of their GDP. Australia even at the moment is well placed and not heading too deeply down the debt road. The extra money the government is spending is being compensated by individual savings. My main worry is the current rhetoric being used and the lack of economic understanding being displayed.

  7. GG

    I know icomplex deas aren’t easy to get across in short blogs, but surely you can’t be arguing our economy is better because we have Medicare?!!?

  8. [WorkChoices wasn’t about cutting peoples pay, you idiot.]

    What a great slogan for the LNP at this election, they should run with it, they really really should.

  9. Squggle,

    The video highlghted a lack of a health care system and the expected cost of future health care for baby boomers as a major driver of the systemic problems in the US economy. I simply pointed out that we here in Australia have a universal health care system in place.

  10. Mr Squiggle – if Greeny was arguing that, he’d be right.

    The opportunity costs of Medicare are enormous – about 3% of GDP from memory if instead of Medicare, we followed the US path and achieved US outcomes. The US spends more of the proportion of their economy on healthcare to receive at best the same outcomes (at worse slightly poorer average health outcomes) than we do.

  11. Possum, this is true. A major problem in the US is preventative medicine requires health cover. Rather than fix uninsured peoples health problems early the system makes them wait until medical intervention is necessary. This is much more costly. Also the PBS gives Australians’ a monopsony (buyer’s monoploy) which reduces the costs of pharmasuticals.

  13. Poss and GG,

    Thanks for clarifying. I can see economic benefits in having a well run health care system. After all, goods and services are being traded

    Where I would struggle is with the notion that we developed a healthy ecomony in Australia because we have medicare.

    At best, a well run economy allows for a sytem that gives access to health care for those who can’t afford it…..Not vice versa

    Can I hear a chicken clucking ??…an egg!!!, an egg!!

  15. That would mainly be the result of twelve years of Liberal National waste of money on tax cuts to the wealthy by Howard and Costello, steconone.

  16. Oh, and the selling off of assets which no doubt is what the Queensland Nationals will want to do to pay for their $70 Billion in unfunded election promises.

  17. Steve, it was not so much the tax cuts, most tax cuts go to productivity which is good. It was more the drastic increase in unproductive spending in their final years to win votes and the federal reserve moving too slowly with interest rates early on.

    Where can I find the figures for the LNP election promises? I have heard $70 billion a couple of times and would be interested in what they are promising and how much it will cost and also what they intend on cutting and by how much.

  19. Cuppa, just to clarify – you think all macroeconomic policy is completely irrelevant in the context of an economic downturn?

    Do you also think it should be made very difficult for me, as a business owner, to sack people? What about paying higher wages than I can afford?

    I’m just trying to gauge whether your an economic illiterate, a fool or both.

  21. Steve #70, it is common practise and standard monetary policy to base interest rates on inflation. The problem with this, which has only really been identified as a result of the current global slowdown, is that other important factors get ignored. This includes things like bubbles, capital inflation, debt levels, balance of trade etc.

    Steve #68, do you have any documents which are independant. I have only looked at the first 3 costings and all have issues. The UFU starts from 07, the ambo crisis has the governments solution costed and the amalgamation compensation is costed a full compensation rather than partial.

  23. It does not matter when Anna Bligh calls the election – she will win, comfortably.

    Mr Springborg is unelectable – he know it as well. The only reason he came out of hibernation was to press his long held belief that the National Party should merge with the Liberal Party. He has achieved this.

    Now he is reaping the rewards of his ill thought out merger.

    Having the National Party and Liberal Party in Coalition meant each party could “play” to its own base, now they cannot. If they appease regional and rural areas they lose the much needed “city votes” and vice-versa. Dumb stuff.

    The LNP are headed for disaster and the result will have Federal ramifications for the National Party.

  26. [Do you also think it should be made very difficult for me, as a business owner, to sack people?]

    It has always been easy for business people like you to sack people – its just that a few were too dumb to follow the rules.

  27. Ruawake, I would disagree to the extent that most governments lose election rather than oppositions winning elections. I believe if the government wins/loses this election it will be as a direct result of what they do, not the LNP.

  28. Glen

    Have you seen the road infrastructure that has been built on the Sunshine Coast in the past 3 years?

