Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (which gets its own thread in Newspoll off-weeks when there’s no Galaxy poll on the Sunday) has Labor recovering from an unheralded dip over the past fortnight, its two-party lead increasing from 56-44 to 58-42. Also featured are questions on leadership preference, which find Julia Gillard favoured over Malcolm Turnbull 39 per cent to 34 per cent and Kevin Rudd favoured over Gillard 63 per cent to 14 per cent, and expectations regarding the economy.

UPDATE (2/12/08): Today’s Courier-Mail provides further figures from yesterday’s Galaxy poll of 800 voters in Queensland, showing 38 per cent would like to go back to John Howard and Peter Costello, against 54 per cent preferring Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

706 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. [Let’s cut emmissions by 100% from 2/12/08.]

    We don’t need to cut emissions by 100%. But we do need to cut them more than Wong and Rudd’s target.

  2. Doesn’t matter which one the Libs trot out as leader, does it? 😀 ….

    OT to federal polls but on topic for WA (and Antony was moaning about Tasmania going to fixed terms) …..

    [
    Barnett signals fixed four-year terms
    December 1, 2008 – 3:19PM

    Premier Colin Barnett has signalled legislation to bring in fixed, four-year terms of government in WA.

    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/barnett-signals-fixed-fouryear-terms-20081201-6on2.html
    ]

    If successful, the legislation would mean the Barnett government sitting for almost four and half years.

  3. [Premier Colin Barnett has signalled legislation to bring in fixed, four-year terms of government in WA.]

    If I recall correctly, when Lablor proposed such a move, it was opposed by the now Liberal government.

  4. Haha

    Mesmerelda’s cat claw outburst today in the house at Julia the magnificent shown on Ch 9 news in sydney. As I said at the time old mesma realised she had been sprung by the camera just after the dummy spit.

    TPD and the limited news mob are not going to like that.

  5. [If I recall correctly, when Lablor proposed such a move, it was opposed by the now Liberal government.]

    That should be of course Labor 🙂

  7. The Oz don’t appear to be too happy after Bishop’s latest spray at them and Chris Mitchell.

    They have reprinted Peter van Onselen’s well directed retort at Bishop in the The Sunday Telegraph. He didn’t miss with this well directed broadside. Today’s QT will help him along with a bit more ammunition.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24733596-5013871,00.html

    After all this and the Essential Research figures comparing her to Julia, I don’t think she will be able to hold out too much longer.

    I would love the next couple of Polls to do a comparision with Swannie.

  9. The new WA parliament could sit for almost four and a half years in any case – if the Assembly’s first sitting is after August 31, its term expires on January 31 four and a bit years later.

  10. Julie Bishop’s interview with Virginia Trioli is a good example of what Peter Onselen was pointing out about Bishop’s relationship with the “Peter Principle”. She thought she was answering “Dorothy Dixers” in QT, going by her responses here.

    I feel sorry for Glen though. She is somewhat of a heroine to him. GP has been a bit quiet on it too.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24732796-5013871,00.html

    Funny how this one was picked up and printed in the on-line Oz also.

  11. [The new WA parliament could sit for almost four and a half years in any case – if the Assembly’s first sitting is after August 31, its term expires on January 31 four and a bit years later.]

    but of course this would only apply to the Legislative Assembly, the Upper House would still have fixed terms as at present.

  13. Frank @ 3

    I’m pretty sure Barnett wasn’t leader when they opposed it, because as far as I can remember he’s always supported fixed terms. (Well, at least since he’s been leader second time around.)

  15. I don’t know why people bother with these ridiculous Essential Research polls. They’re hideously pro Labor – so much so that one is lead to believe that mostly ALP and GetUP! members signed up to their database.

  16. “I don’t know why people bother with these ridiculous Essential Research polls. They’re hideously pro Labor – so much so that one is lead to believe that mostly ALP and GetUP! members signed up to their database.”

    Maybe we’d listen to you if the polls were in normal territory. But at ALP 55%+ for all polls, we do not.

  17. [
    JULIE BISHOP: Well I am glad Sam has raised that because unemployment is the issue. There is a whole range of things we can do for business to make it easier to employ people and to ensure that people are kept in their employment and that would include tax cuts and tax cuts that help business. Issues like accelerated depreciation to encourage investment. There are a whole range of things we would do there. We would ensure that any workplace relations changes did not destroy jobs and that is of course one of the questions about the Government’s workplace relations laws. It will be judged on what impact that does have on jobs. We would also continue to talk up the economy realistically and not put uncertainty in people’s minds about their ability to continue to grow their businesses and employ people. We would focus on the Reserve Bank’s ability to move monetary policy. Compared with so many other countries we have a lot of room to move. Our cash rate is 5.25 per cent in other countries it is down to 1per cent or even zero interest rates. So we would make sure that monetary policy worked with fiscal policy.]

    A very telling paragraph.

    Their response to the financial crisis would be to cut corporate tax and reintroduce Workchoices.

