Morgan: 60-40

Like Essential Media before it, Roy Morgan‘s first poll of the year shows no significant change from the last polls of 2008. The face-to-face survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 60-40 and their primary vote down one point to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition’s is down half a point to 35 per cent. The Greens have recovered two points from the curious slump they suffered in the first poll after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement, which brought them down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent. What’s more:

• South Australia’s first state by-election since 1994 will be held tomorrow in Frome. Read and comment about it here, and tune in to this site for live coverage of the count from about 6.30pm local time.

• It appears a contest is on to fill Petro Georgiou’s Liberal preselection vacancy in Kooyong, with reports emerging that merchant banker Josh Frydenburg is not the shoo-in many had assumed. Frydenburg pursued a membership recruitment drive before the last election in an unsuccessful bid to topple Georgiou, but sources quoted by Andrew Landeryou at VexNews say two-thirds of these memberships have lapsed. This leaves Frydenberg vulnerable to opposition from Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam, previously an unsuccessful candidate for Senate preselection (and more recently mentioned as a successor to Peter Costello in Higgins), who stands poised to garner support from Georgiou and the locally powerful Ted Baillieu/David Davis faction. Also mentioned is John Pesutto, described by Melissa Fyfe of The Age as “an industrial relations lawyer who led a rewrite of the Victorian Liberal Party’s constitution last year”.

• Liberal Senator Judith Troeth has announced she will retire when her current term ends in mid-2011, adding a new dimension to the Victorian Senate preselection contest for the next election. The Nationals are likely to secure an extension of the agreement that will give them second place on a joint Coalition ticket, leaving the Liberals with the safe first position and the dangerous third. Michael Ronaldson is presumably likely to retain pole position from the 2004 election; Troeth’s departure enhances Nationals renegade Julian McGauran’s chances of taking number three.

• Marc Moncrief of The Age on the race to fill Evan Thornley’s vacancy in the Victorian upper house region of South Metropolitan:

Labor’s factions are also in a battle over how to fill the vacancy in the upper house created by Mr Thornley’s departure, with confusion over whether the Southern Metropolitan seat will be delivered to Labor’s right-wing Unity faction or to the Socialist Left. Unity faction powerbroker Michael Danby, the federal member for Melbourne Ports, is believed to have collected a number of names including Julia Mason, former candidate for the federal seat of Goldstein. However, one member of the Right faction said the Left was more likely to have a claim to the post, as Unity now holds all three of the top positions in Parliament – Premier, Deputy Premier and Treasurer. If the Left is given the nod, it will have to ensure the choice is a member who can keep the relatively conservative seat at the next election.

• Other ructions in the Victorian ALP: forces of the Right associated with Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy have formed an alliance with the Socialist Left, freezing out what The Australian’s Rick Wallace describes as “the portion of the Right aligned with state frontbenchers Tim Holding and Martin Pakula and the shop assistants’ union”. More commentary plus an intermittently interesting comments thread at VexNews.

• Large parts of the media remain convinced that Anna Bligh will shortly be calling a Queensland state election. Mark Bahnisch at Larvatus Prodeo/Crikey isn’t so sure, while fellow local Possum deems Lawrence Springborg to be no better equipped to pitch to Brisbane as leader of the Liberal National Party than he was as head of a fractious coalition.

• The silly season news cycle has been awash with talk of Barnaby Joyce seeking a berth in the lower house to assume leadership of the Nationals, at the urging of John Howard. Joyce himself has mentioned Labor’s 2007 gains of Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn. More intriguing has been talk of a move south of the border to take on independent Tony Windsor in New England, which locals quoted by Matthew Clayfield of The Australian had no trouble recognising as a most courageous proposition. Possum notes that any such move might cost the Nationals Joyce’s Queensland Senate seat in the event that the Liberal National Party disintegrates following a state election defeat.

• Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics gets in early on this year’s Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election action. This year is the turn of Derwent, a Hobart seat held for Labor by Treasurer Michael Aird; Windermere, which extends from outer Launceston up the eastern bank of the Tamar River to the sea, and is held by independent Ivan Dean; and Devonport-based Mersey, held by independent Norma Jamieson. Jamieson’s retirement after one six-year term sets the scene for an unpredictable contest likely to attract a Melbourne Cup field. Aird and Dean are almost certain to be re-elected, potentially without opposition in Dean’s case.

• The indefatigable Ben Raue at The Tally Room has moved to his own domain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

294 comments on “Morgan: 60-40”

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  2. Jeez better be careful what you write.
    Whether this bloke was serious or not who knows but he’s in big trouble now for posting that he was going to kill Obama.
    [“I have decided I will assassinate Barack Obama. It’s really nothing personal about the man … But I know it’s for the country’s own good that I do this,” Christopher wrote in a posting on the website http://www.alien-earth.org on January 11, according to the affidavit filed by the Secret Service.
    “Use of Internet chatrooms to express those threats is as much a crime as uttering the words. Threats of this nature will be pursued swiftly and vigorously.”
    Threatening to kill the US president-elect is an offense that carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison and a $US250,000 fine.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/17/2468353.htm

    I think it’s the ones who don’t advertise their intentions that are the real danger.

  3. vera
    Posted Saturday, January 17, 2009 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    “Jeez better be careful what you write.”

    So its possible they ar watching what i write , or ar they still in th deciphering stage

    I read somewhere where PM Ben chifley used to drive alone unescortd from his NSW Country town AS TH PM of oz , to Canberra for parlament , and stay in a seven star hotel ? Nah , just a simple one room apartment

    Times hav changed and reckon all progress may not be proges when you hear of nuters like ythat US bloger

  4. It would do the Liberals no harm if the right wing nutters got a good spanking at the next elections, Abbott in charge would present the electorate with a golden opportunity.

  6. [So its possible they ar watching what i write , or ar they still in th deciphering stage]
    Ron I reckon you are safe. they won’t be able to crack your code.
    Just as well all the amigos did was call Obi a few different names , I think it’s OK to do that.

  7. [I think it’s OK to do that]

    Amigo Vera, the latest Irish joke is that they are still taking bet over in Ireland on when Obi will be bumped.

  9. [If Rudd went to Maccz’s , whilst Howard was giving his concesion speech , what wuld you think]
    Hardly an equivalent situation Ron. Bush wasn’t conceding any bloody thing actually.

  13. William, there were a number of stories a few weeks ago that confirmed that the Nationals will retain their number 2 spot on the Victorian Senate ticket at the next election. I believe it was confirmed by the parties. That would at least give them one guaranteed seat. It’ll be New South Wales and Queensland that will be interesting to watch… losses there would reduce their Senate membership to 4, with Nigel Scullion almost certain to regain the leadership. Ron Boswell has pledged to resign halfway through his term though… so that could pave the way for a return for Joyce should he not win a House seat.

  14. Just heard on the ABC Newsradio that James Packer is over weight and in depression. He also cancelled his order of a $60m private jet, his new swimming pool, selling his luxury yacht and lost half of his fortune. He is worth $1.5Billion ONLY.

    Poor guy, if you cannot be happy with $1.5B why not try just a beautiful Sunday walk among the water, the trees and the birds. hey, they are free. It does make you feel good.

    Happy sunday to all, especially the Amigos.

  15. How to demonise a minority, Curious Snail style.

    [POKER machines won out with the Federal Government’s stimulus package, which has been blamed for a $15 million boost in revenue in Queensland.

    More than $167 million was spent playing poker machines in December – 10 per cent above the previous month’s $152 million.

    It was also significantly higher than for the same period in 2007.

    In 2007, punters spent $156 million in November and $153 million in December.

    The big jump last year clearly coincided with the Federal Government’s $10 billion handout on December 8, aimed to be spent in the retail sector to energise the slowing economy.]

