UPDATE: This post was originally called “Newspoll minus three days”, but has been changed after Roy Morgan broke their normal fortnightly pattern by issuing results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling (i.e. before the stimulus package was announced). From a sample of 853, it shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 59.5-40.5 to 56-44. Labor’s primary vote is down four points to 46.5 per cent, the Coalition is up two to 38 per cent and the Greens are up half a point to 8 per cent.
The excitement of the past few days has quickly overloaded Tuesday’s thread, while adding real interest to the next set of opinion polls. Unless ACNielsen and Galaxy have something planned over the weekend, the next ones up are the regular Monday double of weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Newspoll. John Hewson tells Crikey he’s expecting an election later this year, presumably a double dissolution:
You’d have to think that the odds are narrowing on the possibility of an early election, towards the end of this year. At best, the Rudd Government’s second stimulatory package will just buy some time – simply delay the inevitable. As long as the global recession continues to deepen and, as a consequence, China’s growth continues to stall, the best Rudd can hope for is to hold up consumer spending by the cash handouts sufficient to avoid a technical recession – namely, two consecutive quarters of negative growth … Moreover, the ETS is to be introduced next year with all the scaremongering opportunities that carries for the major polluters. So why not go the people for a “mandate” to continue with the strategy, especially now that Turnbull has so clearly nailed his colours to the mast, becoming such a fixed target, from both outside and within?
Of course, there’s much here that might be contested, not to mention the lack of a double dissolution trigger at this stage. In brief:
• Possum dissects the electoral impact of the stimulus package here and here.
• Antony Green analyses the finalised federal redistribution boundaries for Western Australia.
• The Senate has amended legislation abolishing tax deductible political donations, which will instead be limited to donations from individuals rather than companies. Deductions applied for donations of up to $100 from individuals before the Howard government’s 2006 “reforms” jacked it up to $1500 and extended it to companies. The legislation as amended maintains the $1500 threshold.
JB, every state is going in to recession, even WA with a Liberal government.
People should understand that it is caused by sharp drop in tax receipts and nothing more. Those that do are stupid.
*don’t.
*recession with a deficit
GP, if you parents choose to work those hours then that is their problem. Don’t promulgate your angry spiteful attitudes here.
GP
Sorry if my comments made you angry, I was fortunate through luck and hard work to be in a position to aim to retire at 55. I have a “good life” because I can afford to live on Social Security. This was not because I did not work hard, it was because I did.
It did not quite work out the way I planned it. But hey thats life. I am exactly the same age as Malcolm Turnbull born on the same day.
The fallacy in your argument is that your parents are subsidising people recieving social security.
Imagine the chaos if these payments were not made, lose your job what is the alternative? Bank robbery, fraud, break and enter?
GP
[ruawake’s comments about life being “good” makes people who work 120hours a week, like my parents, paying tens of thousands in tax to subsidise this “good” lifestyle, angry.]
First of all, your parents should join a better union. 😉
Secondly, while some people think like that, many don’t. I work very long hours and pay ten times as much tax as that. And social security is one thing I would never complain about paying tax for.
Living an unhealthy / unbalanced lifestyle is not a virtue. Sometimes people are in circumstances where they have no choice to work long hours in order to stay afloat, but that doesn’t make it a good thing. Of course, most people looking after dependants spend long hours on it too, and they cetainly don’t choose that lifestyle.
Personally I expect that I am and will continue to pay far more tax than I will receive. I think that is true of most working people. But the reality is that there are always a % of human beings in our society who are incapable of looking after themselves, either permanently or temporarily. So the rest of us need to either look after them, pay/support someone else to do it, or consign them to a short unpleasant life. I like to think that one of the things that makes us civilised is that we accept that as part of the price of living in a society. Saying that we can elimnate that “cost’ is not efficiency, its barbarism.
Adam i dont get a carers benefit, i’m a war widow, my husband served in every country we were in from Korea when he was a teenager to Vietnam, a career soldier who bled and died for his beloved OZ, he believed in free speech as do i, but when you have no idea of other’s circumstances you dont make snide remarks, ruawake is by far worse off than i’ll ever be and that remark was aimed at him, i was more angry for him than myself, the couple of times i feel ive stepped over the line i’ve always admitted to ranting and apologised immediatly, i wont this time.
[makes people who work 120hours a week]
over 17 hours a day?
This is meant to be a site for political debate, not competitive victimology.
118
GP
Is this the same Peter Swan that wrote the article you referred to at 118?
[Personally I expect that I am and will continue to pay far more tax than I will receive. I think that is true of most working people.]
