Like Essential Media before it, Roy Morgan‘s first poll of the year shows no significant change from the last polls of 2008. The face-to-face survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 60-40 and their primary vote down one point to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition’s is down half a point to 35 per cent. The Greens have recovered two points from the curious slump they suffered in the first poll after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement, which brought them down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent. What’s more:
• South Australia’s first state by-election since 1994 will be held tomorrow in Frome. Read and comment about it here, and tune in to this site for live coverage of the count from about 6.30pm local time.
• It appears a contest is on to fill Petro Georgiou’s Liberal preselection vacancy in Kooyong, with reports emerging that merchant banker Josh Frydenburg is not the shoo-in many had assumed. Frydenburg pursued a membership recruitment drive before the last election in an unsuccessful bid to topple Georgiou, but sources quoted by Andrew Landeryou at VexNews say two-thirds of these memberships have lapsed. This leaves Frydenberg vulnerable to opposition from Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam, previously an unsuccessful candidate for Senate preselection (and more recently mentioned as a successor to Peter Costello in Higgins), who stands poised to garner support from Georgiou and the locally powerful Ted Baillieu/David Davis faction. Also mentioned is John Pesutto, described by Melissa Fyfe of The Age as “an industrial relations lawyer who led a rewrite of the Victorian Liberal Party’s constitution last year”.
• Liberal Senator Judith Troeth has announced she will retire when her current term ends in mid-2011, adding a new dimension to the Victorian Senate preselection contest for the next election. The Nationals are likely to secure an extension of the agreement that will give them second place on a joint Coalition ticket, leaving the Liberals with the safe first position and the dangerous third. Michael Ronaldson is presumably likely to retain pole position from the 2004 election; Troeth’s departure enhances Nationals renegade Julian McGauran’s chances of taking number three.
• Marc Moncrief of The Age on the race to fill Evan Thornley’s vacancy in the Victorian upper house region of South Metropolitan:
Labor’s factions are also in a battle over how to fill the vacancy in the upper house created by Mr Thornley’s departure, with confusion over whether the Southern Metropolitan seat will be delivered to Labor’s right-wing Unity faction or to the Socialist Left. Unity faction powerbroker Michael Danby, the federal member for Melbourne Ports, is believed to have collected a number of names including Julia Mason, former candidate for the federal seat of Goldstein. However, one member of the Right faction said the Left was more likely to have a claim to the post, as Unity now holds all three of the top positions in Parliament – Premier, Deputy Premier and Treasurer. If the Left is given the nod, it will have to ensure the choice is a member who can keep the relatively conservative seat at the next election.
• Other ructions in the Victorian ALP: forces of the Right associated with Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy have formed an alliance with the Socialist Left, freezing out what The Australian’s Rick Wallace describes as “the portion of the Right aligned with state frontbenchers Tim Holding and Martin Pakula and the shop assistants’ union”. More commentary plus an intermittently interesting comments thread at VexNews.
• Large parts of the media remain convinced that Anna Bligh will shortly be calling a Queensland state election. Mark Bahnisch at Larvatus Prodeo/Crikey isn’t so sure, while fellow local Possum deems Lawrence Springborg to be no better equipped to pitch to Brisbane as leader of the Liberal National Party than he was as head of a fractious coalition.
• The silly season news cycle has been awash with talk of Barnaby Joyce seeking a berth in the lower house to assume leadership of the Nationals, at the urging of John Howard. Joyce himself has mentioned Labor’s 2007 gains of Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn. More intriguing has been talk of a move south of the border to take on independent Tony Windsor in New England, which locals quoted by Matthew Clayfield of The Australian had no trouble recognising as a most courageous proposition. Possum notes that any such move might cost the Nationals Joyce’s Queensland Senate seat in the event that the Liberal National Party disintegrates following a state election defeat.
• Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics gets in early on this year’s Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election action. This year is the turn of Derwent, a Hobart seat held for Labor by Treasurer Michael Aird; Windermere, which extends from outer Launceston up the eastern bank of the Tamar River to the sea, and is held by independent Ivan Dean; and Devonport-based Mersey, held by independent Norma Jamieson. Jamieson’s retirement after one six-year term sets the scene for an unpredictable contest likely to attract a Melbourne Cup field. Aird and Dean are almost certain to be re-elected, potentially without opposition in Dean’s case.
