So much going on at the moment that it can’t wait for the next opinion poll post:
• Brendan Nelson’s announcement he will vacate his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Bradfield at the next election could initiate another of the classic preselection clashes for the NSW branch of the Liberal Party has become justly famous in recent years. Party sources quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian say the preselection will be “the most open and hotly contested since Bronwyn Bishop succeeded Jim Carlton in the neighbouring seat of Mackellar in 1994”, with no clear front-runner and neither Right or Left controlling the seat. However, it is also “understood party bigwigs are intent on avoiding a repeat of the preselection debacle in 2007 in the southern Sydney seat of Cook”. Salusinszky’s report floated the possibility of his paper’s conservative pundit Janet Albrechtsen taking the field, but she promptly ruled herself out. Live possibilities apparently include another connection with The Australian in Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor and staffer to Nelson; Arthur Sinodinos, John Howard’s legendary chief-of-staff; Nick Farr-Jones, former rugby union international; Julian Leeser, executive director of the Menzies Research Centre; Geoff Selig, former state party president; Alister Henskens, barrister and local party office-holder; David Elliott, former Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive; Paul Blanch, a sheep farmer who ran in Calare in 2004; and, as always, Adrienne Ryan, former Ku-ring-gail mayor and ex-wife of former police commissioner Peter Ryan. The Sydney Morning Herald reports we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for a result:
A state executive meeting tomorrow is likely to discuss the timetable for the preselection race but because of a redistribution of seats in NSW, the final ballot will not be held until the end of the year. Because of that, most Liberal insiders believe the final candidate has yet to emerge.
• The Electoral Commissioner’s federal electoral determination has been published, confirming redistributions will need to occur to remove a seat from New South Wales and add one to Queensland. There seems to be some confusion abroard as to whether this scotches any chance of an election this year. As Antony Green explains, it is indeed the case that Queensland cannot be deprived of the seat which it is constitutionally entitled to at the next election now that the determination has been made, and it is indeed true that a redistribution process takes the better part of a year. However, the Electoral Act lays out a set of procedures for “mini-redistributions” in these circumstances, in which the two most or least heavily enrolled adjoining electorates in the state are either divided into three or merged into two. This has never happened before, and there would be obvious political difficulties in justifying an election held under such slapdash arrangements if it could possibly be avoided.
• Could Western Australia’s May 16 daylight saving referendum be the catalyst for a super Saturday of state by-elections? It certainly seems war clouds are gathering over the electorates of the two most powerful figures in the defeated Carpenter government: Jim McGinty, the member for Fremantle, and Alan Carpenter himself, who holds the neighbouring seat of Willagee (surely I have not so pleased the Lord that He would grant me neighbouring same-day by-elections in my own backyard?). According to Jenny D’Anger of the Fremantle Herald:
In the face of persistent rumours that veteran state Labor MP Jim McGinty is about to trigger a by-election for Fremantle by announcing his retirement, the Greens have called a war cabinet to talk tactics and anoint a candidate. It is all but certain they will choose South Fremantle’s Adele Carles, who came within a whisker of taking the seat at last year’s state election … Ms Carles says if the powerbroker is considering calling it quits he should do it so the by-election can coincide with the daylight saving referendum in May, saving thousands of dollars … The tom-toms have been beating for weeks that Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri was the shoe-in as Labor’s choice to replace Mr McGinty. But more recently a senior union figure has emerged as a front-runner, which a Labor insider says had Mr Tagliaferri threatening to run as an independent (Word around the campfire is that this refers to Dave Kelly, one of McGinty’s successors at the LHMWU – PB). The Herald’s Labor source said Alan Carpenter also had to be taken into account: If the former premier decides to quit politics the union figure may prefer Mr Carpenter’s safe Willagee seat, which is not threatened by the Greens. This would leave Fremantle open for Mr Tagliaferri. But both Mr McGinty and Mr Tagliaferri are denying a by-election is imminent. “It’s no more than rumour-mongering,” Mr McGinty barked down the phone, adding he stood by the Herald’s report last November that he had no plans to go early but was unlikely to run again in 2013.
• Killjoy Harry Quick has gone back on his threat to run against Treasurer Michael Aird as Greens candidate in the looming upper house election for Derwent. According to the ABC, Quick says “his family has played second fiddle to his political aspirations for too long”. An earlier report said he was “understood to be ready withdraw his nomination due to family pressure to stay true to the Labor Party”.
Diog, you are from SA? if so, that explains everything. My sympathy to the delightful Mrs. D. She’s a great woman.