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24927125-952,00.html

  16. Whoever leads the Liberal Party to the next election will lose (barring some truly bizarre occurrence).

    On current polling you would expect it to be an absolute slaughter, but nearly two years out I suppose there’s a lot that can happen to close the gap. But very hard to see the Liberals winning or even coming close. The best they can do is lose (say) only a few more seats, and not put 2013 totally out of reach.

    The question is: who would do the least damage? And the answer to that question is there are only two serious possibilities: Turnbull or Costello. Abbott’s too right-wing and too likely to do something (politically) crazy under pressure. Hockey’s too callow. Bishop’s useless. Hunt’s a neophyte. Robb’s barely known outside the Liberal Party. Nelson – can’t see it in this Parliament.

    Turnbull is the most centrist and has views that many people would agree with, or at least could live with. Costello’s big selling point is the strong economy when he was Treasurer, the worse the economy gets in 2009, the more of an electoral asset this becomes. If we have a recession, and it the Liberals’ polling doesn’t improve, there’ll be a huge amount of pressure on Costello to have a go at it. But I’m pretty sure he’s not interested …

  18. Judith,

    I am a Liberal voter, but you really have to wonder what Milne is smoking when he seeks to imply that Rudd is in any danger of losing the next election (whenever it happens).

    Just look at the polls, Glenn!

  19. dyno, facts are facts and Bolt, Milne, Albrechson, Akerman and Shanahan dont do the libs any favours by banging this particular drum, the libs will have to reinvent themselves before they’re electable, they need to get rid of the old hacks and dead wood and bring in some fresh new young turks with bright new ideas, for heavens sake, they’ve got discredited hacks like Heffernan, B Bishop, Ruddock, Minchin and Howard’s old sychophants swinging in the breeze, Hocky and Nelson are dead meat after their stints with work choices, thats tarred them forever, J Bishop is useless and the plaigerism tag will dog her, Turnbull is a mobile ego actively disliked by his compatriots and to be quite frank Costello would pull them down further as a leader, Howard did a great job of wrecking the party he professes to love, he’s now stirring the pot with Barnaby Joyce, Joyce would be a fool to listen to Howard, we need a good strong opposition to keep the government on it’s toes, that could only be a win win situation for the voters—- though as i’m very biased i’d like to see labor hang in there for years lol.

  20. This will be a nail to the coffin of any aspiration the Libs and their conga-line-of-suck holes (dwarf, shanana etc) have about Rudd Govt being one term wonder. It’s not just a Rudd govt, it’s Rudd/Gillard Govt and the punters love it.

    [IT’S the perfect political marriage. She lets him fly off whenever he wants to indulge his international aspirations. He lets her take centre stage, allowing her to play lead guitar, not just second fiddle.

    Monash University political scientist Nick Economou said: “If Rudd wasn’t comfortable about her being in charge, he wouldn’t be buggering off overseas the whole time.” Dr Economou said any leadership tensions between the two were still a long way off, partly because Mr Rudd had enormous authority within the party.

    “Caucus is probably comfortable with the proposition that Gillard is there if Rudd falls over,” he said.]

  22. dyno and Judith

    I agree. The current financial mess is so obviously not the government’s fault, and the coalitions senate budget tactics so obviously cynical, that this will be a strength for the government, not a weakness.

    IMO right wingers trying to influence political opinion in their direction who write stuff like Milne’s actually do their own side more harm than good. Right wingers might agree but they won’t change their vote. Left wingers will laugh at it and not change their vote. Those in the middle who read it will conclude that its a false criticism of the government, and see they are being unfairly attacked, probaby evoking sympathy.

    It reminds me of their earlierr attempt to first imply that Rudd was lazy(!!) and then imply he spent too much time flying around the world on holidays (while not attending a single cricket match). A false attack is worse than no attack at all.

