Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread

So much going on at the moment that it can’t wait for the next opinion poll post:

• Brendan Nelson’s announcement he will vacate his blue-ribbon northern Sydney seat of Bradfield at the next election could initiate another of the classic preselection clashes for the NSW branch of the Liberal Party has become justly famous in recent years. Party sources quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian say the preselection will be “the most open and hotly contested since Bronwyn Bishop succeeded Jim Carlton in the neighbouring seat of Mackellar in 1994”, with no clear front-runner and neither Right or Left controlling the seat. However, it is also “understood party bigwigs are intent on avoiding a repeat of the preselection debacle in 2007 in the southern Sydney seat of Cook”. Salusinszky’s report floated the possibility of his paper’s conservative pundit Janet Albrechtsen taking the field, but she promptly ruled herself out. Live possibilities apparently include another connection with The Australian in Tom Switzer, former opinion page editor and staffer to Nelson; Arthur Sinodinos, John Howard’s legendary chief-of-staff; Nick Farr-Jones, former rugby union international; Julian Leeser, executive director of the Menzies Research Centre; Geoff Selig, former state party president; Alister Henskens, barrister and local party office-holder; David Elliott, former Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive; Paul Blanch, a sheep farmer who ran in Calare in 2004; and, as always, Adrienne Ryan, former Ku-ring-gail mayor and ex-wife of former police commissioner Peter Ryan. The Sydney Morning Herald reports we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for a result:

A state executive meeting tomorrow is likely to discuss the timetable for the preselection race but because of a redistribution of seats in NSW, the final ballot will not be held until the end of the year. Because of that, most Liberal insiders believe the final candidate has yet to emerge.

• The Electoral Commissioner’s federal electoral determination has been published, confirming redistributions will need to occur to remove a seat from New South Wales and add one to Queensland. There seems to be some confusion abroard as to whether this scotches any chance of an election this year. As Antony Green explains, it is indeed the case that Queensland cannot be deprived of the seat which it is constitutionally entitled to at the next election now that the determination has been made, and it is indeed true that a redistribution process takes the better part of a year. However, the Electoral Act lays out a set of procedures for “mini-redistributions” in these circumstances, in which the two most or least heavily enrolled adjoining electorates in the state are either divided into three or merged into two. This has never happened before, and there would be obvious political difficulties in justifying an election held under such slapdash arrangements if it could possibly be avoided.

• Could Western Australia’s May 16 daylight saving referendum be the catalyst for a super Saturday of state by-elections? It certainly seems war clouds are gathering over the electorates of the two most powerful figures in the defeated Carpenter government: Jim McGinty, the member for Fremantle, and Alan Carpenter himself, who holds the neighbouring seat of Willagee (surely I have not so pleased the Lord that He would grant me neighbouring same-day by-elections in my own backyard?). According to Jenny D’Anger of the Fremantle Herald:

In the face of persistent rumours that veteran state Labor MP Jim McGinty is about to trigger a by-election for Fremantle by announcing his retirement, the Greens have called a war cabinet to talk tactics and anoint a candidate. It is all but certain they will choose South Fremantle’s Adele Carles, who came within a whisker of taking the seat at last year’s state election … Ms Carles says if the powerbroker is considering calling it quits he should do it so the by-election can coincide with the daylight saving referendum in May, saving thousands of dollars … The tom-toms have been beating for weeks that Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri was the shoe-in as Labor’s choice to replace Mr McGinty. But more recently a senior union figure has emerged as a front-runner, which a Labor insider says had Mr Tagliaferri threatening to run as an independent (Word around the campfire is that this refers to Dave Kelly, one of McGinty’s successors at the LHMWU – PB). The Herald’s Labor source said Alan Carpenter also had to be taken into account: If the former premier decides to quit politics the union figure may prefer Mr Carpenter’s safe Willagee seat, which is not threatened by the Greens. This would leave Fremantle open for Mr Tagliaferri. But both Mr McGinty and Mr Tagliaferri are denying a by-election is imminent. “It’s no more than rumour-mongering,” Mr McGinty barked down the phone, adding he stood by the Herald’s report last November that he had no plans to go early but was unlikely to run again in 2013.