Mayo, as I just said, the High Court was talking about *land ownership*, not *political sovereignty.* The High Court has never ruled on the legality of Britain’s assertion of sovereignty over Australia in 1770, which would be the analogous situation.
[he’d still be in jail if Howie and Dolly were in charge]
True, unless there was an election due.
Despite the fevered dreams of the leftists – there is no way there will ever be anything about Aboriginal “land ownership” of Australia put into the Constitution – the Coalition would oppose it and so would almost all of the electorate – if you thought the “backyards” scare campaign after Wik bit hard…
[True, unless there was an election due.]
I think that is being unfair to Howard and Downer. They did nothing for David Hicks because they saw it as a terrorism related matter.
They would’ve done a lot more for a mentally ill guy in jail simply for publishing a book.
[the Coalition would oppose it ]
Howard proposed it in the lead up to the last election remember. If they oppose it, they would be going back on an aspect of Howardism.
Mary, that’s a silly piece of provocation. Who has suggested such a thing? References please.
Why, oh why, did whoever it was bring up Palestine??? Eh?
The interminable, boring, endless, completely unresolveable arguments here between the same utterly unbendable antagonists on the subject are an exact copy in miniature of why the ME will never have a solution.
[are an exact copy in miniature of why the ME will never have a solution.]
I don’t think so. We argue with words, not bombs.
Is this a muddled reference to Howard’s proposal in 1999 for a premable to the Constitution referring to “the original occupancy and custodianship of Australia by Aboriginal peoples and Torres Strait Islanders”?
“premable” = preamble.
Adam:
It went from “ownership” to “custodianship” to “kinship” for precisely the reasons i mentioned – no one could stoumach ownership or custodianship
Mary, you’re just trying to beat up a fight over nothing. Come back when you have something to say worth arguing about.
BB @ 1058
99.9% of these problems would not occur if international laws were applied to nation states with the same determination and vigor that councils apply in policing parking regulations.
Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at the next election?
http://www.micropoll.com/akira/mpview/546226-142238
[Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at the next election?]
Seriously – Who cares?
I rather liked the solution proposed recently by the retired head of Israel’s national security council, whose name I don’t remember:
* Israel annexes about 600km2 of the West Bank, which would put about 80% of the Jewish settlers inside Israel.
* Egypt cedes about 600km2 of land along the Sinai coast west of Gaza to Palestine, making Gaza a viable economic unit, which it isn’t at present.
* Israel cedes about 600km2 of territory in the Negev to Egypt.
* Everyone’s a winner, everyone recognises everyone else, peace and prosperity reign.
#1067 – and the pigs will also fly which is not very kosher.
[Seriously – Who cares?]
Me – because I doubt it will be Turnbull. I think it is more likey it will be Costello, and he will lose by more seats than in 2007.
ShowsOn
Whoever leads the Liberal Party at the next Federal Election will lose by the same margin.
Turnbull, Costello, Humphrey B. Bear. It does not matter.
ruawake @ 1070
Not so sure about that. I figure Humphrey might have a show. Certainly, a far better one than the other two, if only because he can’t utter a word. QT conducted in mime would be hilarious. And possibly more informative! 😉
MayoFeral
There is probably a dirt file on HBB. I remember an old SAS-10 Christmas Tape where Fat Cat and HBB were doing things that could not be shown on daytime TV. 😉
Humphrey is mates with a certain Lib who could see to it that he gets Nelson’s seat, so who knows he could become their leader 🙂
1039
Adam in Canberra
Posted Saturday, February 21, 2009 at 2:48 pm | Permalink
“1. I agree with your first point. As I stated, the Jews did not claim Palestine in compensation for the Holocaust.”
Then why th damn did YOU first bring up Holocaust if we ar deeling with yoday not 1945 , ie 2009 Palestiniens being occupied ilegaly by Israel in defianse of UN resolution 242
You brought it as an irelevent point , for subtel guilt as a pro Israeli false point
HBB could be PM………he lost his pants in the same hotel as Fraser 🙂
ltep
Posted Saturday, February 21, 2009 at 1:32 pm | Permalink
Vera @ 1073
That photo suggests it was taken about the time HBB’s ‘mate’ was the Federal Treasurer. Wonder if he was using HBB’s Arithmetic Book for Toddlers to work out his budgets?
It would explain the sky high inflation, current trade account, interest rate, unemployment and budget deficit figures Howard racked up back them. Might even tell us something about how the country’s total debt soared from $700 billion to $3.2 trillion between 1997-2007.
mayo,
In the end Kerry packer had to decide which would be a TV icon and which would be a PM.
Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.
GG, Kerry must have been pissed that day.
BTW-I miss the Big Fella (though probably not as much as his lad’s financiers!). I remember free to air TV generally being better when he was running 9.
Like every lover of cricket, I cordially hope Kerry Packer is burning in a vat of sulphur in the very deepest corner of hell.
Adam,
Apparently, there’s a spot next to him. The initials are AC.
Albert Camus, I suspected as much.
Adam,
Spin the dice again.
“Who will be the Leader of the Opposition at the next election”
“Seriously – Who cares?
Me. I’ve got a live betting ticket on Cossie.
Remember Ruawake – Time will tell. 😀
Remeber Gary B – I won’t be eating crowe. 😉
😀
Centre
Don’t spend your “live ticket” too soon. 🙂
[Me. I’ve got a live betting ticket on Cossie.]
How do they define it? On Day 1 of the election? Or on election day itself?
Costello may challenge on election day, just to doom Turnbull’s chances. 😀
i wonder if Cossie ever worked it out that if they’d won the last election no matter what promises Howard made publically that Howie would never have stepped aside for him or anyone else, Howard was addicted to power and hyacinth was addicted to her harbour side mansion, there’d always be some reason Howie would have to keep on going, something he had to finish first, Cossie couldnt be all that smart to allow himself to be so thoroughly dudded.
I might have to check Shows. But I’d imagine who leads when polling booths close.
Adam, are you any relation to Andrew from Canberra?
I have no relatives in Australia apart from my immediate family in Melbourne.
Correction, I have no relatives with the same surname as me in Australia. My grandfather came to Australia by himself in 1911. I have plenty of them on my mother’s side.
Adam, are you any relation to Eve?
[Adam, are you any relation to Eve?]
Or Bob?
Or Gomez 🙂
GOP Presidential hopeful Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has turned down US$90m of unemployment money from the bailout money. With the GOP on something like 20% approval, I would think that this would not help his chances of winning a chook raffle let alone a Presidential campaign.
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/02/20/jindal-unemployed/
Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald:
[Alan Carpenter says he will remain in state parliament till the next election. He ruled out the possibility of a by-election for his safe Labor seat of Willagee …
He shrugged off speculation that he and Fremantle MP Jim McGinty were contemplating mid-term retirement to make way for new Labor blood, “you might not believe me, but often I’m the last person to hear about these things”.
It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat.
“I would be betting the mayor (Peter Tagliaferri) would be next Member for Fremantle. and Dave Kelly will be the next member for Willagee,” Mr Francis predicted.]
Obama increases C.I.A. lead missile strikes in Pakistan:
[WASHINGTON — With two missile strikes over the past week, the Obama administration has expanded the covert war run by the Central Intelligence Agency inside Pakistan, attacking a militant network seeking to topple the Pakistani government.
The missile strikes on training camps run by Baitullah Mehsud represent a broadening of the American campaign inside Pakistan, which has been largely carried out by drone aircraft. Under President Bush, the United States frequently attacked militants from Al Qaeda and the Taliban involved in cross-border attacks into Afghanistan, but had stopped short of raids aimed at Mr. Mehsud and his followers, who have played less of a direct role in attacks on American troops.
The strikes are another sign that President Obama is continuing, and in some cases extending, Bush administration policy in using American spy agencies against terrorism suspects in Pakistan, as he had promised to do during his presidential campaign.]
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/washington/21policy.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print
I think this is good, because although this is inside Pakistan, that area is basically run by the Taliban. Pakistan has no control of its own land there, so the U.S. has to do something about it instead.
Sorry, Adam.
Ross Gittins gives Hockey a quick tutorial on economics 101 in today’s SMH.
[Hey, Joe: how to be better than Bishop
Ross Gittins
February 21, 2009
If Joe Hockey, the new shadow treasurer, is to avoid the gaffes made by his predecessor, Julie Bishop, he faces a steep learning curve. So let me help out – here’s your first tutorial, Joe.]
http://business.smh.com.au/business/hey-joe-how-to-be-better-than-bishop-20090220-8dn3.html?page=-1
When you read through the article, strangely enough, it seems to recommend a similar strategy to that of Kevin Rudd and pours cold water on Turnbulls. Gee, I wonder why that would be?
Adam, any relation to the Brumbies?
Jindal is mad. If the Republicans think nominating cranks like him is the way back to power, they’ll be in opposition for a long time.