• The indefatigable Ben Raue at The Tally Room has moved to his own domain.
vera, i’m sure Hawky’s chieftianship is definately the higher award of the two, after all Bush’s award was handed out in bulk, this one seems a bit more exclusive, better boasting power lol.
Less than “slightly brave” – Great assessment really. I wouldn’t have been able to think that one up myself.
Judith I would respect you more for throwing my slippers at me then for fetching them even in sarcastic admiration. Basically I think so long as he isn’t so dumb as to decide to bring workchoices back as an election manifesto that within a year workchoices/H.R.Nicholas will be about as tainting as “ease the squeeze” “troops home by christmas” is for labor.
You should be weary that just as Keating’s earlier quickwit, sense of humour and willingness to be blunt was once endearing only to become arrogance, Kevin Rudd’s chivalry which I love, i really do, will wear thin and before you know it the electorate wll think it smug, pompous and lofty. Politics is a very unfair world it’s no wonder people like Joh turn corrupt.
Perhaps I should just clarify, one of my habits when speaking/writing is to be round about and at times delicate. Describing things as less than slightly something is a common thing, in particular I describe alot of things as less than slightly gruntled, rather than call them disgruntle. I like words, there fun.
njl is looking for:
“rising unemployment, rising inflation, interest rates at eight and a half percent”
This is not about stagflation, it’s about deflation, rising unemployment, deflation and interest rates stuck around zero for decades. Don’t assume the problems seen are the problems to be.
Judith Barnes
“njl, i humbly bow down to your superior intellect”
so you damn well should , after all njl in 395 said “Australians weren’t stupid for voting in Bob Hawke, they were stupid because somehow they came the
conculsion that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.”
I mean “a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.”…someone is doing an amateurish job pof cloning ronilinguistics her However Judith if you read this pearler from njl $85
“We Bob are intellectuals, but ordinary people are NOT so bright. Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard, John Hewson was more capable than Bob Hawke, Paul Keating was more capable than John Hewson but John Howard ws more capable than Paul Keating. Go figure, they know nothing.”
Now what njl is saying is quote he is an intelectual and public ar not beright , but that he njl (intelectual and bright) has no bloody idea why voters voted in and out those politcans , but judith we do …and so do th public , so actualy you ar th clever one after all
What I’m really looking at is people finding it harder to make ends meet. Don’t really care wht it is that actually causes it, I just cited some of the usual suspects.
Ron, you’re rather good at paraphrasing things in a way that distorts the meaning ever so slightly and attacking the paraphrase and not the original. You might get away with doing that to ordinary people but alas I am an intellectual.
What I am saying is that swinging voters generally operate under the system that they change governments when they get bored of the old people unless the alternative provides a reason not to and that is is not supremely arrogant to scoff at these kingmakers.
njl
some interesting points to ponder.
Tip is still a “contender’- whether as a stalking horse or the real deal is yet to be seen.
One big pointer is that he is still in Parl.
(milne reinforces the “good” pete by such lines as “Peter Costellos 22b surplus”)
“Ron, …. but alas I am an intellectual”
Well to be acurate an elitist snobby based intelectual , and my goodness ..alas
.
your problam is I ACTUALY quoted you acurately….and then indicated how ridiculous what you said was
Now you may get with absurd politcal coments on an amateur politcal blog like ACTUALY your quote “they (th public) were stupid because somehow they came the conculsion that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.” But not here , this is reel high class politcal intercourse here , and your sloppy , and smug , stuff does not cut mustard
I’ve been Newspolled, which suggests pretty strongly that they’ll be publishing one on Tuesday.
For those interested in what else they might publish polls on, the only other ‘political’ issue I was asked about was attitudes to live sheep exports (seems odd timing as the issue hasn’t exactly been at the front of the news agenda in the last few months). There was also a swag of market research questions, including several about any recent visits I might have made to Port Phillip or Westernport Bay, which I thought was going to be a lead-in to questions about channel deepening, but wasn’t.