  23. Peter Brent often speculates that Costello wants to take on Rudd during a honeymoon period if the economy falters. “rising unemployment, rising inflation, interest rates at eight and a half percent, Turnbull challenges the incumbent, probably Turnbull who has been trailing for their whole term just as Rudd’s popularity begins to decline, Costello hammers the point of his economic record versus Rudd’s etc” In that scenario I think it would game on even money.

    But aside from a near perfect manouvre governments generally win their first re-election. Hawke and Fraser did by landslides, Howard had a hap-hazzard first term and still limped over the line and despite journalists speculating about this and that, Rudd has had a very smooth ride thus far hence his popularity.

    I’m of the opinion that two term strategies are the way to go in your first terms out of government. Latham type politicians lose by landslides but they also deal some stinging blows to the incumbent that they still have to deal with in three years, more importantly their party rushes to the other end of the ship. If Latham had contested the 1998 election then whoever contested the 2001 election probably wouldn’t have those pesky members of the Ferguson left demanding they have a say, especially not Laurrie. You can’t just pick the most partisan hack in the party though you do need someone who is so clever Rudd can’t just parry and give a cheesy smile, Bishop could do that, they’d lose 2010 by a landslide and 2013 would be theres for the taking. Problem is convincing people in marginals to take three years of leave without pay.

  24. Dyno

    “Turnbull or Costello. Abbott’s too right-wing and too likely to do something (politically) crazy under pressure. Hockey’s too callow. Bishop’s useless. Hunt’s a neophyte. Robb’s barely known outside the Liberal Party. Nelson – can’t see it in this Parliament.”

    Dyno , “Hockey’s too callow. Hunt’s a neophyte.” to save me research on these words , I assume you’re saying NO to both , th Hunt neophyte sounds like he’s abit sexy to ladys

    However feel hunt is a long term propostiton for Part as has potential As for joe Hockey , I don’t mind Joe at all , actualy Kevin07 didn’t either , probably Joe may hav th Kim Besley look not look sound tough enough , pity there Agree on Robb and Nelson , with Robb he’s quite a smart guy but you wuldn’t hav him as 1/2 time coach inpirring th trops Yes julie just has been over promoted via her William State clan Agree also on Abbott , sorry about that ruawake hope you don’t put money on tony but Tony is a reel fundamentelist believer with no flexibility & so Party wuld know public like mor centrist ones (sorry to sneak in my centrist bit in there by way)

    so Dyno we ar agreed , its Costello or Turnbull , both hav serous but diferent plus’s as a Leader against Rudd , but both hav serous but negativ ones as well & respectave negatives of each just too big to be able to prevent normal historic 2nd term PM , ebeen if econamy gets to where i reckon ..unemoploy 6-7% , budget in deficit , tech recession , although probaly 3.5% interest rates & low inflaton

    Also dyno , reckon a ‘ronipolitc revoluton’ has occured in politcal landscape , which i’d explore with you at another time , ands in th meantime yous decipher-ers eat your hart out on that one

  26. i dont agree Costello could be a plus, his financial management was shot when it came out he let Howard have full rein and nowadays most seem to take the thought he just rode the mining boom and let it be wasted instead of investing in infrastructure, his little boy sulking and pouting hasnt done him any favours neither, quite a few of the public are shttd off he spent parliament time either out to golf and long lunches or in the back benches typing away at his wonderful book, that went as flat as a pancake as well, it was in the specials bin inside of two weeks, he’s deeply tied in with work choices and Rudd can play on that, when its a whole list of stuff folks like that can have long memories, i think the rusted on libs would be the only ones to welcome him with open arms.

  27. Judith, if the economy holds up then Robert Menzies couldn’t reduce Rudd’s majority, let alone anyone win the election. First termers have a headstart and Rudd is an unusually talented politician, irrespective of what you personally think of him he, like Turnbull and Bob Hawke is very talented.