I hope so! Else the government wouldn’t have any money left over to spend on health, education, defending the country etc.
The first round of funding for climate projects has been announced.
[Climate projects share $27m in funding
February 6, 2009 – 6:19PM
The green technology sector is set to benefit from more than $27 million in new funding as part of the federal government’s Climate Ready program.
The first round of funding for the program was announced by Science Minister Kim Carr and will be shared between 32 new projects aimed at tackling climate change.
Big winners include wind turbine component manufacturer HofWind ($5 million), solar panel developer BT Imaging ($3.5 million) and wave power developer Oceanlinx Limited ($2.9 million).
Senator Carr said the funding would also help to create and support around 400 new jobs in the green sector.]
[not competitive victimology.]
can i suggest you guys go and watch a movie called: “Turtles Can Fly”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turtles_Can_Fly
So “competitive victimology” is only appropriate when meant in jest? 😛
[This is meant to be a site for political debate, not competitive victimology.]
True Adam, but surely we don’t want it to be all abstract and hypotheticals. So long as it’s not all “my folks do this therefore…” or “I”ve worked as a such and such therefore I know…”
vera
Why is the Science Minister announcing them, not the Environment Minister? I though Rudd didn’t believe in Science.
$27M is just pathetic given the $42B stimulus package.
pmsl, Adam we can all join the Victims Of Crime ass. i was a foundation member of the first one in the world here in little old Adelaide, actually it was my idea, i’m sure theres room for everyone there though i’ve retired from it since it became government run, Chris Summner was our first patron, hence my love of the labor party.
Diog
It is only the first round, I doubt the companies involved think it is pathetic, they are probably getting rather pickled about now.
I have to go now because my 93-year-old mother is coming home from the coal mine and there’s only room for one of us at a time in the iron lung.
Well funnily enough when I was working in the Construction Ind I was paying about 25000 to 30000 a year tax,now if i was in a small business I could have written a fair percentage of that off and that was from and during the recession we had to have till till 1999.
My stepson is a subbie and has his business affairs arranged so he pays very little tax,runs his own business,and works about 13 hrs a day,if he can do that,please don’t give me sob storeys about business people.
Because from what I have seen of small business there’s a fair percentage who are very good at milking the system
wth???
[A new study in Canada suggests that the collapse of a large portion of the Antarctic ice shelf would shift the very axis of the planet.]
ok, look no doubt this is a bit of a media beat up, and there published article no doubt has lots of “coulds” and “maybes” and “theoreticallys” in it, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say without doing any research whatsoever that the axis is in no danger of shifting.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/06/2484792.htm?section=justin
Back at the cricket: They’re filming close-ups of the moon again.
[only room for one of us at a time in the iron lung.]
iron lung? you are lucky.
JB, every state is going in to recession, even WA with a Liberal government.
People should understand that it is caused by sharp drop in tax receipts and nothing more. Those that do are stupid.
Bob, i thought Sth. Aust would probably squeeze through, the thought of him next door crowing and MHS’s face peering at me from the telly is too much for this old dear to bear.
[Back at the cricket: They’re filming close-ups of the moon again.]
24 off 25.. not looking good for Australia…
[I have to go now because my 93-year-old mother is coming home from the coal mine and there’s only room for one of us at a time in the iron lung.]
Or maybe you could admit that your statement was ill-considered?
226 Groggy, what did i say about the 60s revival? the Easybeats. It’s very catching.
ruawake
It’s about 0.05% of the size of the stimulus package. Unless they get about twenty times as serious (a whole 1% of the stimulus package), I’m comfortable with “pathetic”.
JB
We’re absolutely rooted in SA now. Rann’s going to have an awfully hard time justifying $2B+ on the Marj now. The people I spoke to after the announcement were pretty pissed off.
Some poeple really have no sense of humour:
[Tourism Minister Desley Boyle says she is not amused by a fake video of Osama bin Laden applying to work for Tourism Queensland.
…
The latest application, posted on a video-sharing network, claims bin Laden is well suited to the job and that he enjoys “the outdoors and sandy areas”.
While it appears the video was posted as a joke, Ms Boyle says it is not amusing.
“Some people mean to have a joke, but they go too far sometimes and that one isn’t really very funny,” she said. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/06/2483915.htm
oh c’mon it’s a little bit funny (if a bit “undergraduate” – I mean let’s be honest the job is a joke to begin with, why treat it with respect)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMfojmVlP-c
i loathe cricket, never mind the crows are playing the allstars up north tomorrow night so i’ll get my fix then.
