The latest weekly Essential Research survey (which gets its own thread in Newspoll off-weeks when there’s no Galaxy poll on the Sunday) has Labor recovering from an unheralded dip over the past fortnight, its two-party lead increasing from 56-44 to 58-42. Also featured are questions on leadership preference, which find Julia Gillard favoured over Malcolm Turnbull 39 per cent to 34 per cent and Kevin Rudd favoured over Gillard 63 per cent to 14 per cent, and expectations regarding the economy.
UPDATE (2/12/08): Today’s Courier-Mail provides further figures from yesterday’s Galaxy poll of 800 voters in Queensland, showing 38 per cent would like to go back to John Howard and Peter Costello, against 54 per cent preferring Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan.
Dario
There may be some logic to the comments on “only” 0.7% increase in retail trade figures. They need to distinguish between actual and trend changes. At this time of year retail sales always go up due to christmas shopping. A small increase is actually a poor result for many retailers.
[There may be some logic to the comments on “only” 0.7% increase in retail trade figures. They need to distinguish between actual and trend changes. At this time of year retail sales always go up due to christmas shopping. A small increase is actually a poor result for many retailers.]
The 0.7% was a seasonally adjusted figure
[Gillard is a hungry political carnivore, and no doubt about it. But yesterday it looked horribly like she was killing for sport.]
Boy, and aren’t the people up in the grandstands enjoying every minute of it.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/chucking-a-britney-a-blue-steel-and-a-hillary/2008/12/01/1227979931722.html
dave @ 67
I hope not, I want the Rudd Gov to win the next election and I’ll take anything I can get to help make that happen.
I prefer JB in her current position 🙂
Gordon Brown receiving some favourable polling. The Tories won’t be too happy though. It’s the narrowing!!!
[BRITIAN’S ruling Labour party has almost closed the gap with the main opposition Conservatives, a new poll published shows, indicating a remarkable comeback for Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Labour has bounced back from being more than 20 points behind this summer to just one point behind, in a new ComRes survey for the Independent newspaper.
Brown’s party is up five points since last month to 36 percent, and the Tories are down two to 37 percent, the poll finds. The smaller opposition Liberal Democrats were up one to 17 percent. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24738544-2703,00.html
[The GG may just refuse to accept Harper’s resignation if it comes to that…or force another election…]
Glen, if a new government can be formed in the existing parliament, the GG should surely only call an election if it asks for one. Even in 1975, the GG did not dissolve parliament without the advice of a Prime Minister. I also don’t imagine that it would be tenable to refuse to accept Harper’s resignation – the Liberals/NDP/Bloc could after all block supply and otherwise make his government unworkable.
Dario 202
If it was seasonally adjusted then you are right – that is a ridiculous story. If retail trade in Australia is still (even slightly) trending upwards in seasonally adjusted terms, that is one of the best results in the OECD right now.
[Milne is, of course, a Rudd Resister rather reviled by Rudd Relishers. Government for Rudd and his colleagues is difficult enough at the moment]
Why the silly names David? I thought you would have been above that.
My criticism of Milne is not based on his criticism of Rudd but his sheer one sided approach to his articles. This is a Liberal man masquerading as an objective journalist and presenting articles based on everthing except fact. Sorry if that offends old son too bad.
As for your bias David, one I’m sure you will deny, where is your response to people like GP and Glen who are clearly Liberal through and through, AS IS THEIR RIGHT. Why do you not call them some inane name and challenge their views? Why just me and my side of politics David? If you are indeed unbiased I would expect a challenge from you to anyone who holds strong political views for one side or the other but no, it doesn’t happen.
By all means David challenge my views but don’t pretend to be an objective observer because that you aint.
Surely Harper’s Administration is more stable than a three headed monster that includes Socialists and Sepratists…also the Canadian people didnt vote in a Coalition and the NDP and Liberal Party said they’d never do such a thing…GG Jean should either call another election or refuse Harper’s resignation and send him back to the House of Commons with another fiscal stimulus package…
Why should the GG bend over backwards to protect a government which has lost support of the House of Commons?
You have a highly curious view of the role of the GG, Glen.
Am I missing something? Has Harper offered his resignation?
No – our discussion is rested on the assumption that he will do so if he loses a confidence vote.
No Gary but if Parliament is not prorogued and he lost a vote of no confidence next week…he’d have to go to the GG and tender his resignation at which point GG Jean may just tell him to go back to the House and reintroduce a fiscal stimulus package to regain confidence…either that or Harper will be on his knees begging her to call another poll.
But chances are if the Libs/NDP Coalition does happen, id just about eat my hat if Harper didnt win a majority next election…
From my understanding in this time of economy crisis Harper is the only Government following a policy of trying to maintain a sulpus at all cost.
A policy that not only failed in the 1930s but also failed in the 1890s.
Normally I support having a balanced budget but their is a time for that policy position to be changed on the condition that it is for a short time only.