• Killjoy Harry Quick has gone back on his threat to run against Treasurer Michael Aird as Greens candidate in the looming upper house election for Derwent. According to the ABC, Quick says “his family has played second fiddle to his political aspirations for too long”. An earlier report said he was “understood to be ready withdraw his nomination due to family pressure to stay true to the Labor Party”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,270 comments on “Action-packed mid-week stop-gap thread”

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  3. [Obama increases C.I.A. lead missile strikes in Pakistan:]

    It’s not a suprise, he said he’d do it.

    [Pakistan has no control of its own land there, so the U.S. has to do something about it instead.]

    How many civilians have died vs. terrorists? And what was the evidence used to determine that those being targeted were indeed terrorists?

    Funnily enough, there wasn’t a problem with the Taliban there prior to the war in Afghanistan so it’s particularly ironic hearing you said it’s good the US is doing something about.

    There are extremists there though but if the US think the way of dealing with them is by missiles they’re stupid. Of course they and the Pakistani ISI created them in the first place so the irony never really ends.

  6. Bah she’s run her dash, she’d be destroyed for a second time by the media if she ran again what with all those gaffs recorded and waiting, i honestly thought she got a rough ride but she didnt help things either. Plus she took Pawlenty’s spot away…

    It’ll be between, Huckabee, Romney and Pawlenty and the only normal person among them is Pawlenty…

    On more Australian matters personally i think having the most senior Victorian shadow being for environment is a let down, Robb should have got Finance, he wouldnt have had to front the media much that’d be Joe’s job but he is a smart cookie and Coonan is a light weight IMHO. What happened to Victoria? The Libs have turned into a NSW/WA Party lol!

  7. [It’ll be between, Huckabee, Romney and Pawlenty and the only normal person among them is Pawlenty…]
    Romney is definitely making a run; he sold two of his six houses so that he has more money, and can come across as more in ‘normal’ (by Republican standards).

  9. [Onselen still carrying on his feud with Bishop, boy she really must have upset him over the stalking remark.]
    This article was in The Australian on Monday! Van Onselen is plagiarism from himself!

  10. Their Vic seats are occupied by Costello (lacks ticker), Georgiou (a dud), Robb (competent but dull), Hawker (a has-been), Mirabella (a witch), Bailey (too old), Broadbent (decent but no talent), Stone (junior minister material), Pearce (ditto), Wood (a moron), Andrews (a disaster), Smith (demoted by Turnbull), Billson (ditto) and Hunt (sidelined in environment). In the Senate they have Fifield (maybe junior minister material), Troeth (retiring), McGauran (a fool), Kroger (unknown) and Ryan (ditto)

  11. Milne is a dunce:
    [Costello is not behaving strategically in staying on the back bench. He is genuinely enjoying life in that role. ]

    OF COURSE it is strategic him being there! If not, he would be on the front bench.

  12. [ It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat. ]

    This actually wouldn’t surprise me, based on (a) the incompetent Labor campaign last time, and (b) this here:

    [ That’s how he ended up in WA based out of Garden Island. He is said to have dazzled party bosses when he presented them initially with a comprehensive analysis of voting patterns in the new seat of Warnbro based on Federal booth results which showed that the safe Labor seat nominally held by another navy man, Paul Papalia, was within striking distance for the Liberals. ]

    So he knows his stuff, then. That West article speaks quite highly of him.

    I’ll be working at the Newport tomorrow… I’ll have to grab myself a Herald while I’m down there.

  13. Yes dont get me wrong there isnt much to play with but that is more to do with politics in general that a whole lot of dead wood gets into Parliament and we could do without half of them to be honest…

    Here’s who if i had the power dump…

    Georgiou (thankgod he is gone, finally)
    Hawker (such a safe seat and he’s had a long career)
    Bailey (but she holds a marginal)
    Wood (he’s a fool)
    Andrews (mick and a tool for busting up IR reform)
    Smith (party hack who spent more time on the Howard years than a hack deserves he’s got no talent)
    Billson (dud plain and simple)

    Just think we could if we were smart get at the most 7 new faces, people competent, people who could be leaders and or hold portfolios and yet we have these duds…no wonder we’re in deep doodoo…

    Mind you ill bet the ALP have a lot of dead wood in Victoria too…

  14. [ The Libs have turned into a NSW/WA Party lol! ]

    Considering that’s where they didn’t get thumped in 2007, that doesn’t surprise me much. Julie Bishop ain’t doing the WA branch any favours, though.