Dio, i bet we still get the Marge 🙂
JB, the Crows players would be glad to escape to the relative cool of Darwin!
Diog
While the amount is small compared to the stimulus package is it fair to compare the two?
I am sure the companies who have recieved the funds are very happy.
[We’re absolutely rooted in SA now. Rann’s going to have an awfully hard time justifying $2B+ on the Marj now. The people I spoke to after the announcement were pretty pissed off.]
If voters aren’t willing to support a government that wants to build a new metropolitan hospital, we may as well give up on democracy and just revert to anarchy.
[WASHINGTON – NEW US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has chosen to visit Indonesia on her first overseas trip because she wants to ‘reach out’ to the Muslim world, a spokesman said on Thursday.]
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/SE%2BAsia/Story/STIStory_334867.html
Diog, Obi is floundering in DC while classy Hillary struts the World Stage. The Indonesians are over the moon that she has chosen to go there first. They will probably make her the Queen of Borobudur. I also hope she will visit the shack where Obi used to live as a six years old.
Diogenes
I think Kev is a clever man so why wouldn’t he beleive in science? $27m is a start and it does say it is the first stage so I would suspect there will be more money to come.
the $42bil is for stimulus needed to get us through tough times and hpoefully stave off a recession and I feel shouldn’t be compared to other funding
You can scoff but I reckon the people involved in the 32 projects and the recipients of the new jobs they will provide will be happy.
I would have thought many small projects like these
[wind turbine component manufacturer HofWind ($5 million), solar panel developer BT Imaging ($3.5 million) and wave power developer Oceanlinx Limited ($2.9 million).]
would be a good way to start the ball rolling.
Grog amen to that, i must admit the Osama thing did tickle my funny bone, very, very schoolyard humour though.
ShowsOn
[If voters aren’t willing to support a government that wants to build a new metropolitan hospital, we may as well give up on democracy and just revert to anarchy.]
Using that logic, every capital city should be building a new metropolitan hospital without any regard to the logistics, cost or need.
JB I see Renmark is forecast to be 48C tomorrow. I’ve a few relatives in the riverland who’ll be working the air conditioners pretty hard.
[Using that logic, every capital city should be building a new metropolitan hospital without any regard to the logistics, cost or need.]
No, I was referring specifically to the Marj. South Australia has needed a new metro hospital for 10 to 15 years. We finally have a government willing to do it.
ShowsOn, Dio and i are on opposite sides when it comes to “the Marge” {gawd i do hate that name} Dio and his compatriots see no need for it and as a prospective patient i welcome it with open arms, i dont want to lie in bed and count the cracks in the ceiling lol.
GP and Adam. Your both smart enough to recognise that your comments went too far. I have no doubt both of you realise this so just drop the ego for a minute and say “sorry, that was too much”
Simple as that and you know it
[i dont want to lie in bed and count the cracks in the ceiling lol.]
Or the asbestos.
[Or the asbestos.]
surely they’d charge extra for that 🙂
anyhoo, ‘nough for me. night all.
[Or maybe you could admit that your statement was ill-considered?]
My comments may be wrong but they are never ill-considered.
Grog it’ll be hot enough here in Salisbury, i’ve ducted evaporative but when it’s over 40 then it’s useless, my son has an outside room with a refridgerative AC, the only thing is he doesnt like anyone on his turf so i’ll just have to grin and bear it.
vera
That’s a very, very small ball he’s started rolling.
His CC policy doesn’t seem to reflect much of a belief in Science. And neither does the trivial investment in CC technology. I won’t go into his religious beliefs for fear of inciting a flame war.
gee Adam i wish i could be so self assured, by the way i mean that i’m not having a go, i can put on a big brave front and look assured but it’s all an act. 🙂 excuse the smileys but Vera has only recently shown me how to make them so i have fun doing them whenever i can.
Oz @ 178
Typical of The Australian. Blame the Blacks.
The guts of the article is also oh, so familiar. For over two hundred years non-Indigenous Australian governments of all types have demonstrated a consistent failure to understand that forced concentration, dispersion and movement of Indigenous people is a policy that simply does not work. Fail after Fail after Fail.
So what does Buswell talk about? ‘closing down communities’.
The sooner Indigenous people get a plebiscite to decide whether they really want to be ruled by successive bunches of non-Indigenous failures the better.
The probability of non-Indigenous Australians taking a punt on having such a plebiscite is vanishingly small. They would be too frightened of the results.
Rudd is even too gutless to countenance a discussion about whether or not to change the date for Australia Day.