The best Harper can hope for is that he can get GG Michelle Jean to support Parliament being prorogued until his Government can introduce it’s first budget of its term in January and hope cooler heads will prevail…either that or just so he can say he’s been PM between 2006-2009 instead of 2006-2008. The Federal Liberal Party of Canada is a joke and they’ve got no money and cant raise any like the Tories can and yet they and the NDP (socialists who want to strike down business tax cuts to stimulate the economy) and the Bloc who want to screw Ottawa for every dollar it can get for Quebec without any thought to the rest of Canada…it is one bad Government if it happens.
Hey, Glen,
Have you finished eating your last hat already?
I havent had to eat my hat on anything ive bet eating my hat on scorpio….
Today’s 1% cut in Interest rates policy is welcomed, I see the CBA and NAB moving to pass on the full cut, I see Westpac have passed on most while the ANZ are reviewing the outcome.
I for one feel with this move remembering the RBA do not meet again until Feb 2009 that is strenghtens the chances that Australia will avoid a recession, a prodiction I have had since March 2008 and while from time to time I have felt I might finish up with egg, I’m starting to be confidence.
What is needed now is for the Rudd Government to remain focus.
And I’m enjoying the battle of the Jules.
[GG Jean may just tell him to go back to the House and reintroduce a fiscal stimulus package to regain confidence]
Why on earth would the GG offer policy advice to Harper?
[id just about eat my hat if Harper didnt win a majority next election…]
I dunno about that. The Liberals/NDP/Greens got more than 52% of the vote at the last election. If the new government, if it comes into being, can deliver on some positive outcomes like help Canada right out the storm in a Rudd-esque kind of way, which wouldn’t be that hard considering Canada’s banks and financial institutions have been rated highly along with Australia’s and they also have their resources to rely on, I don’t see why that vote would decline.
Glen! So you didn’t eat a hat last Novemeber.
Thanks for that. I don’t think any GG should be protecting any government.
I don’t know about the Canadian system but I thought the job of the GG was to be above politics.
Here are some details about the proposed coalition:
[Dion would become prime minister until May, when his successor would take over; NDP pledges to support Liberals for 30 months, Bloc pledges 18 months ]
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081201.wPOLcoalition1201/BNStory/politics/home
And the document itself:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/v5/content/pdf/1201policy.pdf
I haven’t had a chance to read it. Someone want to browse through and see if there’s anything that particularly stands out?
Heh, I wonder what this means for the perception that MMP is unstable and FPP is conservative and safe.
I didnt bet that then…
OZ Harper has got about 143 seats…the Liberals have 77 and NDP 30 so even together they have about 40 seats less than Harper and would have to rely on the Bloc to pass anything…hardly stable thats why Jean might not accept his resignation because the Dion plan is a joke.
OZ if it werent for the Bloc Harper would easily have a majority…they’ve ruined everything because they take seats away from federalist party’s trying to win government…FFP creates a stable system if you dont have a party wanting to destroy the country take 50 seats out of 300.
Quite so, MB. If a government can be formed that can obtain confidence and supply, the GG should commission it. If not, he or she should appoint ministers willing to advise a dissolution. He or she should certainly not be dispensing orders about fiscal stimulus packages.
William but the people didnt vote for that…the Liberals and NDP both said they’d not engage in a Coalition and its only that they lost they then try to steal power…the will of the Canadian people was a strengthened Harper Minority Government not this not this William no sir!
Jean should send Canada back to the polls…
Glen, you keep asserting the GG should be making political judgements. She shouldn’t. I also don’t understand how she’s supposed to refuse the resignation of a PM who has lost the confidence of parliament, and thus cannot secure supply.
[OZ Harper has got about 143 seats…the Liberals have 77 and NDP 30 so even together they have about 40 seats less than Harper and would have to rely on the Bloc to pass anything]
Glen that doesn’t mean anything. In a Parliamentary democracy whoever can get supply and confidence pretty much becomes the Government. The majority of elected representatives in Parliament don’t have confidence in the Conservatives and want to replace them with a Liberal/NDP coalition. It’s not really that complicated.
[OZ if it werent for the Bloc Harper would easily have a majority…they’ve ruined everything because they take seats away from federalist party’s trying to win government]
That’s a silly statement. The Bloc does exist and it has seats in Parliament because the people vote for it. It isn’t magically put there. Regardless of all that, you realise that either way the Government is going to be supported by the Bloc? The Conservatives and the coalition would both need them, so there’s no point in saying only the Libs are doing a deal with the devil.
[Jean should send Canada back to the polls]
Why? The current elected Parliament has managed to find a potential government they can have confidence in, which is one of the points of Parliament. The fact that the potential government is not of your political liking is, frankly, irrelevant.
Back to Australia politics for a second, what was Albanese’s address to the Press Club about? What’d he say?
William the Harper Government has only just been re-elected and it recieved a vote of confidence in the throne speech.
The most she should offer Harper is prorouging Parliament to at least let tempers ease.