    But his style is very much suited to the current climate, or rather 2007, whether Rudd can appear strong and compassionate when Australia is in an economic crisis is yet to be seen. And should he perform badly in a crisis, And Costello becomes the alternative talking about his eleven years of growth. Costello is a competent politician, not in the same league as Turnbull or Rudd but far more skilled than Latham or Hewson. The only way coalition could win government at the next election is under a Costello leadership, preferably with a Turnbull deputy and shadow treasurer, and during an economic melt down.

  28. njl, everyone knows that is just a Liberal fairytale.

    There was actually 16 years of economic growth. And the economy was still up and down until 2001, when the mining boom kicked in, which then saw the Liberals ride it without planning for the future.

    Interest rates to remain at a record low under a Liberal government? 11 rises?

    People see it for what it is.

    Howard didn’t really win his elections, poor Labor leadership lost them.

  29. [The only way coalition could win government at the next election is under a Costello leadership, preferably with a Turnbull deputy and shadow treasurer, and during an economic melt down.]

    njl, got any evidence of this economic meltdown yet or is it still just wishful thinking?

  30. “Howard didn’t really win his elections, poor Labor leadership lost them”

    Thats not realistic labor statregists wuld think , Howard actualy was a brillant “politican” , whether one agreed with his policys or not…..you just don’t win 4 electons on th trot solely cause th opposition Leadership is no good

  31. Ron, he was classic Howard in 2007 sans WorkChoices, look at all the bait that Labor would normally have fallen for, but under Rudd didn’t.

    Haneef comes to mind.

  33. Ron Howard was a fear monger playing on everyone’s worse fears after the twin towers, before that he only scraped in getting less of the vote but having the seats, anyone can turn the crowd around playing on their fears and nightmares, he played that card till the end–what do you think the Haneef affair was about? people had sat up and noticed by then so it was an overplay by Howard.
    njl, i mix fairly widely and definately not just with laborites and no one i’ve come across yet has a good word to say about Costello, they see him as a bludger letting his party down when they needed him, gutless is how a lib pal describes him, Rudd would be able to beat him up with his involvment with the H.R.Nichols society and work choices, Costello and Minchin started the society and it was one of the main driving forces behind work choices, believe it or not most are aware he coasted on the mining boom and did little with it, the libs need a cleanskin like labor needed Rudd.

  34. Gay marriage, gays in the airforce, welfare payments to drug addicts, anti-terrorism laws….
    All pure Rove.

    BTW I’m reading a Rove bio to celebrate the end of Bush’s presidency. Rove’s dad was bisexual and a body piercing fetishist (as well as not being his real dad, a fact Rove only found out when he was 18). Rove’s mum committed suicide. It sort of explains Rove’s totally sociopathic personality.

  35. Bob I do agree with you, I don’t believe Howard was a formidable politician. He lost in 87, in 96 he beat an old, stale, arrogant, unpopular government, in 98 he lost the popular vote and the first re-election bid is normally a very safe one, he was trailing greatly in 2001 before tampa and 9.11, events I believe were worth about 5% in votes to any incumbent government and defeated a very silly leader in Mark Latham. No grand wins along the line in my opinion, he showed considerable skill during the Tampa, I’ll hand that one to him.

    But people do not see it for how it is that is your mistake. We Bob are intellectuals, but ordinary people are not so bright. Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard, John Hewson was more capable than Bob Hawke, Paul Keating was more capable than John Hewson but John Howard ws more capable than Paul Keating. Go figure, they know nothing.

    If their is an economic meltdown and Peter Costello is the leader of the liberal party they will see this strong, loud, witty man shoving down their throats the fact that when he was in charge of the economy that things were good and now the small, glassess wearing twerp who speaks in cultivated Australian runs the economy it is going down the tube, just like he said it would. And he will tell them, don’t worry, it’s not too late, I’m still here, I can take us back from whence we came and all these stupid people out there who thought Mark Latham was going to induce a depression but thought Kevin Rudd would produce growth and employment will swallow it whole and come flocking back to Costello.