    There must have been $500 million or more spent, it is not quite finished yet. That is one reason I think the March election speculation is crud.

    The sad thing is the LNP have been an abysmal opposition – it is they who do not deserve to be elected.

    I think Mr Springborg will adopt a low key approach to the election and let Tim Nicholls and Mark McArdle do most of the running. Then blame them when he loses.

  30. Once the Nationals Springborg, McArdle team are unleashed on the unsuspecting Queensland public, I’d expect the public to demand that Flegg be given another chance. The original is always better than imitations.

  31. Steve

    You are forgetting the “The Borg” only works Monday-Friday or less. He could not comment on the Children’s Emergency Centre stuff yesterday becuase he “was in his electorate” wtf surely he has a telephone?

  32. I was not saying the government has/hasn’t done anything to make people kick them out. All I was saying was, it will not be the LNP who decide the result but rather the government.

  35. Ruawake, if The Borg hides in the electorate for whole campaign, it will be boring because McArdle and Nicholls have all the charisma of melting ice. At least with Flegg, there was laughter, good natured banter and entertainment for the whole campaign.

  36. Not really Poss, McArdle is toast he will not hold Caloundra. It will revert to Labor, he only won because Cummins was a dill.

    The redistribution has crueled his chances.

    Tim Nicholls snuck in ahead of Liddy Clark, but remember the “crises” at the last election.

    Yep toast-ville for both of them. 🙂

  40. [That’s strange, I thought that Glen (# 75) had spent the last six months or more, arguing for one conservative party.]

    All he ended up with was one big National Party.

  41. I’m willing to put my stones on the line regarding the Sunshine Coast.

    Caloundra – Jody Tunnicliffe ALP
    Kawana – Jenny Goodwin ALP
    Buderim – Steve Dickson LNP
    Marochydore – Fiona Simpson LNP
    Noosa – Brian Stockwell ALP

    That makes 3 extra seats the LNP have to find from somewhere else.

  45. [That’s strange, I thought that Glen (# 75) had spent the last six months or more, arguing for one conservative party.]
    Glen’s dream is for the Nationals to fold up their tent and pass on all their assets and voters to the Libs, not for the Nats to buy out the Libs a la LNP Qld style.

  47. As much as I would like any LNP candidate to lose a seat, I can’t see it happening. The Government has been in power for too long anyway, and will be bucketed by ‘journalists’ in the Courier Mail and by talk back radio hosts, (including on 6-12) and special interest groups from now to election day, which is of course, is almost certain to be announced yesterday if not before.

    The LNP will also have more funds than they had previously available, to push their message, whatever that is.

    Their big bonus however is that they will not have the election campaign problems that they had last time- if you look back over William’s threads from the last election you will see that they had an almost constant stream of stuff ups.

    Combine this with a fairly large number of ALP members retiring and the redistribution reducing the value of sitting MPs, and the ALP should lose about a dozen or so seats. You can start the count with Indooroopilly.

  48. Fargo61

    Last election – well about 6 months before Peter Beatie said OK guys tell us now if you are not going to stand – about a dozen did the same thing and “retired”. Nothing new thats how the Qld ALP does stuff.

    Indooroopilly will be retained by Labor – so can you tell me the other 11 seats they will lose?

    The LNP will have even bigger “stuff ups” this election because local members will be saying stuff that is not LNP policy.

  49. Here is a ‘good’ a reason as any to vote out the ALP. They could still fulfil this dire warning, taken from an article published in The Argus (Melbourne, Vic.) Friday 11 November 1921(located by National Archives Beta search)-

    “If the Legislative Council can be abolished by a vote of Parliament, leaving all the legislative power in the hands of the remaining Chamber, what is there to prevent that Chamber from abolishing itself? There would then be no Parliament, and consequently no Constitution, or certainly not a Constitution under which Queensland has been governed since separation from New South Wales.”

    Other ‘reasons’ advanced at the time for retaining the Legislative Council were that the Government of Mr Theodore would take peoples homes, close their bank accounts, and, my favourite- abolish wages.

  50. How will any of them know just what the National Party policy is on anything? Will they have to memorise all the press released that have been copied from the LNP website on to Springborg.com under the heading of Policy?

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