Ron I think you left out smug on your list of epithets but don’t worry ordinary people can be forgiven for making such errors. You quoted me yes, and then went on to say that what i mean by that is… What I actually meant by that, (shocking as this may sound) is precisely what I said.
Don’t worry though I’ll try and lift my game to keep up with you comrade.
njl
“What I actually meant by that, (shocking as this may sound) is precisely what I said. ”
Yep quote “We Bob are intellectuals, but ordinary people are NOT so bright.”
I knew what you wrote was quote “precisely what I said.”
Now njl as four “Don’t worry though I’ll try and lift my game to keep up with you comrade.”….well njl , make sure your english is of a high stansard as well , this Site is very particular about that
now, now njl, i gave up looking for respect from any source yonks ago, though fate has forced me into dealing with pollies and professionals i cant say i’d call them intellectuals—all except for Lynn Arnold who was a true brain and a good friend even before i was thrown in the path of my other betters, i’m sure they all just smilingly tolerate me most times and put up with my love of bailing them up about politics, you’ll just have to be patient with me though i’m a very slow learner, i still cant get my head around Cossie gloriously leading the libs to victory, have you met the man? mind he is one better than dolly was, have you ever had a very limp handshake? it’s not nice let me tell you, still i guess stranger things have happened so i’ll just have to keep up my quest for that elusive crystal ball, if i believe in karma and nemisis {which i do} i can believe in a crystal ball also—unless you’d like to lend me yours.
Blair, good to see Newspoll back even though we knew it as soon as Liberal Headquarters trotted out njl to try to give their supporters some sort of oblique hope for the future.
Blair, newspoll in disguise, excellent looks like things will get back to normal and the long boring summer break is over, it reminds me of just how much i loathe cricket and tennis.
njl, i apologise for being a btch, not for the things i’ve said about Cossie though, i truly believe them, i’m a little jumpy right now waiting for news i want but dont want that still may not happen, sounds cryptic i suppose but true, i shouldnt take my sleeplessness and nerves out on being sarcastic to someone else, though you must admit the intellectual bit was–well– rather pompous sounding, i warned you i’m one of the great unwashed lol, cheers, judy.
i thought Wriedt resigned earlier, hmmm i could have sworn i read that somewhere.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/01/18/2468568.htm
Despite the doom and gloom in the popular press, the mortgage belt are screaming yippee, even ones with only a $150,000 mortgage are saving $50 a week. With more to come.
The one’s who have to commute by car are saying yeah, it costs me $60 to fill up the Commodore instaed of $90.
That why Rudd is popular, the Great Global Financial Swindle is helping many. If interest rates keep falling expact the popularity to increase.
The great hope for the Libs is unemployment – but they ensured this will stay low (statistically) by creating a casualised work-force, intentionally.
The majority of people hurt by the GGFS voted Liberal – The Fred Nurk and Associates types with the leased Lexus. The ones who fell for the false dream, bugger equity go into debt.
Get a low doc loan and sell it before you have to pay for it, in the old days they were called con-men.
I am happy the Great Swindle has occurred – maybe now people who do real stuff and make real stuff can be elevated to real people and the shonks and con-men can go back where they belong. (selling used cars). 🙁
Ron
If njl persists in using complete sentences with correct grammar and cogent arguments, I agree that he has no place on this blog. We can’t have our standards compromised. 😉
Diog , I may hav lived with his uncogent arguments like “that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.” because i actualy had a mathamatical scientific counter to that maths , but his corect lofty english was just beyond th pall……and as you rightly say ..We just can’t have our standards compromised when you think about it
Your continued understanding shows how enlitened you’ve become with our educationol company
Judith you’ve been fine, I know I am a bit of a smug, pompous, lofty, know it all. I enjoy it, Some will just ignore it, they’re welcome to, some will react a tad reprovingly,I don’t begrudge them for that I give them every reason to.
On Costello if he were to lead the party now he’d do terribly, odds are if he lead the party in a year he would do terribly. But a year is a long time in politics and he would be percieved considerably better, although hardly good the more time goes by, he will be almost likeable in a a year if he has laid low for a while and the economy has fallen to bits. The scenario is unlikely but it’s the coalitions best bit, Turnbull might be a more talented politician but he doesn’t have the record to stand on.