Then if he loses a vote of no-confidence in January so be it.
mmmmmmeeeeeooooowwwww
Regardless of whether or not there is another election in Canada, it is by no means certian that Steven Harper will be the conservative leader:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/546661
Oz @ 233, I don’t know all of the details of the speech, but it had something to do with the aviation industry in Australia.
http://www.npc.org.au/speakerArchive/antanl.html
William Bowe
#206
Posted Tuesday, December 2, 2008 at 3:21 pm | Permalink
“Glen, if a new government can be formed in the existing parliament, the GG should surely only call an election if it asks for one. Even in 1975, the GG did not dissolve parliament without the advice of A Prime Minister”
I can remain silent no longers
“without the advice “A” Prime Minister” ?….”A” prime minister (Fraser) unelected ….A prime minister (Fraser) who did NOT hav th confidence of th House…as proved by successive no confidence motions
1975 had nothing at all to do with traditional “confidence” of th House of Reps nor of a queston of majority Party in HoR …it had all to do with th unrepresentaitive Swill (Senate) withholding “Supply”
“A” Prime Minister (Fraser) REPRESENTING th unrepresentative majority Senate swill was who 1975 GG took advice from …who guaranteed supply and to call an electon
So do not agree with your analogy William to Canada
In Canada those who ar th elected majority (WHOEVER combination of Partys there ar involved) BOTH decide if no confidence motions pass AND decide if Supply passes , thats quite diferent to th 1975 shame where former decided in Hor and latter decided by unreopresentative Senate swil
I seem to recall Bob Dylan wrote a song called: “Dont Think Twice, It’s Alright”. The Indians must have adopted that attitude.
[“Indian security forces have confirmed to CNN that not only did US officials warn them of a water-borne attack in Mumbai — they were told twice. ]
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/US_warned_India_twice_about_sea_attack_on_Mumbai/articleshow/3782923.cms
So unlkike 1975 , if Harper loses no confidence and wants to resign , GG should accept it and require an electon …assuming another combination of Partys can not secure confidense of house
Glen, I lived in the US, specifically Michigan outside of Detroit, for 43 years. Close enough to Canada I feel like an honorary Canadian. Cutting right to the point, I’ve seen lots of Canadian politics up close and personal over the years and since the major implosion of Canadian politics in 1993, no one can take a trick over there. The various factions and parties are becoming more and more set in concrete and I don’t see any easy fixes for them no matter which party rules. The political landscape has become way too polarized in the last 15 years. Others can correct me if I am wrong, but I think Canada has a first past the post system? That, in and of itself, is part of their problem.
Agree with Ron on 1975 and either way, Harper is in trouble in Canada. Glen, as we all know the role of PM is not even defined in most British Commonwealth style parliaments. The only thing that matters is a majority in the House. If Harper is defeated, speaking of the Harper government is a bit like talking about dead parrotts.
I seem to recall somebody offering to eat their hat if Maxine Mckew beat John Howard in Bennalong!!
Thanks Juliem!
Didn’t Curtain become PM without an election? I don’t see why a new election is necessary as long as a government can be formed. Surely that’s what representative government is all about.
Here’s an interesting article on the constitutional situation in Canada. There is no doubt in my mind that the GG should refuse a dissolution if Harper advises one at this point, but a request to prorogue would indeed open a can of thorny potatoes.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081201.wgg02/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostemail
Ron, Fraser had a commission from the GG to be prime minister, and that made him prime minister. I’m not asking you to like it, but that is the indisputable legal fact of the matter.
Juliem with great respect…think of it like this.
That in Victoria that some separatist party wins 30 out of 37 seats and whose platform it is to break away from Australia. Then they can hold to ransome Parliament and make it impossible for any federalist party (ALP or Liberal) to Govern…
That is how bad the Bloc are and they are supporting the Liberals/NDP! The left of Canada ought to be ashamed!
The political voting system has nothing to do with it Juliem…it has to do with the traitorous Quebecers.
[That is how bad the Bloc are and they are supporting the Liberals/NDP!]
You still haven’t answered the fact that the whoever gets confidence, the Conservatives or the left coalition, will need votes from the Bloc. So jumping up and down about separatists is irrelevant.
No Oz they recieve votes from the Liberals as well…
The situation is clearly different from that of Australia’s constitutional crisis. The only similarity is that both governments have lost the ability to govern as parliament stood. Fraser, however, was also incapable of governing, leading to both parties having a majority in a single house, and neither able to guarantee stable government. Canada, on the other had, has a coalition ready and able to govern the moment Harper is toppled, making an election entirely unnecessary.
As others have noted, this is much closer to the situation in 1941, where the coalition government was brought down by a no confidence vote when two members crossed the floor, and Curtin was subsequently sworn in as prime minister,governing for two years before the next election.
You can argue all you want about mandates and the will of the people, but this seems to me to be a perfectly legitimate move by the left wing bloc that has formed. The only thing I can’t understand is why they didn’t do something like this during Harper’s first term.