    What does Michael Keenan do with himself these days? Anything notable / photogenic, or is he hard at work trying not to lose Stirling next time?

  15. ShowsOn

    NYT
    “With two missile strikes over the past week, the Obama administration has expanded the covert war run by the Central Intelligence Agency inside Pakistan,….

    …The strikes are another sign that President Obama is continuing, and in some cases extending, Bush administration policy in using American spy agencies against terrorism suspects in Pakistan..”

    ShowsOn “I think this is good

    So when Bush launchs missiles/attacks inside a sovereign Nation WITHOUT that Countrys permission and AGAINST that countrys express sovereign will , it is bad

    But it is good if Obama does so , it is th so called ‘new US moral standard’ he was to bring ….yet if Bush had of done precisly th same thing this week …this site bloggers wuld hav called him a neo con militarist Hypocracy of double standards here is breathtakin

    It was wrong of Bush , and it is wrong of Obama…it is ilegal under Intenation law , morally repugnant and it will entrench Talaban more strongly in north …..make Afganistan more unstable ..and undermine muslim Pakistan stability he who does hav Nukes 100 metres in cncrete shelters undergrounf

    And geo politc its part of wider incompetent decades long US poor policy in wider m/e from Lebanon Israel Palestiniens Syrria Iran Iraq Afganishtan & pakistan ..not to mention despot oil rich Sheiks ..will US ever ‘get it ‘before nukes explode somewhere in aboves

  16. Bird Keenan only holds his seat by 1%, im sure the reason he’s not been in the spotlight is that A) IR is not a front page issue anymore and B) he still wants to be an MP after 2010…

  17. [So when Bush launchs missiles/attacks inside a sovereign Nation WITHOUT that Countrys permission and AGAINST that countrys express sovereign will , it is bad]
    Pakistan can’t control its border; they effectively don’t govern that land. It is pointless asking their permission.

  19. Smith and Billson are party hacks, that’s the only reason they have seats…of course that is my opinion and im sure they’d disagree with me but i believe they bring nothing good to the Victorian Division of the LP…

  21. Costello (Higgins) Appears to have lost self control, seems to do a fair bit of sulking, not what you want from a leader
    Georgiou (Kooyong) thankfully is retiring for he is bloody useless, during the recent market meltdown he felt the need to write a column not on economic management but on multiculturalism, clearly out of touch
    Robb (Goldstein) has talent but appears overly boring
    Hawker (Wannon) nearing the end of his time in politics
    Mirabella (Indi) likable but is potentially the Liberal Party’s version of Mark Latham
    Bailey (McEwen) Should retire, this seat will be very Interesting come next election
    Broadbent (McMillan) Some talent but not leadership or frontbench material
    Stone (Murray) Same as Broadbent
    Pearce (Aston) No redeeming features
    Wood (La Trobe) Interesting seat, might be a oncer
    Andrews (Menzies) A disgrace to the Parliament
    Smith (Casey) Seems boring
    Billson (Dunkley) Possible leadership material but in a marginal seat that tends to change every few elections
    Hunt (Flinders) Likable

    In the Senate

    Fifield – seems to have potential
    Troeth – Retiring which is a same
    McGauran – Rat! and is a nutter who has shown complete disregard for issues of Patient confidentiality
    Kroger – Has potential
    Ryan – Who??

  22. “Pakistan can’t control its border; they effectively don’t govern that land. It is pointless asking their permission.”

    such arrogant disregard for UN sanrtioned sovereign borders was th same shamful excuse that can be used world wide at US leisure…and lead to Lebenon disgracefy\l bmbing by israel , and this false principal under pinning shameful Iraq invasion

    And it highlites US tainting of UN resulutions when th US chooses , yet expects othrs to abide by th UN when it suits So nuke armed Russia can do th same thing cann’t they…and people wonder why West is disrespectd and there’s trouble pots everywhere…its th moronic thinking refleked in abov quote

  23. Glen!! I spent a few years in Dunkley and I can assure you that Bruce Billson is seen as a very hard working local MP! Billson has held Dunkley since 1996 including the GST election against the tide for Dunkley rejected the GST in 1993 and while he suffered a solid swing in 07 he still won the seat with a margin of over 3%

  25. Oops thanks Adam for the correction!

    When I say Mirrabella is likable I say that for I like pollies who when they speak you either hate them or love them and I don’t normally agree with her but politics is more interesting as a result of the sophie’s of this world.