  20. Wow, I just saw it on the ABC news, Bishop lashed out at Julia exactly like a cat.

    The hate in her eyes. She must resign ! I’m telling you she was a cat in a past life LOL. 🙂

  22. [Their response to the financial crisis would be to cut corporate tax and reintroduce Workchoices.]

    [We would focus on the Reserve Bank’s ability to move monetary policy. Compared with so many other countries we have a lot of room to move. Our cash rate is 5.25 per cent in other countries it is down to 1per cent or even zero interest rates. So we would make sure that monetary policy worked with fiscal policy.]

    And take away the independence of the Reserve Bank by that comment.

  25. [I’m telling you she was a cat in a past life]

    A cat in a party of fans of a carrier of the Bubonic Plague? How can this be?!

  27. Anyone know if politicians are on individual or collective agreements? If Workchoices was still around, would they also have negotiated their own contracts? And with whom?

  29. Amigo Ronnie,

    The person who took this famous photo:

    said the gunmen were shooting at the railway station for about 45mins before any police or military arrived. The “SAS” of India took 9 hours to reach Mumbai and then it took them 3 days to flush out 10 terrorists.

    To blame Pakistan for this attack is like to blame Saudi Arabia for 9/11 because the majority of 9/11 terrorists were from Saudi.

    The Indians should really have a very good look at themselves. Too many Chiefs and not enough Indians in India.

  30. Oz, no they must be under an Award. Hockey said that under a Statutory Contract that he would be on at least double what he was currently paid.

    Pity they pushed that workchoices so hard. he is now on far less than he was on prior to November 24th, 2007.

  31. The Finnigans,

    According to a report I read, there were 60 police on duty at the railway station when the “two” gunmen attacked.

  34. Well the 7:30 Report just reminded me of a fact that should be compulsorily knowledge before anyone’s allowed to support the Liberals on education.

    Last 10 years of spending on education – Every single OECD country up! Australia down.

  35. Mr van Onselen today laughed off suggestions that he was obsessed with Ms Bishop.

    “Not that I am aware. No, no,” he said.

    Asked what his wife thought about the suggestion, he replied, “My wife is closer to my age than Julie, there’s no doubt about that,” he said.

    What Pete really meant is he has “lamb” at home and isn’t interested in “mutton”….. 🙂

  37. It is surprising that MUP’s publisher, Louise Adler, has been so breezily dismissive of suggestions that Liberals and Power be recalled due to its fraudulent content. I mean, a whole effing chapter was plagiarised! No doubt Norma Khouri, Helen Darville and even, gasp, the immortal Ern Malley, will be harassing Adler over the Christmas break in hopes of a new book deal …

  38. wow

    go bush for two weeks and the fiberals are doing more turns than a catherine wheel.

    why has bishop gone feral?was she having a bad hair day?how in hell is she the deputy?who cares

  39. [ Here’s the video of Julie B snarling and clawing at Julia for those of us who won’t watch TV news. ]

    Can’t you just see that on the front pages of tomorrows papers.

    What goes around does come around

  40. Gusface

    Bishop has also told everyone about a charming episode when she was four. Her sister was on the swing and Julie wanted it. So she got an axe and hit the swing until her sister got off. I’m not kidding. That was just before she compared herself to Sharon Stone whilst lying down and followed by her uncrossing and recrossing her legs (she was wearing pants at the time). It’s getting seriously weird.

  41. I still say tip is just sitting there waiting to be drafted.

    This mob are all dead meat swaying in the breeze. They know, they HATE IT but can do nothing about it.

    Almost time for the coward years

  42. Remember how the liberals used to tell us that Latham hates, well nobody in the liberals hates, no!

    I think Bishop has just had her Latham moment, goodbye Julie!

    Get ready guys, The Howard Years is about to start. Two sets of seat belts for Bushfire Bill for the ride ahead!

  43. Well, there you go. Edwina, the chinchilla, (silvery blond with big blue eyes, staring, staring, staring, will attack anything that annoys her, but regularly beaten by the door mat when she can’t extract her claws) has been channelling Julie Bishop! Or, as we have lately been calling the cat, the Shadow Minister for Julie Bishop.
    BTW, Diogenes back on the Morgan thread, thanks for link to the Times article. I do wish Conroy would cease and desist with the stupid filter idea, election promise be damned. If you get new information that means you change your policy and action, surely that’s sufficient? They’ve had to do it with the impact of the GFC, why not the internet filter. I’m now more convinced of $ being spent on informing kids and young people about how the net can be a trap for the unwary, as a better policy.

  44. As this is the last week of Parliament for this year and I do enjoy my fix 😉 …. does anyone know have they posted next years schedule yet? When do we get it back?

  45. Good grief, juliem. You might have to make do with the cricket, like me. Hope the Sith Afrikanns put up a bit more of a fight than did the Niw Zilanders.

  46. “It’s getting seriously weird.”

    You’re being unkind to a legion of Young Liberal men, who, stunned by the Sharon Stone comparison, are even more consumed by fantasy than when mummy and daddy promised them a Peugeot 207!

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