But as I mentioned before they’d be much better running a two term strategy. Hockey is the most electable candidate left,( there’s nowayTurnbull will last five years as leader) Best leave Hockey on ice for a while.
Please leave immediately.
That says more about the Liberals then thousands of pages of analysis ever could.
Hockey and Workchoices, that looks electable. It would cancel out any concerns over unemployment and people ‘not being able to make ends meet’.
Tory leaders on a whole don’t seem to be too clever,
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/nz-pm-john-key-breaks-his-arm-20090118-7juk.html
Avuncular Joe and Wonder Kev had the same media gig, Joe seemed to turn feral at some point, oh that’s right he was handed the Work Choices Gig.
Imagine if Joe had told Howard to shove it, kept his cuddly persona. He could have been the next Kimbo Beazley.
And what exactly is Hockey’s weakness Oz? Urban, socially progessive, quick witted type, relaxed, genial style of dialogue when he does press meetings, capable of reading an audience, having an ethnic background will go down well with progressive middle ground voters. Biggest problem he’d face I think would be is not coming across as boisterous in parliament which he has a habit of, and keeping the Minchin gang in check. True he’d be no match for Rudd in 2010, but by 2013 the Rudd government will be getting slightly stale, a late leadership change would give Hockey a better than even chance.
njl, Ive found your dream economy.
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/mei/nov08/02.htm
Oz, AFL and the crows are my game, i even dig deep enough to be a gold card member every year, to me cricket seems to be some silly men in white wearing funny things on their legs chucking a little red ball around, sorry i’m a cricket ignoramus but there it is.
our beloved Anthony was just on telly saying his piece about the Frome election.
there is no way Hockey will be electable as leader, he’s another Beasley {and i dearly loved Kim} at least Beasley didnt have work choices weighing him down, actually the gloss has rubbed off Hockey, he’s lost his best asset the Mr. nice guy image, opposition hasnt suited him and he has been stymied from going into state politics and becoming premier, i’ve also heard from a reliable source theres probs in the Hockey household that could distract him,
Turnbull is all ego and little else, he hasnt shown much political talent so far, apparently he’s a terrible boss, hmmm wonder if Chris Kenny will end up back as a journo, best and most even handed journo here in Adelaide is Mike Smithson.
When he opens his mouth word come out – but to mere mortals they make no sense.
How about this gem?
“”If you really want to provide an incentive for people to continue to work, to continue to invest to take risks then reducing taxes is the way to do it.”
Yes Joe, but the people who are losing their jobs have no money to invest. The only risk they face is losing their possesions.
Or is this the new Liberal Policy to reduce Company Tax???
Beazley lead the party under the most unfavourable conditions, He was every bit as competent as Kevin, he just didn’t ride a honeymoon period against an old, unpopular government.
As for Turnbull, I don’t know what your idea of political talent is, For my money he is the most talented member of the liberal party I’ve ever seen. Supposedly Harold Holt was very good but he’s a bit before my time.
Ruawake, that kind of things matter about as much as the colour of Stephen Smith’s tie and boy does he take care to wear his shiny gold ones when it’s an important occasion. Find Joe Hockey talking about the things that batter or suggesting the coalition should ease the squeeze and I’ll come round to see it your way.
njl, chart 2.2 doesn’t quite support your doom and gloom scenario too well, does it?
http://www.budget.gov.au/2008-09/content/myefo/html/part_2.htm
i honestly dont believe the next prime minister for the libs is in parliament yet, they need to get rid of all the dead wood swinging in the breeze and bring in new blood, too many with even the smidgen of talent are tainted by being Howard’s lackeys and those with any real talent Howard got rid of early in the piece, the rest are just hacks hanging on for their pensions, some have thrown Pyne’s hat into the ring but i think thats pure desperation, i know he fancies himself but he’s too much of a mummies boy and it shows.
Steve I must have missed the part where I said I anticipated an economic meltdown. I do recall suggesting that should it happen late in Rudd’s first term Costello would have an even money chance of taking government if he could get a late leadership change but that’s quite a different thing all together.