  32. Adam 1127

    Thanks that was a laugh. I don’t want to make fun of peopel sho have speehc impediments, but he seemd to have trouble with quite a few words even before he got to the climax of his speech 🙂

  33. Amazing , where ar th intelectual perfect spelling left libertariens on this Site condemning unauthoriised ilegal missile attacks on sovereign Pakistan by th US…does not matter if its Bush or Obama or indeed if Chillary did , wrong is wrong as was Iraq …as was atrosity of Gaza bombing

    These things ar not just immoral , they not only breach sovereign bordars , they not only often trash UN Laws & in m/e actual UN resolitions… they ar strategically foolish & entrench resistanse , and for decades

    17,000 more US troops Obama just announces for Afganistan , and this is wiinning war on terror , not likely i can see steady more troops into that quicksand And north pakistan now offically unde Shia Law and th Talaban to fester Pakistan And we Australia regret will get dragged further in

    and what will they hav died for our diggers and those innocent civilians …thats right ShowOn’s pathetic #1117 statement that th US decides whose sovereign borfers it invades…and at its absolute discreon …..and often based on either oil , Israel or US nakd self interst …th same guy who did not condemn Gaza bombing…th same guy who luvs nuke powwer stations built here in oz I’m glad I’m unintelectual , commonsense and decency standards to me ar clear and ar reel core left principals , not airy dairy fluff

  34. It’s fascinating to observe the Libs are travelling so poorly, yet their members from Victoria are completely sidelined.

    Is it talent deficiency, personality or prejudice.

  36. […th same guy who did not condemn Gaza bombing…th same guy who luvs nuke powwer stations built here in oz I’m glad I’m unintelectual]
    LOL! 😀 Even by your standards this is f’ing hilarious.

  37. What makes it more funny is he’s reading from a script and he still buggers it up, he’s a dill…im sure the fibs could find someone who could at least appear competent to stand in Latrobe…

  41. Ron!!

    The Americans lost the plot by going to Iraq for they should have focused on Afghanistan, The Taliban deserved to be removed and its good to see President Obama turn American attention to the real war rather than the one President Bush went on.

  42. Hi All,

    Long time reader, first post.

    With all the discussion about Victoria, I was wondering why there has not been a redistribution called yet. The last restribution started on 18 January 2002, and a redistribution must occur within 7 years of the last redistribution. Has that time expired yet, or is the 7 years from the time the last redistribution finished?

    Also there are a few seats way over the mean number of electors. At the end of January 2009, Gorton is +14.89%, Lalor +14.51% and McEwen +14.99, and these deviations have been present for a while. When will these sorts of electoral imbalance trigger a redistribution?

  43. [They could if they tried…anyway the ALP have the same problem as us…]
    Not at the last election. Labor had excellent candidates compared tot he Liberals, Combet, Shorten, Arbib, Feeney, McKew, Marles, Handshin, Rishworth

  44. [Andrews (mick and a tool for busting up IR reform)]

    Yes Glen, Andrews is a tool but what’s his Catholicism got to do with it? Plenty of silly and smart Micks on both side of the parliament, why raise the spectre of sectarianism – looking for a dose of blogging semtex are we?

  46. [The Taliban deserved to be removed and its good to see President Obama turn American attention to the real war rather than the one President Bush went on.]
    Hear, hear!

  48. Sara!! Welcome, If I understand correctly a redistribution occurs every seven years or every second term therefore Victoria is due in 2010 except that is an election year therefore it may not happen.

  49. Glen,

    Costello made no speeches in 2008. In 2009 he has chosen to be completely invisible. Is he in your list of poor performers?

  50. [Im talking about lame poor performers in safe seats ShowsOn the ALP still have them but not as many as us i suppose…]
    I think we shouldn’t confuse lame performers with good back benchers. You can’t form government without some good grass roots campaigners that are good at holding marginal seats, even if they aren’t leadership material.

    For example Chris Gallus, Trish Worth, and Trish Draper all held S.A. marginals from ’96 to 2004, even though we would probably consider them ministerial duds.

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