    It is bollocks and it is also very difficult to manouvre, but if the economy goes down the tube and Costello times his move that will be whats on the cards.

    And Steve, I’m not predicting or expecting an economic meltdown, merely that the two ingredients neccessary for Rudd to be a one term wonder is eco meltdown and Costello at the helm after a late leadership switch. If Costello is there for too long he’ll wear thin, he wants to be leader for nine months tops coming into the election.

  36. njl, as one of the not so bright ordinary people {albeit a very biased one} i cant swallow the Costello leading the libs to victory scenario, i know i’m not an intellectual and sometimes i hold back here because of it, but sometimes folk like me can be more in touch with the “normal” person, i’m just a very ordinary middle class old dear but i do get around, actually i’m very surprised at the scathing regard Costello is held in by my professional friends, a top criminal lawyer i know loves all things lib but he’s told me he wouldnt give Cossie a drink if he was dying of thirst, that sort of threw me, never mind, a working crystal ball would go down well right now, Rudd is seen to be trying hard and pressing the right buttons and folks seem to be satisfied with that, Rudd’s honest assessment of where we stand also seems to go down well.

  37. njl, so which economic indicators are going to tell us that we have reached a point where the Government will be changed. Is it interest rates, inflation rate,unemployment rate, the ASX 200 index, new home sales, new car sales or what exactly?

  38. Finns @ 64 that’s one sad story about the poor sad fat bugger down to his last one and a half billion. Do you think we might need to start up a collection for him?

  39. I’m not an economist or political analyst, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there was a historical correlation between high unemployment and government dissatisfaction.

  40. njl

    #85

    “Bob ,….But people do not see it for how it is that is your mistake. WE Bob ARE intellectuals, BUT ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE NOT SO BRIGHT . Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard….”

    Intelectuals ?….well I hav demolished far smarter intelectuals than you here , you elitist snobery argumment base There’s been so many slain elkitist imtelectuals I just forget most of there names , and actualy i’ve almost forgotten yours as I post

    “Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard”

    Bob hawke was a Rhods Scholar , like university trained like (th minority) elitist intelectual smug set , however whereas you lot entered Uni without either wisdom or basic commonsense , and because wisdom and basic comonsense ar not taught at Uni who’ve actualy left Uni only with a mountain of info of bewildaring facts….but still without any wisdom or basic commonsense making much of your acquired “high knowledge” rather reduntant because wisdom and basic commonsense ar pre-requisitees for reel “World” intrinsic logics …so instead you extract these mointains of Uni taught information in random form lacking reel ‘world” sense so is it any wonder your coments lack “consistant” rational judgement let alone humilty …. so your post shows you ar th reel bunny and th public clever by comparison Of course if i was uneducated i’d call you a w..ank.er , but am too highly educated for that

    Now bob Hawke had wisdom & basic commonsense in bucket loads , and he’s our 3rd greatest PM , but given your random but ilogical extracton of your elitist acquired uni learnt knowledge mountain i ‘m not at all suprised you do not by yur lunderstand Hawke’s greatness

  41. vera, i’m sure i could dig deep and find a few bucks left over from my handout just before xmas, i was saving it to buy a couple of books by my favourite author but what the hell!

  43. Judith, are you giving a direct donation or using the Courier Mail approved method of drip feeding it through one of his gambling machines?

  44. Judith, politics, elections and opinion polls are a funny business. For whatever reason leading a party, or being the prime minister itself means people use a whole different set of criteria to evaluate you.

    Nelson although not particularly popular was a competent minister for Howard and on the whole an assett to the Howard government. Some might say “Nelson, the bastard who took us to war and…” Nelson didn’t declare war on Iraq it was a cabinet decision, like most major policies, he, as was his job, converted them into workable policies and defended them, sold them to the public, under the circumstances he did quite well.

    But as a party leader the word that comes to mind straight off the bat is hapless. He seemed small, he seemed overstretched, his style of dialogue that seemed so useful as a cabinet minister for connecting with middle Australia made him seem like a pretender trying to play with the big boys(Rudd, Tanner, Costelloand Turnbull).