Turnbull is not a politician – if he was he would have beaten Nelson as was widely expected. But just as he is about to be annointed as the chosen one – he shoots his mouth off and scares 5 kinds of crap out of Nick’s crew.
If he had just shut up for a couple of days it was his on a plate.
He is good when asking the questions but horrific when caught off message. He just waffles and puts on the cheesy grin.
Abbott just stays on message – no matter the question he just rams his point. Malcolm is a tad too polite.
NJL
“I know I am a bit of a smug, pompous, lofty, know it all. I enjoy it, Some will just ignore it, they’re welcome to, some will react a tad reprovingly”
“some will react a tad reprovingly” ,
you ar exagerating there , i wuld hav said
“some will react LESS than SLIGHTLY a tad reprovingly”
Now you can reclaim some kudos by being a cricket lover like Judith “it reminds me of just how much i loathe cricket” , geez Judith I spilt me coffee when i read that I went to th day niter Friday nite at th G , and its all etiqete and chardy culture and great batsmenship , and th more you drink th more you like it
Not sure if this has been posted yet…
Sartor tests the water as tide turns on Rees
My inner cynic now expects Rees won’t be NSW premier any more by the end of the month.
Yes, very clever njl, I don’t anticipate an economic meltdown but should it happen… is anticipating an economic meltdown as far as I can see.
Ruawake, it is a big mistake to your project your own views onto the electorate. You may be receptive to Abbotts style, but he is a polarising figure and one prone to saying dumb tinhs. Being able to smile politely and waffle is actually a good skill if there is nothing good can come out of interview.
Steve you are reading words that are not there I am afraid. I don’t expect an economic meltdown, I never said I expected one. Should Tony Abbott become leader I expect North Sydney to turn marginal. But that doesn’t mean I expect Tony Abbott to become leader.
njl
Just calling it as I See it. Politicians go on the telly for two reasons – to promote themselves or to promote party policy. Malcolm gets lost in the policy bit, that is why he is not a politician.
Actually Ron if I was to do my less than slightly thing I would have said. Some will be less than slightly gruntled about it.
but that wuld hav been less than slightly acurate …as if your econamic meltdown coment mixed with gruntled
sorry Ron i hope you didnt burn yourself re the coffee, but there it is, no-one can be perfect and unfortunately i loathe cricket AND tennis, gimme lots of beefcake running around in shorts flexing their manly muscles any day, now aussie rules thats a real game.
back to politics, the real best game in town, Malcolm just wont jell, he’s too involved with Malcolm, he tries to emulate Rudd’s humanitarian streak just as Nelson did and it just comes across as cynical opportunism, Rudd has been volunteering at shelters for years, he sent his cabinet out as their first job to look at shelters and write about what they’d seen, he really cares, now Turnbull gave his xmas message televised from you’ve guessed it a shelter, there he was busily packing lunches for the journos to see, it goes down as flat as Nelson’s sitting in the gutter did, nobody but nobody would believe silvertail Turnbull spends his spare time in shelters helping his fellow man, the closest he’d get is rubbing shoulders with the cream of society at a well attended charity ball.
So the whole winning strategy of the Liberal Party is constructed on an economic meltdown that nobody anticipates?
njl
As a fellow seemingly uncommitted elitist progressive, I was quite hopeful that Turnbull would prove to be a good Opposition leader as he shares some of my values, probably as much as Rudd. But he’s been a big disappointment.
To be a success as a prominent politician, you have to be either really good at policy or politics (or even both like Rudd, as much as I don’t like to say it). Turnbull has no policies except whingeing at minor points about Labor, and he’s inept at politicking. He won’t make the next election IMHO.
It’s sad that Howard killed off Hockey by shafting him with SerfChoices after Andrews completely stuffed it up as he would have been my pick.
Hey Diog
I agree – you charming and erudite person. 😉
And before anyone sticks up for Turnbull by saying it’s not the Opposition’s job in it’s first year to come up with policies, I will remind you what a pathetic Environment Minister Turnbull was. What were his policies for Climate Change?