    All people really saw Costello is economic, parliamentary and party machine, parliamentary he has a belligerent smart arse demeanour, economically he was tough and uncompromising, GST on food, workchoices, service cuts, and in the party machine he seemed jealous, scheming and less than slightly brave. When he is leader his relationship with the machine won’t be so relevant, his economic policy will only be part of what he stands for(and if it were during an economic meltdown his policies would be lauded anyway) and his parliamentary demeanour…well it would probably be belligerent smartarse but thats not so bad if it’s in conjunction with other good stuff. When you lead the party people ask you about where you grew up, what your favourite food is, whats your favourite film, you become a person not a functionary.

    Furthermore the economic climate at the time will shape to a large extent the way people view Rudd, and the way people view Rudd will largely shape the way they view the alternative party of government and their leader. If things stop looking so flash, and on that point Steve I think it will be unemployment, interest rates, budget deficits and the amount of government spending that will shape the way people think the Rudd goverment is managing the economy, although I am talking in extremes, slightly less sunny economic conditions than under Howard isn’t going to make people abandon Kevin. If the economy is poor, Costello had just returned to the leadership he will find himself more popular than he ever did as treasurer.

    Another point to emphasise is there is a reason he will want to let the dust settle and stay out of the road for a while, Nelson and Turnbull are suffering the consequences of taking on a new government when the old one had lost popularity. By 2010 Howard/Costello government will seem alot more tolerable to the swinging voters then it does right now.

    Oz, I don’t think that it favours any particular party, but I do believe, as Peter Brent believes, as Tom Switzer believes, as Paul Keating believes that economic turbulence does leave the electorate more inclined to change than economic growth and stability.

  45. Ron to mistake an education for intellect would be a grave error, I consider Paul Keating to be by far the most intelligent prime minister I have lived through though not the most sensible or moral I am fairly certain had the least educational qualifications of any post war prime minister.

    Your other grave error was to extract part of what I said out of context so to completely mistake the point. Australians weren’t stupid for voting in Bob Hawke, they were stupid because somehow they came the conculsion that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.

  46. Howard might have got a medal for toeing the line from his master George W Bush but he never got made a Chief.
    [PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea (PNG Post-Courier, Jan. 7, 2009) – The Prime Minister’s office yesterday confirmed that Sir Michael Somare had written to former Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke late last year to formally inform him of becoming a PNG chief.
    Mr Hawke was awarded the highest honour available to a non-citizen – the Grand Companion of Logohu (“GCL”) with the title of “Chief”.

    Sir Michael invited Mr Hawke to visit Papua New Guinea at the time of the investiture ceremony tentatively set for the first week of March.]
    http://www.solomontimes.com/news.aspx?nwID=3346

  47. sorry Steve i couldnt imagine anything more boring than sitting on a stool pressing a button, besides flashing lights and jangling music gives me a headache–i guess it’ll have to be courier–does anyone have his address?

  48. njl

    “he Costello seemed jealous, schemingless , and less than slightly brave”

    “and LESS than SLIGHTLY brave”

    you just proved my point , you learnt too many words and don’t know how to rationaly make a judgemtn from them …..and you done th imposible…made Costello neither brave nor a coward

  49. Schemingless is a pretty bad typo, but it’s just a type, I had thought of saying gutless but thought it was abit harsh and changed it to less than slightly brave. And I have nothing impossible unless it is impossible to accurately state how he is percieved by swinging voters.

  50. njl, i humbly bow down to your superior intellect, thanks for the lesson, mind you still havnt addressed the H.R.Nichols/work choices leaden brick Cossie has hanging around his neck, anyone who thinks Rudd is too much of a gentleman to overlook anything in a cat fight is dreaming, Rudd will just do it in a much more gentlmanly polite way thats all, for all his trying Cossie never ever managed to get the measure of Rudd.

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